Middlebury Solari: A Proposal

Working together to make healthy local living economies the best investment worldwide.

Working together to make healthy local living economies the best investment worldwide

Only Two Things Stand Between You and Peace,

Prosperity & Sustainability:

1. Buying Local

2. Investing Local


Action

• I suggest we optimize our transactions for our own benefit.

• I recommend we begin to vote with our money.




The Databank


Database


Website


Local Online Market


The Vermont Job Gap Study - Phase 6

The Leaky Bucket:An Analysis of Vermont’s Dependence on Imports

A project of the Peace & Justice Center.

Doug Hoffer, Research Director

Ellen Kahler, Project Director© July, 2000

Opportunities Are Everywhere


The Leaky Bucket Concept


We Import Almost Everything


We Import A Lot


New Money & Jobs


Moving Debt


Moving Mortgages


Moving Investments


Moving Insurance


Moving Tax Money


The Federal Government’s Negative Return on Investment


Money to Be Made


Local Multiplier


What Might the Multiplier Be?

County employment size class Average multiplier Probable range

1,000-2,999 1.7 1.5-1.9

3,000-4,999 1.8 1.5-2.0

5,000-9,999 1.9 1.6-2.1

10,000-19,999 2.0 1.8-2.2

20,000-49,999 2.2 2.0-2.4

50,000 and over 2.2 2.0-2.5

What are Some Reasonable Values for Local Economy Multipliers?

All things else equal, multipliers will tend to be higher where: 1. The community is larger with a more diverse economy. 2. The community is a substantial distance from competitive retail/service centers. 3. The per capita income is low.

Any output multiplier larger than 2.5 should be especially examined! (Mulkey, 1978)


• Steps We Are Undertaking Now– Capitalizing Middlebury Solari with local equity.– Forming a board of local advisors.– A cooperative online store for locally owned businesses in

Middlebury.– A cooperative mail order catalog for locally owned

businesses in Middlebury.– A cooperative department store for locally owned

businesses in Middlebury.– A local venture fund for community investment in

Middlebury.– Fostering formation of 72,000 other Solaris around the

country (particularly in Bristol, Vergennes, and Brandon).– Building a Relational GIS Database of local economic

data.


Benefits• The potential benefits to us for taking this

action:– Safer, Friendlier, More Joyful Communities.

• You’ll know the names of your neighbors.

– Liberty & Justice For All.• In America, ownership is synonymous with control.

– $50,000,000 - $1,000,000,000 of new economic activity in Addison County, annually.• The more strictly we implement this idea, the greater

the potential benefits.


Solari Valuation ModelGreen Cells Are Descriptions ATTENTION! This is a developers version. It is not ready for public use. Note: Please review critically for accuracy andBlue Cells Are In Puts (Variables) Alpha Version 1_02 On 7/27/03 send comments back to Yellow Cells Are Out Puts [email protected] Cells Are EntitiesBlue Cells w/ Gray Are Not Use in this Version

WARNING! CHANGE ONLY THE BLUE CELLS! (Unless you know what you are doing.)RECOMMENDATION! Save a copy of this file before using it. Any change outside the blue cells will affect the formulas!

This survey uses several geographic areas including:The Secondary Market Area (SMA), The Primary Market Area (PMA), and The "Downtown". Imagine a Bull's Eye.

Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo SolariAttributeSecondary Market Area Addison Co. and some of 3 others

Population 37,800 37,800Households 13,400 13,400

Total Revenue 244,300,000Primary Market Area Most of Addison County

Population 23,000 23,000Households 9,400 9,400

Total Revenue 204,300,000Downtown Middlebury Shopping District

Properties 193 193Residences 70 70Commercial 89 89Mixed Use 34 34

Businesses 196 196Assumed Profit Margin 10% 10%Assumed Current P:E 1.5 15 0 13.50

Assumed Multiplier Effect 1.5 2.5 0 1.00Out Put

Total Revenue w/ PMA 125,800,000 183,870,000 125,800,000 183,870,000 13,383 19,561 641,837 938,112 5,470 7,994 0 58,070,000.00Total Revenue w/ SMA 125,800,000 207,655,000 125,800,000 207,655,000 9,388 15,497 641,837 1,059,464 3,328 5,494 0 81,855,000.00

PMA Profit 12,580,000 18,387,000 12,580,000 18,387,000 1,338 1,956 64,184 93,811 547 799 0 5,807,000.00SMA Profit 12,580,000 20,765,500 12,580,000 20,765,500 939 1,550 64,184 105,946 333 549 0 8,185,500.00

PMA Leakage -38% -10% -78,500,000 -18,387,000 -8,351 -1,956 -400,510 -93,811 -3,413 -799 0 0.28SMA Leakage -49% -15% -118,500,000 -31,148,250 -8,843 -2,324 -604,592 -158,920 -2,077 -2,324 0 0.34

Business Valuation 18,870,000 275,805,000 18,870,000 275,805,000 2,007 29,341 96,276 1,407,168 820 11,992 0 256,935,000

Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo Solari Status Quo SolariEffect of Multiplier and Local Currency

Status Quo Solari PMA SMA Status Quo Solari Status Quo SolariLocal Currency Use Rate @ 30% 1.5 1.95 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 113,236,500 122,782,500 159,617,250

0% 1.5 1.500 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 87,105,000 122,782,500 122,782,50010% 1.5 1.650 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 95,815,500 122,782,500 135,060,75020% 1.5 1.800 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 104,526,000 122,782,500 147,339,00030% 1.5 1.950 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 113,236,500 122,782,500 159,617,25040% 1.5 2.100 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 121,947,000 122,782,500 171,895,50050% 1.5 2.250 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 130,657,500 122,782,500 184,173,75060% 1.5 2.400 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 139,368,000 122,782,500 196,452,00070% 1.5 2.550 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 148,078,500 122,782,500 208,730,25080% 1.5 2.700 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 156,789,000 122,782,500 221,008,50090% 1.5 2.850 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 165,499,500 122,782,500 233,286,750

100% 1.5 3.000 58,070,000 81,855,000 87,105,000 174,210,000 122,782,500 245,565,000

Change

PersonDescription

Value Per

The System House Hold Business PersonDescription

The System Household Business Change

New CashflowMultiplier Multiplier Output PMA Multiplier Output SMA


Summary• Specific actions and the key benefits:

– Buy Local and you increase your neighbors’ fortune.

– Invest Local and you increase your own fortune.

– These two actions create a positive feedback system designed to raise local wealth and income.


Working together to make healthy local living economies the best investment worldwide.

Middlebury Solari: A Proposal

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