The impact of climate change on agricultural production in
drought prone areas. The case of Mbire (2000-2014)
By
Michael Tigere (R0723677X)
A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirements of the degree of Masters of Arts in Development
studies of the Midlands State University
Supervisor MS E NCIIZAH
June 2015
1
Approval formThe undersigned certify that they have supervised
the student Michael Tigere dissertation entitled: The impact of
climate change on agricultural production in drought prone areas.
The case of Mbire 2000-2014 submitted in Partial fulfilment of the
requirements of the Masters of Arts in Development Studies (MADS)
at Midlands State University.
. SUPERVISORDATE
. CHAIRPERSONDATE
...EXTERNAL EXAMINERDATE
DeclarationI, Michael Tigere, declare that the thesis hereby
submitted for the degree of Master of Arts (MA) at the Midlands
State University is my work and has not been previously submitted
to another University.
Signature:
Date
Place: Midlands State University
DedicationFirst and foremost I dedicate this dissertation to my
Lord and savior Jesus Christ who chose me in my mothers womb and
appointed me into this field .I appreciate the anointing that he
deposited upon my life that has enabled me to complete this work, I
further appreciate the inspiration from the Holy Spirit who enabled
me to persevere through the good and the bad times, the hunger and
those days of great trial and tribulation.
PSMALS 91
AcknowledgementsFirstly I would like to thank the Almighty God
who guided me in the writing of this masters dissertation. I also
want to extend my profound gratitude to MRS E NCIIZAH who was my
supervisor for her guidance and continuous encouragement in the
writing of this dissertation. My appreciation also extends to my
family and friends for their unwavering support, may the Lord bless
you. I would like to thank Mbire district council, AGRITEX
officers, ward officers, meteorological department for their
information and cooperation.
Acronyms
DA.District
AdministratorEEA........................................................................................European
Environmental AgencyFEWSNET..Famine Early Warning Systems
NetworkGHF.............................................................................................................Global
Human
FundIFAD..............................................................International
Fund for Agricultural
DevelopmentIPCC.......................................................International
Governmental Panel on Climate
ChangeMDG.........................................................................................Millennium
Development
GoalsNGOs.......................................................................................Non
Governmental
OrganisationUNEP.........................................................................United
Nations Environmental ProtectionUNFCCCUnited Nations framework
Convention on Climate Change USAID.United States Agency for
International
DevelopmentWMA....................................................................................World
Meteorological
AssociationWRI......................................................................................................World
Resource Institute
AbstractClimate change and variability are the major constraints
to agricultural production in drought prone areas. Small holder
farmers are facing negative effects due to the changes of the
weather patterns in Mbire. Prolonged hot and dry temperatures have
affected the growth of plants and have resulted in low production.
Climate change has led to, death of livestock, bush fires, soil
erosion, pest increase, poor plant germination, deterioration of
infrastructure and crop production. Livestock and crops have failed
to quickly adapt to these harsh climatic conditions which has
negative effects on the overall food security plans for the nation
at large. Adaptation methods have significantly contributed to the
reduction of negative impacts of climate change and other changing
socio-economic conditions. Due to the absence of proper extension
services to farmers, many farmers have kept up with their
traditional farming practices.
Table of ContentsApproval
formiDeclarationiiDedicationiiiAcknowledgementsivAcronymsvAbstractviChapter
One: The problem and its setting2Introduction2Background to the
study2Statement of problem12Justification of
study13Objectives14Limitations of the study14Ethical
Considerations15Conceptual framework17Chapter Two: Literature
review19Introduction19Climate change trends19Concern about climate
change22Impact of climate change of livelihoods26Climate change
adaptation33Climate change in Zimbabwe36Chapter Three: Research
Methodology47Study Population47Research Design49Data
collection49Chapter four - Data Presentation and
Analysis56Introduction56Agricultural vulnerability in Mbire
District56Soil60Health61Diseases and pests66Livestock67Climate
change perceptions70Deforestation and climate change72Effects of
deforestation73Food insecurity75Climate adaptation and agricultural
development76Chapter Five: Conclusion and
Recommendations93Recommendations96
Chapter One: The problem and its settingIntroductionThis is an
introductory chapter, highlighting the background of study,
description of study area, aim of study, problem statement,
justification of study, research objectives, delimitations and
limitations of the study. Theoretical framework and ethical
considerations will also be highlighted in this chapter.
Background to the studyAgricultural production is the most
sensitive phenomena to climate because it depends on natural heat
for energy and water, which are both climate-related variables.
According to Murungweni (2009) approximately seventy percent (70%)
of Africans or close to 700 million people rely on farming as a
means for living, more than 95% of it is rain fed. Changing weather
patterns due to climate change is therefore expected to decrease
agricultural yields in drought prone areas by as much as 50 per
cent as early as 2020 (Hulme, 2006). Changing weather patterns
reinforces the need for the region to consider long-term
constraints that any future climate changes may place on
agriculture (Eriaksen , 2007).
Climate change affects all countries in the world. Extreme
weather conditions like drought and floods have become more intense
and more frequent with far reaching destructive effects on the
livelihoods of people especially those in developing countries and
more so, those engaging in climate sensitive economic activities
such as agriculture. All categories of agricultural workers are
therefore affected. Droughts and floods are destroying crops and
harvest of farmers in developing countries leaving them in a
miserable situation and threatening their livelihood. As in most of
the African countries, the majority of the workforce in Zimbabwe
(almost 60%) is working in the agricultural sector but contributes
just a little percentage to the national GDP (Ibid). Most of the
farmers are living in abject poverty, struggling with life and just
managing to survive by scraping for a living through multiple
informal economic activities because the unpredictable nature of
the weather pattern has forced them to seek other new forms of
making a living. These of course mean an immense toll on the
livelihoods of families, especially those in the rural areas.
Global climate change is one of the most critical challenges
facing the international community today. Climate change is
threatening to undo decades of development efforts due to its
negative impacts on agriculture, health, environment, roads, and
buildings especially in developing countries (GoU, 2007; IPCC,
2007; Mendelssohn et al., 2006; Stern, 2007). From a food security
perspective, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is arguably the most
vulnerable region to many adverse effects of climate change due to
a very high reliance on rain fed agriculture for basic food
security, economic growth and entrenched poverty (Dixon et al.,
2001; IPCC, 2007; Cooper et al., 2008). Climate change has become a
huge global concern posing many threats in most economic sectors
around the world.
Zimbabwe is a landlocked country in southern Africa, lying
between latitudes 15 and 23 south of the Equator and longitudes 25
and 34 East of the Greenwich Meridian. Its area is 390,757 square
kilometers (Ibid). The country is bordered by Mozambique to the
East, South Africa to the South, Botswana to the West and Zambia to
the North and North-west. Zimbabwe has two major perenial rivers
that is, the Zambezi River to the north and the Limpopo River to
the south, and these two rivers form Zimbabwes borders with Zambia
and South Africa, respectively (Knox, 2012). In Zimbabwe, there are
three broad relief regions which are generally recognized on the
basis of elevation that is the Low-veld (below 900m), the
Middle-veld (9001200m) and the Highveld (12002000m) (Ibid).
Moreover, a slender belt of mountains (20002400 m), the Eastern
Highlands that runs from the north to south along the eastern
border with Mozambique and the deep gap of the Zambezi River Valley
forms the border line with Zambia in the northwest (Ibid). The
climate is largely influenced by relief, as the rainfall increases
with altitude. The average/mean annual rainfall varies from below
400mm in the extreme south of the Low-veld to above 2000mm on
isolated mountain peaks in the Eastern Districts. In the
middleveld, rainfall ranges from 500mm to 700 mm and that of the
Highveld from 800mm to 1000 mm (Ibid).
In Zimbabwe the pattern of rainfall is distinctly seasonal, with
approximately 90% falling in 6 months from the first of October to
the end of March. Rainfall pattern is in the form of intense
tropical downpours and is characterized by its extreme variability
in both time and space (Salick, 2007). In Zimbabwe, three seasons
can be distinguished that is a hot and dry spring from
mid-September to the onset of the rains, a hot but moist summer
covering the rainy season, and a dry winter period consisting of
cool nights and warm cloudless days lasting from April to
September. The sandy, relatively infertile soils that cover some
two-thirds of the country constitute the main soil type in the
communal areas. Isolated areas of heavier more fertile soils occur
throughout the country, the largest pockets being on the Highveld.
Fertile irrigable basaltic vertisoils occur extensively in the
southern Lowveld (Takahashi K. 2007).
Agricultural production in Zimbabwe is diverse as compared with
many tropical countries. Maize, Cotton, Tobacco and sugar dominate
crop production, with groundnuts, sorghum, wheat, coffee, tea,
citrus, coffee and vegetables making significantly smaller monetary
contributions (Salick, J. and Byg, A. 2007). Maize dominates crop
production, covering more land than all other crops (approx 1.5
million hectares). Tobacco is increasing amongst the commercial and
subsistence farmers; tobacco production has steadily increased
since 1980. Small scale communal farmers prefer burley tobacco
because it requires less rigorous curing. Rainfed cotton grown in
the central and northern parts of the country and under irrigation
in the Lowveld supplies the needs of the local textile industry and
provides 70% excess for export (Ibid). Sorghum, maize and
vegetables are the principal subsistence crops. Agriculture
production for family consumption remains paramount in the majority
of peasant farmers in drought prone areas. Cotton, sunflowers and
groundnuts are the major cash crops for communal farmers. Peasant
farmers now produce half the total cotton crop, 75% of the
sunflower and 80% of the sorghum. Coffee has been promoted as a
peasant crop in the Eastern Highlands but production remains small
(Ibid).
Zimbabwes economy is dominated by agriculture and small holder
farming sector. Agricultural sector in Zimbabwe provides employment
and livelihoods for about 70% of the population, including 30% of
formal employment, and accounts for about 4050% of the countrys
total export revenues (Odenkule, 2006). Approximately
three-quarters of the population in Zimbabwe live in the rural
smallholder farming sector and depend on agriculture for their
livelihoods). Moreover, the agricultural sector contributes about
17% to the countrys GDP (FAO 2005). Agriculture is also an
important source of raw materials, providing about 60% of raw
materials for the manufacturing sector in the country (Bautista,
2002).Southern Africa has been severely affected by droughts since
the 1990s, some areas of southern Zimbabwe and south-eastern
Botswana have received low rainfall amounts as low as 10% of the
average value during the rainy season ( Kandji 2006). In East
Africa some areas have experienced severe impact in terms of the
availability of water resources, food and agricultural security
resulting from increased temperatures and decline in rainfall
(Hulme, 2001). In Western Africa, Odekunle (2006) has attributed
famine and food insecurity in the savanna regions of Nigeria to
crop failure due to insufficient and untimely rainfall.
There is increased concern in Southern Africa regarding the
effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Low
rainfall and increasing temperatures have had a negative and severe
impact on food security and agricultural production (Parry, 2009).
Evidence from scientists has revealed that average annual
temperature has increased significantly and it is expected to
further increase at a rate of 0.05C per decade, while rainfall has
been unpredictable, decreasing on average at a rate of 5 to 10% per
annum, with annual anomalies mostly below normal (Kurukulasuriya
2006). Climate changes are expected to have serious social and
economic impacts, particularly on agricultural productivity and on
rural farmers who rely on climate-sensitive economic activities,
such as rain-fed agriculture (Mannak, 2009).
Low levels of advanced technology and limited information on
climate change exacerbates or worsens farmers inability to adapt to
climate change (Parry 2007).Farmers in Africa perceive that there
is an increase in temperature and a decline in rainfall. Many
farmers have done little to adapt to these changing circumstances.
Studies which have been carried out on African farmers responses to
climate change suggests that there is limited information about
climate change and lack of access to institutions dealing with
climate change strongly impede farmers ability to adapt to such
climate changes and this will eventually lead to low agricultural
production (Eyzaguirre & Iwanaga, 2009)
Why is Climate Change a Concern in AgricultureNumerous factors
shape and drive the agricultural sector which range from market
fluctuations, changes in domestic and international agricultural
policies (such as the form and extent of subsidies, incentives,
tariffs, credit facilities, and insurance), management practices,
terms of trade, the type and availability of technology and
extension, land-use regulations and biophysical characteristics
(availability of water resources, soil quality, carrying capacity,
and pests and diseases) are among the set of primary influences (S
Gukurume, 2010). Given its inherent link to natural resources,
agricultural production is also at the mercy of uncertainties
driven by climate variation, including extreme events such as
flooding and drought. Over the last decade or so, climate change
(in terms of long-term changes in mean temperature or precipitation
normals, as well as an increased frequency of extreme climate
effects) has gradually been recognized as an additional factor
which, with other conventional pressures, will have a significant
weight on the form, scale, and spatial and temporal impact on
agricultural productivity (Hulme, 2006).
The general consensus to emerge from the literature is that in
the absence of adequate response strategies to long-term climate
change as well as to climate variability, diverse and
region-specific impacts will become more apparent. Some impacts are
expected to be adverse; others, favourable (Takahashi, 2007). At
times, impacts will be slow to unfold, enabling local farmers and
national governments time to respond. The distribution of impacts
will vary as both the ability to respond to impacts and resources
with which to do so vary across nations. In other cases, impacts
will be unexpected, and appropriate responses may not easily be
known or implemented in advance. Impacts of climate variability and
change on the agricultural sector are projected to steadily
manifest directly from changes in land and water regimes, the
likely primary conduits of change (Ibid). Changes in the frequency
and intensity of droughts, flooding, and storm damage are expected.
Climate change is expected to result in long-term water and other
resource shortages, worsening soil conditions, drought and
desertification,, sea-level rise disease and pest outbreaks on
crops and livestock (Ibid). Vulnerable areas are expected to
experience losses in agricultural productivity primarily due to
reductions in crop yields (Rosenzweig et al, 2002). Increasing use
of marginal land for agriculture (especially among smallholder
farmers) is anticipated as the availability and productivity
potential of land begins to decline.
Zimbabwe has a sub-tropical climate with four seasons; cool
season from mid-May to August, hot season from September to
mid-November, the main rainy season running from mid-November to
mid- March and the post rainy season from mid-March to mid-May. The
mean monthly temperature varies from 15oC in July to 24oC in
November whereas the mean annual temperature varies from 18oC on
the Highveld to 23oC in the Lowveldt (Unganai, 2006). The lowest
minimum temperatures (7oC) are recorded in June or July and the
highest maximum temperatures (29oC) in October, or if the rains are
delayed, in November. The climate is moderated by the altitude with
the Eastern Highlands enjoying cooler temperature compared to the
low lying areas of the Lowveld. Zimbabwe is generally a semi-arid
country with low annual rainfall reliability. The average annual
rainfall is 650 mm but geographically it ranges from around 350 to
450 mm per year in the Southern Lowveld to 1,000 mm per year in the
Eastern Highlands (Ibid). The most farmed crops in Mbire are small
grains, maize, sugar beans and soya beans. The farmers also engage
in animal rearing and the common ones being cows, goats, pigs and
poultry. Due to the increasing demand for food and lack of jobs or
any viable economic activities that generate income for rural
dwellers, it is now necessary for rural peasant farmers to embark
on small scale farming as a means of filling the food demand and
supply gap and providing income for other households requirements.
In addition, the practice of rural peasant agriculture has
continued to increase in recent years with the structural
adjustment of the Zimbabwean economy around 1986. The rise in food
price, un- employment and inflation brought by the structural
adjustment (World Bank, 1990) and the decline in the average real
income of both rural and urban households has compelled many rural
dwellers to embark on small scale farming to put food on the table
and also in some cases to even provide for family and relatives
that dwell in the urban areas.
However, efforts of these small scale farmers are being weakened
by climate change. Recent reports produced by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2000, 2007, 2012) concluded that
not only green-house gas emissions are already beginning to change
the global climates but also that Africa will experience increased
water stress, decreased yields from rain-fed agriculture, increased
food insecurity and malnutrition, sea- level rise, and an increase
in arid and semi-arid land as a result of the climate change
process.
Agriculture and its importance in ZimbabweAgriculture is a very
important sector not only in Zimbabwe but also in the entire
southern African, in terms of subsistence, contribution to GDP is
about 35 percent, employment 70-80 percent of the total labour
force and foreign exchange earnings about 30 percent (Abalu and
Hassan, 1998). It also remains the main source of livelihoods for
most rural communities in the region. To the Zimbabwean economy,
the agricultural sector plays an important role through its impact
on overall economic growth, households income generation, and food
security. This sector is, however, dualistic, comprising of large
and small-scale sectors. The large-scale sector, until recently,
used to be well resourced and predominantly located in high
agricultural and economic potential areas of the country (Tekere
and Hurungo, 2003). On the other hand, the smallholder farmers are
characterized by both marginality and remoteness in that most of
them are located in areas that experience low and highly variable
rainfall, high temperatures, have poor soils.
Mbire Mbire district is located in region four, which
traditionally receives very little rainfall. It is one of the
districts that have been greatly affected by climate change.
Climate change in Mbire is evidenced by droughts and floods.
Previously first rains well-known locally as the gukurahundi or
bumharutsva used to be received in late September or early October.
Nowadays however, Mbire community receives rainfall, that is if
they receive any rainfall at all around December.
As a result of climate change, the population in Mbire can no
longer rely on farming as a source of livelihood as they used to do
in the past. Farming is increasingly becoming a very unreliable
source of earning a living and means to adapt to climate change are
being explored which have ranged from depopulation in the area due
to a mass exodus of farmers from areas such as Mbire, Dande among
others in that region to greener pastures. Former farmers in Mbire
have also been reported to have resorted to alluvial mining, cross
border trading, small scale trading and money lending as ways to
earn a living since agricultural production has proved to be a
thorn in the flesh for most of them.
The change in climate in the past ten years has also created a
host of other problems for the inhabitants of Mbire which include a
sharp increase in Malaria and sleeping sickness epidemics. This has
made the Mbire a no go area not only for farmers but also for
government workers such as teachers and nurses which has an overall
impact of affecting the entire development scope of the area. Thus,
climate change has not only affected agricultural productivity in
Mbire but it has affected other areas of development in this
region.
Mbire is located in a low-lying and semi-arid region which
receives low annual rainfalls of about 300mm per annum. This is
confirmed by the Food and Agricultural Organization, Zimbabwe,
which averred that in semi-arid Zimbabwe, water is by far a greater
constraint than land (FAO, 2005). Receiving low rainfall and
experiencing high temperatures, Mbire is one of the most vulnerable
regions to climate change in Zimbabwe. This in itself means that
the agriculture sector in the aforementioned area is quite
vulnerable with marginally productive areas probably shifting to
non-agricultural use.Statement of problemThe impact of Climate
change in Zimbabwes agricultural sector has led to changing
rainfall patterns, temperature increases and more extreme weather
patterns such as droughts and floods. Longer and more frequent
droughts have substantially led to the decrease in crop yields and
this has negatively impacted on overall food production in the
country. This Impact of climate change from the late 90s has
created a vicious cycle of hunger pestilence and social misery
especially for the inhabitants in drought prone areas.
This above scenario has not only affected commercial farmers but
also subsistence farmers to the extent that most farmers are
resorting to other means of survival besides agriculture and areas
such as Mbire are becoming more and more depopulated as this
population exodus is shifting to areas with adequate rainfall. If
one compares the agricultural outputs of the mid 90s one can
discover that bumper harvests were received even in these places.
Starting from the early 2000 these areas have recorded high levels
of droughts and have been living from NGO handouts. More so, it has
been known even during the advent of colonialism that Zimbabwe only
experienced droughts every 10 year period but currently droughts
have been recorded in these areas continuously.
However, one is forced to wonder that the continuation of
droughts and famine in these areas is not only a result of climate
change but also a product of other factors such as the early 2000
land reform programme, economic limbo in the country, inexperienced
farmers, economic sanctions, lack of agricultural resources to name
but a few. Hence there is need to investigate the role of climate
change along with other factors so as to come up with a possible
panancea to the decrease in agricultural production in drought
prone areas such as MbireJustification of studyThe inhabitants will
benefit from the information from the research since it will assist
policy makers to come up with new coping strategies to handle the
adverse effects of climate change in drought prone areas such as
Mbire and others. In Mbire, this research has not been conducted
yet hence the research will help academias, researchers and policy
makers. There is consensus that climate is changing and that many
sectors including agriculture will be affected under future
climates.
In Africa negative impacts are mostly expected and rural
communities in this region are the most vulnerable. It is also
envisaged that current coping strategies against climatic
variability which the farmers are employing may not offset the
impacts of future climates. The afore-stated circumstances call for
action to be taken if agriculture is to continue to play its
pivotal role of supporting national economies in Africa and
ensuring household food security across the regions. Agriculture is
particularly important to the rural communities as they rely on
animal and crop production for their livelihoods.
Research aimThe research is mainly focused on showing the impact
of climate change on agricultural productivity in drought prone
areas focusing on Mbire as a case study.
ObjectivesThe study aims to: Show the impact of climate change
on food security in Mbire Identify and assess the coping mechanisms
placed by individual households and the community to cope up with
climate change Come up with possible solutions to deal with climate
changeResearch Questions What are the best mechanisms that can be
implicated to resolve climate change effects in Mbire? To what
extent has climate change affected the agricultural output in
Mbire? How does climate change affect agricultural production?
Which farming methods are being used to cope up with climate
change? How effective are the methods which are being used to cope
up with climate changes?Limitations of the study Accessibility of
the area: its remote Information/data concerning meteorological
data which has to deal to Mbire is hard to come by. Inhabitants in
Mbire are still a bit traditional so its quite difficult for them
to accept strangers/researchers. They would think you are spying on
them or a political henchman sent to investigate them concerning
their loyalty to the government. As a result, they gave responses
that did not present the government in any negative position for
fear that they would lose their land.
However, the researcher had to come up with ways to combat these
difficulties such as getting meteorological data from the centers
surrounding Mbire which have similar climatic conditions.
Concerning the suspicious responses of the inhabitants the
researcher had to first seek permission from local authorities such
as politicians, chiefs and village heads and get documents stating
the mission of the researcher. This went a long way in dealing with
negative stereotypes which may try to withhold precious information
on the grounds of authenticity and suspicion of the research.
DelimitationsThe research was conducted in Mbire district,
Mashonaland Central Province of Zimbabwe. In this research, the
researcher investigated the impact of climate change on
agricultural productivity in Mbire.
Ethical ConsiderationsEthical values of honesty, safeguard of
privacy and well-versed agreement were used by the researcher in a
bid to legalize the research. In special cases pseudo names were
used by the researcher as a way of protecting peoples identities, a
case in point, the researcher used pseudo names through the use of
alphabetical letters. This also greatly removed the fear of
respondents to partake in the interviews and questionnaires by so
doing the respondents identities were protected
Honesty - The researcher honestly reported data, results,
methods and procedures. The researcher did not fabricate, falsify,
or misrepresent data.
Objectivity - The researcher strived to avoid bias in carrying
out the research, data analysis, data interpretation and other
aspects of research where objectivity is expected or required
Integrity - The researcher kept promises and agreements; acted
with sincerity; strived for consistency of thought and action.
Carefulness - The researcher avoided careless errors and
negligence. Records of research activities such as data collection
will be kept safe.
Openness - The researcher shared data, results, ideas, tools,
resources.
Confidentiality - Protection of confidential communications,
such as papers, personnel records and patient records as has been
highlighted above.
Informed Consent - Respondents were not be forced to participate
in the research but they all volunteered. The researcher will also
seek authority from the district administrator to carry out the
research in Mbire
Conceptual frameworkIn this study, micro climates referred to
the development of permanent weather patterns in small geographical
regions as a result of adverse human activities which have become
distinct from the general climatic conditions of the entire region.
According to Iwanaga (2009) micro climates is a local atmospheric
zone where the climate differs from the surrounding area. In this
study climate change refers to changes in the state of the climate
that can be identified by changes in the mean or the variability of
its properties, and that persist for an extended period, typically
decades, or longer" (Ibid). Climate change may be due to natural
internal processes or external forces or persistent anthropogenic
changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
Climate variability on the other hand, refers to variations in
the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations,
the occurrence of extremes) of the climate on all spatial and
temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC,
2007). The main driver of climate change is global warming and the
IPCC in its fourth assessment report states that, Warming of the
climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by observed increases in
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice as well as rising global average sea level.
Theoretical frameworkThe theoretical framework of this study is
the human forcings theory propounded by Joseph Bast (2010). This
theory espouses that mankind is the greatest impact on climate and
is responsible for the transformation of the Earths surface by
clearing forests, irrigating deserts, and building cities. This
theory was used to explain climate change in Mbire as a result of
human activities that have led to droughts in the region. Roger
Pielke, Sr., a climatologist at the University of Colorado supports
the human forcings theory, he asserts that although the natural
causes of climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important,
the human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of
first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to, the
human input of carbon dioxide .
According to Joseph Bast's (2010) deforestation theory of human
activities whereby he posited that, the removing of trees by
burning, a common practice in developing countries especially rural
areas like Mbire, releases CO2 into the atmosphere and prevents
forests from sequestering carbon in the future. The pasture or crop
land that replaces the forest lacks the shade created by a forest
canopy and tends to be warmer. The IPCC has estimated that between
one-quarter and one-third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are due to
deforestation, not the burning of fossil fuels, though this
estimate has been challenged as being too high.This situation can
be attested in Mbire, since the current environmental reports of
the area indicate that deforestation has been a menace that has
ravaged the entire landscape changing the weather patterns,
creating droughts or dry spells in the region and reducing the
landscape to a mere desert. This has been caused by human
activities such as cutting firewood, building cattle perns, tobacco
toasting, constructing houses among other activities. These
activities have shifted the climatic patterns of the region
resulting in the depreciation of agricultural produce forcing
farmers to embark on a mass exodus southwards to Centenary which
still has more favourable weather patterns for agricultural
activities.
This theory of human input in changing weather patterns will be
used in this research as it is the most plausible explanation
concerning the situation in drought prone MbireChapter Two:
Literature reviewIntroductionThis chapter will survey both local
and international literature on climate change especially on issues
pertaining to how climate change has positively and negatively
affected agricultural productivity. This area of climate change has
been covered by various international scholars in their regions but
very little literature on local climate change is available. Many
academias have written about how climate change is affecting
development on a broader basis. Other scholars have covered about
how climate change affects livelihoods and coping mechanisms to
climate change. Literature reviewed covered a broad spectrum of
aspects such as climate change and variability at global, regional
and micro-scales. Literature review also covered aspects of how
climate change affects agricultural productivity, coping mechanism,
adaptation to climate variability and change.
Climate change trends
Climate change is among the most striking environmental
challenges affecting the earth (Weart, 2004). Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change as change in
climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a
result of human activity. According to the UNFCCC climate change
refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or
indirectly to individual activities that alter the composition of
global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods(Brown, 2004) .
Climate change implies much more than how warm or cool global
temperatures are. Global warming can be defined as an increase in
global temperatures, climate change is defined by many factors such
as temperature, air pressure, rainfall, wind and humidity and
severe weather events (Kandji, 2006). Adger identifiedreasons which
are for concern about climate change and showed schematically how
their seriousness would increase with global mean temperature
change. Some of the reasons outlined by Adger include, damage to
ecosystems and their respective services upon which economies and
human survival survive; the increasing rate and severity of extreme
climatic and other natural events; the uneven distribution of
climate change impacts, whereby low income populations, mostly the
rural, who make up the bulk or the majority of the population in
less developed countries are the most affected and vulnerable to
climate change vagaries (Archer, 2010). Increased global mean
temperature of 2C above 1990 levels or less would harm several such
ecosystems, frequency and magnitude of many extreme climate-related
events will increase with a temperature increase of less than 2C
above 1990 levels (Adger, 2005).
According to the IPCC, the average temperature of the earths
surface has risen by 0.75C since the late 1800s and it is likely to
increase by1.8C to 4C by the year 2100 if no action is taken. It is
a fast and intense change in geological time, Even if it only gets
another 1.8C hotter, it would be a larger increase in temperature
than any century-long trend in the last 10,000 years (Christensen,
2007). Average cold temperatures have increased at almost double
the global average rate in the past 100 years. According to Fischer
global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.3 to 2.3mm
per year during 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 2.4 to
3.8 mm per year from 1993 to 2003. Decreases in glaciers and ice
caps have contributed to about 28 percent of sea level rise and
losses from the polar ice sheets (Fischer, 2005)). Higher
temperatures cause ocean volume to expand, as the bright white of
ice and snow give way to dark sea green, less and less rays from
the sun are reflected back into space, intensifying the heating
(IPCC, 2007). The above mentioned physical changes are among key
examples of potential vicious cycles identified by scientists that
might result in global climate reaching at a rate beyond human
imagination.
Increased consumption of fossil fuels for power in the economies
of the world, the fact that almost all modern human endeavours
produce carbon dioxide will result in climate change extremely
complex and intricately tied up in other difficult issues such as
poverty, population growth and economic development (Yohe and
Schlesinger, 2002). Overwhelming evidence of anthropogenic climate
change risks and associated implications on the global community
resulted in the United Nations crafting the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Creation of the
convention was fast, especially one on such a vastly complex issue
and this was in response to a clear message that global warming was
happening and something had to be done about it (Schneider, 2007).
In Sub-Saharan Africa climate change trends being experienced, have
resulted in Chishakwe observing that the region has been
experiencing a warming trend over the past few decades. This is
consistent with the global trend of temperature rise in the 1970s,
1980s and the 1990s. Temperatures in the sub-Saharan region have
risen by over 0.50 C over the last 100 years (Smith, 2001). Between
1950 -2000, Namibia experienced warming at a rate of 0.0230 C per
year (Government of Namibia, 2002). The Indian Ocean has also
warmed more than 10 C since 1950. During this period, the region
has also experienced a downward trend in rainfall (National Center
for Atmospheric Research, 2005).Moreover, according to Glantz this
can been characterized by belownormal rainfalls and frequent
droughts for instance between 1988 and 1992 the subregion
experienced over 15 drought events (Glantz, 1997). In sub-Saharan
Africa, where there is a heavy reliance on natural resources for
livelihoods, 61 percent of the population lives in ecologically
marginalised and vulnerable areas characterized by a high degree of
climatic change and sensitivity, these areas have a low degree of
resilience (UNEP, 2002).
According to Calder, with reference to Zimbabwe there is
evidence in the changing patterns of rainfall or rainfall
variability that ranges between 30 and 35 percent, implying that
most livelihoods in dry-land (or semi-arid) areas in are not only
precarious but often unsustainable since they are already at the
edge of subsistence (Calder, 2003). In the early 1990s rainfall in
the region was 20 percent lower than that of the 1970s, with
significant droughts in the 1980s, early 1990s and in 2002
(Chagutah, 2010). Ragab asserts that sub-Saharan Africas climate
will be hotter and drier in the future than it is today; Ragab
emphasizes that by 2050 in Sub-Saharan Africa the average annual
temperature is likely to increase by between 1.5 and 2.50C for
countries in the Southern end of the subregion if contrasted to the
1961 1990 average (Ragab, 2006). Calder observed that monsoons
across southern Africa could be 1020 percent drier than the 1950
1999 average. Annual regional precipitation or rainfall is expected
to drop by 10 percent, with greater reductions in the northern part
of the subregion than in the southern part (Ziervogel and Calder,
2003).
Concern about climate changeClimate change in Mbire has got
direct impacts on the biophysical world, which in turn happens to
be the vital asset for human survival and economics. According to
Thomas the state of the biophysical environment determines the
productivity and availability of ecosystem services and goods to
the human environment, livelihoods and wellbeing, among the
biophysical elements affected by climate change is amount of
rainfall received and its temporal distribution (Thomas, 2008). In
the past decades in Mbire there have been noteworthy changes in
rainfall patterns. More rains are received in some parts of the
regions in Zimbabwe such as region 1 and 2 (Ziervogel and Calder,
2003). Globally areas affected by droughts or which are receiving
low rainfalls have increased since the 1970s; this has resulted in
increased prevalence and severity of the extremes of famine and
food insecurity in some regions and drought in others. Extreme
floods and droughts constitute a big risk to the economies,
livelihoods, food security, health and general well being of the
affected regions and communities. Globally floods have impacted
negatively of the livelihoods of the people, floods in North
America, Australia and Europe have become uncharacteristically more
frequent and more disastrous in the past decade than ever before
(Ibid).
According to IPCC (2007), in spite of the uncertainties
associated with climate change, it is anticipated that warming will
differ by region and be accompanied by significant changes in
rainfall, sea level rise and changes in the frequency and intensity
of some extreme events. In sub-Saharan countries such as Zimbabwe
average annual temperatures have risen steadily over the past
decades and a higher increase is predicted for the years to come
(IUFRO, 2010). Current climate models project an increase in the
mean temperature to rise from 3 to 4 _C across the continent by the
end of this century, which would be roughly 1.5 times the global
average increase. Climate change effects in Mbire have eventually
exposed many people to physical, mental, and health risks
especially in the district leading to spreading of diseases such as
malaria which is influenced by climatic conditions, particularly
humidity, rainfall, and temperature (Sueur, 2003).
Climate change directly affects agricultural production, as
agriculture sector is inherently sensitive to climate conditions
and is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the risks and impact
of global climate change (Parry et al., 1999). According to UNEP
(2008) humanity is living beyond its environmental means and
running up ecological debts that future generations will be unable
to repay as a result of global climate change. Agricultural
production remains the main source of livelihood for rural
communities in Africa, providing employment to more than 60 percent
of the population and contributing about 30 percent of gross
domestic product (Nhemachena & Hassan, 2007). Southern Africa
is expected to experience increases in temperature and declining
rainfall patterns as well as increased frequency of extreme climate
events (such as droughts and floods) as a results of climate change
(Nhemachena, 2008).
According to Kgakatsi (2006) climate change can be regarded as
the silent enemy likely to affect already high risk and stressed
agro ecosystems as the effects of climate change are not
immediately visible. Limpopo province is particular vulnerable to
climate variability and change as agricultural production depends
on climatic conditions and largely on the quality of the rainy
season. According to Letsatsi Duba (2009) climate change in Mbire
is taking place in the context of other developmental stresses,
notably poverty, unemployment and food insecurity which it is
feared that it will exceed the limits of adaptation in other parts
of the province. It is thus important to develop and implement
effective adaptation measures so that climate-related risks and
opportunities might support development objectives within
provincial policy decision making processes (Kgakatsi, 2006).
Climate change affects agriculture in several ways, one of which
is its direct impact on crop productivity (Ziervogel et al. 2006)
and as a consequence hindering the prospects of achieving some of
the Millennium Development Goals (MDG): to eradicate poverty and
hunger; health improvement and sustainability (UNDP 2010). Several
factors have contributed to the deepening poverty and
underdevelopment. These include the difficulty in coping with
climate variability in a continent subjected to frequent droughts,
floods, extreme high temperatures and land degradation. In
addition, various socioeconomic, demographic, political,
institutional, and policy trends have limited the abilities to
adapt to climatic variations (Rosenweig and Hillel 1998; Adger et
al. 2007)
United Nations reports in Africa have shown that malaria
constitutes 23% to 37% of child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (Snow,
2003). Remote areas which are vulnerable have no refrigeration
facilities thus the incidence of foodborne diseases is likely to
increase significantly during higher temperature periods (Bartlett,
2008). Furthermore, too much rainfall in the community can
transport faecal contaminants from shallow latrines into waterways
ending up in drinking water supplies hence this can lead to the
spread of various waterborne diseases. Zimbabwean economy is mainly
agrarian; agriculture and the utilization of natural resources
remain the driving force of the country and local economic
development. Rural populations especially those in drought prone
areas such as Mbire earn a living from the ecosystem goods and
services for basic resources, income generation and employment. In
Mbire the adverse effects of climate change conditions to which the
country is exposed openly has an effect on the ecosystem goods and
services, thereby significantly having an impact on the economic,
social, and environmental dimensions of the national sustainable
development. In Mbire increased severity and frequency of droughts
events have become a major cause for concern. Africa has seen a
growing proportion of the population becoming food and
water-insecure especially given the fact that more than 70% of the
population in the in sub-Saharan region depends on rain fed
agriculture (Ziervogel and Calder, 2003). Impact of climate change
of livelihoodsIn rural areas climate change has affected rural
livelihoods, people of the world have evolved ways of earning
livelihoods and supplying their needs for food, water, shelter and
other goods and services that are adapted to benefit from the
climates in which they live (Leary, 2007). Climate is variable,
changeable and deviations that are too far from the norm can be
disruptive or even hazardous. In Mbire small scale farmers are
vulnerable to the unprecedented climate variabilities and changes
taking place from the past years and today, though to varying
degrees or extent (Tollatin, 2004). Changes in the climate in the
district have exposed communities particularly small scale farmers
to new and unfamiliar conditions. In Zimbabwe some farmers have
taken advantage of the changes in climate thus a number of farmers
are now facing increased vulnerability, particularly in the
developing world (Moyo, 20102).
Climate change is affecting the prospects for sustainable
development in many nations including Zimbabwe. Sustainable
development is increasingly understood to encompass economic,
social and environmental sustainability. Some of the key concepts
for sustainable development are quality of life and survivability
(Ayers, 2011). Impact of climate change on biodiversity may result
in reducing the options for economic growth and development
available to the present and future generations (Rajasree, 2010).
Loss of biodiversity can also have an impact on the functioning and
resilience thus the ability to adapt to change and handle stress of
both natural and human systems (Biggs, 2004). Climate change
effects on biodiversity in Mbire district have led to increased
costs caused by droughts and also mudslides, fire and pests. Loss
of the ecosystem such as nutrient cycling, water supply and
pollination has adversely impact on human welfare and their
livelihoods (Thornton, 2006).
In Zimbabwe climate change implications on economies, human
health and general well being are projected to be far affecting
rural livelihoods. According to the IPCC report agricultural yields
are expected to decrease in many parts of Sub-Saharan, if the
projected temperature increase is more than a few degrees. In the
region crop productivity is expected to increase slightly at mid-to
high latitudes for local average temperature increases of upto 1 to
3C depending on the crop and then decrease beyond that in some
regions (medium confidence). Climate change studies in the region
have shown that lower latitudes especially those in the seasonally
dry and tropical regions crop productivity is estimated to decrease
(1 to 2C) which would increase the risk of hunger. Climate change
trends have shown that globally, the potential for food production
is estimated to increase, with an increase in local average
temperature over a range of 1 to 3C, but above this range, food
production potential is projected to decrease (Mendelsohn,
2006).
In areas such as Mbire agriculture is affected by changing
weather patterns such as changing river flows and rainfall
patterns. Agricultural production has been affected as a result of
changes in behavior of pests and species that are required for
pollination and pest-control (Reilly, 2005). The health sector is
also affected by climate change; the health status of the people in
Mbire is projected to be affected through increases in
malnutrition, increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme
weather events. Climate change has also increased burden of
diarrhoeal diseases, increased frequency of cardio-respiratory
diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in
urban areas related to climate change and the altered spatial
distribution of some infectious diseases (Archer, 2010). Changing
weather patterns in Mbire have resulted in diseases especially
those carried by vectors like mosquitoes, spreading to new areas in
the province (Githeko, 2006). Vectors such as mosquitoes which
carry malaria and dengue survive and breed more efficiently in
hotter temperatures hence diseases such as malaria have resulted in
deaths of thousands in rural areas. The consequences are far
reaching when a disease is introduced.
Changing rainfall patterns and temperature has lead to changes
in runoff and water availability. According to Arnell runoff and
consequent river discharge are projected to increase by 10 to 40%
in higher latitudes and other populous areas in East and South-East
Asia due to the thawing of ice caps (Arnell, 2004). Drought prone
areas are likely to increase in extent, with the potential adverse
impacts on multiple sectors such as agriculture productivity, water
supply, energy production and health. In Africa it has been noted
that an increase in irrigation water demand as a result of climate
changes is projected (Bryceson, 2002). As compared to other regions
in the world, the IPCC 2007 report suggests that sub-Saharan Africa
is warming at a rate faster than the global average, and increasing
aridity in many countries. It is estimated by the IPCC that by
2020, between 80 and 255 million of people are projected to be
exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.
According to Chishakwe (2010), the extreme climatic events that
the subregion has been experiencing such as the El Nino related
droughts are negatively impacting the inhabitants, agricultural
productivity and economies of Southern Africa. Elnino events that
destroyed livestock and human beings in 1965 and 1997 resulted in a
significant decrease in agricultural production, thereby worsening
food insecurity situation in the subregion. Moreover, warming of
the Pacific Ocean in 1991 and 1992 resulted in one of the worst
calamities the subregion has ever experienced (Glantz, 1997). Since
2001, conservative dry spells in the sub-region have led to food
shortages. In Sub Saharan Africa six countries namely Lesotho,
Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, faced a food
deficit of about 1.2 million tonnes of cereals and nonfood
requirements in 2001 and 2002. The droughts that occurred in 2002
and 2003 resulted in a food deficit of about 3.3 million tonnes, it
was also estimated that 13.5 million people were in need of
assistance (Ziervogel and Calder, 2003)In sub Saharan Africa
climate variability is projected to have severe macroeconomic
consequences in the form of increasing prevalence of droughts and
floods (Unganai, 2009). In Zimbabwe gross domestic (GDP) dropped by
3% and 11% due to the 1983 and 1992 droughts respectively, for
instance the same droughts costed the Zambian government about
US$350 million, this led to a US$ 1.7 billion deficit in 1992 and
translated into a 42% drop in agricultural output produce and a 3%
decline in the countrys gross domestic product (Unganai, 2009).
In the region some farmers benefited from the long growing
seasons and higher yields, the general consequences for Africa is
expected to be adverse for the poor and the marginalized, who
cannot withstand drastic changes. In sub Saharan Africa some areas
are likely to emerge as the most vulnerable to climate change by
2100, with probable agricultural losses of between 2, 2 and 7, 5
percent of affected countries gross domestic product. African
region has a higher proportion of people living in absolute poverty
than any other region of the globe (Moyo, 2012).
In third world countries rural poverty accounts for 80% of total
poverty and approximately 75% of the poor still depend on
agriculture or farm labour for their survival in rural areas
(Otive, 2006). The number of people living in poverty in developing
countries is increasing significantly, for instance the United
Nations human poverty index in 2008 placed Zimbabwe amongst the 25
poorest nations in the world (UNEP, 2009). Poverty results in
various negative impacts such as shortened lifespan, malnutrition
and spreading of diseases such as HIV/AIDS (Anselm, 2010). The
government of Zimbabwe has made efforts in attaining the MDGs,
policies and legislation have been put in place to attain the MDGs
especially poverty reduction. Global warming can adversely
influence attainment of the MDGs; this can be as a result of
reduction in soil moisture and water runoff to rivers caused by a
warmer and drier climate that is triggered by increased frequency
and intensity of El Nino events (Kandji, 2006). Global warming has
affect crop production in Mbire hence this is critical in ensuring
food security and poverty reduction in the district (Goal 1 of
MDGs). Loss of biological diversity, land degradation and
desertification has occurred as a result of increased aridity
(Kandji, 2006). Land degradation and desertification will have
serious impact on environmental sustainability (Goal 7 of the
MDGs).
Climate disasters have affect children in Zimbabwe especially in
Mbire thereby forcing them out of school due to increased poverty,
remoteness, isolation, food shortages and child abandonment.
Failure to attend primary education will affect the attainment of
goal 2 of the MDGs. Studies by anthropologist have shown that when
there are anticipated climate-induced disasters women often get a
disproportionate share of burden because they have fewer
opportunities than their male counterparts. Climate change
disasters in Zimbabwe have affected women severely than men further
undermining their development, education and reproductive roles
thus affecting their welfare and that of their children. Climate
change disasters directly have an impact on the attainment of the
MDGs 3, 4 and 5 (Kanji, 2006).
Zimbabwean economy is agro based it relies on agriculture and
natural resources to an extent that intensive and frequent droughts
will impact on the critical sectors of national economies (Chaguta,
2010). Climate change impact on agricultural production can result
in collapse of economies, the impact of a collapsed economy
associated with disaster response operations may reduce the ability
of governments to invest in important socioeconomic sectors hence
affecting the attainment of MDGs 1 7 (Ayers, 2011).
World Bank (2006) survey revealed that out of every four of the
worlds poor three live in the rural remote areas and this is
projected to continue for the foreseeable future. Development aid
and poverty alleviation strategies have failed to a greater extent
in promoting sustainable development and addressing rural poverty.
The rural poor are have no power to influence decision making and
policy formulation thus they are less seen and even less in the
nature of their poverty understood.
In Mbire it has been confirmed that climate change is happening
with significant impacts on ecosystems, communities, agriculture
and economies. Climate change effects have affected everyone in the
community; it is expected to have a disproportionate effect on
those living in poverty, especially in developing countries. Rural
people constitute the bulk of the population in Zimbabwe hence they
are more exposed to the changes in the climate because they are
closer to the biophysical and experience limits of climate and
because their adaptive capacity is lower (Kuik, & Smith, 2004).
Climate change in Zimbabwe especially drought prone areas
constitutes an additional burden to the already existing and
persisting problems such as poverty, diseases, illiteracy, civil
unrest, weak institutional capacity, unstable governments, poor
infrastructure, and other global environmental change issues (e.g.
land degradation, land-use change, desertification and biodiversity
loss). Climate change implications in remote areas include the
inability to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger and to ensure
environmental sustainability, as a result the recognition of how
climate change is likely to influence development priorities may
therefore be a first step toward building cost-effective
strategies/interventions and integrated, institutional capacity in
third world countries to respond to the changes in climate (Beg et
al., 2002).
Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Zimbabwe have proven
to have considerable effects on all sectors of development. Changes
induced by climate change will have an effect on natural and human
systems directly or in synergy with other determinants to alter the
productivity, diversity and functions of many ecosystems and
livelihoods around the world. In Zimbabwe, climate variability may
undermine many years of development efforts (IPCC, 2007). In
drought prone areas like Mbire the vulnerability of the poor or the
less privileged is compounded by the fact that poverty exacerbates
and is exacerbated by the impacts of environmental change. In Mbire
most of the recent natural disasters are weather, climate and water
related (Ayanji, 2004)In Mbire rural livelihoods are highly
dependent on climate-sensitive resources; over reliance on the
ecosystem services can place their welfare and survival at the
mercy of environmental conditions (Ayanji, 2004). The quality and
availability of natural resources decline due to natural and
human-induced pressures, so does the viability and security of
their livelihoods and low adaptive capacity. Drought prone areas in
Zimbabwe, the population in areas which are affected by climate
change are at the high risk of climate hazards. Climate change
hazards frequency and severity of climate shocks are repeatedly
eroding the coping mechanisms adopted capacity in most of these
areas, thus constraining their ability to meet basic needs and move
out of poverty trap (Ibid). Vulnerability analysis can help to come
up with possible solutions how and where society can best invest in
vulnerability reduction.
Climate change adaptationClimate change adaptation is one of the
major areas under discussion in the multilateral climate change
process; this has increasingly turned out to be a key focus of the
policy-making and scientific communities in recent years (Sonwra,
2013). UNFCC is the legal institution which provides a foundation
for concerted international action to lessen climate change impacts
and to adapt to its effects on agricultural production (United
Nations, 1992).
Environmental transformations caused by changes in the climate
are expected to be unprecedented (IPCC, 2007), local knowledge and
coping mechanisms may provide a crucial foundation for
community-based adaptation measures and complement broader scale
scientific research with local precision. With current climate
change impacts mitigation policies and related sustainable
development strategies, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will
continue to grow into the next century (Agrawwal, 2004).
Concentrations of all global greenhouse gas and aerosols have been
kept constant at year 2000 levels; a further warming of about 0.1C
per decade would be expected. Anthropogenic warming and sea level
is likely continue for years to come due to the time scales
associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if global
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized (Mirza, 2003).
Unsafe climate change future calls for innovative livelihood
interventions to cope up with and adapt to the changing environment
(Chagutah, 2010). Climate change adaption refers to taking measures
to adjust to a new set of climatic attributes, either different
from those already existing, or changed parameters of existing
attributes (Ayers, 2011).
Adaptation can be defined as adjustments in ecological,
economic, social systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stresses and their effects or impacts on production (IPCC, 2007).
The above definition includes both reactive and anticipatory
adaptation. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change definition
also includes both climate variability and change (Carney, 1998).
Climate change adaptation is the process through which people in an
area reduce adverse effects of climate variability on their health
and well-being and take advantage of the opportunities that their
climatic environment provides. Successful climate change adaptation
to changing weather/environment patterns is a function of the means
available to the affected people in an area and this is to do with
adaptive capacity (Pittock and Jones, 2000). Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change defines adaptive capacity as the ability of
a system to adjust to the changes of climate, including climate
variability and extremes to moderate potential damages, to take
advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC
WG II, 2001). Adaptive capacity is one of the determinants of a
system that will influence the occurrence and nature of
adaptations, other determinants susceptibility, coping range,
sensitivity, vulnerability, stability, resilience, and flexibility
(Adger, 2004). Sub Saharan countries are often regarded as having
the lowest adaptive capacity to cope with climate change as they do
not have access to technology, the least degree of development of
social institutions, as well as the highest historical and existing
stresses associated with climate change (Chagutah, 2010). Adaptive
capacity is inversely correlated with vulnerability, hence in
theory a society with high adaptive capacity experiences successful
adaptation capacity and low vulnerability to changes of climate.
Formal or direct indicators of adaptive capacity and vulnerability
to determine vulnerable situations in communities and these include
factors such as income, education, infrastructure and state of
civil society among others.
IPCC notes that adaptive capacity is aimed dealing with climate
risks and it is closely related to sustainable development and
equity (Pilifosova, 2001). Some of the key determinants of adaptive
capacity to sustainable development and climate change are improved
access to resources, improved education, reduction of poverty,
information, improved infrastructure, active participation by
concerned parties to ensure that actions match local needs and
resources (Moyo, 2012).
Coping and adapting may be used synonymously, but some are of
the view that there are distinct differences between these terms
(Rennie and Singh, 1996). Coping strategies are generally
considered to be short-term in drought prone areas to ward off
immediate danger, rather than to adjust to permanent or continuous
threats or changes (Fankhauser, 1998). Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change defines coping range as the variation in climatic
stimuli that a system can absorb without producing significant
impacts (Smith, 2001). From the definition above it clearly
indicates that there are limits to coping mechanisms, which imply
that in going beyond these a system will break down. Coping is not
a sustainable solution which allows for adjustment but rather it is
a temporary response. Coping strategies are regarded as part of the
portfolio of options for responding to threats and events,
particularly for poor households and communities in drought areas
(Chambers, 1989).
Coping strategies are the strategies or interventions which are
taken when faced with unfavourable climate conditions and not part
of an ideal livelihood strategy thus coping can be regarded as a
response to abnormal seasons or years (Madamombe, 1996). Some
scholars are of the view that coping strategies do not necessarily
indicate adverse conditions/situations to which an adjustment needs
to be made, but rather a normal element of survival in sporadic
conditions, faced particularly by subsistence farmers in sub
Saharan Africa (Adger and Vincente, 2005).
In drought prone areas coping strategies are associated with
increasing long-term vulnerability or the introduction of a
different state of vulnerability through the implementation of
actions. These actions which fulfil short-term needs and do not
explicitly consider the consequences of these actions such as the
excessive resource extraction or selling off assets during drought
(Fankhauser, 1998). Some of these strategies may also be damaging
to our environment in the future which will eventually lead to
natural resource depletion or other problems that could compound
the adverse impacts of hazards (Chagutah, 2010). Coping strategies
make up a potential basis for the development of adaptation
methods. Adapting and coping to changes in the climate are two
relative and different ways to respond to climate risks that cannot
be interchanged (Chishakwe, 2010).
Adaption and coping strategies may optimise trade-off between
reducing sensitivity and increasing resilience and ultimately it is
necessary as part of a response package to climate variability and
change (Unganai, 2009). Food and Agriculture Organisation
operationalisation framework for adaptation proposes a number of
strategies to be used for sustainable climate change adaptation
that can be used in the agriculture and food sector. It is also
important to protect local food supplies, livelihoods and assets
from the effects of the increased frequency, weather variability
and intensity of extreme weather events.
Climate change in ZimbabweThe department of meteorological
services in Zimbabwe has increasingly seen more hot days between
1950 and 1990(UNEP/GRIDA, 2002). An increase in average
temperatures by 2C will result in a decrease of Zimbabwes wetlands
from 9% to 2.5% and a 4C increase would reduce the summer
water-surplus zones to less than 2% (Bohle et al., 1994: 47).
Climate change will affect especially changes in temperature will
affect agricultural production in drought prone areas particularly
crop yields. Temperature increase by 4 C in Zimbabwe will result in
a decline of maize by 27% in the north-east, and 20% in the
south-east region, bordering Mozambique (Magadza, 1994). Climate
change global simulation models such as Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model have revealed that the cessation,
duration and onset of the effective rainfall seasons have become
unpredictable and variable. Global warming has resulted in
increased average temperatures in Zimbabwe causing the shifting of
the traditional farming seasons and agro-ecological zones (natural
farming regions). The period of 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s droughts
occurred after very decade that is every 10 years, the trend has
changed as a result of the changes in the climate that have made
the rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe difficult to predict and more
unreliable. The frequency of dry spells and droughts in the 90s
increased to four to five years in the late 90s. By 2000 the
situation of droughts had worsened as droughts, erratic and
unpredictable rainfalls become more successive from 2002-2003,
2004-2005 and 2007-2008. Successive occurrence in the country
affected agricultural and food production significantly since the
government had not adopted concise adaptation measures to mitigate
the impact climate change.
It is projected that climate change will significantly affect
agriculture production in drought prone areas in Zimbabwe to an
extent that by 2050 there will be a general decrease in areas
suitable for maize production growing from 80% to 75% while some
areas in the South Western part of the country will become totally
unsuitable for maize growing (www.zbc.co.zw). Maize is the staple
food in Zimbabwe and diet, hence in nothing is done to address the
effects of climate change the country will inevitably faces a major
food security crisis in the coming years and exacerbating poverty.
The worst affected drought prone areas are the drier parts of the
country such as Chivi, Zvishavane, Mbire and Buhera were
precipitation has declined significantly (Gogo, 2012). Increased
deviation from the mean precipitation in the periods 1984-2002
shows that the level to which rainfall patterns is changing in
Zimbabwe. There is need to promote the planting small grains or
drought resistant crops such as millet, cow peas and sorghum to
cope with the effects of climate variability and changes to ensure
food security. Changes in the climate have posed a drastic threat
to the agriculture industries in Zimbabwe as they continue to
suffer from natural disasters and frequent occurrence of droughts.
Droughts, cyclones and erratic rainfall have contributed to poor
performance and low agricultural production in the country.
Smallholder farmers will be especially vulnerable to the impacts of
climate variability and change (IPCC, 2007). Their susceptibility
is driven by all three elements of vulnerability: exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007).
Smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe face biophysical and
socioeconomic challenges, most notably degrading land resource
bases and poorly functioning markets (Nyikahadzoi et al., 2012;
Mapfumo et al., 2013). The adverse effects of climate change will
interact or combine with existing and emerging biophysical and
socioeconomic challenges to add an extra burden on smallholder
farms (Vermeulen et al., 2012). Thus, apart from climatic risk, the
extent of yield decrease will also depend on other factors,
particularly on soil fertility management and market access
(Chipanshi et al., 2003; Mapfumo et al., 2013). It is clear that
smallholder farmers are sensitive to possible adverse changes in
climate.
Climate change will increase the intensity of climate
variability, extreme events and change variables that are critical
for agricultural production such as air temperature (Unganai,
1996). Rainfall is a major driver for agricultural production in
Zimbabwe. Given that surface air temperature has increased by 0.1C
per decade between 1933 and 1993 and is projected to further
increase by between 2C and 5C by 2100 in Zimbabwe (Unganai, 1996).
A combination of droughts and temperatures are projected to reduce
agriculture production in Zimbabwe (Lobell et al., 2011). There is
already evidence that yields of major staple cereal food crops of
the region such as millet, maize and sorghum will decline due to
change in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures (Zinyengere
et al., 2013).
The capacity of smallholder farmers in drought prone areas to
adapt to the changing weather patterns and in particular to climate
change and variability, is constrained by poverty and a limited
capacity to switch to alternative livelihood options (Mapfumo et
al., 2013). These circumstances have been exacerbated by lack of
supporting policies and institutions (Nyagumbo and Rurinda,
2012).
Climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity
and any adverse changes in it would likely have devastating effects
in this sector causing crop failures and concomitantly affecting
the livelihoods of the majority of the population that hinge on
rain-fed agricultural practices for their mainstay, accounting for
about 97% of the agricultural land (Calzadilla 2009). Community
based adaptation is capable of reducing the vulnerability as well
as improving on the resilience of the local people to climatic
variability and change. Although subsistence farming thus far have
a long history of coping and adapting to some of these changes,
effective adaptation strategies and actions should therefore be
aimed at securing the well-being of the subsistence farmers in the
face of climatic changes (Ibid). However, until recently, most
adaptation efforts have been top-down, and little attention has
been paid to communities experiences of climatic variability and
their efforts to cope with their changing environments. The top
down focuses on multi-decadal global climate predictions involving
quasi-linear responses dominated by increases in greenhouse gases
which are downscaled to societal environmental impacts (Solomon et
al.2007). Adaptation strategies should be geared towards a blend of
the top-down and bottom-up platforms; starting from a sequence of
analytical steps in the physical vulnerability, moving through the
biophysical impacts and terminating at the socio economic response
to climate which tend to be location specific (Dessai and Hulme
2004). Effective adaptation strategies aimed at securing the
well-being of subsistent farming communities requires the
involvement of multiple stakeholders ranging from policy makers,
extension agents, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs),
researchers, communities and to a greater extend the subsistence
farmers.
Crop productionThe principal crops produced in the Zimbabwean
communal areas are maize, cotton, sugar, groundnuts, beans and cow
peas. While the minor crops in commercial terms such as beans, cow
peas and groundnuts are considered to be the crops for women. The
major commercial crops which generate cash income are seen as mens
crops, and these include Tobacco, Cut-Flowers, Raw Sugar Cane,
Cotton, Chilled Vegetables, Coffee, Fruit, Tea (FAO, 2002). More
often than not, the significant part of the crops that are produced
commercially, are being exported to other countries. On the other
hand, most of the crops that are produced in the communal area are
for consumption. Although, the initial post independence period saw
a major boom in commercial crop production in communal areas, the
trend went down later. Cotton is one of the major crops produced
for commercial purposes in both the communal and FAO (2002)
observes that since 1950 cottons share in total fiber consumption
has declined from over 80 to 40% in recent years. Cotton prices in
the first nine months of 2001 declined by 14% compared to 2000.
This was in response to a 6% increase in global production in 2001.
Similarly, the decline was in part a result of US policies of
increased public support to cotton production, although increased
production in China and India also played a role. Prices were
predicted to decline still further in 2002 by 4%. Furthermore,
maize is another major crop in Zimbabwe. According to Unganai
(2002), 80% of the population is directly involved in its
production. The Grain Marketing Board of Zimbabwe receives 75% of
its grain from Small holder/communal farmers. Thus maize is a very
important income earner in the rural areas. From 1980 to 2001, the
annual production of maize in Zimbabwe had been well above 200,000
Metric tonnes with the exception of 1990 when it fell drastically
to 1,585,800. This drastic reduction was mainly accounted by the
low production in the commercial sector. The communal sector
however, continued to witness a general expansion in maize
production despite annual fluctuation and inefficient production.
Maize is not only a basic crop for household food security but also
an important source of household cash income (Ibid). Therefore, any
trade arrangements, which allow the import of cheap subsidised
maize at prices that undermine local prices, will depress rural
household incomes. Thus, this needs to be seen against the
background of an existing situation of rapidly escalating input
costs in the agricultural sector. The escalating costs have
hampered production and reduced the economic benefits of maize
production as a cash earner. Consequently, any reduction in the
maize price as a result of the availability of cheap imported maize
would compound this situation.
Animal productionThe commercial ranching sector of Zimbabwe
provides a rare opportunity for estimating the efficiencies of
extensive cattle and wildlife production systems. This is because
there is a long history of commercial cattle ranching, and that
landowners have the right to commercially use wildlife on their
lands (Kreuter and Workman, 1996). In semi-arid African savannas,
multispecies wildlife communities tend to use heterogeneous
vegetation more completely than cattle alone (Kreuter and Workman,
1996). Although, erratic rainfall has generally restricted
agricultural activities in these semiarid regions; hence wildlife
has been used commercially since 1970s. Wildlife production may
thus be the ecologically the most rational form of land use in
these areas. Hence, wildlife that are common in Zimbabwe especially
in the Midlands and Mashonaland central areas consists mainly of
plains-game species but a few larger herbivores, like elephant,
rhino, hippopotamuses, giraffe and buffalo. However, the most
valuable game-species are leopard, eland, water buck, kudu,
tsessebe, zebra, baboons, and different types of antelope (Kreuter,
2007). Considering the importance of livestock, a unit known as
Department of Livestock Production and Development was established
in 2002. The department is responsible for general animal husbandry
and consists of two divisions. The livestock production division
supports animal production and is the livestock outreach arm. While
livestock development and schemes division links up with technology
transfer, multiplication and breeding of animals and forage,
responsible for breeding nucleus heads, gene banks for fodder and
grass as well as new initiatives.
Agricultural manpowerGiven that agriculture is a key industry in
the economy of Zimbabwe, a large number of the countrys population
depend directly or indirectly on land for their means of
livelihood. For example, the industry provides employment for 70%
of the Zimbabwean population with employment (Weiner, Moyo, Munslow
and OKeefe 1985; APRODEV, 2002). Further analysis shows that 71% of
the total female population in Zimbabwe gain employment as communal
area farmers, 20% are employed outside the subsistence sector,
while 9% are classified as unemployed. The 20% of women employed
outside the subsistence sector are involved in a wide variety of
different occupations, such as casual laborers on commercial farms
and in some instances as permanent laborers. A small minority are
involved in farming under resettlement schemes (Ibid). Climate
change maladaption in ZimbabweMal-adaptation can be changes in
human or natural systems that inadvertently increase vulnerability
to climatic stimuli, an adaptation that does not succeed in
reducing vulnerability but increases it instead (Desanker, 2002).
In Zimbabwe it has been evidenced that mal-adaptation may not only
increase vulnerability but can also generate new risks. Some of the
planned strategies or interventions have resulted in negative
consequences for some in the rural areas. Climate change studies
have shown that what can be perceived by one group as an adaptation
and what is experienced by another as increased peril, actions
taken in attempt to minimise risk that have negative ancillary
impacts could be considered maladaptive. Mal-adaptation hazards
have proved that the impacts of particular measures aimed at
increasing the ability of one group to adapt or cope with certain
changing conditions must therefore also be considered in a larger
picture.
In Southern Africa especially Zimbabwe, farmers in rural farming
areas adaptation to climate change at micro levels concurs that
agricultural production remains the main source of earning a
livelihood for rural communities, providing employment
opportunities to more than 65% of the population and contributing
about 35% of GDP. It has been noted that in drought prone areas in
Zimbabwe small-scale farmers have a low capacity to adapt to
changes in climatic conditions, policies that help these farmers
adapt to global warming and associated extremes are particularly
important (Brown, 2012). In Mbire farmers are detecting a rise in
temperature over the past years, drier conditions and pronounced
changes in the timing of rains and frequency of droughts (Unganai,
2009).
Some of the adaptation measures used by farmers in Zimbabwe
include diversifying crops, planting different crops or crop
varieties, crop rotation, changing planting and harvesting dates,
replacing farm activities with nonfarm activities, increasing the
use of irrigation and increasing the use of water and soil
conservation techniques. Small scale farmers in drought prone areas
in Zimbabwe barriers to sustainable adaptation measures include
insufficient access to inputs, lack of credit, and lack of
information on climate (Unganai, 2009).
Rural people in Mbire are mostly depended on forest
resourcebased on household implements such as axe, hoe handles,
pestles and mortars, cooking sticks, plates and bowls, ox yokes,
ox-carts, drums, and hunting tools (Hulme, 2012). Income generating
activities such as carving, carpentry, craft work, roof mending,
thatching, selling wood fuel, thatching grass, wild fruit and
vegetables constitute the largest source of woodland/forest based
income for rural households in Zimbabwe and Southern Africa
(Berkes, 2003).
ConclusionIn this chapter the theoretical and empirical
literature on the impact of climate change on agricultural
production have been discussed from global level to district level.
Spatial patterns, concepts, and trends variability and climate
change were introduced and discussed from a global to Mbire
district level. Temperature and rainfall are the two key climate
variables most notable in climate change assessments from a
socio-economic perspective. Rainfall patterns, there is a notable
declining trend in many African countries. Climate is one of the
most important determinants of human survival, livelihoods and
culture, all of the world population is vulnerable to the
unprecedented climate variability and changes taking place in the
present Africa. In the world and regionally impact of climate
change is multi-dimensional such as direct impact on agricultural
productivity, the biophysical world which in turn happens to be the
vital asset for local livelihoods, economies and human wellbeing.
Three dimensions of vulnerability to climate change can be outlined
from the perspective of local livelihoods assessment; the three
dimensions are the physicalenvironmental dimension, the
socioeconomic dimension and the availability and nature of external
assistance. Climate change adaptations strategies are natural
systems and human systems, which have interacting and
interdependent functions.
Whereas, the whole world is subjected to climate change impacts,
the distribution of the impacts is uneven. The low-latitude, third
world countries or less-developed parts of the world are generally
at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive
capacity. In the world, some regions and communities may be able to
adapt to the changing climate, many parts of the world and their
inhabitants are facing increased vulnerability. In Sub-Saharan
Africa amongst other developing countries or less developed regions
are particularly vulnerable to climate change. In sub-Saharan
Africa the majority of the populations and other less developed
regions are rural subsistent farmers whose living depends mostly on
rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive natural resources-based
livelihoods.
Literature review also distinguished that in an attempt to cope
with climate change impacts on agriculture some communities run the
risk of plunging into mal-adaptation. Rural communities lack
knowledge, technical and other material assets, many rural
communities in drought prone areas in Zimbabwe adopt climate change
coping methods that are short or long term generate negative
ancillary impacts to the wellbeing or other communities . A
amalgamation of local actions together with incorrect policy
interventions and other external forces often result to greater
vulnerability to climate change.
Chapter Three: Research MethodologyThis chapter outlines the
methods and techniques, which were used by the researcher in
carrying out the research. This chapter is mainly concerned with
the detailed research methods through which data was collected and
the more general philosophies upon which the collection and the
analysis of data were based (Haralambos and Halborn, 1995). This
chapter includes an evaluation on the research methodology that was
used by the researcher thus involving research design, the methods
of data collection, identification of the population, sample size,
sampling procedures and methods of data analysis. These
methodologies were considered under the broader framework of
qualitative and quantitative research methods adopted. The study
again involved data collection obtained from both primary and
secondary data sources. The chapter also outlines the instruments
which were used for data collection as well as giving the
disadvantages and advantages of the instruments. The researcher
made use of the questionnaires, focus group discussions and
interviews as instruments for collecting data.
Study PopulationMbire district has a population of about 20 000
(Parliament review, 2009) and is furthest to the north of Zimbabwe
and shares the border with Mozambique. The district has areas which
include Hunyani, Chikafa, Angwa-Bridge, Masoka, St Cecilia, Muzeza,
Kanyemba, Chidodo and Musengezi. The majority of residents of Mbire
are mainly involved in forms of economic activities such as cotton
and maize farming, gold panning, fishing, barter trading and small
scale business traders. The district has abundant wildlife and is
also prone to droughts and malaria. Poverty levels and food
insecurity in the district are relatively higher than in most
districts of the country. The majority of Mbire residents are very
poor and depend on agriculture for survival. Most of Mbire's
population are scattered throughout the region especially in farms
which meant that the researcher had to cover much of Mbire to
access relatively representative information.
SampleThe questionnaires were answered using purposive sampling
technique and 100 questionnaires were distributed with 95 answered
hence making the methodology and attainment of the research aim
obtainable. Questionnaires were distributed in all wards to
farmers, community members, agricultural extension workers, local
authorities (DA, Councilors, Ward Officers) and teachers in Mbire.
50 males received questionnaires as compared to 50 females who
received questionnaires for the research in order to come up with a
balanced assessment.
The researcher interviewed