Michael Obersteiner Michael Obersteiner IIASA IIASA Regional Carbon Budgets: From methodologies to Regional Carbon Budgets: From methodologies to quantification. quantification. Beijing, China, 15-18 November 2004 Beijing, China, 15-18 November 2004 Coupling Carbon Coupling Carbon Processes and Economics Processes and Economics
37
Embed
Michael Obersteiner IIASA Regional Carbon Budgets: From methodologies to quantification. Beijing, China, 15-18 November 2004 Coupling Carbon Processes.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Michael ObersteinerMichael Obersteiner
IIASAIIASA
Regional Carbon Budgets: From methodologies to Regional Carbon Budgets: From methodologies to quantification.quantification.
Beijing, China, 15-18 November 2004Beijing, China, 15-18 November 2004
Coupling Carbon Coupling Carbon Processes and Processes and
EconomicsEconomics
Overview
• Motivation to manage the carbon cycle– Financial Analyst´s point of view
• Scenarios of what needs to be done– What is the biospheric contribution
• More trade offs than synergies
Effective compliance with Art. 2 UNFCCC!?
Risk analysis… the Chartist
Nokia
Ericsson Siemens
Siemens
Ericsson
Nokia
Buy Gold
Data is from the climate system!!!
GISP and IPCC data, own calculations
Concentration
s
Growing
No
AnalogueLevel&speed
High volatility
Abrupt
Chang
e
The obvious number!?
371, ….550,….750…?
Which number would you pick…..?
Gold from Science?
• IPCC for the 4th assessment emission scenarios that lead to concentrations of <450 are not planned
• No low emission climate runs
• No benchmark
Climate Risk Management -Ostriching?
Climat
e
• Stabilization target is a SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION – Plausibility of
stabilization targets
• Little preparation
How to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations
• Use less energy– Improve energy efficiency– Life style changes– Stabilize population
• Use other forms of energy– Natural gas instead of coal– Renewables– Nuclear
• Capture and store carbon – From fossil fuels and/or biomass (in energy conversion plants)– From the atmosphere (in trees, soils or in CO2 capture facilities)
Spatial Distribution of GDP
• Important inputs to the spatially explicit forestry and regional agricultural model
• Necessary information for vulnerability, adaptation and impact assessment
• The figure shows the The figure shows the various sources of various sources of GHGs and the GHGs and the mitigation achieved mitigation achieved from the baseline in the from the baseline in the A2 mitigation scenarioA2 mitigation scenario
• Energy represents the Energy represents the top sector for potential top sector for potential mitigationmitigation
• Sinks contribute Sinks contribute significantly in significantly in reduction of forest CO2reduction of forest CO2
• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision
INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK
Geo
refe
renc
ed
Dat
aba
se
EPIC simulates many processes:
Weather: simulated or actualHydrology: evapotranspiration, runoff,
percolation, 5 PET equations,...Erosion: wind and water, 6 erosion equations,...Carbon sequestration: plant residue, manure,