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Housing Forecast

Market Research UpdateSt. Louis RegionMarch 2009

Joe Zanola

MarketGraphics St. Louis Region

9315 Manchester Road

St. Louis, MO 63119

(314) 918-7200

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National MarketGraphics Research Markets

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Review of Housing Market Vibrancy

Single-Family Housing Permits (not rentals) as Percent of Population

(To obtain to .75% in a mature, larger city is Excellent)

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

United

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Knoxville

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Kansas

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Centr

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15Counties

/Citie

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Metro

Louis

ville

8Countie

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Coastal

Georgia

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ounties

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Flood

Plain

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New Home Subdivisions (Started and Projected to Start)

Report Date

Started & Not

Started Subdivision

Count

Started

Subdivision

Count

Developed

Lot

Inventory

Average No. of

Lots Per Started

Subdivision

Counted

Inventory

of Homes

Homes Under

Construction

Homes

Finished Not

Occupied

Homes

Estimated

Not Sold

Mar-1998 816 761 16,063 21.11 2,809 1,876 933 917

Jul-1998 758 686 15,878 23.15 2,804 1,984 820 872

Nov-1998 787 708 16,054 22.68 3,144 2,384 760 813

Mar-1999 805 715 17,156 23.99 3,051 2,205 846 948

Jul-1999 833 740 17,049 23.04 3,638 2,740 898 985

Nov-1999 761 666 16,306 24.48 3,516 2,737 779 880

Mar-2000 709 655 16,486 25.17 3,551 2,649 902 968

Jul-2000 719 646 15,667 24.25 3,696 2,684 1,012 1,119

Nov-2000 718 649 15,787 24.33 3,163 2,251 912 912

Mar-2001 719 645 15,512 24.05 2,935 1,990 945 928Jul-2001 774 674 14,907 22.12 3,749 2,853 896 937

Nov-2001 782 692 14,673 21.20 3,685 2,815 870 978

Mar-2002 775 682 14,474 21.22 3,284 2,336 948 924

Jul-2002 768 661 13,806 20.89 3,612 2,680 932 931

Nov-2002 788 673 14,335 21.30 3,891 2,946 945 976

Mar-2003 813 675 14,222 21.07 4,026 2,955 1,071 1,168

Jul-2003 844 692 14,224 20.55 4,427 3,344 1,083 1,120

Nov-2003 896 734 16,972 23.12 4,940 3,709 1,231 1,324

Mar-2004 980 820 17,189 20.96 5,196 3,634 1,562 1,743

Jul-2004 1,040 869 18,309 21.07 5,822 4,649 1,173 1,293

Nov-2004 1,106 928 19,857 21.40 6,594 5,336 1,258 1,540Mar-2005 1,132 932 19,892 21.34 6,309 4,613 1,696 1,898

Jul-2005 1,172 968 21,000 21.69 7,394 5,659 1,735 2,016

Nov-2005 1,175 974 22,548 23.15 7,700 5,871 1,829 1,995

Mar-2006 1,198 1,007 23,883 23.72 8,381 6,301 2,080 2,444

Jul-2006 1,205 991 25,256 25.49 8,825 6,607 2,218 2,592

Nov-2006 1,250 1,023 27,784 27.16 8,871 6,464 2,407 2,777

Mar-2007 1,535 1,252 33,579 26.82 8,913 6,104 2,809 3,116

Jul-2007 1,582 1,295 35,336 27.29 9,178 6,291 2,887 2,978

Nov-2007 1,597 1,303 34,810 26.72 9,064 6,176 2,888 3,143

Mar-2008 1,615 1,347 36,350 26.99 8,271 5,323 2,948 3,043Jul-2008 1,595 1,329 35,484 26.70 7,986 4,952 3,034 2,962

Nov-2008 1,556 1,310 35,751 27.29 6,910 3,593 3,317 3,175

Mar-2009 1,533 1,291 34,998 27.11 5,312 2,394 2,918 2,796

Model Franklin County 14 St. Charles County 256

Home Jefferson County 63 St. Clair County 58

Count: Lincoln County 31 St. Louis City 44

Madison County 19 St. Louis County 113

Monroe County 8 Warren County 10

Total Models or Displays 616

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St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region November 2003

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Home/Lot

Count

Nov0

0

M

ar01Ju

l01

Nov01

M

ar02Jul0

2

Nov02

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ar03Jul0

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ar04Jul0

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4

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ar05Jul0

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ar06

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ar07

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ber07

March0

8

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ber08

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Under ConstructionStarts

Closings

Finished Unoccupied

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0

1,000

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Home/LotCoun

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ar01Ju

l01

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ar02Jul0

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ar03Jul0

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ar04Jul0

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ar05Jul0

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ar06

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ar07

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ber07

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ber08

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Under ConstructionStarts

Closings

Finished Unoccupied


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0

1,000

2,000

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Home/LotCoun

Nov0

0

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01Jul0

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02Ju

l02

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03Ju

l03

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04Ju

l04

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4

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05Jul0

5

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06

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6

Mar

07

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ber07

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ber08

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09

Under Construction

Starts

Closings

Finished Unoccupied

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Home/Lo

tCoun

Nov0

0

Mar

01Ju

l01

Nov01

Mar

02Jul0

2

Nov02

Mar

03Jul0

3

Nov03

Mar

04Jul0

4

Nov0

4

Mar

05Jul0

5

Nov05

Mar

06

July

06

Nov0

6

Mar

07

July

07

Novembe

r07

M

arch

08

July

08

Novembe

r08

M

arch

09

Under Construction

Starts

Closings

Finished Unoccupied

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Home/Lo

tCoun

Nov0

0

Mar

01Ju

l01

Nov01

Mar

02Jul0

2

Nov02

Mar

03Jul0

3

Nov03

Mar

04Jul0

4

Nov0

4

Mar

05Jul0

5

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July

06

Nov0

6

Mar

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r07

M

arch

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r08

M

arch

09

Under Construction

Starts

Closings

Finished Unoccupied

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St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region March 2009

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Home/LotCoun

Nov0

0

Mar

01Jul0

1

Nov01

Mar

02Ju

l02

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l03

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l04

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6

Mar

07

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Novemb

er07

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er08

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Under Construction

Starts

Closings

Finished Unoccupied

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0

-43

-776

-155

-248

-673 537 -1

76 822728 1

901075

1631 -2

91101

160

61270

137

32528

579

5175

7-526

1540

-866

267

-753

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Home

/LotCo

Nov0

0

Mar

01Ju

l01

Nov01

Mar

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l02

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l03

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4

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l05

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06

Nov0

6

Mar

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July

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Novemb

er07

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08

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08

Novemb

er08

March

09

Developed Lots

Change in Developed Lots

St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region March 2009

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Previous Starts and Housing Forecast

1

0

6

0

9

1

1

2

2

3

1

0

2

5

3

8

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9

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39

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87

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1

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0

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9

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0

2000

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10000

12000

14000

16000

1986

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2012

2013

2014

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Forecast of Housing Starts by CountyCounty 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

SL City 2,370 1,004 805 489 504 530 571 598 632 611

SL County 2,271 1,662 2,129 564 599 630 680 712 750 727

Jefferson 1,443 1,199 1,040 754 794 835 900 943 996 964

St. Charles 3,683 3,022 2,949 1,486 1,623 1,707 1,840 1,928 2,037 1,971

St. Clair 1,710 1,464 1,028 598 640 673 726 760 803 778

Madison 1,204 870 738 589 657 691 745 780 823 797

Franklin 725 551 375 291 336 113 122 128 136 131

Warren 503 383 342 112 108 336 361 379 400 388

Lincoln 658 602 348 275 319 143 154 161 171 165

Monroe 312 246 229 126 136 354 381 400 422 409

Total 14,879 11,004 9,983 5,284 5,715 6,010 6,480 6,790 7,170 6,940

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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How Can A MarketGraphicsForecast Help You Succeed?

The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average

Your Goals by:

1. DemographicsHomebuyers First!

2. Communities and Home Sites

3. New Homes

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DemographicsHomebuyers First!

Employment Trends Geographic Trends Household Trends Homebuyer Trends

What Needs to Change?

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Historical Permits vs. Interest Rates vs. Employment Comparison

St. Louis Region 10-CountyEmployment by 12-Month Periods

1,200,000

1,225,000

1,250,000

1,275,000

1,300,000

1,325,000

1,350,000

Oct.05

Dec.05

Feb.06

Apr.06

Jun.06

Aug.06

Oct.06

Dec.06

Feb.07

Apr.07

Jun.07

Aug.07

Oct.07

Dec.07

Feb.08

Apr.08

Jun.08

Aug.08

Oct.08

E

mp

l

o

y

m

e

n

t

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St. Louis MarketGraphics 10 County AreaPopulation by Age Trends

14.67%2.07%56,7391.85%49,4801.62%41,274Age 85 and over

0.50%4.30%118,0584.40%117,4744.51%114,731Age 75 to 84

19.59%7.65%209,9046.57%175,5186.72%171,195Age 65 to 74

25.65%6.02%165,0944.92%131,3973.81%96,967Age 60 to 64

12.58%7.08%194,3456.46%172,6314.77%121,590Age 55 to 59

5.85%7.70%211,1697.47%199,4906.23%158,563Age 50 to 54

-8.40%7.15%196,2248.02%214,2177.34%186,872Age 45 to 49

-8.98%12.32

%338,00013.90%371,35016.61%422,901Age 35 to 44

4.57%12.75

%349,79512.52%334,51013.34%339,722Age 25 to 34

3.80%5.41%148,5085.36%143,0654.77%121,500Age 21 to 24

0.13%4.04%110,7134.14%110,5743.98%101,319Age 18 to 20

-2.94%4.23%116,0104.48%119,5214.51%114,779Age 15 to 17

-5.20%6.36%174,5346.89%184,0987.66%195,134Age 10 to 14

1.16%6.38%175,1026.48%173,0877.45%189,815Age 5 to 9

2.85%6.54%179,3486.53%174,3736.68%170,042Age 0 to 4

2.72%2,743,5432,670,7852,546,404Population by Age

Change2008-2013

ProjectionEstimateCensus

%%2013%2008%2000

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St. Louis MarketGraphics 10 County AreaHousehold Trends

-7.77%1.17%8,7131.32%9,4471.64%10,9227 or more person household

-0.20%2.82%21,0712.95%21,1133.10%20,7246-person household


1.73%19.91%148,60820.39%146,08721.04%140,4624-person household



4.19%746,376716,377667,727Family Households

2.73%0.03%1130.03%1100.04%1207 or more person household

-14.86%0.04%1260.04%1480.05%1586-person household

-12.44%0.11%3940.13%4500.17%5375-person household





3.26%352,334341,217323,842Non-family Households

Change2008-2013


%%2013%2008%2000

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St. Louis MarketGraphics 10 County AreaIncome Trends

32.90%0.69%7,6030.54%5,7210.38%3,750$500,000 or more

31.00%1.50%16,4501.19%12,5570.82%8,120$250,000 to $499,999

34.20%5.63%61,8054.35%46,0563.12%30,945$150,000 to $249,999

23.91%14.00%153,86111.74%124,1687.94%78,816$100,000 to $149,999

8.22%13.53%148,60212.98%137,31111.13%110,465$75,000 to $99,999

1.44%20.10%220,83120.58%217,70421.01%208,493$50,000 to $74,999

-2.07%14.93%164,09015.84%167,55216.77%166,447$35,000 to $49,999

-5.68%10.01%109,93211.02%116,55712.75%126,562$25,000 to $34,999

-6.34%9.20%101,05810.20%107,90012.13%120,434$15,000 to $24,999

-6.22%10.42%114,47811.54%122,06813.95%138,422Less than $15,000

3.89%1,098,7101,057,594992,454Households by Household Income

Change2008-2013


%%2013%2008%2000

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2008 Estimated Average Household Income

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2008 Estimated Average Length of Residence

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2008 Estimated Average Owner Occupied Housing Value

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2008 Top 10 PRIZM Segments St. Louis, MO 10 County AreaSegment Definitions

2.46%41 Sunset City Blues

2.46%30 Suburban Sprawl

2.60%18 Kids & Cul-de-Sacs

2.63%37 Mayberry-ville

2.68%20 Fast-Track Families

2.74%13 Upward Bound

2.75%39 Domestic Duos

2.79%61 City Roots

2.94%27 Middleburg Managers

3.42%54 Multi-Culti MosaicTop 10 PRIZM

Segments

Households

%2008

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2008 Top 10 PRIZM Segments St. Louis, MO 10 County Area

39 Domestic DuosDomestic Duos represents a middle-class mix of mainly over 55 singles and married couplesliving in older suburban homes. With their high-school educations and fixed incomes,segment residents maintain an easy-going lifestyle. Residents like to socialize by goingbowling, seeing a play, meeting at the local fraternal order or going out to eat.

13 Upward BoundMore than any other segment, Upward Bound appears to be the home of those legendarySoccer Moms and Dads. In these small satellite cities, upper-class families boast dualincomes, college degrees and new split-levels and colonials. Residents of Upward Bound

tend to be kid-obsessed, with heavy purchases of computers, action figures, dolls, boardgames, bicycles and camping equipment.

20 Fast-Track FamiliesWith their upper-middle-class incomes, numerous children and spacious homes,Fast-Track Families are in their prime acquisition years. These middle-aged parents

have the disposable income and educated sensibility to want the best for theirchildren. They buy the latest technology with impunity: new computers, DVDplayers, home theater systems and video games. They take advantage of their rusticlocales by camping, boating and fishing.

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37 Mayberry-villeLike the old Andy Griffith show set in a quaint picturesque berg, Mayberry-ville harksback to an old-fashioned way of life. In these small towns, middle-class couples and familieslike to fish and hunt during the day, and stay home and watch TV at night. With lucrativeblue-collar jobs and moderately priced housing, residents use their discretionary cash to

purchase boats, campers, motorcycles and pickup trucks.

18 Kids & Cul-de-SacsUpscale, suburban, married couples with children-that's the skinny on Kids & Cul-de-Sacs, an enviable lifestyle of large families in recently built subdivisions. With a high rate

of Hispanic and Asian Americans, this segment is a refuge for college-educated, white-collar professionals with administrative jobs and upper-middle-class incomes. Their nexusof education, affluence and children translates into large outlays for child-centeredproducts and services.

30 Suburban Sprawl

Suburban Sprawl is an unusual American lifestyle: a collection of midscale, middle-agedsingles and couples living in the heart of suburbia. Typically members of the Baby Boomgeneration, they hold decent jobs, own older homes and condos, and pursue cocooningversions of the American Dream. Among their favorite activities are jogging on treadmills,playing trivia games and renting videos.

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41 Sunset City BluesScattered throughout the older neighborhoods of small cities, Sunset City Blues is asegment of lower-middle-class singles and couples who have retired or are getting closed toit. These empty-nesters tend to own their homes but have modest educations and incomes.They maintain a low-key lifestyle filled with newspapers and television by day, and family-

style restaurants at night.

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Communities and Home Sites

Performing/Non Performing Communities Developed Lot Supply vs. Demand Changing Lot Supply


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Flood

Plain

DevelopedLot Supply

Total

12-Month

Demand

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Flood

Plain

Started Subdivisionswith No Starts

by MG AreaNo Homes Started in

the Last 4 Months

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New Homes

Pricing and Values

New Home Supply vs. Demand New Home Types Changing New Home Supply, Starts, Under Construction,

Finished and Unoccupied


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New Homes Dollar Volume Forecast and Average Price of Housing

Price Range Forecast of Starts for2009 % Based onStarts Avg. Price for $Extension Forecast of DollarVolume % Based onDollars

Under $175,000 1,105 19.33% $140,000 $154,650,300 10.44%

$175,000 to $225,000 1,615 28.25% $200,000 $322,910,809 21.80%

$225,000 to $275,000 1,384 24.22% $250,000 $346,029,287 23.36%

$275,000 to $325,000 813 14.23% $300,000 $243,924,732 16.47%

$325,000 to $425,000 406 7.11% $375,000 $152,436,280 10.29%

$425,000 to $625,000 228 3.98% $525,000 $119,523,145 8.07%$625,000 to $925,000 116 2.03% $775,000 $89,908,808 6.07%

Over $925,000 48 0.85% $1,075,000 $52,062,383 3.51%

Totals 5,715 100% $1,481,445,743 100%

(Total Dollar Volume / Total

Forecast of Starts) Forecast average price of new homes: $259,221

19.33%

28.25%

24.22%

14.23%

7.11%

3.98%

2.03%0.85%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Under

$175,000

$175,000 to

$225,000

$225,000 to

$275,000

$275,000 to

$325,000

$325,000 to

$425,000

$425,000 to

$625,000

$625,000 to

$925,000

Over

$925,000

Forecast of Starts

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FloodPlain

Average Price of New

Homes by CountyBased on Closings

(i.e. People Moving In)

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Market Share by CountySt. Louis Region (Based on permits issued)

County / City 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

St. Charles 33.02% 29.29% 24.75% 27.34% 29.54% 28.12% 36.90%St. Louis County 14.57% 14.09% 15.26% 15.04% 21.33% 10.67% 10.71%

St. Clair 9.52% 11.01% 11.49% 13.25% 10.30% 11.32% 10.12%Jefferson 13.08% 10.64% 9.70% 10.85% 10.42% 14.27% 10.12%

St. Louis City 2.91% 11.42% 15.93% 9.52% 8.06% 9.25% 10.71%Madison 11.24% 9.76% 8.09% 7.87% 7.39% 11.15% 4.76%Franklin 4.89% 4.39% 4.87% 4.99% 3.76% 5.51% 7.14%Lincoln 4.68% 4.11% 4.42% 5.44% 3.49% 5.20% 5.95%Warren 3.12% 3.04% 3.38% 3.46% 3.43% 2.12% 1.19%Monroe 2.96% 2.25% 2.10% 2.23% 2.29% 2.38% 2.38%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Monroe

Warren

Lincoln

Franklin

Madison

St. Louis City

Jefferson

St. Clair

St. Louis County

St. Charles

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Building Permit Summary

JAN THRU JAN THRU

2006 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT

ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 108 74 86 60 95 58 131 98 121 118 48 51 108 1048

ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 83 61 131 108 145 94 67 76 674 59 80 77 83 1655

JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 79 122 137 124 104 118 97 110 84 84 73 62 79 1194

ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 227 239 313 299 349 289 296 289 181 159 214 154 227 3009

ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 142 104 106 134 123 166 149 147 121 99 94 73 142 1458

MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 50 67 76 72 85 85 64 81 85 80 62 59 50 866

FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 29 41 67 90 67 56 36 48 33 34 18 30 29 549

WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 32 33 37 55 50 44 21 19 32 19 28 11 32 381LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 56 45 61 63 56 61 51 55 56 47 33 15 56 599

MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 19 20 23 28 27 26 16 30 20 17 13 6 19 245

TOTALS 2006 825 806 1037 1033 1101 997 928 953 1407 716 663 538 825 11004

JAN THRU JAN THRU

2007 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOTST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 66 136 58 63 79 75 59 44 43 54 55 73 66 805







WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 30 26 36 28 25 44 33 23 35 31 22 9 30 342

LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 33 26 30 23 49 17 36 47 26 30 21 10 33 348


TOTALS 2007 766 849 955 938 1010 978 951 849 797 753 719 418 766 9983

i i i S

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Building Permit Summary

JAN THRU JAN THRU

2008 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT

ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 73 102 105 24 31 20 26 55 14 28 6 5 73 489







WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 21 11 9 11 16 9 7 4 7 10 5 2 21 112

LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 10 21 18 33 23 40 25 21 18 26 23 17 10 275


TOTALS 2008 526 509 559 580 539 470 482 436 330 405 221 227 526 5284

JAN THRU CURRENT2009 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT Y-T-D

ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 18 18 18

ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 18 18 18

JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 17 17 17

ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 62 62 62

ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 17 17 17

MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 8 8 8

FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 12 12 12

WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 2 2 2

LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 10 10 10

MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 4 4 4

TOTALS 2009 168 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 168

Hi t i l N H S l D d E ti 10 t k t

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Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand - Entire 10-county market

Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots

n y act ve su v s on ata, not omes u t on o ots

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 10028 10185 9629 9319 9251 9429 9060 8074 7656 7165 6534

Net Inv. 2443.8 2592.5 2776.8 3116.4 2977.5 3142.8 3043.0 2961.6 3174.7 2795.9

30% Closing 3008.4 3055.5 2888.7 2795.7 2775.3 2828.7 2718.0 2422.2 2296.8 2149.5 1960.2

20% Closing 2005.6 2037.0 1925.8 1863.8 1850.2 1885.8 1812.0 1614.8 1531.2 1433.0 1306.8

Gross Inv 8381 8825 8871 8913 9178 9064 8271 7986 6910 5312

The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns

representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.

Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.

Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.

C t d I t N H

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Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 1 St. Louis City

Total

Max Preferred NFU Today 53.6 53.7 48.5 46.4 34.6 22.6 16.9 3.1 279.5

NFU 12 Months Back 33.4 85.1 59.4 43.6 21.8 7.2 2.3 0.3 253.0

NFU 8 Months Back 52.2 111.2 92.8 62.4 35.6 11.7 2.8 0.3 369.0

NFU 4 Months Back 99.6 246.4 225.5 168.1 102.9 40.0 11.3 0.3 894.0

Current NFU 108.3 139.7 125.4 117.6 51.2 20.2 13.3 1.3 577.0

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total

COUNTED INVENTORY 243.8 244.2 201.9 178.5 123.5 75.4 52.9 9.8 1130.0

NOT SOLD INVENTORY 97.5 139.7 125.4 117.6 51.2 20.2 13.3 2.0 566.8

PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 15.9 15.9 13.2 11.6 8.0 4.9 3.4 0.7 73.6

NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 6.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 6.4 4.1 3.9 2.9 7.7

2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal Note: In late 2008, in MG Area 1, som e units changed to rentals

135.5

108.3

104.5

139.7

76.5

125.4

60.9

117.6

72.3

51.2

55.2

20.2

39.6

13.3

8.51.3

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0N

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Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+

New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Hi t i l N H S l D d

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Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 1 St. Louis City

(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12 Mos

Closings 760 833 737 759 912 983 881 660 483 453 883

Net Inv. 444.8 523.4 510.2 477.0 437.3 431.0 426.0 408.5 886.0 566.8

30% Closing 228.0 249.9 221.1 227.7 273.6 294.9 264.3 198.0 144.9 135.9 264.9

20% Closing 152.0 166.6 147.4 151.8 182.4 196.6 176.2 132.0 96.6 90.6 176.6

Gross Inv 2224 2617 2551 2385 2190 2155 2130 1915 1872 1130





Counted Inventory New Homes

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Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 2 thru 8 St. Louis County

Total

Max Preferred NFU Today 53.4 68.6 49.8 22.5 19.6 36.6 28.8 15.4 294.8

NFU 12 Months Back 95.5 105.0 72.7 64.1 56.5 64.3 39.2 16.8 514.0

NFU 8 Months Back 107.4 117.1 84.2 61.5 50.0 59.4 38.0 14.6 532.0

NFU 4 Months Back 99.9 176.0 115.9 56.1 54.3 78.6 61.0 31.4 673.0

Current NFU 106.0 173.8 122.2 52.6 47.5 79.5 62.8 32.7 677.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.6 7.2 6.6 4.9 4.7 5.9 7.0 6.0 5.9

2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal

136.9

106.0

138.0

173.8

85.5

122.2

33.9

52.6

22.5

47.5

42.7

79.5

27.2

62.8

15.5

32.7

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0N

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Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs Demand

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Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 2 thru 8 St. Louis County


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 1834 1793 1723 1729 1691 1620 1417 1244 1172 1299 1255Net Inv. 493.8 561.6 506.7 451.2 486.7 509.2 523.3 529.1 637.7 617.6

30% Closing 550.2 537.9 516.9 518.7 507.3 486.0 425.1 373.2 351.6 389.7 376.5

20% Closing 366.8 358.6 344.6 345.8 338.2 324.0 283.4 248.8 234.4 259.8 251.0

Gross Inv 1830 1796 1782 1515 1692 1841 1743 1662 1527 1179






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Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 2 North St. Louis County


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 473 455 399 375 345 282 209 145 97 79 63Net Inv. 78.6 92.5 84.5 57.6 46.6 48.0 45.2 45.2 38.3 33.7

30% Closing 141.9 136.5 119.7 112.5 103.5 84.6 62.7 43.5 29.1 23.7 18.9

20% Closing 94.6 91.0 79.8 75.0 69.0 56.4 41.8 29.0 19.4 15.8 12.6

Gross Inv 264 239 219 163 133 113 88 75 63 60





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Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 4 Center / South St. Louis County


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 194 251 247 193 156 152 145 139 174 272 333Net Inv. 93.8 114.0 97.0 71.8 80.5 112.2 135.0 121.1 165.5 155.7

30% Closing 58.2 75.3 74.1 57.9 46.8 45.6 43.5 41.7 52.2 81.6 99.9

20% Closing 38.8 50.2 49.4 38.6 31.2 30.4 29.0 27.8 34.8 54.4 66.6

Gross Inv 360 365 394 349 396 554 601 574 516 403





Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand

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Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 5 South St. Louis County


0

100

200

300

400

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600

3/05 -

3/06

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11/05 -

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3/07

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7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

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3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

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3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 487 417 431 466 469 423 352 313 262 283 223Net Inv. 120.6 125.0 100.2 85.0 102.7 111.2 92.7 104.0 95.2 53.1

30% Closing 146.1 125.1 129.3 139.8 140.7 126.9 105.6 93.9 78.6 84.9 66.9

20% Closing 97.4 83.4 86.2 93.2 93.8 84.6 70.4 62.6 52.4 56.6 44.6

Gross Inv 373 386 306 196 282 275 221 205 186 92






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Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 6 Northwest St. Louis County


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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200

3/05 -

3/06

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7/06

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11/06

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7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

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Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

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7/06

11/05 -

11/06

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3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

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7/08

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11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 61 74 89 88 84 79 118 123 106 107 126

Net Inv. 16.5 17.8 21.6 28.5 46.4 39.0 37.3 45.7 46.6 88.4

30% Closing 18.3 22.2 26.7 26.4 25.2 23.7 35.4 36.9 31.8 32.1 37.8

20% Closing 12.2 14.8 17.8 17.6 16.8 15.8 23.6 24.6 21.2 21.4 25.2

Gross Inv 78 89 90 115 164 187 152 134 138 142






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pp yMG Area 7 Center / West St. Louis County


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

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7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

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3/08 -

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Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

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7/06

11/05 -

11/06

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3/07

7/06 -

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11/06 -

11/07

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3/08

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7/08

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11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 108 101 97 151 152 166 142 127 131 121 96Net Inv. 24.2 50.9 37.4 34.5 41.6 42.1 54.2 37.6 58.8 37.7

30% Closing 32.4 30.3 29.1 45.3 45.6 49.8 42.6 38.1 39.3 36.3 28.8

20% Closing 21.6 20.2 19.4 30.2 30.4 33.2 28.4 25.4 26.2 24.2 19.2

Gross Inv 113 110 112 90 146 145 107 109 102 66






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pp yMG Area 8 West St. Louis County


0

50

100

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200

250

300

350

400

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

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11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

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11/06 -

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7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

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Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

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11/06

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3/07

7/06 -

7/07

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11/07

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7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 370 324 268 249 231 253 208 193 172 179 138

Net Inv. 72.3 66.2 53.4 76.2 59.3 54.4 49.1 49.0 43.3 46.4

30% Closing 111.0 97.2 80.4 74.7 69.3 75.9 62.4 57.9 51.6 53.7 41.4

20% Closing 74.0 64.8 53.6 49.8 46.2 50.6 41.6 38.6 34.4 35.8 27.6

Gross Inv 215 167 149 144 153 155 159 149 122 81






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yMG Areas 9 thru 11 Jefferson County

TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 26.4 26.6 30.8 17.3 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 106.0

NFU 12 Months Back 53.1 67.7 81.2 41.4 11.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 256.0

NFU 8 Months Back 69.9 77.0 86.7 45.4 9.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 289.0

NFU 4 Months Back 44.5 65.4 82.0 40.8 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 240.0

Current NFU 49.4 72.0 74.4 36.9 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 241.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 3.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 3.9 1.3 1.4 0.0 4.5


70.8

49.4

48.9

72.0

54.2

74.4

29.5

36.9

5.5

8.42.70.0 0.60.0 0.00.00.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

N

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Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+




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MG Area 9 thru 11 Jefferson County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

200

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600

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1000

1200

1400

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

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11/06 -

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3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

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Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

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7/05 -

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3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

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7/07 -

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11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 1318 1327 1247 1105 1000 952 849 776 839 787 626

Net Inv. 204.7 210.7 251.3 238.1 213.0 243.5 248.1 282.9 228.6 232.2

30% Closing 395.4 398.1 374.1 331.5 300.0 285.6 254.7 232.8 251.7 236.1 187.8

20% Closing 263.6 265.4 249.4 221.0 200.0 190.4 169.8 155.2 167.8 157.4 125.2

Gross Inv 614 679 596 539 553 553 547 621 498 453






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MG Areas 13 thru 15B St. Charles County


NFU 12 Months Back 104.1 208.6 216.6 172.4 90.9 46.3 13.1 1.1 853.0

NFU 8 Months Back 120.3 247.4 235.3 172.3 87.2 39.6 9.8 1.2 913.0

NFU 4 Months Back 101.4 191.0 181.8 139.3 77.1 35.9 8.4 1.2 736.0

Current NFU 108.9 201.5 179.6 135.4 71.3 32.9 8.1 1.5 739.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.1 3.1 1.8 4.7


111.1

108.9

166.0

201.5

114.3

179.6

72.4

135.4

49.6

71.3

26.0

32.9

10.28.1

3.61.50.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

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Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandG A 13 1 S C C

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MG Areas 13 thru 15B - St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

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3/08

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Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

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11/06

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7/07

11/06 -

11/07

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3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 3658 3752 3555 3428 3051 2861 2770 2583 2558 2199 1835Net Inv. 803.1 729.9 854.9 818.1 833.5 980.4 820.9 858.7 693.7 725.0

30% Closing 1097.4 1125.6 1066.5 1028.4 915.3 858.3 831.0 774.9 767.4 659.7 550.5

20% Closing 731.6 750.4 711.0 685.6 610.2 572.2 554.0 516.6 511.6 439.8 367.0

Gross Inv 2121 2068 2217 1962 2271 2339 1808 1853 1516 1292





Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG A 13 E t St Ch l C t

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

55/75

MG Area 13 East St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

200

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600

800

1000

1200

3/05 -

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7/06

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11/07

3/07 -

3/08

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3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

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3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 995 1102 1041 1108 978 880 785 704 730 643 578Net Inv. 149.1 182.9 266.0 212.1 231.6 244.5 253.2 242.7 271.3 248.5

30% Closing 298.5 330.6 312.3 332.4 293.4 264.0 235.5 211.2 219.0 192.9 173.4

20% Closing 199.0 220.4 208.2 221.6 195.6 176.0 157.0 140.8 146.0 128.6 115.6

Gross Inv 636 661 788 689 791 780 692 703 651 512





Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG A 14A N th / C t l St Ch l C t

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

56/75

MG Area 14A North / Central St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

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11/06

3/06 -

3/07

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7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 1616 1525 1526 1423 1366 1320 1318 1261 1224 1059 826Net Inv. 319.2 297.7 365.3 412.0 394.9 472.8 332.5 381.9 230.7 260.6

30% Closing 484.8 457.5 457.8 426.9 409.8 396.0 395.4 378.3 367.2 317.7 247.8

20% Closing 323.2 305.0 305.2 284.6 273.2 264.0 263.6 252.2 244.8 211.8 165.2

Gross Inv 772 832 921 802 935 936 634 693 473 403





Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 14B Northwest St Charles County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

57/75

MG Area 14B Northwest St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 616 642 628 546 504 417 426 378 386 334 262

Net Inv. 227.8 186.1 160.7 147.9 145.2 164.3 124.8 143.6 106.4 124.3

30% Closing 184.8 192.6 188.4 163.8 151.2 125.1 127.8 113.4 115.8 100.2 78.6

20% Closing 123.2 128.4 125.6 109.2 100.8 83.4 85.2 75.6 77.2 66.8 52.4

Gross Inv 434 420 336 300 323 336 247 235 190 192





Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 15A South / Central St Charles County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

58/75

MG Area 15A South / Central St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 391 426 306 292 164 206 206 215 176 125 142Net Inv. 93.4 55.5 55.0 38.0 47.8 87.3 99.0 82.3 77.7 85.6

30% Closing 117.3 127.8 91.8 87.6 49.2 61.8 61.8 64.5 52.8 37.5 42.6

20% Closing 78.2 85.2 61.2 58.4 32.8 41.2 41.2 43.0 35.2 25.0 28.4

Gross Inv 228 123 135 136 188 248 206 192 176 163





Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 15B Southwest St Charles County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

59/75

MG Area 15B Southwest St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 40 57 54 59 39 38 35 25 42 38 27Net Inv. 13.5 7.6 7.8 8.1 13.9 11.5 11.4 8.2 7.5 6.0

30% Closing 12.0 17.1 16.2 17.7 11.7 11.4 10.5 7.5 12.6 11.4 8.1

20% Closing 8.0 11.4 10.8 11.8 7.8 7.6 7.0 5.0 8.4 7.6 5.4

Gross Inv 51 32 37 35 34 39 29 30 26 22


repre senting sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.


Next 12 Mos - T he activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.

Counted Inventory - New HomesMG Areas 16A and 16B St Clair County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

60/75

MG Areas 16A and 16B St. Clair County


NFU 12 Months Back 60.1 106.8 120.5 58.1 20.2 8.8 3.6 0.0 378.0

NFU 8 Months Back 53.1 77.2 92.8 41.6 16.9 9.4 3.9 0.2 295.0

NFU 4 Months Back 46.4 72.8 90.8 36.2 15.0 7.8 4.0 0.2 273.0

Current NFU 42.4 60.6 63.0 31.8 14.5 6.2 2.7 0.0 221.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 4.0 1.5 0.0 3.7


28.6

42.4

29.4

60.6

33.7

63.0

22.6

31.8

14.1

14.5

3.7

6.21.12.7

0.00.00.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Nu

m

b

e

r

o

f

Ne

w

H

o

m

e

s

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 16A and 16B St. Clair County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

61/75

MG Areas 16A and 16B St. Clair County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 1454 1509 1531 1492 1431 1391 1299 1209 961 863 677Net Inv. 281.8 327.1 374.2 398.5 313.7 291.6 358.1 267.7 247.9 208.2

30% Closing 436.2 452.7 459.3 447.6 429.3 417.3 389.7 362.7 288.3 258.9 203.1

20% Closing 290.8 301.8 306.2 298.4 286.2 278.2 259.8 241.8 192.2 172.6 135.4

Gross Inv 908 950 983 894 800 722 689 655 505 354





Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 17A thru 17D Madison County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

62/75

MG Areas 17A thru 17D Madison County


NFU 12 Months Back 19.3 83.4 71.0 29.3 16.1 10.8 1.6 0.6 232.0

NFU 8 Months Back 17.9 76.1 68.3 32.0 15.6 9.8 1.8 0.7 222.0

NFU 4 Months Back 16.2 57.9 54.4 25.5 8.6 5.5 0.9 0.1 169.0

Current NFU 25.8 51.1 49.0 25.7 11.3 8.3 1.5 0.4 173.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.7 3.7 4.7 5.1 5.7 7.1 2.8 2.0 4.5


41.1

25.8

66.6

51.1

62.9

49.0

30.4

25.7

11.2

11.3

7.9

8.3

2.41.5 0.70.40.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Nu

m

b

e

r

o

f

Ne

w

H

o

m

e

s

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 17A thru 17D Madison County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

63/75

G eas t u ad so Cou ty(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/05 -

3/06

7/05 -

7/06

11/05 -

11/06

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings 1004 971 836 806 733 744 631 554 559 540 441Net Inv. 215.7 239.8 279.5 279.1 241.8 205.7 226.1 216.1 160.9 166.0

30% Closing 301.2 291.3 250.8 241.8 219.9 223.2 189.3 166.2 167.7 162.0 132.3

20% Closing 200.8 194.2 167.2 161.2 146.6 148.8 126.2 110.8 111.8 108.0 88.2

Gross Inv 684 715 742 704 681 542 527 532 410 396





Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 18 thru 19 - Monroe County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

64/75

y


NFU 12 Months Back 11.6 20.4 22.0 10.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 67.0

NFU 8 Months Back 12.7 17.6 18.8 9.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 61.0

NFU 4 Months Back 8.1 13.9 10.2 7.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.0

Current NFU 10.6 17.1 11.1 6.5 2.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 48.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 6.8 7.0 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.4 0.0 4.8


3.5

10.6

5.7

17.1

3.7

11.1

2.7

6.5

4.6

2.5

1.40.2

0.50.1 0.00.00.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Nu

m

b

e

r

o

f

Ne

w

H

o

m

e

s

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 18 thru 19 - Monroe County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

65/75

y(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)

0

50

100

150

200

250

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings na na na 0 97 168 217 162 150 135 106Net Inv. na na na 67.8 68.5 53.2 60.2 58.0 39.7 42.0

30% Closing na na na 0.0 29.1 50.4 65.1 48.6 45.0 40.5 31.8

20% Closing na na na 0.0 19.4 33.6 43.4 32.4 30.0 27.0 21.2

Gross Inv na na na 164 176 127 125 105 86 70





Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 20 thru 21 - Franklin County

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66/75


NFU 12 Months Back 32.6 37.5 35.3 19.6 11.3 6.6 0.2 0.0 143.0

NFU 8 Months Back 34.5 33.3 32.3 17.0 9.4 5.1 0.5 0.1 132.0

NFU 4 Months Back 36.3 30.5 30.3 11.8 6.2 3.6 0.3 0.0 119.0

Current NFU 24.4 26.8 27.6 13.0 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 101.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 5.5 8.2 8.3 6.5 7.7 7.1 1.4 0.0 7.0


39.6

24.4

23.0

26.8

22.1

27.6

10.4

13.0

5.0

5.8

1.73.1

0.20.4 0.00.00.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Nu

m

b

e

r

o

f

Ne

w

H

o

m

e

s

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 20 thru 21 - Franklin County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

67/75


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings na na na 0 102 195 285 246 244 205 171

Net Inv. na na na 141.9 147.2 158.4 138.2 125.4 115.3 99.930% Closing na na na 0.0 30.6 58.5 85.5 73.8 73.2 61.5 51.3

20% Closing na na na 0.0 20.4 39.0 57.0 49.2 48.8 41.0 34.2

Gross Inv na na na 295 293 298 267 265 203 203





Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 22 thru 23 - Warren County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

68/75


NFU 12 Months Back 40.0 23.6 8.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 74.0

NFU 8 Months Back 37.8 21.0 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.0

NFU 4 Months Back 41.8 19.3 4.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 67.0

Current NFU 30.8 16.7 3.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 52.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 0.0 2.4


31.3

30.8

11.9

16.7

3.63.0

1.70.7

0.90.4 0.80.2 0.90.2 0.00.00.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Nu

m

b

e

r

o

f

Ne

w

H

o

m

e

s

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 22 thru 23 - Warren County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

69/75


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09

Next 12

Mos


3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings na na na 0 64 198 270 262 309 338 269

Net Inv. na na na 68.5 65.3 90.3 73.9 65.2 68.0 53.0

30% Closing na na na 0.0 19.2 59.4 81.0 78.6 92.7 101.4 80.7

20% Closing na na na 0.0 12.8 39.6 54.0 52.4 61.8 67.6 53.8

Gross Inv na na na 129 155 160 142 134 126 103





Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 24 thru 25 - Lincoln County

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

70/75


NFU 12 Months Back 56.5 60.7 35.6 13.5 9.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 178.0

NFU 8 Months Back 57.1 44.4 29.3 11.4 10.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 154.0

NFU 4 Months Back 36.1 27.9 21.7 9.6 7.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 104.0

Current NFU 34.3 26.1 17.9 6.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 89.0



Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total




NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.8


12.5

34.3

14.9

26.1

11.3

17.9

3.1

6.6

1.0

3.80.30.4 0.00.0 0.00.00.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Nu

m

b

e

r

o

f

Ne

w

H

o

m

e

s

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+



Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 24 thru 25 - Lincoln County

(Only active subdivision data not homes built on odd lots)

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

71/75


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

3/06 -3/07

7/06 -7/07

11/06 -11/07

3/07 -3/08

7/07 -7/08

11/07 -11/08

3/08 -3/09

Next 12Mos


3/06 -

3/07

7/06 -

7/07

11/06 -

11/07

3/07 -

3/08

7/07 -

7/08

11/07 -

11/08

3/08 -

3/09Next 12 Mos

Closings na na na 0 170 317 441 378 381 346 271

Net Inv. na na na 176.3 170.6 179.5 168.4 150.0 96.9 85.230% Closing na na na 0.0 51.0 95.1 132.3 113.4 114.3 103.8 81.3

20% Closing na na na 0.0 34.0 63.4 88.2 75.6 76.2 69.2 54.2

Gross Inv na na na 326 367 327 293 244 167 132





How Can A MarketGraphics

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72/75

How Can A MarketGraphics

Forecast Help You Succeed?


Your Goals by:

1. DemographicsHomebuyers First!

2. Communities and Home Sites

3. New Homes

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

73/75

Check Out Our Blog Often For More Helpful Tips!Dont Pack Up Your Toys and Go Home

8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109

74/75

Don t Pack Up Your Toys and Go Home

Monday, February 23rd, 2009I was out visiting a sampling of new home communities from Columbia, Illinois to St. Louis County toJefferson County to Wentzville (a lot of windshield time but thats what we do). I saw some fairlyclean sites that looked to me as though they were completely finished with selling homes (theyarent). This ends the good news.I also saw:Deteriorated and haphazard signage (if there was any at all)Models (that I could find) were closed and in some cases, no hours were postedNone of the fifteen sites had an information boxFlattened tires on work vehiclesHeaps of construction debrisIf I wanted to buy a house in one of the sites I visited I would not know who to talk to or where to gofor information just imagine an overly cautious buyers reaction.

Two of the sites had some new signage, which was great but the signage color selected wascautionary yellow with black lettering. Cautionary yellow is the color of cautionary type signage likethese:

In a market where every little detail counts, this would probably not be the best color scheme.I talk with our clients everyday about todays market realities and understand we cant afford to dothings the way we once did but we cant just pack up our toys and go home. There are buyers outthere and we need to be available when they are! There are low-cost or no-cost solutionsavailable! What about a self-touring site? Or a centralized sales zone? We need to concentrate

activity. I have tons of solutions. Lets chat about this call me today!

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Joe ZanolaMarketGraphics St. Louis Region9315 Manchester RoadSt. Louis, MO 63119(314) 918-7200

MG STL Gen Pres 032109

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