MEXICAN FOREIGN POLICY: TRENDS AND CONTINUITIES Under a Dominant Party NAFTA as Departure Post-NAFTA: The Fox Era Post-NAFTA: The Calderón Era Post-NAFTA: The Peña Nieto Era And Now? Jockeying for Position
Dec 26, 2015
MEXICAN FOREIGN POLICY:TRENDS AND CONTINUITIES
Under a Dominant PartyNAFTA as DeparturePost-NAFTA: The Fox EraPost-NAFTA: The Calderón EraPost-NAFTA: The Peña Nieto EraAnd Now? Jockeying for Position
PRINCIPLES UNDER THE PRINonintervention
Enshrined in 1930sProtection of regime
Pacifism (e.g. peaceful resolution of disputes)Domestic role for militaryDiplomacy in Central America
NationalismAssertions of sovereigntyNationalization of oil 1938
Preoccupation with USAHistorical memoriesInsistence on autonomy (eg re Cuba)Emphasis on “principles” not interests
MEXICO AS REGIONAL LEADER
Credentials Stable regime under civilian rule Revolutionary legacy Economic growth (“Mexican miracle”) Relationship with USA Absence of clear rivals
Policies Protector of Cuba Role in Central America (eg joint declaration with
France) Treaty of Tlatelolco 1962
THE BILATERAL COMMISSION
Tension and conflict in U.S.-Mexican relationsBlue-ribbon commission formed by Ford
Foundation (1985-89)Co-chairs: William D. Rogers and Hugo
MargáinReleased book-length report in both countries
+ 5 volumes of scholarly papers (1989)Ambiguities on a bilateral FTAImpacts in Mexico > USA
Shaping terms of debate Focus on drugs and migration Analysis of public opinion Comparison with EU
NOTES ON PERSONNELUSA
Lawrence Eagleburger, Secretary of State Henry Cisnero, Mayor of San Antonio Nancy Landon Kassebaum, Senator from Kansas Robert McNamara, himself
Mexico Rosario Green, Secretary of Foreign Relations Juan José Bremer, Ambassador to USA Héctor Aguilar Camín, Cultural Journalism National Award,
Literature Award Fernando Canales Clariond, Secretary of Economy and of
Energy; Governor of Nuevo León Carlos Fuentes, Miguel de Cervanates Prize, Belisario
Domínguez Medal of Honor Arturo Sarukhan (RA), Ambassador to USA
NAFTA? WHY? WHY THEN?
Global Scenario: Economic multipolarity and rivalry (Japan, EU) Geopolitical uncertainty Emphasis on geoeconomics
U.S. Perspectives: Supplement to FTA with Canada Support for neoliberal reforms in Mexico Growing Mexican-American population within U.S.
Mexican Perspectives: Exhaustion of alternatives (Europe, Japan) Need to stimulate growth in light of debt crisis Perpetuation of Salinista policies Fundamental change in orientatioin
NAFTA: WHAT IS IT?
A “free trade” area: Not a customs union Nor a common market
Characteristics:• Uneven levels of development• Cultural and political variation• Hub-and-spoke arrangements (with U.S. at center)• Absence of supranational authority (preservation of sovereignty)
ASSESSING RESULTS: THE PROBLEM OF CAUSE-AND-EFFECT
NAFTA in comparison with:
• Initial expectations (and political rhetoric)
• Liberalization (mid-1980s)
• Global and/or U.S. economic conditions
• Long-term economic and social trends
• Short-term shocks (e.g., Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95)
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:EXPANSION OF TRADE
General effects:• More efficiency (in production and consumption)• Greater market size (thus higher returns)• Tougher competition
Questions:
1. Who takes part in the trade? (55 % large firms, 40% maquiladoras, > 5% small firms (~ 2.1 million firms)
2. What about trade diversion?
EXPANSION OF TRADE, 1993-2005 (millions USD $$)
GDP GROWTH IN MEXICO
1945-1980 ~ 6.5%
1995 -7.0 % 1996 5.1 1997 6.8 1998 4.9 1999 3.8 2000 6.6 2001 -0.2 2002 0.7 2003 1.5 2004 4.6 2005 2.8 2006 5.0 2007 3.2 2008 1.3 2009 -6.8 2010 5.1 2011 4.0 2012 4.0 2013 1.1
Unforeseen Shocks:
Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95September 11, 2001Drug-related violence, 2008-presentGlobal financial crisis, 2008-11
Current Challenges:
Expansion of the development gapInfrastructure (including roads)MigrationEnergySecurity problems
POLITICAL EFFECTS
The Public Assertion: Free Trade = Democracy
The Silent Bargain: International Dimensions
• Political stability and social peace
• Access to petroleum
• Leverage vis-à-vis economic rivals
• Compliance on foreign policy
HEMISPHERIC INTEGRATION?
1. Expansion of NAFTA (through new memberships)
2. FTAA negotiating process (RIP)
3. Bilaterals and minilaterals:• U.S.-Chile• U.S.-Central America (+ Dominican Republic)• U.S.-Peru• U.S.-Colombia• U.S.-Panama• Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru + others?)
POST-NAFTA: THE FOX ERA (2000-06)
Democratic “bonus,” promotion of democracy and human rights
Deliberate departure from PRI, turn toward USA
Expectations re immigration reformSupport for FTAAClaim to regional leadership, conflict with
Hugo ChávezPost-9/11
Slow response on attacks Temporary seat on UN Security Council Opposition to invasion of Iraq Disputes with Cuba
POST-NAFTA: THE CALDERÓN ERA
(2006-12)
Cooperation with USA on drugs (Mérida Initiatve)
Softening of stance toward CubaFocus on position in Latin America (eg
CELAC)Opposition to Honduran coupDisappointment over ChinaLowered pri0rity for foreign policy
POST-NAFTA: THE PEÑA NIETO ERA
(2012- )Cooperation with USAFocus on infrastructure and investmentAlianza del Pacífico, Trans-Pacific PartnershipHigh-level meetings with China (some
projects cancelled)Observe USA-Cuba rapprochementConcern over Central AmericaAmbivalence toward Latin America
NB: Loss of popularity over economy and deaths of students
AND NOW?
“jockeying for position”