Methodology at the Office for National Statistics

Gareth James([email protected])

Assistant Statistician

ONS

Methodology at the Office for National Statistics

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Talk Outline

• The Office for National Statistics

• My experiences at ONS

• Careers available at ONS, and how to apply

• Your questions

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National Statistics

• NS: Official (Government) Statistics produced independently, to high standards, to meet user requirements, etc.

• Statistics Commission to regulate and oversee

• Common standards with Europe: the EU, other National Statistics Institutes, etc.

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Government Statistical Service (GSS)

• Within 30 government departments and agencies, including:

HM Treasury Scottish Executive

Department of Trade & Industry (DTI) Cabinet Office

Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) Inland Revenue

HM Customs & Excise Department of Health (DOH)

Ministry of Defence (MOD) National Assembly for Wales

Office for National Statistics (ONS)

• Largest UK employer of statisticians - 800 nationally

• ONS, largest employer of statisticians in the GSS

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Office for National Statistics(ONS)

• A government agency, produces official and National Statistics about the UK

• Production and analysis of statistics on:– the economy, labour market – population, health, society

• Registrations

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Key ONS Products

• Retail Prices Index• Producer Price Index• Index of Production• GDP• Births, Marriages and

Deaths

• Population Census• Regional Statistics• Retail Sales Index• Unemployment Statistics• Social Surveys• Cancer figures

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Our Customers

• Parliament, ministers• Other government departments• Bank of England• The city, businesses• Europe• Academia and research• Media• Everyone

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Office for National Statistics Locations Staff

• Newport Economic statistics, methodology 1280

• London Economic & Social statistics, methodology 1040

• Titchfield Population statistics, methodology 850

• Southport Registrations - births, deaths, marriages 750

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About Myself

• Academic background: Cardiff University– BSc in Mathematics– PhD in Statistics– University teaching for a year

• Which way now?– Stay in academia or teaching?– Try something new?

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I wanted a career in which I would ...

– use my technical statistical knowledge– have good promotion prospects– take responsibilities– be given good training opportunities– stay in Cardiff

• Joined ONS in October 2001, as an Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream):– Sample Design & Estimation centre of

Methodology Group

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Structure of ONS

S o u rces D irec to ra te M e th o do lo gy G ro up A n a lys is D ire c to ra te

O N S

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Methodology Group

• Aims:– to achieve integrated and coherent statistics

across ONS– to facilitate sharing of best practice

• To achieve these:– work closely with business areas to achieve best

use of appropriate methods, etc.– provide expertise, guidance, advice

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Methodology Group

• Sample design and estimation

• Data collection• Editing and imputation• Analysis methods• Time series analysis

• Index numbers• Spatial analysis and

modelling• Statistical Disclosure control• Quality measurement• Metadata

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My Experiences

• Project work– Vacancies Survey– Register Dynamics– Retail Sales Inquiry– New Earnings Survey– Investigation of bias from small business guarantees

• Produce and present reports

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New Earnings Survey Redesign

• Survey of earnings, hours, pension arrangements• Currently a 1% sample of NI numbers in PAYE

schemes• From 2004 survey will

– be stratified– include non-PAYE jobs (low pay)– have results weighted– include standard errors for all estimates

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NES Redesign - Sample Design

• Find which variables are best correlated with earnings

• Propose to stratify by occupation, sex, ageband, workplace region

• Relies on previous data for some information• Post-stratify for calculation of results

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NES Redesign - Estimation

• Estimates will be weighted to account for non-response - design weights:

ai = Nh(s) / nh(s)

• Calibrate using LFS employee totals - calibration weights:

gi = Nh(ps) / j in h(ps) aj

• Weighted estimate of mean:

mean(y) = s aj gj yj / s aj gj

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NES Redesign - Standard Errors

• Aim to publish standard errors with all estimates• New methodology to estimate standard errors of

weighted quantiles (based on estimation of the density)

• Software: – Generalised Estimation System (GES) and SAS

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Summarising Thoughts

• Interesting job, with many aspects, and good potential

• Project work - many parallels to academic research, though on a shorter timescale

• Experience from academic research very useful for MG work - e.g. report writing, working to deadlines

• Lots of training: SAS, sampling, Consultancy Skills, etc.

• Practical use of work done

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What’s available?

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Posts in ONS Methodology Group

Newport

London

Titchfield

Positions are also available in other parts of ONS

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Posts in ONS Methodology Group(apply direct to ONS)

• Senior Methodologist – Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 4

years relevant experience in research and statistics

• Methodologist– Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 2

years relevant experience in research and statistics

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Posts in ONS Methodology Group(apply direct to ONS)

• Assistant Methodologist – Qualifications: min. 2(i) in statistics, maths, social science

that includes substantial statistics. Higher degree desirable– Progression to Methodologist after 2 years

• For methodology posts, apply directly to MG in ONS via the continuous recruitment programme

• Statistical Officer– Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline – Application deadline (Newport): Spring 2003, dates TBC

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Posts in ONS(apply through CSSB)

• Civil Service Selection Board (CSSB) – 1.5 day assessment centre (held in London)– Next closing date:

2 May 2003

for interviews 11-12 and 18-19 June

• Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream) – accelerated promotion to (branch head within six years?)– Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline– Can apply when in-post already

• Statistical Officer also available

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Salaries

• Divisional Director £££s• Principal Methodologist / Statistician £34k - £48k

(Branch head)

Starting Salaries:• Senior Methodologist £26.1k• Methodologist £21.4k• Assistant Methodologist £18.7k• Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream) £21.1k

• Statistical Officer £16.5k

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Other benefits

• Pension (final salary scheme)• Annual leave (25 days after first year)• Flexible working hours• Diversity of opportunities• Training (e.g. MSc in Official Statistics - includes survey

design, sampling, index numbers, estimation, regression, data analysis,

etc.)• Shop, restaurant, gym• Sports and social activities• Travel and leisure discounts

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What to do if you’re interested

• Sponsors’ reception: come and talk to us! [email protected], [email protected]

• Take away our flyers• Leave your contact details for more information

• E-mail for application forms (addresses on next slide)

• Job advertisements appear in regional and national press

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Contacts

• (Assistant) Methodologist continuous recruitment:– [email protected] (for MG at any site)

• Other site recruitment: – [email protected]– [email protected]

Websites: www.statistics.gov.uk/recruitment/

www.faststream.gov.uk