1 “Training for warfighting is our number one priority in peace and in war. Warfighting readiness is derived from tactical and technical competence and confidence. Competence relates to the ability to fight our doctrine through tactical and technical execution. Confidence is the individual and collective belief that we can do all things better than the adversary and the unit possesses the trust and will to accomplish the mission.” FM 7-0, Training the Force The Attrition Gordian Knot: A Meta-Analysis Unofficial The presentation represents the author’s views and do not represent DA or DOD Policy. Arthur Schopenhauer's three stages of truth: "First, it is considered absurd and ignored or ridiculed. Next, it is considered dangerous to the status quo and viciously attacked. Lastly, it is considered wholesome, indeed, self- evident."
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
1
“Training for warfighting is our number one priority in peace and in war. Warfighting readiness is derived from tactical and technical competence and confidence. Competence relates to the ability to
fight our doctrine through tactical and technical execution. Confidence is the individual and collective belief that we can do all things better than the adversary and the unit possesses the trust
and will to accomplish the mission.”FM 7-0, Training the Force
“Training for warfighting is our number one priority in peace and in war. Warfighting readiness is derived from tactical and technical competence and confidence. Competence relates to the ability to
fight our doctrine through tactical and technical execution. Confidence is the individual and collective belief that we can do all things better than the adversary and the unit possesses the trust
and will to accomplish the mission.”FM 7-0, Training the Force
The Attrition Gordian Knot:A Meta-Analysis
UnofficialThe presentation represents the author’s
views and do not represent DA or DOD Policy.
Arthur Schopenhauer's three stages of truth:
"First, it is considered absurd and ignored or ridiculed.
Next, it is considered dangerous to the status quo
and viciously attacked.
Lastly, it is considered wholesome, indeed, self-
evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer's three stages of truth:
"First, it is considered absurd and ignored or ridiculed.
Next, it is considered dangerous to the status quo
and viciously attacked.
Lastly, it is considered wholesome, indeed, self-
evident."
2
NG male1,59712%
NG female6345%
USAR female
6155%
USAR male9107%
AC Male7,10151%
AC female2,75920%
DischargesBy Gender &ComponentBy Volume
Inf 11X1,93421%
AIT1,55416%
FLW**1,19112%
Benning3323%
Eng 21B2072%
MP 31B2302%
Chem 74D1461%
RECBN98710%
Jackson**1,63217%
Knox1451%
Arm 19K6226%
Sill2623%
Art 13X6036%
AC RECBN, BCT, OSUT, and AIT Allocation of Discharges by ATC, MOS, and Function (RECBN/AIT)
• 84% of IET discharge attrition volume is in BCT & OSUT.• 41+% of IET discharge attrition volume is at 2 sites, even
though rates are “good”.• 30% of AC-RC IET discharges are women.
FY05 IET AC-USAR-NG Discharge %
12.6
14.8
10.5
8.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%
FY05 Discharge % 12.6 14.8 10.5 8.3
Total AC-RC AC Only USAR Only NG Only
Where Discharges Occur by Volume12 MRARate By Component
3
-80% -30% 20% 70% 120% 170%
% Change in Risk of IET Attrition
Rec
ruit
Do
mai
n
Organizational
Behavioral
Health
Physical Fitness
Demographic FemaleAFQT IIIB
Not Tier I
Bonus
Never thoughtabout quittingHigh School
Pre-accession
Injury
High BMI
LowBMI
High Initial
FitnessOld
>26 yearsChild-ren
EntryPay
Grade
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic
Hx shortness of breath
Combat ArmsMOS
Hx backpain
Hx chest pain
Current smoker
Hx depression
Ever suspended/expelled
• Base-case IET attrition risk is 15%• Further left or right of the center line means increased risk (or less risk) of attrition. • Bubble size is relative size of RA accessions that are associated with that
factor. 20% female bubble is about 1/2 the size of the 33% TSC IIIB bubble. • Not Tier 1 (10%)• Female (20%)• AFQT IIIB (30%)
Law Waiver Hx fainting
Young<19 years
Regular Army IET Attrition Risk Profile
4
Objectives
1. Meet the Army’s mission, manpower and quality objectives.
2. Soldier graduates who can “mobilize, deploy, fight, sustain, and win any conflict” as units with Warrior Ethos and Values.
3. Soldier graduates who are physically healthy, task-relevant physically fit, mentally resilient, and deployable.
5
BLUF
• Highest quality force in history.• Accessions processes are a complex
system (Six Sigma).• Important progress in ‘fighting & winning’ in
last 2 years.• Reducing ‘Preventable attrition’ requires
‘actionable intelligence’ across the processes.
• High-value target is reducing and/or treating injuries, especially among women.
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HSDG
Cat I-IIIA
Cat IV
High Q
uality
Some college
First-Term Attrition
FY79
FY02
Facts: Highest Quality Accessions In Army History1979-2002
Policy• OSUT emphasis• Mini-OSUT for VOTEC grad• Combat survival (more trng pts)• Prepare for AIT (as needed)• Prepare for UOA• TR 350-70 aligned with FM 7.0• BCT Redesign: Individual &
Collective design & tasks integrated
• ENDEX is respective squad ARTEP or ARTEP slice.
• Ranges designed as Perimeter slice.
Programs• “You Can Make It”• Combat Chaplain Values
• Qualify w/ assigned weapon• Correct malfunctions w/ assigned weapon• Engage targets with M240B MG• Engage targets with M60 or M249 MG• Engage targets with M2 Cal. 50 MG• Engage targets with MK-19 MG• Correct malfunctions of a MG (M2, M240B, M249, MK-19) • Engage targets with weapon using a night vision sight (AN/PVS-4, AN/PAS-13, AN/TVS-5)• Engage targets using an aiming light (AN/PEQ-2A, AN/PAQ-4) • Employ mines and hand grenades
• Determine location on ground (terrain association, map, & GPS)• Navigate from one point to another (dismounted & mounted)• Move over, through, or around obstacles (except minefields) • Prepare/operate a vehicle in a convoy
• Perform voice communications (SITREP, SPOTREP, Call for Fire, & MEDEVAC)• Use visual signaling techniques
• Move under direct fire• React to indirect fire (dismounted & mounted)• React to direct fire (dismounted & mounted)• React to unexploded ordnance hazard• React to man-to-man contact (Combatives)• React to chemical or biological attack/hazard• Decontaminate yourself & individual equipment using chemical decontaminating kits• Maintain equipment • Evaluate a casualty• Perform first aid for open wound (abdominal, chest, & head)• Perform first aid for bleeding of extremity• Select temporary fighting position
• Perform movements techniques during an urban operation• Engage targets during an urban operation• Enter a building during an urban operation
~40 Warrior Tasks
Red untrainedAmber
familiarizedGreen
proficient
Every Soldier …
IET Review Task Force
Core Warrior Tasks 9 Week Improved POI
‘Fighting and Winning’ Training Has Improved
9
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
• No “smoking gun” in attrition studies.• No “silver bullet” solution.• Determining variance is key to future interventions.
• ‘Gold Standard’ is balancing absolute risk and manpower supply.• Relative Risk models distort actual group performance.• Bio-data variables have low predictive validity and are not causal.• Caution: Type I & II error rates: 1% of 400k = 4k
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
11
1. Less applied fitness and experience (CHPPM). 2. Less group shower experience (TRAC) (demise of fitness in schools).
Privacy big issue for adolescents.3. Poorer nutrition (NAHANES)(less milk drinking, fast foods in HS
cafeterias, etc.). 4. High rate of entry mild anemias (females)(USARIEM).5. Osteopenia (varies by race & gender)(Navy).6. Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) (Navy, VA, USMC, CDC) (high
rates of associated high-risk behaviors). 7. Quad-ham imbalances (Sportsmetrics) leading to knee/lower limb
injuries (females).8. Smoking (linked to attrition, poor bone remodeling, and injuries).9. “Emotional Intelligence” (adaptive skill sets)(vary by education)10. High % “overfat,” especially minorities and females.11. 10% will have Chlamydia.
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
Key issues:• Can we identify who will succeed?• Screen out or develop in?• Etiology: Them or us?• Are “standards” valid?
12Wolfe, J. (1996-2000). Adaptation to First-Term Enlistment Among Women in the Marine Corps. DAMD 17-95-1-5047.
1. More ACE factors increase risk.2. Associated high-risk behaviors
risk somewhat, but does not automatically mean all are
ruined.
13
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
1. Marketing de-emphasizes incentives.2. Army MOS needs drive contracts and incentives.3. ASVAB Interest Inventory not used to align applicant
to MOS.4. DA PAM 611-21 MOS descriptions not ‘fully
accurate.’5. MOS entry standards may not be fully validated. 6. Medical exam relies on self-reported history.7. Recruiting shortfalls lead to short-term Cat IV surges.8. Ringers.9. Tattoo standards.10. BF standards.11. Recruiter incentive system (ceiling effect).
Recruiting Policies & Processes
I
II
IIIB
IV
IIIA
8%
28%
17%
17%
21%
14
20
36
19
56
24
55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
%
Caucasion Black Hispanic
Male
Female
% 17-20 y/o Who Do Not Meet Army Accession Weight Standards
Source: Nolte et al, “U.S. Military Weight Standards: What Percentage of U.S. Adults Meet the Current Standards?” The American Journal of Medicine, Vol 113, Oct 15, 2002
Body Fat Standards Have Significant Impact
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
15
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
Attrition Is Not the Only Criteria
I
II
IIIB
IV
IIIA
8%
28%
17%
17%
21%
Strategy Questions:1. Where do you want to make-up shortfalls from?2. What MOS are affected?
Cat IV?
High Cat IIIB?
16
1. Commanders’ and NCOs’ attitudes are important.
2. Challenging POI.3. Attrition and TTHS reduction mutually
exclusive.4. Treatment programs can be highly
effective.
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
Training Policies & Processes
17
1. G1 Insist-Assist Study showed leaders’ attitudes affected attrition rates.a. “High Attrition Leaders” believe they were ‘gate guarders.’b. “Low Attrition Leaders” believed they were developing Soldiers.
2. Emotional Events (‘high fear events,’ ‘food deprivation’, ‘sleep deprivation,’ ‘extreme PT,’ etc.) may be mis-perceived as preparing Soldiers for war, or strengthening them to cope with stress.
The Dark Side
18
Recruit A Recruit C
Recruit D
A Dark Side Example: Body Hardening (Sept-Oct 04)
NOTthe
Army
19
“The discipline which makes the soldiers of a free country reliable in battle is not to be gained by harsh or tyrannical treatment. On the contrary, such treatment is far more likely to destroy then to make an Army.
It is possible to impart instruction and to give commands in such a manner and such a tone of voice as to inspire in the soldier no feeling, but an intense desire to obey, while the opposite manner and tone of voice cannot fail to excite strong resentment and a desire to disobey.
The one mode or the other of dealing with subordinates springs from a corresponding spirit in the breast of the commander. He who feels the respect which is due to others cannot fail to inspire in them regard for himself while he who feels and hence manifest disrespect towards others, especially his inferiors, cannot fail to inspire in them hatred for himself.”
20
USMA Peak Performance ModelManaging the Moment
Attention Control
Setting the GoalVisualization
ImageryPositive/Effective
Thinking
Stress Management
Performance
“Concentration amidst distraction”
“Excellence under pressure”
“Becoming what wethink about most”
“What you see is what you get”
“Eye on the prize”
Managing the Moment
Attention Control
Setting the Goal
Stress Management
Winning Performance
“Concentration amidst distraction”
“Excellence under pressure”
“Becoming what wethink about most”
“What you see is what you get”
“Eye on the prize”
• Dr. Scott Graham, ARI – Infantry Forces Research Unit, found time management, command of the basics, skill mastery, combat focus, visualization, repetition, and the use of job aids to be the most critical training that prepared Soldiers for efficient and effective task accomplishment under life-threatening, fast-paced, and stressful conditions (ARI Newsletter – Volume 13, Number 3).
• In 1998, the United States Olympic Committee summarized the survey results from 296 Olympic team athletes and 46 Olympic team coaches and found concrete confirmation that human performance at elite levels is heavily dependent upon intangible, mental factors, i.e. confidence despite setbacks, concentration amidst distractions, and composure during times of stress.
• Bottomline: High fidelity task repetition to standard prepares Soldiers for combat success. It is why the Combat Training Centers (CTC) and training devices like MILES, paint balls, etc. are worth the multi-billion dollar investment.
21
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
Trend: BCT Hours Per Day Trend: BCT Hours Per Day
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
1980 1981 1983 1987 1990 1993 1997 2005
PersonalMealsSleepPOI
BCT POI growth (notional data for 2005) affects both Cadre and Soldiers.
Source: MAJ Moten study
22
Degrading sleep degrades learning, mood, and health.Prof Mary Carskadon, Brown University
Sleep1. Teens need 8.5-9.25 hours of sleep each night. By mid 20s: 8 hrs.2. Natural biological sleep period 11 pm – 8 am (Melatonin secretion).3. 0400-0600 is peak time for subjective sleepiness.
1. BLUF: The FTU PCU lowers overall discharge attrition by 500-800+ Soldiers (0.4-0.8+%), as well as lowers course attrition and injury rates.
2. 4%-7% of men and 10%-24% of women fail the RECBN 1-1-1 assessment historically. 50-75% of the PCU at GIT sites will be women.
3. PCU Results:
a. Lower course attrition: In the “1-1-1 Fail No PCU” group, men are 2.5 times and women are 1.5 times more likely to attrit from BCT.
b. Lower discharge attrition: In the “1-1-1 Fail No PCU” group, men are 3.0 times and women are 1.9 times more likely to be discharged from BCT.
c. Lower injury rates.
d. The USMA experimental PCU-X vice the traditional PCU improved female outcomes, but male outcomes were worse (but still better than no PCU). Recommendation is that USAPFS design a new PCU PT POI.
4. The optimum solution would be a 12 week BCT PCU company to maximize program flexibility, maintain bonding, provide non-PT training, etc.
24
Admiral Nelson 11 March 1804 to Dr. Mosely:
“The greatest thing in all military service is health; and you will agree with me that it is easier for an officer to keep men
healthy than it is for a physician to cure them”.
• BCT (Ft. Jackson)(CHPPM)
– Males: 19-37% are injured in a 9-wk cycle
– Females: 42-67% are injured in a 9-wk cycle
• Most injuries are overuse, compared to traumatic
– Males: 75%
– Females: 78%
• Most injuries involve the lower extremity (low back, pelvis, hip and leg)*
If implemented at all IET/AIT sites: $9M/yr & 1.5M limited duty days/yr Potential
Savings
Accumulated Profiles
05
101520253035
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Week of Training
MS
I P
rofi
les
(%)
Pre-RT
RT
28
USMC Athletic Trainer Initiative
SOIW Discharges Due to Musculoskeletal Injury FY-03 v. FY-04
89
26
115
54
10
64
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Pre-Existing Occurred in Training Total
Disc
harg
e # FY-03
FY-04
39.3% Decrease in FY-04
61.5% decrease in FY-04
44.3% Decrease in
FY-04
• Treat Marines forward as Warrior Athletes.• Sports Medicine Physicians.• Certified Athletic Trainers (ATC’s)
–Contracted civilians who work for USMC commands. –GREEN ASSETS (NCAA model)–aligned with SMART rehab clinic operations–clinically supervised by Navy Sports Med MDs when dealing with injuries–emphasis on prevention, education, and treatment–Collect/enter injury data into TIMS (injury database)
• 3 trainers for Parris Island (GIT)/1 ATC for San Diego. • 3 Athletic Training Room (ATRs) for Parris Island
RESULTS– Increased Paris Island grad rate (female 68.3% to
74.7%)– Increase in BCT Return to Full Duty (RTFD) rates
(male 55.5% to 64.3%; female 37.5% to 52.2%) from rehab.
– Increase in BCT recycle grad rates (female 63.5% to 75%).
– Decreased musculo/skeletal discharges at Infantry School (see chart at left).
– Decreased attrition at OCS (male 8.7% to 3.8%; female 18.1% to 5.9%)– Greater cadre knowledge– Critical feedback on sources of injuries leading to
fixes.– Conservative estimate of $3.5M in cost avoidance
and $2.9M in Return on Investment in FY04 v. FY03.
29
NPQ ATTRITION (POST INDUCTION) AT SUMMER OCS CLASSES 2002-2004
5.7%
8.7%
3.8%
12.0%
18.1%
5.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
2002 2003 2004
YEAR
NP
Q A
TTR
ITIO
N
MALE
FEMALE
2297 31109 69 11
ATC BEGAN JULY 03
USMC Athletic Trainer Initiative
30
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
•SOI-E MUSCULOSKELETAL DISCHARGES•235
•192
•65
•0
•50
•100
•150
•200
•250
•2003 •2004 •2005
•YEAR
•#
•ATC ARRIVES NOV 04•THROUGH JUN 05
USMC Athletic Trainer Initiative
31
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
• Effective, reduced injury rates by 20-70%.
• Gives CDRs the tools; harnesses local personnel’s knowledge and skills working together to address their own injury problems.
• Reflects world best-practice from leading injury prevention experts.
• Consistent with Defence policy and approaches to risk management and injury prevention
Defence Injury Prevention Program (DIPP)AUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCEAUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE
32
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Uninjured
1,834 Injuries Prevented
Injured
Results for Army Basic Training: Injury
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Training Successes
Discharged
1,260 Discharges Prevented
Results for Army Basic Training: Attrition
Defence Injury Prevention Program (DIPP)AUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCEAUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE
1. 95% reduction in rates of pelvic stress fracture in female recruits.2. Elimination of serious knee injuries in recruits negotiating obstacle course3. 70% reduction over 4 years in rates of injury and attrition4. 60% reduction in compensation paid per recruit enlisted
33
IET/IMTSoldier/Leader
Success
MedicalScreening &Treatment
CadreAttitudes & Training
Training POI
Resources/Facilities
PoliciesProcesses
SoldierHealth &Nutrition
0.43
0.116 0.094
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5 0.43
0.116 0.094
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Results:All Sports; All Knee Injuries per 1,000 Athlete Exposures
1. Females at risk for knee injuries
2. Neuromuscular testing & training is an effective preventative treatment for serious knee injuries in female athletes.
3. Reduces knee injuries by 80%.
Pre-training Post-training
34
What To Do?
35
1. Female discharge attrition rates generally runs almost 2x male attrition rates and are 29.4% of all AC-RC discharges by volume. 46.7% of all AC BCT discharges.
2. Female rates vary by component from AC at 24.5% to USAR at 8.4% to NG at 13.4%.
3. Females enter the FTU PCU and PTRP at higher rates than males and have 3-5x higher injury rates than men.
4. Contributing factors are:
a. Leg muscle imbalances
b. Mild anemia
c. Soft bones
d. Lower fitness levels at entry
e. Smoking hx
5. Female attrition can be reduced by:
a. Restarting & Improving the FTU PCU and PTRP at GIT sites.
b. Implementing injury control measures.
c. Researching application of bone screening.
d. Improving the IET diet (Surgeon study underway in fall).
6. Fixing female preventable attrition also fixes male preventable attrition.
Hypothesis: Preventable Discharge Attrition Can be Reduced
• System changes• TR 350-70 (TD policies & standards)• SMCT• CTT• AR 350-1• NCOES• OES• EER/OER?• Transition Plan: Upgrade Army-wide skills by FY09
40
USARIEM BCT Study
• 1993 study of 174 women in an all-female 8-week BCT company at Fort Jackson, SC (158 graduated).
• Serum ferritin (body iron stores) were low pre-BCT (56% females at less than 20 ng/ml iron) and decreased further by graduation (84%)(pg.109).
• Anemia was correlated with poor PT performance (pg. 111)
• Serum folate levels were low normal pre-BCT and “decreased significantly over BCT.” (pg. 2)
• Maternal low folate intake and blood levels have been "associated with (fetal) neural tube defects“ (pg. 39) (note: neural tube defects can be fatal for the fetus).
• Menu was adequate in energy, but inadequate in B6, folic acid, calcium, magnesium, iron, and zinc.
• Source: “Health, Performance, and Nutritional Status of U.S. Army Women during Basic Combat Training,” (1995)(ADA302042)
• NOTE: Study BCT menu governed by the 1985 AR 40-25
USARIEM BCT Study
• 1993 study of 174 women in an all-female 8-week BCT company at Fort Jackson, SC (158 graduated).
• Serum ferritin (body iron stores) were low pre-BCT (56% females at less than 20 ng/ml iron) and decreased further by graduation (84%)(pg.109).
• Anemia was correlated with poor PT performance (pg. 111)
• Serum folate levels were low normal pre-BCT and “decreased significantly over BCT.” (pg. 2)
• Maternal low folate intake and blood levels have been "associated with (fetal) neural tube defects“ (pg. 39) (note: neural tube defects can be fatal for the fetus).
• Menu was adequate in energy, but inadequate in B6, folic acid, calcium, magnesium, iron, and zinc.
• Source: “Health, Performance, and Nutritional Status of U.S. Army Women during Basic Combat Training,” (1995)(ADA302042)
• NOTE: Study BCT menu governed by the 1985 AR 40-25