MENA Crisis Tracker – 6/27/2021 The MENA Crisis Tracker is a weekly newsletter that provides information on public health indicators, expected economy-wide losses, and social consequences of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis in the Middle East and North Africa. COVID-19's spread, fatality, and economic costs are particularly difficult to ascertain when testing is far from universal. Data transparency is key to facilitate context-specific policy responses, which require tradeoffs between public health outcomes and socio-economic conditions in the short run. But publicly available data must be interpreted with caution because testing is far from universal. In addition to presenting COVID-19 related indicators with caveats, the Tracker provides links to publicly available research on the economics of the pandemic and potential policy responses. Highlights from this edition: • Missing Data Alert: In the absence of universal testing, general mortality rates during 2021 can be compared to pre-pandemic mortality as a proxy for the public health consequences of the pandemic. Unfortunately, MENA countries do not offer publicly available data on deaths. • High-income MENA countries lead in testing per capita – see Public Health Tracker. Testing data for Algeria, Yemen, and Syria has been updated using Worldometer data, but WB staff cannot corroborate the information using official government sources. Many MENA countries have positivity rates above the WHO’s recommendation of 5% or lower. • The Tracker presents information on vaccination efforts across MENA. See last section under Public Health Tracker. • Global evidence indicates that testing per person tends to rise with income per capita, after controlling for population size and the quality of public health systems. This finding confirms that developing economies are at a disadvantage relative to rich countries. See What Is Correlated with Testing per Capita. • Expected macroeconomic losses due to the pandemic have surged since March 2020, reaching 7.4% of MENA’s 2019 GDP as of May 12 th , 2021 relative to the counterfactual scenario of no crisis. The expected GDP losses are highest for Lebanon, with an expected accumulated loss in 2021 equivalent to 26.6% of its 2019 GDP. See Macroeconomic Costs. • The economic losses have increased poverty relative to the counterfactual scenario without the crisis. Yet estimates of increases in the number of poor people might be underestimated. See Poverty and Social Costs. • This week’s edition features a WEF post on how Arabian Gulf countries can achieve economic diversification and sustainable economic growth through industrialization or the expansion of the manufacturing and logistics sectors. Furthermore, the article analyzes the current economic contribution of industrial sectors to GDP, as well as the necessary capital investments for GCC countries to compete globally as industrial hubs. The authors further assess the current employment contribution of industrial sectors to aggregate employment, versus what can be attained with an introduction of advanced manufacturing and logistics jobs. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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MENA Crisis Tracker – 6/27/2021
The MENA Crisis Tracker is a weekly newsletter that provides information on public health indicators,
expected economy-wide losses, and social consequences of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis in the Middle
East and North Africa. COVID-19's spread, fatality, and economic costs are particularly difficult to
ascertain when testing is far from universal. Data transparency is key to facilitate context-specific
policy responses, which require tradeoffs between public health outcomes and socio-economic
conditions in the short run. But publicly available data must be interpreted with caution because testing
is far from universal. In addition to presenting COVID-19 related indicators with caveats, the Tracker
provides links to publicly available research on the economics of the pandemic and potential policy
responses.
Highlights from this edition:
• Missing Data Alert: In the absence of universal testing, general mortality rates during 2021 can
be compared to pre-pandemic mortality as a proxy for the public health consequences of the
pandemic. Unfortunately, MENA countries do not offer publicly available data on deaths.
• High-income MENA countries lead in testing per capita – see Public Health Tracker. Testing data
for Algeria, Yemen, and Syria has been updated using Worldometer data, but WB staff cannot
corroborate the information using official government sources. Many MENA countries have
positivity rates above the WHO’s recommendation of 5% or lower.
• The Tracker presents information on vaccination efforts across MENA. See last section under
Public Health Tracker.
• Global evidence indicates that testing per person tends to rise with income per capita, after
controlling for population size and the quality of public health systems. This finding confirms that
developing economies are at a disadvantage relative to rich countries. See What Is Correlated with
Testing per Capita.
• Expected macroeconomic losses due to the pandemic have surged since March 2020, reaching
7.4% of MENA’s 2019 GDP as of May 12th, 2021 relative to the counterfactual scenario of no
crisis. The expected GDP losses are highest for Lebanon, with an expected accumulated loss in
2021 equivalent to 26.6% of its 2019 GDP. See Macroeconomic Costs.
• The economic losses have increased poverty relative to the counterfactual scenario without the
crisis. Yet estimates of increases in the number of poor people might be underestimated. See
Poverty and Social Costs.
• This week’s edition features a WEF post on how Arabian Gulf countries can achieve economic
diversification and sustainable economic growth through industrialization or the expansion of the
manufacturing and logistics sectors. Furthermore, the article analyzes the current economic
contribution of industrial sectors to GDP, as well as the necessary capital investments for GCC
countries to compete globally as industrial hubs. The authors further assess the current employment
contribution of industrial sectors to aggregate employment, versus what can be attained with an
introduction of advanced manufacturing and logistics jobs.
The information below covers data for the date ending: June 27, 2021.
1. Testing as of June 27, 2021.
Table 2 presents each country’s tests per million of population and the test-positivity rate. A high
test-positivity rate implies that testing is selective and that it is insufficient relative to the spread
of the disease.
Based on last week’s data, Arabian gulf countries such as the UAE (5,710,568) and Bahrain
(2,843,371) continue to lead the region in terms of having the highest tests per million and low-
test positivity rates in the region. Notably, three countries have consistently lacked testing data
over the course of the pandemic: Syria, Algeria, and Yemen. Algeria last reported its testing data
in May 2020 when its test positivity rate was 108 percent. Yemen’s tests per million of population
remained constant between May and September 2020 and, given that its test positivity rate
exceeded 100 percent throughout that period, it appears to have been selectively testing and
reporting untested or probable cases of COVID-19. Syria is the only country that has not published
any testing data since the beginning of the pandemic. As of May 10th, 2021, both Oman and Egypt
have stopped publishing new testing data.
The three countries above have not been providing official updates on testing data. While the
Worldometer database has recently updated testing data for these three countries, World Bank staff
are unable to corroborate this data from the Worldometer database using official, government
sources.
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Table 2. COVID-19 Tests per Million of Population as of June 27, 2021
Country Tests/1M Total Tests Tests last week Cases/Tests
United Arab Emirates 5,710,568 57,152,316 1,873,368 1
Bahrain 2,843,371 5,002,880 91,675 5
Qatar 765,788 2,150,184 28,420 10
Jordan 757,805 7,807,672 110,889 10
Lebanon 696,281 4,731,376 132,190 12
Kuwait 677,064 2,933,563 96,097 12
Saudi Arabia 613,573 21,688,368 726,592 2
West Bank and Gaza 362,896 1,893,565 17,601 17
Oman 296,133 1,550,000 - 17
Iraq 281,637 11,577,950 262,486 11
Iran 274,054 23,308,926 987,469 14
Morocco 182,043 6,797,802 78,308 8
Djibouti 171,748 172,117 3,883 7
Libya 159,899 1,113,429 21,089 17
Tunisia 140,819 1,681,458 70,095 24
Egypt* 27,531 2,869,589 - 10
Syria* 5,780 103,566 - 25
Algeria* 5,173 230,861 - 60
Yemen* 3,474 105,850 10,590 7
MENA Region 333,053 152,871,472 4,510,752 7
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). Color coordination done as follows: 0-5% Green, 6-10% Yellow, 11-19% Orange, 20% + Red. “-” means data is not currently available. Countries should aim to be below the 5 percent
test positivity rate threshold, according to a May 12th advisory statement by the World Health Organization.
* = World Bank staff have not been able to corroborate the data reported in the Worldometer database.
2. Spread of COVID-19 as of June 27, 2021
Table 3 presents the number of reported COVID-19 cases per million of population, cases in the
past week and percentage change in cases last week compared to the preceding week. Bahrain
(150,752), Kuwait (81,122), Lebanon (80,123)and have the highest rates, but also had substantial
percentage reductions in weekly cases.
In countries with ongoing conflicts and instability such as Iraq, Libya, Palestine, and Yemen, weak
testing capacity leads to fewer reported positive cases and paints a potentially misleading picture
of low spread. For example, official data suggests that cases have declined by 13% in Iraq, but this
is likely due to a weak testing capacity.
Finally, 6 MENA countries have reported an increase in Covid cases compared to the prior week,
with Tunisia reporting the highest percentage increase at 71%, followed by Iran at 13%.
Table 4 shows the deaths per million of population, and the latest weeks percentage change in
deaths relative to the preceding week. A limitation of this measure is that it may underreport deaths
by not counting deaths that occur at home or by misattributing COVID-19 deaths to other causes.
In either case, the numbers reported may be underestimates. Tunisia (1,227) has the highest rate
in the region, followed by Lebanon (1,154), and Iran at (987).
Four MENA countries experienced an increase in Covid-related deaths, with varying percentage
increases compared to the prior week. Oman witnessed the highest percentage increase in Covid
deaths relative to last week at 30%, followed by Kuwait at 26%.
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Table 4. COVID-19 Fatality Rate – Deaths/Millions of Population as of June 27, 2021
Country Deaths/1M Total
Deaths Deaths last week
Deaths last week
relative to previous
week
Tunisia
1,227
14,654 616 18%
Lebanon
1,154
7,843 21 -13%
Iran
987
83,985 884 0%
Jordan
944
9,727 56 -29%
Bahrain
764
1,345 39 -54%
West Bank and Gaza
682
3,559 8 -56%
Oman
576
3,013 272 30%
Libya
458
3,191 13 0%
Kuwait
446
1,933 63 26%
Iraq
416
17,091 181 -12%
Morocco
248
9,277 33 0%
Saudi Arabia
220
7,789 98 -18%
Qatar
209
588 5 -17%
United Arab Emirates
180
1,802 39 18%
Djibouti
155
155 0 -
Egypt
154
16,092 233 -1%
Syria
104
1,867 22 -37%
Algeria
83
3,693
52 -26%
Yemen
45
1,360 5 -17%
MENA Region 412 188,964 2,640 13%
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). Color coordination done as follows: Any % decrease is Green, 0-24% increase is Yellow, 25-49% increase is Orange, 50%+ is Red.
4. COVID-19 Vaccinations as of June 27, 2021 Countries in the MENA region face mixed prospects of vaccine rollout in 2021-22. Arabian Gulf
countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait continue leading the region in the percent of the
population vaccinated at 152%, 119.2%, and 73%, respectively.
Data on vaccine doses administered has been inconsistent across the region. While most MENA
countries have been consistently updating their vaccination numbers, other countries, such as Algeria,
have been slow to release updated figures, seeing as Algeria’s vaccination data is as of February 19th.
Table 5. COVID-19 Vaccinations as of June 27, 2021
Country % of
population vaccinated
Cumulative COVID-19 vaccine doses administered
Vaccine Contracts
Vaccine clinical trial
participation (Y/N)
Vaccine imports through COVAX Facility (Y/N)
Algeria 5.7% 75,000 by June 27th Sputnik V, AstraZeneca, and Sinopharm N Y
Bahrain 119.2% 1.58 million June 27th Pfizer and BioNTech, Sinopharm,
AstraZeneca Y N
Djibouti 2.7% 13,042 by June 27th Sputnik V N Y
Egypt 4% 1.88 million by June 27th 40m from Sinopharm, AstraZeneca Y Y
Iran 6% 2.33 million by June 27th Sputnik V N N
Iraq 2% 520,491 by June 27th 1.5m doses – Pfizer, Sinopharm, 1m
Sputnik V N Y
Jordan 35% 1.42 million by June 27th 3m doses - Pfizer and BioNTech Y Y
Kuwait 73% 1.82 million by June 27th 1m doses - Pfizer, BioNTech,
AstraZeneca N Y
Lebanon 18% 664,814 by June 27th 2.1m Pfizer, AstraZeneca N Y
Libya 5.4% 106,559 by May 24th $9.6 million of vaccines contracted with
WHO N N
Morocco 50.5% 12.47 million by May 24th 65 million - Sinopharm and AstraZeneca Y Y
Oman 17% 326,269 by June 27th 370,000 Pfizer-BioNTech doses,
AstraZeneca N N
Qatar 106 2.29 million by June 27th Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna N Y
Saudi Arabia 50% 12.9 million by June 27th Pfizer-BioNTech Y Y
Syria 0.01% 2,500 by April 8 5,000 doses received N Y
Tunisia 14% 765,751 by June 27th 2m doses – Pfizer, 1m Sputnik N Y
UAE 152% 12.17 million June 27th Sinopharm and Pfizer Y Y
West Bank & Gaza 17% 475,965 by June 27th 37,440 Pfizer and 24,000 AstraZeneca
delivered through COVAX N Y
Yemen - - 2.3 million doses with COVAX N Y
Source: Data on vaccination from Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been approved by the WHO for emergency use. Other vaccines have been approved on a national level as follows: Sinopharm in China, UAE, Bahrain,
and Egypt; Sputnik V in Russia, West Bank and Gaza, Algeria, and Paraguay; AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK, India, Argentina, Morocco, Kuwait, and Mexico.