[Mekong ARCC] Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems

Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for natural and agricultural systems

Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management

www.icem.com.au

September 2012 Hanoi 1a

Climate changes

Hydrological changes

Agricultural zones

Ecological zones

Species “zones”

Commercial crops

Subsistence crops

Traditional crops

Aqua-culture

Crop wild relatives

NTFPs Wild fish catch

Adaptation options

Wildlife Live- stock

Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods

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Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum

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Transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture

Intermediate Commercial

Land consolidation

Increased capital

intensity

Small holdings

Labourintensive

Low capital

intensity

Commercial farms and

plantations

Subsistence

Industrialization, rural-urban migration

Climate change shiftsRegular climate

1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability

2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation

3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patterns

Extreme events

4. Extreme event shifts Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall

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Geographic shift

Paddy rice and

commercial crops

Shift in zone of suitability for habitat and crops

Original extent of natural habitat

Remaining natural habitat

pockets

Subsistence crops and NTF collection 6

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Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas

• High exposure: significant climate change relative to base conditions exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions

• High sensitivity: limited temperature and moisture tolerance range degraded and/or under acute pressure severely restricted geographic range rare or threatened

• Low adaptive capacity Poor connectivity Low diversity and tolerances Homogenous systems 7

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Climate change hot spot - rainfall

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Climate change hot spot - Temperature

Industrial and commercial crops and climate change hotspots

Lowland rice

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upland rice

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rubber

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Coffee (coffea canephora)

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cassava

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Maize

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Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature

Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances

Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation

Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances

Trends in commercial crops with climate change

• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.

• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).

• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.

• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures

• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required.

• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation

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Rice cultivation and extreme flooding

• Extreme floods will be more common in rice based production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the Mekong Delta.

• Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less resilient to flood than traditional ones.

• Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become more risky

• Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables are less resilient to flood than rice.

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Rice

Rice cultivation and sea level rise

• A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent, depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha of rice area in the Mekong Delta.

• Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in the rainy season.

• The double and triple cropping system commonly used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible.

• Climate change will change the occurrence of plant disease and pests such as fungus and moulds, viruses, nematodes and a range of insects.

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Rice

Thank you

Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Managementwww.icem.com.au

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