01: 02: 03: 04: 05: 06: 07: 08: 09: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: MEGATRENDS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE HEALTH THRIVES WOMEN ON THE RISE CULTURAL DIVERSITY NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY DIGITAL LIFESTYLE BIOMIMICRY, OR, LEARNING FROM NATURE! UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE GLOBALISATION 2.0 KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS URBANISATION NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
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M E G AT R E N D S
D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E
I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
H E A LT H T H R I V E S
W O M E N O N T H E R I S E
C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
U B I Q U I T O U S I N T E L L I G E N C E
T E C H N O L O G Y C O N V E R G E N C E
G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D E C O N O M Y
B U S I N E S S E C O S Y S T E M S
C H A N G E S I N T H E W O R K W O R L D
N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
E N E R G Y A N D R E S O U R C E R E V E R S A L
C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
U R B A N I S AT I O N
N E W P O L I T I C A L W O R L D O R D E R
G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y
Megatrends are long-term processes of t ransformation with a broad scope and a
dramatic impact . They are considered to be powerful factors which shape future
markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends:
TIME HORIZON
Megatrends can be observed over decades. Quant i tat ive, empir ica l ly unambi-
guous indicators are avai lable for the present . They can be projected – with high
probabi l i t ies – at least 15 years into the future.
REACH
Megatrends impact comprehensively on a l l regions, and result in mult id imensi -
onal t ransformations of a l l societa l subsystems, whether in pol i t ics , society, or
economy. Their precise features vary according to the region in quest ion.
INTENSITY OF IMPACT
Megatrends impact powerful ly and extensively on a l l actors, whether i t is go-
vernments, indiv iduals and their consumption patterns, or corporat ions and
their strategies.
The term “Megatrends” was coined by John Naisbi t t , who, 25 years ago, publ is -
hed a book of the same t i t le . “Megatrends” presented 10 far - reaching develop-
ments which painted a picture of our future at the turn of the mi l lennium. The
book became a bestsel ler and made Naisbi t t a t ra i lb lazer for socia l and eco-
nomic t rend research. With hindsight , one has to acknowledge graciously that
his analyses did not lack the necessary v is ion. He coined, e .g . , the expression
“Global isat ion”, recognised every indiv idual ’s increasing responsibi l i ty for his
own l i fe , envis ioned the information and mult i -opt ion society, and real ised how
decentra l , networking structures would dominate the new mil lennium.
T H E T R E N D T O W A R D S
M E G AT R E N D S
Today, megatrends have become a re levant strategic issue in many corporate
headquarters . S iemens, to name a s igni f icant example, has stressed the impor-
tance of megatrends for i ts business on var ious occasions. Driven by i ts CEO,
Klaus Kle infe ld, S iemens has started to re-a l ign i ts business f ie lds focussing on
the megatrends demographic change and urbanisat ion. Only recent ly, Z_punkt
cooperated with Siemens’ Corporate Strategy department in creat ing a corporate
management report on the megatrends crucia l for the company.
Some megatrends, such as demographic change, heal th, or mobi l i ty, have found
a place on many agendas. Exper ience a lso shows, however, that businesses di f -
fer in their evaluat ion of speci f ic megatrends – their re lat ive strategic s igni f i -
cance being determined by a company’s focus on speci f ic markets , products,
and customers. With i ts new global maxim “The Consumer Decides”, Nike is
recognis ing a megatrend which we descr ibe as a new phase of indiv idual izat ion.
General E lectr ic , on the other hand, focuses on s imi lar issues as i ts compet i tor
Siemens, showcased by i ts new “Ecomaginat ion” advert is ing campaign.
How can companies create value f rom megatrends? Valuable insights wi l l only
be gained i f information on a megatrend is t ranslated into a company’s very
own context , and into future innovat ion f ie lds, markets , and products. Not the
t rend as such is of interest , but i ts strategic impl icat ions. I f you want to prepare
yoursel f in t ime for the future markets emerging f rom megatrends, Z_punkt can
of fer a wide range of t r ied-and-tested, business-speci f ic approaches: Whether
i t ’s lectures or one-day inhouse workshops, ident i f icat ion of strategic innovat i -
on f ie lds or new business f ie lds.
T H E T R E N D T O W A R D S
M E G AT R E N D S
M E G AT R E N D S
0 1 : D E M O G R A P H I C
C H A N G E
In the West, ageing and shrinking populations
In the developing countries, a baby boom
Increasing migration streams
Demographic shifts
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
.
.
.
.
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N
R E A C H E S
A N E W S TA G E
Individualism, a global phenomenon
Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
From mass markets to micro markets
Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics
M E G AT R E N D S
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
Increasing health awareness and higher
personal responsibility
Health tech – health style
New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
New converging markets (food, pharma-
ceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 4 : W O M E N
O N T H E R I S E
Women are integrated into the working world
“Female” soft skills become more important
Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
Work-life balance
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 5 : C U LT U R A L
D I V E R S I T Y
Plural ways of life between tradition
and today
Value systems compete globally
Emergence of hybrid culture
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S
O F M O B I L I T Y
Globally, mobility increases
Barriers to mobility increase
Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
Virtual business worlds
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R ,
L E A R N I N G F R O M
N AT U R E
Biology becomes the leading science
Renaissance of bionics
Swarm intelligence: New forms of social
organisation
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
0 9 : U B I Q U I T O U S
I N T E L L I G E N C E
IT-revolution continues
Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces,
new surfaces
Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and
robotics
Transparent society: Surveillance and control
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 0 : T E C H N O L O G Y
C O N V E R G E N C E
Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
NBIC-convergence
.
.
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M E G AT R E N D S
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1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
Shift to Asia and a new role for the West
Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
Emergence of a global middle class
Globalised Flow of Capital
M E G AT R E N D S
1 2 : K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D
E C O N O M Y
Education and learning as a basis
Innovation as a key driver and
competition factor
New global knowledge elite – the creative class
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 3 : B U S I N E S S
E C O S Y S T E M S
Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
New value-adding chains (customer integra-
tion, coopetition)
Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to
new markets
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 4 : C H A N G E S I N T H E
W O R K W O R L D
Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
Flexible, interactive work structures
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 5 : NEW CONSUMPTION
PATTERNS
The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
Sustainable consumption in the West
(LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
1 6 : ENERGY AND
RESOURCE REVERSAL
Strategic resource scarcities (fossil
fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals)
Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
Revolution in energy efficiency
Decentralised energy supply
.
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M E G AT R E N D S
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1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
CO2-discharges and global rise of temperatures
Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
Clean technologies
Corporate responsibility increases
M E G AT R E N D S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
Megacities grow strongly
Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
New forms of residence, living, and
participation
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
China and India join the ranks
of world powers
Crisis of Western democracies
Russia’s renaissance
Africa awakes
1 9 : N E W P O L I T I C A L
W O R L D O R D E R
.
.
.
.
M E G AT R E N D S
2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S
T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L
S E C U R I T Y
Global risk society
Festering cultural conflicts and failed states
Global terrorism
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
.
.
.
.
I f you are interested in megatrends, p lease contact
Klaus Burmeister, our Managing Director (burmeister@z-punkt .de) , or
Holger Glockner, our Director Foresight Consult ing (g lockner@z-punkt .de) .
Z_punkt is a consult ing f i rm for strategy and innovat ion. We are experts in
Corporate Foresight , i .e . , in t ranslat ing trend and future research into the day-
to-day work of strategic management. S ince 1997, we have been support ing
businesses and publ ic inst i tut ions in Foresight Research and Consult ing.
Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company
Anna-Schneider-Steig 2 • Rheinauhafen
50678 Köln
0049 - (0)221 - 355 534 - 0
http://www.z-punkt .de
glockner@z-punkt .de
watkins@z-punkt .de
C O N TA C T
A B O U T Z _ P U N K T
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D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E
I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
H E A LT H T H R I V E S
W O M E N O N T H E R I S E
C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
U B I Q U I T O U S I N T E L L I G E N C E
T E C H N O L O G Y C O N V E R G E N C E
G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D E C O N O M Y
B U S I N E S S E C O S Y S T E M S
C H A N G E S I N T H E W O R K W O R L D
N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
E N E R G Y A N D R E S O U R C E R E V E R S A L
C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
U R B A N I S AT I O N
N E W P O L I T I C A L W O R L D O R D E R
G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y
M E G AT R E N D S
Copyright Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Köln Karlsruhe Berlin 2008