Meetings In 2020 V5.1 Feb 2007

Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 1

Meetings in 2020

John ParkinsonChairman & Managing Director

ParkWood Advisors LLC

Sydney, February 2007


Agenda

How we got here: Scenarios Revisited

Leveraging Automation Meetings in Virtual Meeting Management Where do we go from

here?


How we got here: Scenarios revisited

“It may not be possible to predict the future but it is certainly possible to invent it”


Predicting the future is hard…..


…..but building scenarios can help.

“Process”

“Algorithm”

“ Locus” “Society”

What kinds of new things can we model or compute or connect?

What new kinds of locations are accessible or connections possible?

How does this change what we can do?

How does this changehow we work and live?

“Weak signals”

Feedback loops

What emergent trends should we track?

“Expectation”

What issues and ideas illuminate, motivateand constrain the aspirations of societiesgroups and individuals (constructed via scenario analysis)

“ Devices”

What new kinds of productsor capabilities are coming to market?


Two scenarios for 2020

An energy crunch– nuclear electric generation

replaces oil, gas and coal as primary energy source

– a major but rapidly settled regional conflict

– a generally peaceful, prosperous and healthy world

– limited ability to travel.

A threat of global contagion– an effective hydrogen-

based economy providing cheap energy

– a background of low-level worldwide biological terrorism

– a continuing concern about global pandemics.

In both scenarios most people are unable or reluctant to travel a lot and to meet in large groups, especially with strangers.


Leveraging automation

“Of course you can’t have everything – where would you keep it all?”


The new capabilities and tools

Low cost, high bandwidth, prevalent connectivity and cheap computing cycles

Ubiquitous digital sensors and surveillance

Highly reliable automation Semi-autonomous

personal software agents: “Images”

Augmented storage: “eMinds”


The new challenges

Prevalent observation Behavioral analysis Scenario simulation

and outcome prediction Globally dispersed

executive management “Real time reality” “Always on” executive

demand


The new responses

“Images” to mask behavioral cues

Real time analytics Routine decision

automation Attention augmentation Neutral meeting

“places” with digital authentication


New capabilities change behavior in unpredictable ways

Mainstream Collaboration

time

The “new”

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

MinicomputersShared digital documents

All-in-one & PROFSBasic email

Fax

PC & LANEmail & Voicemail

SpreadsheetsWord processing

ISDN & basic VTCCell Phones

Internet2.5G Cell Phones

IM & Advanced MessagingPowerPoint & Rich media

P2PWi-Fi

Converged IP NetworksBlackberry & UMTS

Immersive PresenceAgents & Rules

Shared WorkflowDRM

RelativeImpact of Capability

On behavior


Meetings “in Virtual”

““It always amazes me how It always amazes me how consistently we consistently we over estimateover estimate what what we can do in two years and we can do in two years and underestimateunderestimate what we can do in what we can do in ten”ten”


In “Virtual” you can be…..

Anywhere (real or imaginary) you want

Anyone (real or imaginary) you want

Surrounded by (invisible) help

Secure and certain Recorded and replayed (Invisibly) multitasking


Meeting Management


Making meetings productive

Effective preparation and briefing “Sprint & Glide” interaction models Confirming vs. deciding modalities Managing time The sociology of interruptions The rise of semiotics, rituals and the role of

archetypes


Social Network Mapping

Real time communications analysis

Visualizing information sets, decisions and outcomes


Managing Meeting Models, Time Lines and Interaction Effectiveness

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63

messages synthetrons elaborates elaborates that are synthetrons


Where do we go from here?

“The future is only rational in retrospect”


The limits to….

Storage: Managing the ExaFlood - Quantum holography vs. space colonization

Bandwidth: The Yottabit threshold in 2025 Wavelength resolution: Quantum crossover

in MPλS Latency: When speed of light is not enough Unassisted human cognition:

Transcending the mind/machine interface


Welcome to the future - however it turns out!


About John ParkinsonChairman and Managing Director, ParkWood Advisors LLC

30+ years in technology 20+ years in consulting Published author and columnist (CIO Insight) World’s top 25 most influential consultants

(2003) Chairman ITAA Working Group on Public

Policy for RFID (2004) Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005) Retired head of Innovation and Strategy at

Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001) Retired CTO of Capgemini

(July 2005) External Director, TeleGuam Holdings LLC Board of Advisors: Brulant Inc. ; TAP.tv;

InSORS Communications;

[email protected]+1 847 235 1791


Copyright notice and disclaimer:

ParkWood Advisors LLC 2006. All rights reserved.

Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson at ParkWood Advisors LLC..

This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services. If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.

WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS

World RegionsPopulation( 2006 Est.)

Population% of World

Internet Usage,

Latest Data

% Population( Penetration )

Usage% of

World

Usage Growth

2000-2006

Africa 915,210,928 14.1 % 32,765,700 3.6 % 3.0 % 625.8 %

Asia 3,667,774,066 56.4 % 394,872,213 10.8 % 36.4 % 245.5 %

Europe 807,289,020 12.4 % 308,712,903 38.2 % 28.4 % 193.7 %

Middle East 190,084,161 2.9 % 19,028,400 10.0 % 1.8 % 479.3 %

North America 331,473,276 5.1 % 229,138,706 69.1 % 21.1 % 112.0 %

Latin America/Caribbean 553,908,632 8.5 % 83,368,209 15.1 % 7.7 % 361.4 %

Oceania / Australia 33,956,977 0.5 % 18,364,772 54.1 % 1.7 % 141.0 %

WORLD TOTAL 6,499,697,060 100.0 % 1,086,250,903 16.7 % 100.0 % 200.9 %NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated for Sept. 18, 2006. (2) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data contained in the world-gazetteer website. (3) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings, by the International Telecommunications Union, by local NICs, and other reliable sources. (4) Information from this site may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back to www.internetworldstats.com. Copyright © 2006, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide.


Source: InternetWorldStats.com

© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 24

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Voice Crossover: August 2000

4x/Year

2.8x/Year

1Gbps

1Tbps

10Tbps

100Gbps

10Gbps

100Tbps

100Mbps

1Kbps

1Mbps

10Mbps

100Kbps

10Kbps

100 bps

1 Pbps

100 Pbps

10 Pbps

10 bps10 bps

ARPA & NSF Data to 96

2001 Measurements

Limit of same % as GDP

Sustained at 4x/Year

2015 2020

1 Ebps

10 Ebps

100 Ebps

Government & Research

Commerce, including VoIP

Collaborative Work

50 years of traffic growth

Consumer Peer to Peer

1 Zbps

10 Zbps

Petabit threshold

Exabit threshold

Zettabit threshold

Version 5.0 January 23, 2007

© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 25

Meetings in 2020

Version 5.0 January 23, 2007

Meetings In 2020 V5.1 Feb 2007

Business

rights reserved meetings

eminds version

multitasking version

retrospect version

meeting management version

digital authentication

executive demand version

unpredictable ways version