Figure 1 Global renewable electricity production by region 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TWh OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania Africa Non-OECD Asia China Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East % total generation (right axis) Notes: TWh = terawatt hours. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in figures and tables in this chapter derive from International Energy Agency (IEA) data and analysis.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
14 MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A growing role for renewables in the energy mix The role of renewable sources in the global power mix continues to increase. On a percentage basis, renewables continue to be the fastest-growing power source. As global renewable electricity generation expands in absolute terms, it is expected to surpass that from natural gas and double that from nuclear power by 2016, becoming the second most important global electricity source, after coal. Globally, renewable generation is estimated to rise to 25% of gross power generation in 2018, up from 20% in 2011 and 19% in 2006. Driven by fast-growing generation from wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), the share of non-hydro renewable power is seen doubling, to 8% of gross generation in 2018, up from 4% in 2011 and 2% in 2006. In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), non-hydro renewable power rises to 11% of OECD gross generation in 2018, up from 7% in 2012 and 3% in 2006.
Figure 1 Global renewable electricity production by region
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania Africa Non-OECD Asia ChinaNon-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East % total generation (right axis)
Notes: TWh = terawatt hours. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in figures and tables in this chapter derive from International Energy Agency (IEA) data and analysis.
Renewable electricity growth is expected to accelerate over the medium term. From 2012-18 renewable electricity generation should rise by 40% (1 990 TWh or 6% per year [/yr]), from 4 860 TWh to 6 850 TWh. This growth in generation is 50% higher than the 1 330 TWh increment registered over the 2006-12 period. Generation in 2017 is seen 90 TWh higher than that projected in the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012 (MTRMR 2012). Total renewable capacity is expected to grow from 1 580 gigawatts (GW) in 2012 to 2 350 GW in 2018. While hydropower remains the largest renewable source, a portfolio of non-hydro renewable sources – bioenergy, wind, solar PV, solar thermal electricity from concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, geothermal and ocean power – grows more rapidly. The roles of biofuels for transport and renewable heat are also increasing, though at slower rates than renewable electricity. Global biofuels production is expected to rise by over 25% from 2012 to 2018, reaching 2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2018. Biofuels output, adjusted for energy
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