Medium-range Hydrometeorological Medium-range Hydrometeorological Forecasts Forecasts of the Big Wood Basin in 2006 of the Big Wood Basin in 2006 (plus a look forward at 2007…) (plus a look forward at 2007…) A Project for the Pacific Northwest Regional Collaboratory
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Medium-range Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the Big Wood Basin in 2006 (plus a look forward at 2007…) A Project for the Pacific Northwest Regional Collaboratory.
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Medium-range Hydrometeorological Forecasts Medium-range Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the Big Wood Basin in 2006of the Big Wood Basin in 2006
(plus a look forward at 2007…)(plus a look forward at 2007…)
A Project for the Pacific Northwest Regional Collaboratory
Contributors
University of Idaho, Dept. of Geography:
Troy R. Blandford, M.S. in 2006Brian J. Harshburger, PhD Candidate Karen S. Humes, Associate ProfessorBrandon C. Moore, M.S. in 2006Von P. Walden, Associate Professor
Idaho National Laboratory (INL):
Ryan Hruska, Senior Engineer/Scientist
Snowmelt Runoff Model
• SRM is a semi-distributed, temperature index (degree-day) model designed to simulate and forecast streamflow in snowmelt-dominated (mountainous) basins.
– Model inputs: • Current temperature and precipitation from SNOTEL sites
• Snow-covered Area– Derived from MODIS images
» INL (Ryan Hruska)
» NSIDC (Tom Painter)
• Forecasted Temperatures– Medium-range, 15-day from NCEP GFS (downscaled to SNOTEL sites)
– Short-range, 7-day from NDFD (4 day - precipitation)
– Temporal resolution: daily
Downscaling of Met Forecasts
• Example of downscaling of four NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) grid points (large yellow dots) to individual SNOTEL station locations (small black dots)
Clark and Hay, (2004)
Errors in NCEP and NDFD Temperatures
Moore et al., 2006
SRM Enhancements
• The use of both maximum and minimum critical temperatures (Tcritmax and Tcritmin) to partition precipitation into rain, snow, and rain/snow mixed.
– model currently uses a single critical temperature value
• The use of an antecedent temperature index (ATI) method to track snowpack cold-content and account for the delay in melt associated with diurnal refreezing.
– used to determine when the snowpack is ripe
– also to determine when the rain falling on the snowpack should contribute to the runoff
• SRM correctly forecasted the timing of the peak discharge (May 22, 2006) out 6 days in advance.
– Early by 1 day at a lead time of 7 days and 2 days at 10 days
• The magnitude of the peak was slightly under-predicted for all of the lead-times illustrated here.
• The forecasts of the secondary peak, which occurred in early June, require further investigation and may be due to errors in the input data (i.e. snow covered area).
• The timing of the forecasts are off (timing of smaller peaks) during the early and late portions of the snowmelt season.– May be due to time lag between snowmelt and precipitation events and
the resulting stream discharge
• Create a decision support system for interested parties that is– Easy to use– Accurate
• Intention is to create tools for many basins, not just a single basin, for end-users (NRCS, COE)– UI training session on basin disaggregation and
how to process snow-cover images (snow-covered area)
Preparation for 2007
Preparation for 2007
• Automation - Improved tools for ArcGIS
ArcGIS Tools
ArcGIS Tools
ArcGIS Tools
ArcGIS Tools
Preparation for 2007
• Automation - Improved tools for ArcGIS
• Additional basins
• North Fork of the Clearwater
• St. Joe River
• Big Lost River
• Little Wood River
• Fisher River (Montana)
• South Fork of the Flathead (Montana)
• And perhaps basins in Washington and Oregon as well
Potential New Basins for FY07
Preparation for 2007
• Automation - Improved tools for ArcGIS
• Additional basins
• Ensemble and Single-value (like 2006) forecasting
• Downscaling of global climate model output for simulation of future stream flow conditions in the PNW