Medieval Prophecy and Religious Dissent - Robert E. Lerner

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Medieval Prophecy and Religious DissentAuthor(s): Robert E. LernerSource: Past & Present, No. 72 (Aug., 1976), pp. 3-24Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of The Past and Present SocietyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/650326Accessed: 29/03/2010 07:20

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MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT *

IN I 463 A GERMAN BY THE NAME OF MEISTER THEODORIUS, THEN residing in Apulia, sent a prophecy of events he said would soon transpire back to his native land, explaixiing that his foreknowledge was vouchsafed to him by a divine revelation while he was lying in bed.l I464, he wrote, was going to be both a terrible and a wonderful year. Among the terrible things that would happen everywhere would be widespread mortality and the shedding of blood, three simultaneous eclipses of the sun and the moon, an earthquake throughout the whole world that would strike with such unprecedented force that mountains would lean on mountains, a great flood, and the appearance in pools of water of creatures with fiery hoes which they would use to drag in people and kill them. Nature would be so out of joint that miracles would proliferate among cattle, and sea- monsters would fight with each other.

God, however, would still be in his heaven. In fact, Theodorius clearly envisaged the terrors of I464 tO be a flaming out of the great refiner's fire, as can be seen by his enumeration of certain localized upheavals that he explicitly deemed to be retributory. The Venetians would spread poison in wells but be punished for their evil by the miraculous levitation of the doors of St. Mark's so high in the sky that they could be seen from as far away as Treviso. All the bishops of the Rhine, who, as Theodorius said, spent their time in "lewdness, and arrogance, and gluttony, and wantonness, and who

* A shorter version of this paper was read at the meeting of The American Society of Church History in Toronto, I8 April I975. Most of the research for it was done while on travel leave generously funded by the National Endowment for the Humanities and Northwestern University. I wish to thank Professor James J. Sheehan for his extreir,ely helpful advice.

1 The text is found in four MSS.: Hersog-August-Bibliothek, Wolfenbuttel go Aug. 2?, fos. 40 6r (hereafter MS. W.); Bibliotheque Nationale, Paris, MS. Allemand I29, fos. 25r-27V (hereafter MS. P.)- Staatsarchiv, Nurnberg "Nurnberger Hs. Nr. I4" fos. sor-s2r (hereafter MS. N.)- Universitats- bibliothek, Munich, 2? 68i, fos. II7V-II9r (hereafter MS. M.). MSS. W. and P. provide the best readings. I am grateful to Fraulein Edith Bohm Munich,, for calling my attention to the existence of MSS. P. and N. (Erl. Bohm has been working on a doctoral dissertation on MS. M. that should cast much light on Theodorius's prophecy and several other popular prophetic texts.) I date the prophecy to I463 because it refers to Duke Albert of Austria as a natural enemy of the Bohemian King George Podiebrad: Albert in fact emerged as George's enemy as the result of events of December I462, and died in Dec. I463. (MS. NV. prudently leaves out Albert's name since the manussript was written after it became certain that Theodorius's prophecy about the dead duke could never come to pass.)

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scorn all pious Christians, and who squander their alms on their cursed lives and wantonness" would "be driven from their power and handed over to their enemies and some murdered with the sword". Furthermore, "some monasteries and parish houses in German lands" would "be burned because of the great sin and evil and Iewdness that the morlks and priests secretly and openly commit". Similarly, most of the "faithless people of Bohemia" (the Hussites) would be slaughtered by the Duke of Austria.2

All these retributions, then, would help to make a better world. Theodorius pointed further in this direction by predicting that power would be taken from both heretics and heathen, and Christianity made humbler. The pope and "all his priests" would be converted (presumably away from their former evil ways), and all clerics who spoke Latin would be so scorned that none of them would hold back anything from the laity any more. Christianity would be threatened from the outside by the Saracens, who would elect a king to lead a great army against Rome. But when the army arrived the king would be converted to the Christian faith and become the Western Emperor. Then he would conquer the Holy Sepulchre, which would never again fall into heathen hands. Finally, at the end of the year, a newly-elected pope would unite with the triumphant Emperor and other kings and princes-of both German and Romance-speaking lands - to present a common front against Antichrist.3

2 The original text of the last three predictions in MS. W. is: "Item alle die Bischoff bey dem reyn die do ire zeit und tag in unkewsch und hoffart und fresserey und ubermut verpringen und alle frumen cristen menschen versmehen und haben das almuszen in irem verfluchten leben offt in ubermut verthun und aus gegeben, die werden vertriben von irem gewalt und iren feinten in ire hant gegeben und ettlich mit dem swert erschlagen . . . Item in dem selben jar werden etlich closter und pfarhoff in den tewtschen landen versincken und vill verprent von der grossen sund und poszheit und unkeusch wegen, die dy munich und priester tun und heimlich und offenlich treyben ... Item ein hertzog [MS. P.: "hertzog Albrecht"] von osterreich sol das ungelaubig volk von Beham erschlagen ausserhalb des selben landes den meysten teil".

3 MS. W.: "... die cristenheit wirt demutiger dan sie vor ye gewessen ist.... In dem selben jar sol sich Rom und alle sein briesterschafft verkeren.... Item es sullen auch alle gelert zungen des selben egenanten jars alle fast werden verschmecht, also das sich ir kayner mer unter den leyen nit wol gehalten kan [MS. P.: "nit wol enthalten mag".] ... Item einen kunigk werden die heyden in dem selbigen iar erwelen unter in mit dem sie ein gross her werden aus schicken gen rom zu vertilgen die cristenheit. Und darnach wen er dahin kumpt so sol er in einem gesicht bekert werden zu cristenlichem glawben und sol do selbst keyser werden.... Item der selbe kayser der sol mit seinen frewnten der heydenschafft die er bekeren ist und bekerdt hat in dem selben jare gen Iherusalem ziehen und das heylig grab gewinnen und sol denn heyden nymer mer in ir gewalt kumen.... Und darnach in dem selben jare wirt gesetzt ein Babst der sich kayser, fursten, und herren untertenig wirdt machen von gnaden Teutscherr und welischer landt, und von der zwelff gepurt wegen in dem landt zu Babilonia das sich erzeigen ist". [MS. P.: "wirt gesetzt eyn pabst der sich mit dem keyszer und kunig, herren, und fursten vereinigen wirt von frides wegen dewtszh und welischer lanndt von der poszen gepurt wegen in dem land zu Babilonia dy sich ertzeigen ist".]

5 MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT

Theodorius's flaming prophecy is just one of many that could be exploited as valuable source material by students of medieval religious mentalities and religious dissent. Characteristic is his sharp anti- clericalism and warning of bloody chastisement soon to come. Characteristic too is his ambivalence toward Rome: his dissatisfaction with present conditions but ultimate faith in the institution of the papacy and hope for its miraculous purification. Characteristic, finally, is his hope for the imminent coming of a completely reformed era, standing at the end of earthly time, when all the enemies of the faith would be subdued and when Christianity would prevail from sea to sea.

Such expressions of religious dissent have been neglected by modern scholarship in favour of the exhaustive treatment of medieval heresies, but it would seem time for the balance to be redressed.4 It is true that prophecies like those of Theodorius do not include criticism of dogma, but much medieval popular heresy was little concerned with dogma either. Nor can it be objected that Theodorius's prophecy was the work of an isolated lunatic: the form he followed of the prophetic vision received in bed had a genealogy going back at least to the twelfth-century visionary letters of St. Hildegard of Bingen,5 and his content showed familiarity with prophetic themes that were widely current in his age. Although we know little about Theodorius himself, it would surely be inaccurate to dismiss him as the medieval equivalent of a ridiculous cartoon-page

4 A reflection of this situation is that an anthology entitled Religious Dissent in the Middle Ages, ed. J. B. Russell (New York, Ig7r), concerns itself almost exclusively with heresy. The best recent work in English on medieval prophecy is by Marjorie Reeves, notably her The Influence of Prophecy in the Later Middle Ages (Oxford, I969) (hereafter Reeves, Influence of Prophecy), but Reeves does not primarily concern herself with prophecy as an expression of dissent. A study which does do this is Bernhard Topfer, Das kommende Reich des Friedens (Berlin, I964) (hereafter Topfer, op. cit.), a superlative work to which I am greatly endebted. Topfer, however, limits himself to the high middle ages and excludes unpublished prophetic materials. Excellent work, limited to late medieval Italy, has been done by Donald Weinstein: see esp. his Savonarola and Florence (Princeton, I970). Otherwise there is only a scattering of specialized articles and (more rarely) monographs, many of which are flawed most of which are in German or French, and most of which have become dated. Some of my doubts concerning Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium (London, I957; 3rd edn., New York, I970) are expressed towards the end of this article. In wondrous contrast to the paucity of good work on medieval prophecy stands the monumental treatment of prophecy in Tudor and Stuart England in Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic (New York, I97I edn.), pp. I28-50, 389-432*

5 See Elildegard's letter, In lecto aegritudinis diu jacens (ed. J.-P. Migne Patrologiae cursus completus, series latina, cxcvii, cols. 269-7I, no. S2)* Theo- dorius did not need to know Latin to read it because it was available in German translation: see, for exainple, Eberhart Windeckes Denkwurdigheiten zur Geschichte des Zeztalters Szgmunds, ed. Wilhelm Altmann (Berlin, I893), pp. 35I-7, and

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prophet of doom: he was widely travelled and well-informed about disparate political events; he may have been a notary, perhaps in Italy on papal service; and, whatever his source of income, he had the wherewithal to send his prophecy from Italy to Southern Germany where it circulated widely.6

In fact, prophecies like that of Theodorius provide insights into the minds of a much broader stratum than t};at represented by heretics. Far from being a heretic, Theodorius hated even the moderate Hussites and his prophecy was addressed to and read by orthodox Germans of different walks of life. One copy was sent to and presumably received by Duke Ludwig the Rich of Bavaria- Landshut, another appears to have been sent to councillors of Nurnberg, and a third was copied in abbreviated form by a South- German layman named Jorg Zimmermann early in I466, two years after the prophecy proved to be false.7 Zimmermann's polished handwriting shows that he must have had good calligraphical training but he hardly knemT any Latin.8 Fittingly, then, he belonged to just that audience educated at most in the vernacular to which Theodorius appealed when he attacked the clergy for its esoteric use of "a learned tongue". Zimmermann was much better educated than another copyist who used a crude cursive and could barely write Germang - a sign that Theodorius's prophecy was being made available not only to one of the mightiest princes of the South but also to those who were only marginally literate. In total there are at least four surviving fifteenth-century copies of Theodorius's prophecy, all representing

6 MS. N. - admittedly a very corrupt text-has the reading "Maister Theodorus in Pullen gesessen als ein merker [notary?] der diener des herrn [pope?]". (The reigning pope in I463 was Pius II, who, having himself spent long years in Germany, may well have had a German notary in his service.) Theodorius was sufficiently well-informed about politics to know that the pope's best ally was the duke of Burgundy, to know about the enmity between Albert of Austria and George of Bohemia, and to know that the city of Breslau was teetering on the brink of an agreement with the Hussite King George. He was obviously very concerned about the state of the Rhenish prelacies and had a sense of the distance between Venice and Treviso.

7 Respectively: MS. P. (which has the heading "Gesandt ausz Appulia hertzog ludwigen"); MS. N. (inserted into a contemporary Nurnberg town chronicle); and MS. M. On a treatise by the theologiarl J. Hagen about prophecies that circulated in Franconia around I460, see Joseph Klapper, Der Erfurter I(artauser 3rohannes Hagen, 2 vols. (Leipzig, I960), i) p. 75, ii, p. I30.

8 Further insights concerring Zimmermann should emerge from the disserta- tion of Frl. Bohm (see above, note I). In the meantime, see L. Oliger, "Das sozialpolitische Reformprogramm des Eichstatter Eremiten Antonius Zipfer aus dem Jahre I462", in Beitrage zur Geschichte der Renaissance und Reformation 3toseph Schlecht dargebracht (Munich, I9I7), pp. 263-80, esp. p. 265, and the description of MS. M. in Gisela Kornrumpf and P.-G. Yolker, Die deutschen mittelalterlichen Handschriften der Universitatsbibliothek Munchen (Wiesbaden I968), pp. 56-60.

9 I refer to MS. N.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT 7

different families, and thus pointing to a wide contemporary circula- tion, perhaps in some cases by the intermediary steps of oral trans- mission. Doubtless many written copies were circulated on loose sheets and discarded when no earthquakes came in I464.

It has often been noted that heresy apparently began to wane in Germany in the fifteenth centllry: as one forlorn heretic himseif said in I458, "the cause is like a fire going out''.l? This and other evidence has led B. Moeller to argue in a very influential article that piety in Germany in the later fifteenth century was marked by extreme ''churchliness''.ll But Theodorius's castigation of the German prelacy and clergy was circulating just when the heretical fire was apparently dying down. In sllbsequent years similar prophecies continued to have a wide circulation, often aided, as they were, by the utilization of the printing press. Yet Moeller virtually ignores the prophetic genre in his study of piety.

Qne possible reason for this oversight is that the scholarly literature on medieval prophecy is still remarkably slight. Theodorius's prophecy, far shorter but just as interesting and symptomatic as the well-known Book of One Hundred Chapters,l2 remains to this day unpublished, as do many other intriguing high and late medieval prophetic texts. Scores more have yet to be studied in detail. What follows is a sketch of some guidelines and questions that have emerged from my own work on medieval religious prophecy, written to help crystallize problems, elicit criticism, and perhaps serve as an

* . .

ncentlve to others.

My working assumption is that much of the conterst of medieval religious prophecy can be read as the expression of dissatisfaction with the present and hope for the future. As Dollinger long ago recognized, "what many desired, without being able to bring about by

10 The words of Friedrich Reiser, on whom see now D. Kurze, "Markische Waldenser und Bohmische Bruder. Zur brandenburgischen Ketzergescilichte und ihrer Nachwirkung im I5. und I6. Jahrhundert", in Helmut Beumann (ed.), Festschrift fur Walter Schlesinger, 2 vols. (Mitteldeutsche Forschungen, lxxiv [Cologne, I974]), pp. 456-so2, at p. 47I.

11 B. Moeller's article has been translated from the German into English twice: first as "Piety in Germany around I500", in Steven E. Ozment (ed.), The Reformation in DIedieval Perspective (Chicago, I97I), pp. 50-75, and secondly as "Religious Life in Germany on the Eve of the Reformation", in Gerald Strauss (ed.), Pre-Reformation Germany (New York, I972), pp. I3-42. An excellent appraisal, which wisely points to the charged combination of piety and anti-clericalism in pre-Reformation Germany, is W. D. J. Cargill Thompson, "Seeing the Reformation in Medieval Perspective", yl. Eccles. Hist., xxv (I974), pp. 297-308.

12 On the text of the anonymous Book of One Hundred CStapters, written between I498 and ISIo, see below, note 52.

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their own efforts, became dressed in the clothes of prediction''.l3 But medieval prophecies had to rest on some recognized source of insight, for credulous as medieval people might seem today, they continually showed great resistance to mere prophetic ''conjecture''.l4 No one could put himself forward as a prophet merely on the grounds that he had some rare gift of clairvoyance, or "psi function", let alone write clearly fictional reformist prophecy like Edward Bellamy's Looking Backward.l5 Instead there were four (not always mutually exclusive) methods for gaining a hearing. I would call them the visionary, the Biblical, the astrological, and the pseudonymous prophetic ways.ls (I exclude from consideration here translations from prophecies originally written in Greek or Armenian, a subject for which I have little competence but which certainly merits further study.)l7

13 J. J I. Dollinger, "Der Weissagungsglaube und das Prophetentum" Historisches Taschenbuch, 5th ser., i (I87I), cited by Martin Erbstosser Sozialreligiose Stromungen im spaten Mittelalter (Berlin, I970), p. 30. Thomas Op. Cit., p. I38, also concludes that seventeenth-century religious prophets "found it easier to represent their demands as the result of heavenly visions than to risk putting them forward as their private opinions".

14 A patristic point of departure for this resistance was Augustine's distinction in his City of God, xviii. 52, between '<prophetic inspiration" and '<conjecture of the human mind". Some examples of the subsequent resistance to human conjecture about the future are: St. Thomas, Commentum in Librum I Y Sententiarum (echoing St. Augustine), as cited by Reeves, IngFuence of Prophecy, p. 69; John of Paris, De adventu Antichristi (also echoing St. Augustine), as cited by F. Pelster, "Die Quaestio Heinrichs von Harclay uber die sweite Ankunft Christi", Archivio italiano per la storia della pietA, i (I95I) pp. 25-82, at p. 39; and Henry of Langenstein, Contra quendam eremitam, as cited by Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, p. 426.

16 Edward Bellamy, Looking Backward (Boston, I888; frequently repr.). 16 My taxonomy is related to, but somewhat different from, that of R. W.

Southern, who distinguishes between Biblical, pagan, Christian, and cosmic prophecies: see his "Aspects of the European Tradition of Historical Writing: 3. History as Prophecy", Trans. Roy. IIist. Soc., sth ser., xxii (I972), pp. t5t80, at pp. I62-72, an essay characteristically provocative and full of insight. A method that eludes my taxonomy is that of the anonymous early thirteenth- century tract, De semine scripturarum, which bases prophecy on the alphabet. See on it, H. Grundmann, "Uber die Schriften des Alexander von Roes" Deutsches Archiv fiEr Erforschung des Mittelalters, viii (I950), pp. I54-237, at pp. I6I-2, and E. R. Daniel, "Roger Bacon and the De seminibus scripturarum", Mediaeval Studies, xxxiv (I972), pp. 462-7

17 Examples of translation from the Greek are the fourteenth-century "pope prophecies" treated by H. Grundmann, "Die Papstprophetien des Mittelalters" Archiv fur Kulturgeschichte, xix (I929), pp. 77-I59, and by M. E. Reeves, "Some Popular Prophecies from the Fourteenth to the Seventeenth Centuries" Studies in Church Hist., viii (I97I), pp. I07-34. A translation from the Armenian is the "vision of Narses", mentioned by G. A. Bezzola, Die Mongolen in abendlandischer Sicht (1220-I270), (Bern, I974), p. I8I, without knowledge of the Latin translation found in the following MSS.: Vatican Library, Rome Vat. Iat. 3822, fo. I I2r-I I2V; ibid., Vat. Reg. Iat. I32, fos. 95v-96v * Studien- bibliothek, Linz, I02, rear fly-leaf and Universitatsbibliothek, Breslau Rehdiger 280, fos. 6V-8r.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT 9

The visionary route was the one taken by Theodorius, probably irl imitation of the visions of Hildegard of Bingen. Ultimately, visionary prophecy had its origins in the Bible. Just as God granted knowledge of future events by means of visions and transports vouchsafed to Daniel and John of Patmos, so it was thought that he continued to do so for saints such as Hildegard and Bridget and for specially chosen monks, hermits, and even laymen. Thus medieval prophecies often begin with a prologue explaining that the course of the future was made clear in a vision granted to the prophet while he or she was lying in bed (sometimes a sickbed), participating in mass, or reading psalms.l8 If the setting seemed right and the prophet worthy, the vision might be widely accepted: Hildegard was regarded as an object of inspiration in her lifetime and was widely revered as "the German Sibyl" in the later middle ages. lD To what degree medieval visionaries actually thought they saw the visions they reported can seldom be determined. As a secular historian I assume, however, that whether visions came from dreams, over-wrought emotional states, or were sometimes purely fictional, they all may be treated as products of the human mind.

A second route was that taken by penetrating into the meaning of the Bible itself. This could be done in different ways. One might comment on books like Daniel or Revelation (or passages there- from) that seemed clearly prophetic in content; or one might find prophetic meaning even where it did not seem to lie on the surface, as did the French exegete who argued that each verse of the Psalter corresponded to a year since the Incarnation.20 Far more subtle

18 Examples of the vision seen in bed are Theodorius's prophecy and the letter of Hildegard (see above, note 5). The vision seen during mass occurs in the "Tripoli prophecy" discussed below. The vision seen while reading the Psalter occurs in the "John of Parma" vision, on which see, provisionally E. Donckel, "Visio seu prophetia fratris Johannis. Eine suditalienische Prophezeiung aus dem Anfang des I4. Jahrhunderts", Romische QuartalschrzYt, xl (I932), pp. 36I-79. This and subsequent illustrative footnotes are not intended to be exhaustilre.

19 A study of Hildegard's reputation as a prophetess is needed. A selection of admiring remarks written about her in her own time is in Ernest wT.

McDonnell, The Beguines and Beghards in Afedieval Culture (New Brunswick New Jersey, I954), pp. 28I-2. She is called the German Sibyl by Henry of Langenstein: see G. Sommerfeldt, "Die Prophetien der hl. Hildegard von Bingen in einem Schreiben des Magisters Heinrich von Langenstein (I383), und Langensteins Trostbrief uber den Tod eines Bruders des NYrormser Bischofs Eckard von Ders (um I384)", Historisches 3fahrbuch, xxx (I909), pp. 43-6I, 297-307, at p. 47 (I do not know whether this designation originated with Henry).

20 See Noel Valois, "Conseils et predictions adresses a Charles VII en I445 par un certain Jean du Bois", A7znuaire-Bulletin de la Societe de l'Histoire de France, ilvi (I909), pp. 20I-38, at pp. 208, 226, 23I. The system of prediction based on the Psalter was already attacked in I4I2 by Vincent Ferrer: see his letter De tempore Antichristi, in Notes et documents de llistoire de Saint Vincent Ferrier, ed. H. Fages (Louvain) I905), p. 2I4.

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and ambitiolls was the complex system of concordances between the chronology of the old dispensation and the new worked out by Joachim of Fiore. Though Joachim ranked with Hildegard as one of the most influential of medieval prophets, he himself insisted that he was not a prophet at all but only one given the "spirit of intelligence" to understand thle mystery of Holy Scripture.2l

More controversial as a source of prophetic knowledge than visions or Biblical esegesis uras astrology, a scionce condemned by the Fathers and neglected in the early middle ages but revived in the West in the twelfth century as a result of Arabic influences. Far from counting as a backward superstition, astrology was cultivated by the most advanced scientific minds of the high and late middle ages as an integral part of the new Greco-Islamic astronomy. Indeed, as R. W. Southern has justly said, astrology "offered the finest field for human thought that could be found".22 Christian theologians tended to resist the new astrological movement, but most did not reject it out of hand, falling back instead on the compromise of St. Augustine, who conceded in the City of God, v. I, that "it may be said that the stars give notice of events and do not bring those events about, so that: the position of the stars becomes a kind of statement, predicting, not producing, future happenings". 23 Whatever the theologians concluded, there is no doubt that astrological prediction enjoyed an enormous medieval vogue: for example, the "Toledo Letter", a prophecy certainly as popular as the works of Hildegard or Joachim, was based on astrological reckonings.24

My last classification, pseudonymous prophecy, is a cover-all term for a wide variety of bogus productions. Many would-be prophets feared that if they spoke or wrote in their own voices no one would heed them, so they resorted to fraud. The modern student is therefore overwhelmed by spuria Pseudo-Hildegards, Pseudo-

21 On Joachim's self-estimation, see Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, pp. I3, I6. 22 From R. W. Southern, "Commentary", in A. C. Crombie (ed.), Scientific

Change (New York, I963), p. 302. There is no thorough history of medieval astrology. For a sampling of medieval attitudes, see Theodore O. Wedel The Medieval Attitude towardRs Sstrology, Particularly in England (New Haven, I920), and Nicholas H. Steneck, "A Late Medieval Arbor Scientiarum", Speculum, 1 (I975), pp. 245-69, at pp. 264-5. An old but still useful survey of astrological prophecy is F. von Bezold, "Astrologische Geschichtsconstruction im Mittelalter", Deutsche Zeitschrift fur Geschichtswissenschaft) viii (I892), pp. 29-72, repr. in his Aus Mittelalter und Renaissance (Munich, I9I8), pp. I65-95. Detailed information about particular astrologers can be garnered from the volumes of Lynrl Thorndike, A History of Magic and Experimental Science, 8 vols. (New York, I923-58).

2 3 I quote from the translation by Henry Bettenson, Concerning the City of God against the Pagans, ed. David Knowles (Harmondswortll, I972), p. I80.

24 Still best on the Toledo Letter is Hermann Grauert, "Meister Johann von Toledo", Sitzungsberichte der koniglichen bayerischen Skademieder Wissenschafte (Munich) I9OI, Part 2, pp. III-325.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT I I

Joachims, even numerous Pseudo-Toledo Letters. Pagan Mediter- ranean and Celtic mythology made their contributions in the form of newly-minted prophecies attributed to various Sibyls and Merlins.25 Sometimes spurious old prophecies were allegedly discovered or dug up, sometimes spurious new ones were allegedly sent from the mysterious East, sometisnes prophetic letters allegedly rained down from heaven.26 Often the same prophecy, occasionally altered in certain details, was passed off as the work of different prestigious authors. To take one particularly protean pseudonymity, a prophecy first written arollnd I300 was attributed in several different re- incarnations to the thirteenth-century Franciscan general John of Parma, to a Dominican brother John Romanus (John Colonna?), to a certain "Raymundus" (Raymond Lull?), to St. Hildegard, to the noted fourteenth-century theologian Henry of Langenstein, and to the Emperor Sigismund. Little is known about the real author of this prophecy except for the certainty that he was not any of the above. 27

The proliferation of pseudonymous texts is merely one illustration of the fact that the genre of medieval prophecy encompassAs an astounding number and variety of frauds. Does this fact weigh heavily against my assumption that prophetic texts can be read as expressions of heartfelt discorltents and hopes? I do not think so. The case of the "Tripoli prophecy") a very popular medieval text that contains typical frauds such as a fabricated miracle, prophecy

25 On the Sibyls see, for example, B. McGinn, "Joachi.m and the Sibyl" Czteaux, xxiv (I973), pp. 97-I38, at pp. I I6-I9. According to some commenta- tors, there were in fact two Merlins: MerliIl Silvester and Merlin Ambrose. On this, see Paul Zumthor, Merlin le prophAte (Univ. of Geneva dissertation- Lausanne, I943), p. 72, note I; Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic, p. 394 - and verses distinguishing the two iIl Trinity College, Dublin, MS. SI7, fo. I38 (I owe this reference to a draft catalogue by Marvin L. Colker).

26 An example of "discovered" prophecy-"Quando ego Thomas"-is treated by T. A. Sandquist, "The Holy C)il of St. Thomas of Canterbury" in T. A. Sandquist and M. R. Powicke (eds.), Essays in Medieval History Presented to Bertie Wilkinson (Toronto, Ig6g), pp. 330-44. A prophecy about Antichrist allegedly sent from the East by the Grandmaster of Rhodes, is in the Bayerische Staatsbibliothek, Munich, Einblattdruck V, 57 (there are earlier MS. copies). On heavenly letters, see Erbstosser, Sozialreligiose Stromungen im spaten Mittelalter, pp. 39-47, who provides a further bibliography.

27 The Latin original of tbis prophecy is edited by Donckel, op. cit. On subsequent German versions see, provisionally, Carl Koehne, "Die Weissagung auf das Jahr I40I", Deutsche Zeitschrift fur Geschichtswissenschaft, new ser., i (I897), pp. 35262, and F. Lauchert, "Materialien zur Geschichte der Kaiser- prophetie im Mittelalter", Historisches 3tahrbach, xix (I898), pp. 844-72, at pp. 852-67. A prophecy attributed to Bede, Becket, and Jakob Boehme, among others, is treated by Thomas, op. cit., pp. 395, 4I4, and Dietrich Kurze, 3rohannes Lichtenberger (Lubeck, I960), p. 80 (both citing further literature, the largely English transmission known to Thomas is rlearly exclusive of the largely continental one known to KurzeD.

I2 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER 72

ex eventu, plagiarism, and purposeful obfuscation may be taken here as illustrative.28 Around I240, at a time of great eschatological hopes and fears catalyzed by the dramatic appearance of the Mongols, a short prophecy circulated in the West that purported to be the text of a divine message seen in a vision by a Cistercian monk during mass. Whether or not there really was a monk who thought he saw a disembodied hand writing out a prophecy during mass, we know for sure that when the same story circulated a half-century later it was the product of what we today would call a hoax. Specifically, around I29223 an unknown writer in Western Europe resurrected the old account of the miraculous message, but now, moved by the downfall of the last Christian outposts in the Holy Land, he set the purported miracle in a Cistercian monastery in SyriaIl Tripoli and altered some of the content of the prophecy. He certainly was a westerner because he was ignorant of the circumstances that there was no Cistercian monastery in Tripoli and that the nearest such monastery had ceased to exist several years before the fabricated miracle was supposed to have taken place.30

The same dishonest author calculatingly dated his miracle to I287 and included in his miraculous message predictions of the imminent fall of Tripoli and Acre, events which in fact happened in I289 and I29I. Here he clearly shaped prophecies ex eventu,3l designed to 28 I am currently working on a full-length study of the Tripoli prophecy in which I will treat the various manuscript traditions. Provisionally, see refer- ences to the text in Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I45-6, and Reinhold Rohricht, Geschichte des konigreichs fferusalem (Innsbruck, I898), p. 998, note 4. 29 The prophecy was primarily inspired by the fall of Acre in I29I. It could not have been written much later than I296 because a revised version appears in a chronicle terminated around that date: Emonis et Menkonis Werumensium Chronica (Monumenta Germaniae Historica, Scriptores, xxiii. Hanover, I874), pp. 567-8. A firm terminus ante quem is I300 because the prophecy appears in John of Paris's De Antichristo of that date: see H. Denifle, "Der Plagiator Nicolaus von Strassburg", Archiv fur Literatur- und Kirchegeschichte des Mittelalters, iv (I888), pp. 3I2-29, at pp. 325-6. (It is worth noting that the sober theologian John of Paris. Op. Cit., included the spurious Tripoli prophecy among the sayings of "the saints" and judged that it had already been proven true in part).

30 D. H. Williams, "Cistercian Settlement in the Lebanon", Czteaux, xxv (I974), pp. 6I-74, at p. 7I. Williams correctly judges that the Tripoli prophecy is no proof for the existence of a Cistercian monastery in Tripoli in I287, but mistakenly concludes that the words "in claustro grisei ordinis Tripolis" refer to a Franciscan house there. 31 Paul J. Alexander, "Medieval Apocalypses as Historical Sources", AHler. Hist. Rev., 1xxiii (I968), pp. 997-IOI8, at p. IOOO, observes tellingly that "it will not do to interpret every apocalyptic prophecy as a vaticinium ex eventu" because sometimes a prophet might have been smart enough to see the direction events w ere taking. But an observer in I287 would have had to have been extraordinarily prescient to have foreseen the fall of Tripoli and Acre in the very near future, for some contributory circumstances were hardly predictable and even Christians on the scene were hardly prepared for what happened: see Hans Eberhard Mayer, The Crusades (New York, I972), p. 273.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT I3

lend credence to other accomp<anying predictions which had yet to transpire. Otherwise he plagiarized some of the language of the original prophecy of I240, added words that he found in yet another earlier prophecy,32 and wove in predictions of his own. Some of the words he borrowed referred to events long passed, such as the onslaught of the Mongols, and by the I290S had no obvious meaning. This, however, did not bother the prophet who was not averse to including in his text portentous sounding nonsense. Even some allusions that he coined himself were probably as obscure to him as they are to modern readers.

The Tripoli prophet, then, surely resorted to deviousness. He wrote, not in a trance, but seated at a desk, where he c<arefully fabricated a prophecy out of borrowed words, deliberate decep- tions, and a modicum of planned obfuscation. Still, it does not follow that he was a cynic. We cannot term his verbal borrowings cynical when we know that no dishonour was attached to plagiarism in the middle ages. Some of his obscurities may have come less from hedging than from his sense that prophecies were supposed to be full of difficult obscure images, for even Biblical prophecies were written this way.33 As for his grosser dishonesties, they seem most com- parable to the work of the many medieval pious forgers who knew full well that they were forging but were convinced that they were doing so for a higher good. No doubt the prophet felt that if he fabricated a report of a miraculous vision, used prophetic language that had already stood the test of time, and added some ex eventu details, his prophecy would gain wider credence than if he relied on forthright self-identification and originality.34 And indeed he was right, if we can judge by the indubitable popularity of his text. Surely, however, he did not write to gain fame, for he knew that no one would even learn his name. Rather, he had some burning messages to communicate. These we can now look at not only as proof of his earnestness but as illustrations of characteristic high and late medieval religious-prophetic themes.

To begin with, it seems clear that, whatever his deceits, the Tripoli prophet was genuinely moved by the fall of the last outposts in the

3 2 The last words of the Tripoli prophecy appear to have been borrowed from the "Corruent nobiles" prophecy, written shortly after I250. An edition of it is in Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, p. 50 (see also p. 525).

3 3 On obscurity as a required ingredient for successful prophecy, see Southern "Aspects of the European Tradition of Historical Writing: 3. History as Prophecy, p. I 6 I .

34 A similar treatment of pseudonymity, plagiarism, and fiction in medieval hagiography is in Klaus Schreiner, "Zum Wahrheitsverstandnis im Heiligen- und Reliquienwesen des Mittelalters", Saeculum, xxvii (I966), pp. I3I-69, for example, p. I54: ". . . none of these sealots consciously wished to deceive, each was convinced that he served a good cause and was aiding his religion". Professor R. A. Kieckhefer kindly called my attention to this article.

I4 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER 72

Holy Land. This can be seen by his dramatic setting of his vision in doomed Tripoli and his portentous opening words that "the high cedar of Lebanon" would soon be felled. In fact the debacle of the late thirteenth century in the East played a role in inspiring not only him but others to prophesy. The "John of Parma" prophecy was allegedly the result of a vision seen while the visionary was lamenting the fall of Acre shortly after I29I and the sanze calamity was predicted ex eventu in at least two other prophecies written shortly after the events.35 This is characteristic of the circumstance that religious prophecies very often were prompted by or set against the background of apparent calamities. Otller comparable examples are the fall of Jerusalem in I I 87, the Mongol threat, the Black Death, the prolonged Great Schism, and the fall of Constantinople inW I453. To this list should be added natural disasters and prodigies (including occurrences known to be in the offing, such as astronomical conjunctions). Events like these-some of which might not seem at all notable today -prompted reflective minds to ponder over the state of the world and to become conlrinced that even more dramatic events were soon to come.

It is often thought that medieval prophecies can be sorted out into clearly optimistic and pessimistic species, but that is mistaken. The Tripoli prophecy, like Theodorius's prophecy treated at the outset and most others I know of) predicted both dreadful and wonderful future happenings. After the fall of Tripoli and Acre were to come days of rage - great battles, massacres, famines, plag}esX and mutations of kingdoms. The clergy and Christianity in general would be greatly threatened, the Ship of Peter would be tossed in the waves but would escape destruction. Not so, however, the mendi- cant orders, which would be annihilated. But in the end the Holy See would triumph, the world would be united, and there would be peace and abundance of fruit for fifteen years. Then there would be a successful crusade, the Holy Sepulchre would be honoured) axld during this tranquil time news would be heard of Antichrist.

Practically all of these details are typical. Of greatest interest in the present context are the prophet's religious predictions. It is not certain whether he thought the papacy's trials were merited punishments but there is little doubt that he was pleased about the

35 The "John of Parma" prophecy is ed. Donckel, op. cit. The two other prophecies are "Ve mundo irl centum annis", on which see Heinrich Finke, Aus den Tagen Bonifaz VIII (Munster, I902), p. 2I8, and the "Columbinus" prophecy, a curtailed version of which is edited by E. Boutaric, "Notices et extraits de documents inedits relatifs a l'histoire de France sous Philippe le Bel", Notices et extraits des manuscrits de la Bibliotheque Impe'riale, rx, 2 (Paris, I862), pp. 235-7, but see rather the full text in Brit. Lib., MS. Cott. Cleopatra C. x, fos. I57r-rS8r.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT IS

destruction of the mendicant orders, for 02e bracketed this prophecy with predictions of other distinctly good rather than evil events. No mention of the annihilation of the mendicant orders can be found in his exemplar of c. I240: the innovation no doubt reflects the growth of disenchantment with the mendicants that spread in Europe in the second half of the thirteenth century.36 The exemplar, however, itself warned the clergy to beware and predicted woe for the Church if a flourishing new order should fall. This is just one indication of the fact that even in the thirteenth century the need for clerical reform was emerging as an important prophetic theme.

Sometimes, indeed, stress on the need for reform was barely dis- tinguishable from outright anticlericalism. Already in the twelfth century St. Hildegard had prophesied the coming persecution and chastisement of the clergy in tones of great bitterness.37 In the second half of the thirteenth century, prophecies that circulated in Italy and Germany foretold that a new "Frederick from the East" would take the pope prisoner, that a new Frederick would greatly humble the German clergy and the Roman Church, and that a new Emperor would come under whose reign "the vainglory of the clergy" would cease.38 The "John of Parma" prophecy, written in Italy around I300, predicted that the avaricious clergy would lDe punished by being given wood for its gold and glass for its gems. Coming persecutions of the clergy would be so great that many priests would try to hide their tonsures in order to avoid recognition.39 This last image was so vivid that it reoccurred in numerous other late medieval prophetic texts. Around I348, for example, a prophecy circulated in Swabia that the Emperor Frederick II would return and, among other things, persecute members of the clergy so terribly that they would try to hide by covering their tonsures with cow dung.40

When scatology mixes with eschatology it suices to break off this enumeration of anticlerical expressions and move on to tEle more positive aspecfs of the Tripoli prophecy and medieval prophecy in general. Just as the Tripoli prophet foresaw a time of Christian triumph and marvellous peace, so did most other medieval prophets.

36 This has already been noticed by Topfer, op. czt., p. 146. 37 Ibid., p. 35, citing passages from the original sources. 38 Respectively: the prophecy "Reg1labit Menfridus", on which see Topfer

Op. Cit., pp. I69-70, and Reeves, Inflence of Prophecy, pp. 3II-I2 (a hitherto unknown thirteenth-century copy, containing important variant readings, first called to my attention by Dr. A. Patschovsky, is in Stiftsbibliothek, Admont [Austria], MS. 326, fo. 230v); a prophecy alluded to by Alexander von Roes, on which see Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I74-5- and the prophecy "Gallorum levitas", on which see Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I 856, and Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, p. 3 r2.

39 On this prophecy, see above notes I8 and 27. 40 On this see Topfer, Op. Cit., p. I78. Other examples of the motif are listed

by Kurze, 3'ohanne.s Liclztenberger, p. 28, note I66.

PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER 72

The major disagreement among them was whether they thought this time would come before or after the reign of Antichrist. Relying on the earlier tradition of Pseudo-Methodius and the Tiburtine Sibyl, one class of prophecies (Theodorius's prophecy and the Tripoli prophecy among them) foresaw a wondrous happy time coming before the advent of Antichrist. Usually these prophecies foretold that this triumph would be brought about by one or more great rulers: Theodorius predicted the triumphant reign of a converted Saracen king and the Tripoli prophecy foretold the victory of a "beast of the West" together with a "lion of the East" (probably the rulers of France and Germany). Prophecies of peace, plenty, and world unity brought about by mighty rulers gained strength from two directions: they were cultivated by monarchical publicists since they served as excellent vehicles for the expression of dynastic ambitions and they were often circulated with enthusiasm by the masses of the medieval under-privileged who usually had deep faith in the charisma of real or hoped-for kings 4l

The alternative view that a wondrous age would come after the death of Antichrist was more frequently transmitted by clerical writers who predicted that the purging of the world would be brought about not by heroic secular monarchs but by the forces of Antichrist and Antichrist himselE. This variety of prophecy has often been associated with the name of Joachim of Fiore but I have shown elsewhere that it had its roots in an orthodox exegetical tradition which dated back to the work of St. Jerome.42

The differences between the 'sSibylline" and "Joachite" traditions are interesting and illuminating, but for present purposes it is enough to say that they usually concurred in foretelling that, after an imminent time of trial and chastisement, a new age of peace would prevail during which there would be a better) reformed Church, the enemies of the faith would be converted, and a purified Christiansty would flourish everywhere. Prophecies from both traditions usually foretold that old institutions, such as the papacy, would become thoroughly reformed rather than completely destroyed (a token of the fact that

41 Profitable insights into this subject are provided by T6pfer, op. cit., passim, and F. Graus, "Die Herrschersagen des Mittelalters als Geschichtsquelle" Archiv fiAr Kult?wrgeschichte, li (I969), pp. 65S3. On prophecies as expressions of incipient nationalism, see D. Kurze "Nationale Regungen in der spatmittelalterlichen Prophetie", Historische Zeitschrifi, CCii (I966), pp. I-23.

42 The distinction between "SibyllineX' and "Joachite" prophetic systems is best stated by M. Reeves, "Joachimist Influences on the Idea of a Last World Emperor", Traditio, xvii (I96I), pp. 323-70, at pp. 323-5, and in Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, pp. 299-303. My argument that the "Joachimist" alternative was in fact traditional is developed in my forthcoming "Refreshment of the Saints: The Time after Antichrist as a Station for Earthly Progress in Medieval Thought", TraditiZ xii (I976).

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT I7

human beings are usually disquieted by the idea of facing a totally new future and find comfort instead in looking forward to at least a modicum of familiarity). In view of such concord it must be concluded that medieval religious prophecies whatever calculating deceptions tlley may have contained-were most often vehicles for the expression of heartfelt religious dissent and intense hopes for the fu1:ure. The Tripoli prophet, Meister Theodorius, and dozens like them did not feel free to express their criticisms and hopes forth- rightly but vented them without inhibition when they employed the vehicle of prophecy. Whether they fully realized what they were doing is impossible to say but in the last analysis is 1lot a matter of central importance.

The interpretation of medieval religious prophecy as the expression of intense biases and hopes seems confirmed by the fact that such prophecy was usually received with awe and enthusiasm. The attitudes of prophets, in other words, were clearly in tune with those of their public. Scepticism about religious prophecy can sometimes be found in the middle ages, but such was usually expressed by schooled theologians or expressed after certain predictions were unequivocally disproved by the actual course of events. Too delight- ful not to be quoted is the remark of a fifteenth-century English chronicler that Joachim of Fiore "be gret craft ... drove oute the zear in whech the day of dome schuld falle. But he failed foule and erred in his counting".43

Opposed to such cases of scepticism from hindsight are numerous instances of deep credulity, such as the fact that on receiving the "Toledo Letter", which foretold great disasters for the year II86,

Archbishop Baldwin of Canterbury ordered a three-day fast for his entire province.44 It tsnight be thought that when II86 passed uneverstfully the embarrassment of those like Baldwin who took the Toledo Letter seriously would have been great enough to put an end to its subse?uent transmission. But, quite to the contrary, the life of the Toledo Letter was just beginning: with changed dates and greater or lesser alterations it was recirculated throughout Europe until the end of the middle ages and continued to inspire great fears and hopes in its readers. Similarly, the Tripoli prophecy, first purported to have been the product of a vision of I287,W3S redated tOI29I,I297,

I346,I347,I348,I357,I387,I396,I400,I487, and no doubt several

43 Reeves, Infl?ence of Prophecy, p. 70, citing John Capgrave. Reeves's study is a treasure trove of information about the reception of Joachite prophecy.

44 Grauert, "Meister Johann von Toledo", p. I82.

I8 PAST AND PRESENT

NUMBER 72 other dates. Parts of it were still being transmitted in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. 45 Isolating a medieval prophetic text, then, is often like trying to pull up a stubborn root in one's garden: no sooner do you think yoll have it all removed than you find that it really ramifies far more deeply and widely. The Tripoli prophecy might first seem like an isolated late thirteenth-century text before one recognizes that an ancestor was written half a century earlier and descendants spread all over Europe almost to the dawn of the Enlightenment.46 Texts like the Toledo Letter or the Tripoli prophecy exist in scores of medieval copies. It is nearly impossible to find tElem all because they were often copied into blank spaces of manusc1ipts and subsequently overlooked or ignored by modern cataloguers. Still, a partial history of the forturles of the Toledo Letter is a fascinating chapter in the history of the medieval mind. Other more thorough histories of the fortunes of other prophecies should certainly be attempted: whatever else they might show, it is clear that they would prove that the continued lack of fulfilment of religious prophecies was no obstacle to their perennial circulation because they embodied expectations that were intense and unshakeable.

That leaves me, in conclusion, with suggestions for three other directions that I think the intensive study of medieval prophecy might profitably take. First, I agree with Paul J. Alexander that measllre- ment of the incidence of apocalyptic prophecy could "serve as a kind of barometer for the measuring of eschatological pressures at a given time"47 and I think that the number of surviving copies of medieval prophecies is suiciently great to support a semi-quantitative study of the incidence of prophecy in the high and late middle ages. Most likely the use of Alexander's barometer would show usillsually high "eschatological pressures" at times of unusually dramatic upheavals like the fall of the last outposts in the Holy Land or the advent of the Black Death. But I also think that eschatological pressures were always very high during the high and lnte middle ages. 45 On the fortunes of the Toledo Letter, see ibid., which presents only a partial account because Grauert relies primarily on published material. In the study I am now working on, I am documenting the fortunes of the Tripoli prophecy. On the phenomenon of redating prophecy, see also Southern "Aspects of the European Tradition of Historical g riting: 3. History as Prophecy", p. t77, and Morton Bloomfield, Piers Plowman c;ws c2 ozlrteent71- Century Apocalypse (New Brunswick, New Jersey, I96I), p. 93. A similar view of Byzantine apocalypses as "living texts" is in Alexander, "Medieval Apocalypses as Historical Sources", p. I004. 46 Jean Leclercq, "Textes et manuscrits cisterciens dans des bibliotheques des Stats-Unis", Traditio, xvii (I96I), pp. I63-83, falls into the error of assum- ing that a fourteenth-century version of the Tripoli prophecy represents a unlque orlg1nal text. 4 7 Alexander, op. cit., p. I002.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT I9

Excluding some truly tempestuous years, the plotting of moving averages would, I think, show a remarkably steady graph of high pressures. It is true that religious prophecies were usually inspired by apparent calamities, but events that disturbed contemporaries occurred at a more or less uninterrupted rate: there was never a paucity of Christian defeats, deaths of charismatic rulers, astral con- junctions, or eclipses. l&oreover, such events were only catalysts and not always necessary ones-for the expression of discontents and hopes that persisted from at least the twelfth century onwards. The thirteenth cetltury-comparatively placid seeming to us had its full share of dissenting prophecy, and if the amount seems to increase in the late middle ages (an impression that is by no means fully verified) it may be because many more documents of all kinds survive from the later period.48

In other words, I believe that chiliasm - by which I mean hope for supernaturally inspired, imminent, and sweeping this-worldly change

was far less anomalous in Western Europe from the twelfth to the sixteenth centuries than is often supposed. I think that chiliasm was not just the ideology of lllnatic-fringe "fanatics" arld uprooted classes and its expression was probably a chronological constant rather than the occasional product of materially dislocating disasters. 49

To express this bibliographically, I believe that Norman Colln's pathfinding Tke Pursuit of the Millennium (now tenZpas fugit

almost twenty years old) was based on insufficient knowledge of 1lnpublished primary sources and that those who follow Cohn - - such as, mos, recently, Michael Barkun - in associating millennialism solely with backgrounds of disaster have been misled.50 Such treat- ments miss the contirluity of a millerlnial undertow in NVestern European Cllristianity.

But second, for all the consistency that the se*ni-quantitative study 48 Hans Martin Schaller, "Endzeit-Erwartung und Antichrist-Vorstellungen

in der Politik des I3. Jahrhunderts", in Festschrift fur Hermann Heimpel zum 70 Geburtstag, 3 vols. (Gottingen, I97I-2), ii, pp. 924-47, documents well the pervasiveness of lively eschatological hopes and fears in the thirteenth century but seems mistaken in assuming that the thirteenth century was the last in which such viesvs played an important role in political and cultural life. I agree instead with Bioomfield, Op. Cit., p. 9I, that "he would indeed be foolhardy who would attempt to speak of any period as favoring vaticination over any other".

49 For the interest in chiliastic prophecy displayed by the otherwise sober fourLeenth-century monk-administrator Henry of Kirkestede, subprior of Bury St. Eidmunds, see Richard H. Rouse, "Bostonus Buriensis and the Author of the Catalogus Scriptorum ECcclesiae", Speculum, xli (I966), pp. 47I-99, at pp. 4g2-3. I will be commenting further on this and similar examples in my study of the Tripoli prophecy.

50 M. Barkun, Disaster and the Millennium (New Haven, I974), iS a provoca- tive attempt at synthesis which argues, here following Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millermi7wm, on naedieval Western Europe, that "millenarian movements almost always occur in times of upheaval" (p. 45). I think that this statement is defensible only if one considers a "millenarian movement" to be a highly visible uprising or incidence of apparent collective mania.

PAST AND PRESENT 20 NUMBER 72

of the incidence of medieval prophecy might show, further intensive study of certain specific texts that contain telling changes of detail would, I think, reveal how certain themes emerged and developed in certain times and places. An example already alluded to is the emergence of hostility toward the mendicant orders found by com- paring the Tripoli prophecy against its earlier exemplar. Sometimes there is such a profusion of manuscript evidence that it should be possible to display the spread of certain themes like the march of armies on detailed battle maps. Since changing themes grew out of changing conditions, intensive study should help to illuminate our knowledge of changing conditions as well as cllanging ideas. A particularly intriguing question is whether late medieval lay prophecy written in the European vernaculars - made possible by the spread of lay literacy in the later middle ages displays greater radicalism than Latin prophecies writterl by clerics. The text of Meister Theodorius's prophecy suggests an affirmative answer, but a11 the relevant evidence has not yet been gathered, let alone carefully evaluated.

Finally, even though all the evidence is not yet in, it can still be said that careful attention to prophetic evidence would prove fruitful for students of pre-Reformation German religious attitudes.5l To reiterate two points that I made at the outset: although heresy may have decreased in late medieval GermaIly, dissenting prophecy certainly did not; and the incidence of the latter is a more valuable index of popular attitudes than the incidence of the former. Numerous Latin and vernacular prophecies which circulated in pre-Reformation Germany, far from reflecting B. Moellers "churchliness", expressed deep dissatisfaction with the state of the Church, warnings of coming chastisement for the corrupt clergy, and hopes for religious reform in the future. Some of these texts have not yet received any published notice and none, acide from The Reformalion of Kaiser Sigismund, lwhe Book of One Hndrfed Chapters, and the predictions of Jollannes Lichtenberger, has yet been studied with appropriate care. 5 2 Here, in conclusion, I can only

61 The onlzr detailed study I know of along these lines is J. Rohr, ':Die Prophetie im letzten Jahrhundert vor der Reformation als Geschichtsquelle und Geschichtsfaktor", Historisches yahrbuch, xix (I898), pp. 29-56, 447-66, a useful work but one which rests exclusively on published evidence and which is now out of date.

s2 Recent studies of the Reformatio Sigismundi that approach it frorn different points of view are H. Koller, "Revolution des I5. Jahrhunderts", MedioWevalia Bohemica, iii (I970), pp. 229-36 - a convincing rejoinder tO Lothar su Dohna, Reformatio Sigismundi (Gottingen, s960)-and 1?. de Vooght, "Les Hussites et la 'Reformatio Sigismundi' ", in Remigius Baumer (ed.), Von Konstazz nzcll Trient (Festgabe fur August Franzen) (Munich, I 972), pp. I 902 I 4. Best on The Book of One Hundred Chapters is the commentary ad edition in Gerhard Zschabitz and A. Franke (eds.), Das Buch der Hundert Kapitel und dker Vid}4?g Statuten des sogenannten oberrheinischen Revol?ltionar3 (Berlin, I9679. English

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT 2I

mention some of the least known and more dramatie merely to give an impression of the amount of work that remains to be done.

Among pre-Reformatiorl German propheeies that predieted coming purifieation and better times before the reign of Antiehrist are several that foresaw better times being brought in by a new Emperor Frederick. The "Veniet aquila" propheey, whieh cireulated in numerous Efteenth-eentury German manuseripts in Latin and German versions, reworked a thirteenth-eentury text in foretelling that a heroie "Frederiek from the East" would soon eome to rule the whole world, take the pope prisoner, aIld have eleries stoned to death.)3 Another Frederiek propheey, written on a manuscript fly-leaf around 460 and hitherto unknown, predieted that olle "F" would ttiumph after a time of great discord, preside over an age of wolldrous peace for thirty-two years, and, among other things, destroy all "vain priests".54 Similarly a third text, partially patehed together from several earlicr ones, specified that between I447 and I464 the "vainglory" of the elergy would eease, papal bulls would no longer have force, and that in I464 after various trials an emperor whose name would begin with "F" would bring great peace and abundance to the earth and reform both the clergy and the knightilood. D )

(1X0te 52 coNt.)

translations of most of the Reformatio and excerpts from the Book are provided by Gerald Strauss, Manifestations of Discontent in Germany on the Eve of the Refornzation (Bloomington, Indiana, I97I), pp. 3-3I, 233-47. On Lichtenberger, see Kurze, 3roharnes Lichtenberger.

53 Different fifteenth-century versions of "Veniet aquila" (a reworking of "Regnabit Menfridus", on which see above, note 38) are printed in Wolfgang Lazius, Fragmer7turn uaticinSi ... Methodii (Vienna, I547), Sig. LiiV- Johann Lorenz Mosheim, Versuch einer unpartheiischews und grundlichen Ketzergeschichte (Helmstedt, I746), pp. 343-4; F. von Bezold, "Zur deutschen Kaisersage", Sitzungsberichte der bayerischewl Akademie der Wissenschaften, philosophische- philologische Classe, xiv (I884), pp. 560-606, at p. 606, and Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, pp. 333-4. A fifteenth-century German translation is edited by Lauchert, ".Materialien zur Geschichte der Kaiserprophetie im Mittelalter" pp. 850-I. E. Herrmann, "Veniet aqui]a de cuius volatu delebitur leo" Festiva lanx (Festschrift 3'. Sporl) (Munich, I966), pp. 95-II7, iS, despite its title, only peripherally devoted to this prophecy and is unreliable- see instead Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I72-3, with references to the older literature. The original date of the composition of "Veniet aquila" is still uncertain.

54 Stiftsbibliothek, Admont, MS. 203, fo. Ir: "Veniet F. cum magna dis- cordia, rixa, et gwerra, et prevalebit et regnabit 32 annis. Optima pax et optima tempora erunt sub eo. Ille destruet vanos sacerdotes et omnes perversos ac perversas...." (I obtained a copy of this text through the facilities of the Hill Monastic A4anuscript Library, Collegeville, Minnesota, to the staff of which I wish to express my thanks.)

55 Herzog-August-Bibliothek, Wolfenbuttel, MS. 366 Helmstedt, fo. 27r and Bayerische Staatsbibliothek, Munich, MS. Clm 4I43, fO. 42v (both are copies from the now mutilated Munich MS. Clm 5I06): "... vana cessabit gloria cleri quia nulla bulla apostolica amplius valebit.... tandem ... pax erit in universa terra et habundantia panis et vini. Et clerus atque militia reformabitur per imperatorem cuius nomen incipit per F". Published mention of this text without knowledge of the Wolfenbuttel MS. - was made by Bezold, "Zur deutschen Kaisersage", p. 579, but the whole has still not yet been edited.

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Other contemporary prophecies that foretold the imminent coming of a great chastizing ruler omitted mention of his name. One of the better known, but still insufficiently studied, is that of the pseudo- nymous fificenth-century "Gamaleon". This predicted that a German ruler lh-ould defeat the French, become Emperor, and reform the Church by removing the papacyfrom Rome to Mainz, divesting clerics of all their possessions, and killing priests. "Gamaleon's" prophecy circulated in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries both in Latin and in a German version which emphasized that iIl the coming dispensa- tion the poverty of the clergy would be so great that "it cannot be expressed".56 A German prophecy, attributed (probably speriously) to a Franciscan "l3rother Dietrich", printed several times in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, similarly foretold that a heroic ruler would unite the world, destroy all simony in Rome, and restore righteousness.57 Another fifteenth-century German prophecy, up to now unnoticed, predicted dire events for the year I460) including "incredible" bloody struggles between spiritual and secular powers and the striking down of the pope by the hand of God, but it concluded by predicting that in I46I the imperial cities and the "Roman King') would put all things aright by destroying the great fat priests, up- rooting evil, and restoring the "good old customs", which would thereafter prevail until the coming of Antichrist.58 Yet another unpublished and hitherto unknown text, the prediction of a certain "astronomer" from Basel named Philip, foretold the coming of numerous terrible upheavals in I477 including the chastisement of the clergy and the death of the pope, whereafter a great "eagle"

56 Versions of the Latin text are published by Lazius, Op. Cit., Sig. HiiV, and Bezold, "Zur deutschen Kaisersage", pp. 604-6; one version of the German text is in A. Reifferscheid, Neun Texte zur Geschichte der religiosen Aufklarung in Deutschland zudArend des 14. und I5. 3tahrhunderts (Greifswald, I905)) pp. 47-50. Critical editions of both the Latin and the German "Gamaleons" are greatly to be desired. Recent treatments which cite the earlier literature are Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, p. 332, and Kurze, "Nationale Regungen in der spatmittelalterlichen Prophetie", p. I I. Herrmann, op. cit., is not recommended.

5 7 Some early printed editions of "Dietrich's" prophecy are listed in E. Weller Repertorium typographicum (Nordlingen, I864), pp. I88-9. An edition from one of the earliest known manuscripts (without the attribution to Dietrich) is by F. Lauchert, Op. Cit., pp. 867-70. Despite Lauchert's work, the text has been ignored by modern scholarship.

58 Herzog-August-Bibliothek, NVolfenbuttel, MS. 366 Helmstedt, fos. 62r- 63r: ".., wirt solicher jamer ersten und an heben in der welt und streit und plut s-ergiessen zwischen geistlichen und weltlichen und allen fursten das es umglaublich ist.... Der pabst wirt sich setzen wider dan (?) christenhait . . . und wirt das gemain volk verpannen, dor umb wirt yn got plagen und wirt ains schemlichen totz sterben.... Als mann wirt zelen M CCCC und lxi jar so werden dann all Reich stett in aller weIt zu samen schweren und der Romisch kunig und werden ain grossen hauffen machen und mit gewalt werden sy den grossen pfaffen vertilgen und wirt vil der slagen und ir gewalt wirt in genomen und furpasz kainer mer gegeben...." Another version of parts of this prophecy is in MS. M., fos. g8r-Ioor.

MEDIEVAL PROPHECY AND RELIGIOUS DISSENT 23

would unite the world and preside over a great "reformation".69 Such hopes and expectations did not diminish in the years closer

to the Reformation. In I496 a certain Mathis Sandauer confessed to officials in Augsburg that God had revealed to him the coming of a "reformation" throughout Christendom, the knowledge of which Sandauer was supposed to communicate to the Emperor Maximilian. 60

Concllrrently, in the same year and city, a cleric named NVolfgang Aytinger published a prophetic commentary which specified that a messianic ruler, perhaps Maximilian or his son Philip, would soon conquer the Hely Land and reform the Church.6l In this writing Aytinger excoriated the clergy for abuses such as non-residency, pluralism, misuse of tithes, and exploitation of the poor, all of which, he felt sure, made a cleansing of the Church by a coming secular hero urgent and inevitable. Aytinger's work was republished three times between I496 and z5X5, thereby entering the lists along with early printed books of similar purport such as The Reforwnation of Kaiser Sigismund.

In addition to the many texts which predicted the cleansing of the Church and the coming of a wondrous time before Antichrist, others which predicted the coming of a u7ondrous time of "reformation" after the death of Antichrist also had currency in pre-Reformation Germany. A treatise by Henry of Langenstein which circulated widely in fifteenth-century manuscripts predicted that after Anti- christ's death Jews and heathen would be converted and there would be a "reformation" in which the Church would attain perfection in faith, hope, charity, virtue, and sanctity.69 The fifteenth-century

59 Universitatsbibliothek, Basel, MS. D. IV. IO, fos. I64r-I65r: ". . . Als denn wurd zerstorung des hochsten stadts, und sunderlich der geystlich stadt wird grosslich gesmeht.... Darnoch ... so durch flugt der adler die welt, und zerrisset vil . . . regierende alleding noch sinem gevallen und behelt dz mittel der Nzelt mit siner macht, und bring wider alle ding mit zierlikeit und reformiert die in wirde und ere des geystes der vvorheit und gerechtikeit...."

60 Rolf Kiessling, Burgerliche Gesellschaft und Kirche ln Augsburg im Spatmittelalter (Augsburg, I97I)) p. 3I6.

61 Wolfgang Aytinger, Tractatus de revelatione beati Methodi (Augsburg, I496). On Aytinger, see further F. Zoepfl, "%rolfgang Aytinger ein deut- scher Zeit- und Gesinnungsgenosse Savonarolas", Zeitschrift fur deutsche Geistesgeschichte, i (I935)) pp. I77-87.

62 Passage from Henry of Langenstein, Tractatus contra quendam eremitam le ultimis temporibus, quoted by Reeves, Influence of Prophecy, p. 427. In addition to the seven copies of this tract listed by Ludwig von Pastor, Geschichte der Papste seit dem Ausgang des Mittelalters, gth edn., I6 vols. (Freiburg im Breisgau, I926), i, p. I62 (all of which appear to be German) and the two listed by Thorndike, A History of Magic and Experimental Science, iii, p. 749 (neither of which are German), I know of the following six copies (all German): Staats- bib]iothek, Bamberg, MS. Q. III. I9 (theol. 5I)) fos. I69V-I84V; Stadsbibliotheket, Goteborg, MS. 3I) fos. 37r sos (provenance: Danzig); Stiftsbibliothek, Klosterneuburg (Austria), MS. 556, fos. 2g4v 307V; Wurttembergische Landes- bibliothek, Stuttgart, MS. theol. 2? 87, fos. 6Sr-8IV; Herzog-August-Bibliothek, Wolfenbuttel, MS. 42.2 Aug. fol., fos. I64V-I86r, and MS. 76.r4 Aug. fol., fos . I I 2r- I 43' .

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German Mirabile opusculum de tine mundi dilated on the sins of the cIergy and predicted that the time of an "Antichristus mixtus" would soon come, whereafter the corrupt Church would be b1^ought to ruin and a great pope, dressed in white linen, would reign until the End together with a purified clergy which would serve God without holding benefices.63 To stop with an author whose work was particularly popular, Johannes Lichtenberger drank from so many sources that his Pronosticatio of I488 (often reprinted) mixed predictions of better times before Antichrist with predictions of better times after; but throughout Lichtenberger repeated his assurances that there would be imminent "renovatio", "restauratio", or ''reformGtio) for the Church. 64

Prophecies, of coursen did not create Luther or the doctrine of solifidianism, but German receptivity for sweeping religious change may have been heightened by the circulation of numerous texts that expressed dissatisfaction with the government of t-he Church and certainty of imminent ecclesiastical renovation. To this degree it may be that we have here an example of how popular prophecies helped to bring about some of the very events they predicted. The nineteenth-century historian von Bezold was exaggerating when he called The Reformatiorl of Kaiser Sigismund the "trumpet of the Peasants' War",65 but maybe numerous chiliastic prophecies were the ground bass of the Reformation. Northzvestern University, Eznanston Robert E. Lerer

63 Pseudo-Vincent Ferrer, Mirabile opusculus7z de fine mandi (Nurnberg, I48I), Sig. bvr-bvir. Sigismund Brettle, San Vicente Ferrer und sein literarischer Nachlass (Vorreformationsgeschichtliche Forschungen, x. Munster, I924), pp. I57-62, proves that this work was not written by Vincent Perrer: it seems to have been written in Germany around the middle of the fifteenth century.

64 A resume of Lichtenberger's work is in Kurze, ffohamles LicAtenberger, pp. I5-38; Kurze lists the numerous editions of the Pronosticatio (Strassburg, I488) on pp. 8I-7. Pre-Reformation printed illustrations of coming chastise- ment for the Church are reproduced in A. G. Dickens, Reformation and Society in Sixteenth-Century Europe (London, I966), pp. IO-II; see also the illustrations in Adolf Waas, Die Bauern izn Kampf um Gerechtigheit I300 bis I525 (Munich, [1964])

65 F. von Bezold, "Die 'armen Leute' und die deutsche Literatur des spateren Mittelalters", Historische Zeitschrift, xli (I879), pp. I-37, at p. 26, repr. in his Aus Mittelalter und Renaissance, pp. 49-8I, at p. 72.