Medical Professional Liability Outlook and Economic Impacts of the Changing Healthcare Environment Willis Re Annual Healthcare Reinsurance Forum Scottsdale, AZ March 18, 2014 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected]
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Medical Professional Liability Outlook and Economic Impacts of the Changing Healthcare Environment
Medical Professional Liability Outlook and Economic Impacts of the Changing Healthcare Environment. Willis Re Annual Healthcare Reinsurance Forum Scottsdale, AZ March 18, 2014 Download at www.iii.org/presentations. Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Medical Professional Liability Outlook and Economic Impacts
of the Changing Healthcare Environment
Willis Re Annual Healthcare Reinsurance ForumScottsdale, AZMarch 18, 2014
Download at www.iii.org/presentationsRobert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist
Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org
2
Presentation Outline
The US Healthcare System & the Economy
Employment/Professional Trends in Healthcare
Medical Professional Liability: Performance Overview & Outlook
U.S. health care expenditures have been on a relentless climb for most of the past half century, far outstripping population growth,
inflation of GDP growth
3
From 1965 through 2013, US health care expenditures had
increased by 69 fold. Population growth over the same period increased by a factor of just 1.6. By 2022, health spending will have
increased 119 fold.
$ Billions
Sources: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary at http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html accessed 3/14/14; Insurance Information Institute.
National Health Care Expenditures as a Share of GDP, 1965 – 2022F*
Sources: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary at http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html accessed 3/14/14; Insurance Information Institute.
1965 5.8%
Health care expenditures as a share of GDP rose from 5.8% in 1965 to 18.0% in 2013 and are expected to
Medical Cost Inflation vs. Overall CPI, 1995 - 2013
Sources: Med CPI from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, WC med severity from NCCI based on NCCI states.
Average Annual Growth AverageHealthcare: 3.8%
Total Nonfarm: 2.4%
Though moderating, medical inflation will continue to exceed inflation in the overall economy
6
63.1%650.7%
2235.9%
6839.8%
0%
1000%
2000%
3000%
4000%
5000%
6000%
7000%
8000%
Population CPI GDP Health CareExpenditures
Rate of Health Care Expenditure Increase Compared to Population, CPI and GDP
Accelerating business investment will be a potent driver of
commercial property and liability insurance exposures and should drive employment and WC payroll
exposures as well (with a lag)
Source: Insurance Information Institute research.
1965: 194.3 Mill2013: 317.0 Mill
1965: $719.1 Bill2013: $16,797.5 Bill
1965: $42.0 Bill2013: $2,914.7 Bill
Employment Trends in the Healthcare Industry
7
Employment Will Grow but Skills, Responsibilities and Risks Will
Evolve
7
8
Growth in Health Professions,1991-2013
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Insurance Information Institute.
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Health care
Total nonfarm
(Percent Annual Change)
Healthcare employment has continued to grow in good times and bad - including the Great Recession.
Average Annual Growth AverageHealthcare: 2.5%
Total Nonfarm: 1.0%
The U.S. economy lost more than 8 million jobs during the Great Recession, but health sector
employment expanded
Healthcare SupportHealthcare Practitioners
ConstructionPersonal Care and Service
Computer and MathSocial Service
Business & FinancialGroundskeeping/Janitorial
EducationAll Occupations
LegalLife, Phys and Social Science
RepairFood Preparation
TransportationFire, Police, Etc.
Architects and EngineersSales
ManagementArts and Media
Administrative SupportProduction
Farming
28.121.521.4
20.918
17.212.512.5
11.110.810.7
10.19.69.4
8.67.9
7.37.37.276.8
0.8-3.4
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Insurance Information Institute.
Occupations Ranked by Projected Percentage Growth, 2012-2022F
9
Healthcare professions are expected to grow at 2 to
nearly 3 times employment growth overall
10
Growth in Healthcare Profession by Skill Level, 2012 – 2022F
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Insurance Information Institute.
5,00
5
2,89
3
2,49
2
1,77
1
6,02
0
3,59
0
3,24
2
2,19
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Practitioners, includingRNs
Technicians, includingLPNs
Aides Other
2012 2022
(Thousands of Jobs)
+1.015 Mill +20.3%
+697,000 +24.1% +750,000
+30.1% +425,000 +24.0%
Projected Physician Supply and Demand, 2008–2020
Source: American Association of Medical Colleges https://www.aamc.org/advocacy/campaigns_and_coalitions/fixdocshortage/; Insurance Information Institute. 12
851,300
759,800
A potential large and growing shortage of physicians
looms. Estimates suggest a shortage of 91,500 physicians
Source: American Association of Medical Colleges https://www.aamc.org/advocacy/campaigns_and_coalitions/fixdocshortage/; Insurance Information Institute. 13
A potential large and growing physician gap looms over the next decade, with potential negative impacts on MPL
12 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed
Export-Oriented Industries
Health Sciences
Health Care
Energy (Traditional)
Alternative Energy
Petrochemical
Agriculture
Natural Resources
Technology (incl. Biotechnology)
Light Manufacturing
Insourced Manufacturing
Many industries are
poised for growth, though
insurers’ ability to
capitalize on these
industries varies widely
Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking, Pipelines)
Medical Professional Liability
15
Performance Overview
15
16
Medical Professional Liability:4 Major Challenges Increasing Competition
Price (rate) competition is intensifying Physicians: More employed by hospitals, large inst. hurts exposure Self-insurance by hospitals adds to downward pressure
Falling Investment Income Despite Fed “tapering,” rates remain low More complete “normalization” will not occur until 2015
Rising Number of Self-Insured Exposures Hospitals increasingly self-insure More use of captives
Legal & Legislative Reform Tort reform law changes (caps) Affordable Care Act (“ObamaCare”) Impacts on practice of defensive medicine
Other: Reserves, Loss Frequency & Severity Trends
17
Medical Errors: Rate of Lethal and Serious Adverse Events
Source: “A New, Evidence-Based Estimate of Patient Harms Associated with Hospital Care, Journal of Patient Safety, Volume 9, Issue 3 (Sept. 2013) by John T. James, Ph.D. accessed at: http://journals.lww.com/journalpatientsafety/Fulltext/2013/09000/A_New,_Evidence_based_Estimate_of_Patient_Harms.2.aspx
1.1% 1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
15%
15%
21%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
OIG (2008) OIG (2010) Classen, et al (2011) Landrigan, et al (2011)Lethal Events Serious Adverse Events
Error Rate New study reviewed 4
studies authored
since 2008
Sept. 2013 study in the Journal of Patient Health suggests that 210,000
– 400,000+ die each year from preventable medical errors (implies
Capital and surplus growth in the MPL shows steady growth growth mirroring the overall P/C insurance industry
MPL Statutory Capital & Surplus,2006 – 2015F
Source: Conning.
Capital is increasing even as premium growth has been
negative
+22.1% -4.6%+17.7%
+18.5% +0.2%+8.0%
+7.8%+4.6% +3.7%
24
15.1%
22.1%
-4.6%
17.7% 18.5%
0.2%
8.0%
14.2%
6.5%
-11.7%
11.8%9.3%
-1.6%
6.6%7.8%
6.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E
MPL All P/C Lines
Since 2006, MPL capital and surplus has grown at twice the pace of the p/c
insurance industry overall
Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and Conning data.
Change in MPL vs. All Lines P/C Capital & Surplus, 2006-2013E
% ChangeAverage 2006-2013EAll P/C Lines: 5.2%
MPL: 10.6%
P/C Estimated Loss Reserve Deficiency/ (Redundancy), Excl. Statutory Discount
Line of Business 2012Personal Auto Liability -$3.9BHomeowners -$0.4Other Liab (incl. Prod Liab) $7.5Workers Compensation $11.1Commercial Multi Peril $1.9Commercial Auto Liability $0.7Medical Malpractice -$3.5Reinsurance—Nonprop Assumed $1.0All Other Lines* -$4.6 Total Core Reserves $9.8Asbestos & Environmental $11.2Total P/C Industry $21.0B
Source: A.M. Best, P/C Review/Preview 2014; Insurance Information Institute. *Excluding mortgage and financial guaranty segments.
25
27
-0.8%
3.0%
8.1%
-6.2%
-2.9%-4.3%
-2.4%
1.0%
-6.8%
-3.2%
2.1%
-1.8%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F 15F
Competition and an increasing number of
self-insured exposures are weighing on MPL
premium growth
Source: Conning.
Annual Change in Medical Professional Liability DPW, 2004-2015F
% Change
28
-7.1%
-15.6%-11.8%
3.5%
-10.4%
5.9%7.9%
-3.0%
0.1%
7.1%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F 15F
Incurred losses have been generally increasing since 2011
after years of sharp declines
Source: Conning.
Annual Change in Medical Professional Liability Incurred Losses, 2004-2015F
% Change
29
8.1%
-6.2%
-2.9%-4.3%
-2.4%
1.0%
-6.8%
-1.8%
2.1%
-7.1%
-15.6%
-11.8%
3.5%
-10.4%
5.9%7.9%
0.1%
7.1%
-3.2%-3.0%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F 15F
MPL DPW Growth Change in Incurred Losses
Mid-2000s: Favorable loss
trends precipitated lower prices and falling premium
Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and Conning data.
Medical Professional Liability: Change inPremium and Incurred Losses, 2006-2015F
% Change
Today: Premium seems to be lagging an
increase in losses
30
Medical Professional Liability, RNWBy State, Average 2003-2012
35.4
24.9
22.5
21.9
20.6
20.1
19.4
19.0
19.0
18.7
18.0
17.6
17.3
17.3
17.2
17.1
16.6
16.3
16.0
16.0
15.9
15.4
15.4
15.0
14.6
0
5
10
1520
25
30
35
40
OH AL
ND TX MI
KS
NC AK
WV
NV
MS CA LA NE VA ID WA
CO IA W
I
MO
MN
OR GA
ME
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 25 States and DC
31
Medical Professional Liability RNWBy State, Average 2003-2012
13.8
13.7
13.4
13.0
12.6
12.5
12.3
12.2
12.1
11.6
11.3
11.3
11.2
11.2
11.0
10.6
10.1
5.9
5.3
3.5
3.4
-1.7
7.1
9.19.310
.0
-0.4
-4-202468
10121416
TN UT
DC AZ
FL CT
SD KY
US HI
IN MA
MT NJ
VT AR
WY
NH PA IL RI
MD
NM NY
SC DE
OK
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute
Bottom 25 States
32
Medical Professional Liability, RNWBy State, 2012
53.1
31.8
28.2
27.7
26.6
25.4
23.8
23.2
21.6
21.2
20.3
19.9
19.9
19.4
19.0
18.7
18.6
17.9
17.8
17.6
17.6
15.7
15.4
15.3
15.2
15.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
OH NV WI
OK
ND AL
MT
WV
KS
MN
MS
UT VT HI
SD CT TX MO MI
ID NE AK IL CO NC
DC
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 25 States and DC
33
Medical Professional Liability RNWBy State, 2012
14.5
14.3
13.0
12.7
12.2
11.6
11.3
11.3
11.0
10.8
10.7
10.4
10.3
10.0
8.8
8.8
7.6
-9.8
-3.6-2.0
-0.9
0.5
5.66.
27.1
-51.
4
-60
-50
-40
-30-20
-10
0
10
20
LA GA
WA
PA VA AZ
ME
US
MA NJ FL IN CA IA KY
OR SC AR
WY
NY
TN NM R
I
MD
NH DE
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute
Bottom 25 States
34
Medical Professional Liability, RNWBy State, 2003
32.4
22.8
19.2
15.5
12.9
12.0
11.3
11.1
11.1
9.7
8.8
8.1
7.3
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.5
5.7
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.4
2.0
0.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
4.9
9.9
14.9
19.9
24.9
29.9
34.9
AL
MN
ND HI
MI
CA
WA
CT
WV
MA
NV LA NC UT
ME WI
TN NE
KS ID CO NJ VA N
M AZ
GA
DE
US
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 27 States and US
35
Medical Professional Liability RNWBy State, 2003
-1.4
-1.8
-2.6
-2.9
-3.1
-3.2
-4.4
-4.5
-4.5
-5.3
-5.3
-5.6
-6.0
-6.3
-7.2
-7.8
-7.8
-9.0
-11.
8
-13.
7
-29.
5
-30.
2
-51.
9
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
OR IN NH NY KY TX RI AK DC MD VT SD FL IL AR IA PA MO MT MS SC OH WY OK
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute OK -202.5
Bottom 24 States and DC
The Affordable Care Act and Medical Professional Liability
52
A Summary of Potential Impacts
52
Issue Concern Contravening Argument
Surge in People Covered by Health Insurance
• System is overwhelmed
• Doctors spend less time on patients
• Patient care adversely impacted
• Over time, people will have access to preventative care, improving the general health of the population
• People are receiving care already via suboptimal channels
• Less use of ERs
Electronic Health Records
• Digitization could create a treasure trove of data for plaintiff attorneys
• Computerization of patient data could help flag issues and improve risk management and improve patient outcomes
MPL Claim Severity• More large verdicts
will • ACA will help contain system
costs
Source: Insurance Information Institute research. 53
Potential Impacts of the ACA on Medical Professional Liability
Number of People Signed Up for Health Care Under the ACA, Oct. 1 – March 1
54
759,800
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid as of March 7, 2014: http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2014/MarketPlaceEnrollment/Mar2014/ib_2014mar_enrollment.pdf
As of March 1, 4.2 million people have signed up for coverage under the ACA
Projected Number of People with No Health Insurance, 2013—2022*
31
55
4437
30
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
2013E 2014F 2015F 2018F 2022F
Millions
The projected decline in the uninsured population is very sensitive to the enrollment rate under the Affordable Care Act
By 2018 the number of people under age 65 without
insurance is expected to drop by 25 million (~45%)
55
*Under age 65.Sources: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary at http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html accessed 3/14/14; Insurance Information Institute.
• ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.9% ROAS through 2013:Q3, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.
Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2013:Q3*
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-13 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2013 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6%2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years9 Years
2011: 4.7%
History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013:Q3 8.9%
A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: Investment Impact on ROEsCombined Ratio / ROE
* 2008 -2013 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2013:9M combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 95.8; 2012 =103.2, 2011 = 108.1, ROAS = 3.5%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO Verisk Analytics data.
Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Barclays Research (estimates).
63
Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2013:Q3
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.
($ Billions)
$487.1$496.6
$512.8$521.8
$478.5
$455.6
$437.1
$463.0
$490.8
$511.5
$540.7$530.5
$544.8$559.2 $559.1
$538.6$550.3
$567.8$583.5$586.9
$607.7$614.0$624.4
$570.7$566.5
$505.0$515.6$517.9
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
06:Q
4
07:Q
1
07:Q
2
07:Q
3
07:Q
4
08:Q
1
08:Q
2
08:Q
3
08:Q
4
09:Q
1
09:Q
2
09:Q
3
09:Q
4
10:Q
1
10:Q
2
10:Q
3
10:Q
4
11:Q
1
11:Q
2
11:Q
3
11:Q
4
12:Q
1
12:Q
2
12:Q
3
12:Q
4
13:Q
1
13:Q
2
13:Q
3
2007:Q3Pre-Crisis Peak
Surplus as of 9/30/13 stood at a record high $624.4B
2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business .
The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.78 of NPW,close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history.
Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses
The P/C insurance industry entered 2014in very strong financial condition.
Financial Strength & Underwriting
64
History Suggests that MPL, Like Other Long-Tailed Lines Is Much
Source: A.M. Best Special Report “Pace of P/C Impairments Slowed in 2012; Auto Writers, RRGs Continued to Struggle,” June 2013; Insurance Information Institute.
The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C Insurance Cycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets
65
Impairments among P/C insurers remain infrequent
66
P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2012
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
2012 impairment rate was 0.69%, down from 1.11% in 2011; the rate is lower than the 0.82% average since 1969
Impairment Rates Are Highly Correlated With Underwriting Performance and Reached Record Lows in 2007; Recent Increase Was Associated
Primarily With Mortgage and Financial Guaranty Insurers and Not Representative of the Industry Overall
67
Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2012
43.4%
12.6%
7.2%
7.1%
8.0%
6.6%
8.4%
3.5% 3.1%
Source: A.M. Best Special Report “Pace of P/C Impairments Slowed in 2012; Auto Writers, RRGs Continued to Struggle,” June 2013; Insurance Information Institute.
Historically, Deficient Loss Reserves and Inadequate Pricing AreBy Far the Leading Cause of P-C Insurer Impairments.
Investment and Catastrophe Losses Play a Much Smaller Role
Deficient Loss Reserves/Inadequate Pricing
Reinsurance Failure
Rapid GrowthAlleged Fraud
Catastrophe Losses
Affiliate Impairment
Investment Problems (Overstatement of Assets)
Misc.
Sig. Change in Business
68
Top 10 Lines of Business for US P/C Impaired Insurers, 2000–2012
19.7%
22.2%
9.2%8.8%
7.3%
8.6%
6.7%
4.8%
4.0%
8.6%
Source: A.M. Best Special Report “Pace of P/C Impairments Slowed in 2012; Auto Writers, RRGs Continued to Struggle,” June 2013; Insurance Information Institute..
Medical Professional Liability Accounts for Only About 2% of Industry DPW but 6.7% of Insurer Impairments
Workers Comp
Other
Pvt. Passenger Auto
HomeownersCommercial Multiperil
Commercial Auto Liability
Other Liability
Med Mal
Surety
Title
INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY
69
The Challenge of Low Investment Yields Is a Critical Issue for MPL
Insurers Is Relief in Sight?
69
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–2013*1
$38.9$37.1 $36.7
$38.7
$54.6
$51.2
$47.1 $47.6$49.2
$47.7$45.8
$39.6
$49.5$52.3
$30
$40
$50
$60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13*
Investment Income Fell in 2012 and is Falling in 2013 Due to Persistently Low Interest Rates, Putting Additional Pressure on (Re) Insurance Pricing
1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends..*Estimate based on annualized actual 9M:2013 investment income of $34.338B.Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
($ Billions)
Investment earnings are running below their 2007
pre-crisis peak
71
P/C Insurer Net Realized Capital Gains/Losses, 1990-2013:Q3
Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Investment Income Continued to Fall in 2013 Due to Low Interest Rates but Realized Investment Gains Were Up Sharply; The Financial Crisis
Caused Investment Gains to Fall by 50% in 20081 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.* 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B; Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
($ Billions)
Investment gains through 2013:Q3 were approximately
double those through 2012:Q3
73
-1.8
%
-1.8
%
-2.0
%
-3.6
%
-3.3
%
-3.3
%
-3.7
%
-4.3
%
-5.2
%
-5.7
%
-7.3%
-1.9
%
-2.1
%
-3.1
%
-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
Person
al Lines
Pvt Pass
Auto
Pers P
rop
Commerc
ial
Comml A
uto
Credit
Comm P
rop
Comm C
as
Fidelity
/Surety
Warra
nty
Surplus
Line
s
Med M
al
WC
Reinsu
rance
**
In order to offset a 1% decline in investment yield, an MPL insurer needs to reduce its combined ratio by
about 5.2 points to maintain the same ROE*Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums**US domestic reinsurance onlySource: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line*
MPL invested assets continue to grow despite declining profits
MPL Cash and Invested Assets,2006 – 2015F
Source: Conning.
Growth in invested assets has been strong since the
recession, mirroring the p/c insurance industry overall
75
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields:A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2014*
*Monthly, through February 2014. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade.
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes recently plunged to record modern-era lows in early 2013 but have since risen as the Fed begins “tapering” its
U.S. Treasury Security Yields:A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2014*
*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through February 2014.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade.
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
Treasury yield curve remains near its most depressed level in
at least 45 years. Investment income is falling as a result.
Even as the Fed “tapers” rates are unlikely to return to pre-crisis
levels anytime soon
The Fed Is Actively Signaling that it Is Determined to Keep Rates Low Until Unemployment Drops Below 6.5% or Until Inflation Expectations
Exceed 2.5%; Low Rates Add to Pricing Pressure for Insurers.Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Insurance Information Institute.
79
Outlook for U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Through 2015
0.761.17
1.802.30
1.802.35
3.50
4.20
1.40
0.100.090.060.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
2012 2013 2014F 2015F
3-Month 5-Year 10-Year
% Yield
Longer-tail lines like MPL and workers comp will benefit the most from the normalization of yields
Long-term yields should begin to normalize in 2014 but short-term yields will
remain very low until 2015
79Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2012-2013), Swiss Re (2014-2015); Insurance Information Institute.
81
Distribution of Bond Maturities,P/C Insurance Industry, 2003-2012
16.0%
15.2%
15.7%
16.2%
16.3%
29.8%
29.2%
28.8%
29.5%
30.0%
32.4%
36.2%
39.5%
41.4%
40.4%
31.3%
32.5%
34.1%
34.1%
33.8%
31.2%
28.7%
26.7%
26.8%
27.6%
15.4%
15.4%
13.6%
13.1%
12.9%
12.7%
11.7%
11.1%
10.3%
9.8%
9.2%
7.6%
7.6%
7.4%
8.1%
8.1%
7.3%
6.4%
6.3%
5.7%16.5%
15.2%
14.4%
16.0%
15.4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Under 1 year1-5 years5-10 years10-20 yearsover 20 years
Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.
The main shift over these years has been from bonds with longer maturities to bonds with shorter maturities. The industry first trimmed its holdings of over-10-year bonds
(from 24.6% in 2003 to 15.5% in 2012) and then trimmed bonds in the 5-10-year category (from 31.3% in 2003 to 27.6% in 2012) . Falling average maturity of the P/C industry’s bond portfolio is contributing to a drop in investment income along with lower yields.
Bonds Rated NAIC Quality Category 3-6 as a Percent of Total Bonds, 2003–2012
2.69%
2.10% 2.17%1.98%
3.07% 3.10%
4.07%
2.04%2.27%
2.58%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
There are many ways to capture higher yields on bond portfolios.One is to accept greater risk, as measured by NAIC bond ratings.
The ratings range from 1 to 6, with the highest quality rated 1.Even in 2012, over 95% of the industry’s bonds were rated 1 or 2.
Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.
From 2006-07 to year-end 2012, the percentage of lower-quality
bonds in P/C industry portfolios more than doubled
Shifting Legal Liability & Tort Environment
83
Is the Tort PendulumSwinging Against Insurers?
83
84
Over the Last Three Decades, Total Tort Costs as a % of GDP Appear Somewhat Cyclical, 1980-2013E
Data Breaches 2005-2013, by Number of Breaches and Records Exposed# Data Breaches/Millions of Records Exposed
* 2013 figures as of Jan. 1, 2014 from the ITRC updated to an additional 30 million records breached (Target) as disclosed in Jan. 2014.Source: Identity Theft Resource Center.
* Other costs include direct and indirect costs that could not be allocated to a main external cost categorySource: 2012 Cost of Cyber Crime: United States, Ponemon Institute.
Information loss (44%) and business disruption or lost productivity (30%) account for the majority of external costs due to cyber crime.
Information loss
Equipment damagesOther costs*
Revenue loss
Business disruption
Information loss is the major concern,
business interruption could
cause serious issues for health
institutions as well
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