Media Outreach

Public Outreach DayMay 6, 2004

Public Outreach DayMay 6, 2004

National Weather ServiceGrand Junction, ColoradoNational Weather ServiceGrand Junction, Colorado

ObjectivesObjectives

• Who we are and what we do

• Describe the various programs of the NWS

• A brief outline of what weather products are produced for these programs

• Give you an idea of what information is out there for you to use

• Who we are and what we do

• Describe the various programs of the NWS

• A brief outline of what weather products are produced for these programs

• Give you an idea of what information is out there for you to use

NWS Offices Across the NationNWS Offices Across the Nation

NWS HistoryNWS History

• Congress organized the first “Weather Bureau” in 1870.

• In 1970, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was created.

• The Weather Bureau was then placed under NOAA, and had its name changed to the “National Weather Service”.

• Congress organized the first “Weather Bureau” in 1870.

• In 1970, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was created.

• The Weather Bureau was then placed under NOAA, and had its name changed to the “National Weather Service”.

Grand Junction NWS HistoryGrand Junction NWS History

• First weather observations taken in 1892 (upstairs doctor’s office at 520 Main Street).

• First Weather Bureau office established in 1898, eventually moving into the old Grand Valley Bank Building at the corner of 4th and Main.

• First weather observations taken in 1892 (upstairs doctor’s office at 520 Main Street).

• First Weather Bureau office established in 1898, eventually moving into the old Grand Valley Bank Building at the corner of 4th and Main.

Grand Junction NWS HistoryGrand Junction NWS History

• The Weather Bureau office moved to the Federal Building at 4th and Rood in 1918.

• It remained there until 1946, the longest existence for a weather office in the same building in Grand Junction’s history.

• The Weather Bureau office moved to the Federal Building at 4th and Rood in 1918.

• It remained there until 1946, the longest existence for a weather office in the same building in Grand Junction’s history.

CurrentlyCurrently

• The NWS moved to its current location in 1995.

• The office consists of a staff of 25 meteorologists, hydrologists, technicians, and support personnel.

• The NWS moved to its current location in 1995.

• The office consists of a staff of 25 meteorologists, hydrologists, technicians, and support personnel.

NWS Grand JunctionArea of Responsibility

NWS Grand JunctionArea of Responsibility

• Area defined by Doppler Radar coverage

• 18 counties in western Colorado & 4 in eastern Utah

• Covers 50,407 square miles

• Area defined by Doppler Radar coverage

• 18 counties in western Colorado & 4 in eastern Utah

• Covers 50,407 square miles

Major ProgramsMajor Programs

• Public Weather Forecasts

• Severe Weather Watches and Warnings

• Hydrology

• Winter Weather

• Non-Precipitation Events

• Fire Weather

• Climatology

• NOAA Weather Radio (NWR)

• Public Weather Forecasts

• Severe Weather Watches and Warnings

• Hydrology

• Winter Weather

• Non-Precipitation Events

• Fire Weather

• Climatology

• NOAA Weather Radio (NWR)

Public Zone ForecastsPublic Zone Forecasts

• The forecast area is divided into zones that have similar climatic and geographic similarities

• Forecast parameters include:

– sky condition

– wind (first 48 hours)

– precipitation and/or obscurations

– maximum / minimum temperature

– snowfall amounts

• Forecasts extend out to 7 days

• The forecast area is divided into zones that have similar climatic and geographic similarities

• Forecast parameters include:

– sky condition

– wind (first 48 hours)

– precipitation and/or obscurations

– maximum / minimum temperature

– snowfall amounts

• Forecasts extend out to 7 days

NWS Grand Junction ZonesNWS Grand Junction Zones

Other ForecastsOther Forecasts

• Short Term Forecasts (“nowcasts”)

– Issued as needed during rapidly changing weather conditions

– Enhances the zone forecast to describe a specific weather event expected over the next hour or two

• Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

– Provides forecast reasoning for the upcoming forecast

– Describes the current synoptic situation, model strengths and weaknesses in handling the forecast, and the forecaster’s thoughts on the situation

– Issued around 3:00 pm and 4:00 am daily

– A brief AFD will be issued if the forecast is a non-routine update, discussing the reason for the update.

• Short Term Forecasts (“nowcasts”)

– Issued as needed during rapidly changing weather conditions

– Enhances the zone forecast to describe a specific weather event expected over the next hour or two

• Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

– Provides forecast reasoning for the upcoming forecast

– Describes the current synoptic situation, model strengths and weaknesses in handling the forecast, and the forecaster’s thoughts on the situation

– Issued around 3:00 pm and 4:00 am daily

– A brief AFD will be issued if the forecast is a non-routine update, discussing the reason for the update.

Other ForecastsOther Forecasts

• Each morning, NWS Grand Junction will issue a “Hazardous Weather Outlook”.

• This products offers a “heads-up” on what kind of adverse weather can be expected during the next 7 days.

• Biggest focus is on the next 24 hours.

• May be updated later in the day, if conditions change.

• Each morning, NWS Grand Junction will issue a “Hazardous Weather Outlook”.

• This products offers a “heads-up” on what kind of adverse weather can be expected during the next 7 days.

• Biggest focus is on the next 24 hours.

• May be updated later in the day, if conditions change.

Click on any area on the map for a forecast

This will be at the bottom of the forecast page

Website

Digital ForecastsDigital Forecasts

Digital ForecastsDigital Forecasts

Sky ConditionSky Condition

Sky Condition Cloud Coverage

Cloudy 9/10 – 10/10

Mostly Cloudy orConsiderable Cloudiness

7/10 – 8/10

Partly CloudyPartly Sunny

3/10 – 6/10

Mostly ClearMostly Sunny

1/10 – 3/10

ClearSunny

Less than 1/10

WindWind

Sustained Wind Speed Descriptive Term

0 – 5 mph Light, or Light and Variable

5 – 15 mph10 – 20 mph

None

15 – 25 mph Breezy

20 – 30 mph Windy

30 – 40 mph Very Windy

40 mph or greater Strong, dangerous, or damaging

Probability of Precipitation (PoP)Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

PoP Percent Expression of Uncertainty

Areal Equivalent

10 % Slight Chance Isolated or Few

20% Slight Chance Isolated

30% to 50% Chance Scattered

60% to 70% Likely Numerous

80% to 100% None Used None Used

Severe WeatherSevere Weather

• WATCH

• Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the Watch Area

• Watches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, and Floods

• WARNING

• A severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned area

• Warnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and Floods

• WATCH

• Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the Watch Area

• Watches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, and Floods

• WARNING

• A severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned area

• Warnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and Floods

Definitions and Terminology


• Severe Thunderstorm

– Winds > knots (58 mph)

– Hail > ¾ inch

– Tornadic Activity

• Severe Thunderstorm

– Winds > knots (58 mph)

– Hail > ¾ inch

– Tornadic Activity


• Watches / Warnings

– Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm

• Statements

– Severe Weather Statement

• Additional / updated information on an ongoing warning

• Used to cancel a warning

• Used to extend an existing warning

• Watches / Warnings

– Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm

• Statements

– Severe Weather Statement

• Additional / updated information on an ongoing warning

• Used to cancel a warning

• Used to extend an existing warning


• Local Storm Report

– Issued after a severe weather event

– Documents reports of severe weather and weather-related damage

– Provides time, location, and type of severe weather and extent of damage

– May be issued well after the storm, depending on when the reports are received

• Local Storm Report

– Issued after a severe weather event

– Documents reports of severe weather and weather-related damage

– Provides time, location, and type of severe weather and extent of damage

– May be issued well after the storm, depending on when the reports are received

NWS Grand Junction WebsiteNWS Grand Junction Website

Any Watches, Warnings, or

Advisories will be color-coded

Just click on the county or zone to get the product

NWS Grand Junction WebsiteNWS Grand Junction Website

All text versions of Watches, Warnings, or

Advisories will be posted here

NWS Grand Junction Website“Local Warnings” Link

NWS Grand Junction Website“Local Warnings” Link

HydrologyHydrology

– Inundation of a normally dry area caused by an increased water level in an established watercourse

– In the west, usually caused by mountain snowmelt, a warm rain-on-snow event, or large reservoir releases

– Watches will usually be issued when rivers approach bankfull; Warnings will be issued when river levels are expected to exceed established flood stages

– Inundation of a normally dry area caused by an increased water level in an established watercourse

– In the west, usually caused by mountain snowmelt, a warm rain-on-snow event, or large reservoir releases

– Watches will usually be issued when rivers approach bankfull; Warnings will be issued when river levels are expected to exceed established flood stages

• Flood (Flood Watch / Flood Warning)

HydrologyHydrology

– A life-threatening flood caused by heavy rain over a short time, usually less than 6 hours

– Flash flooding usually occurs in small streams, or dry washes and canyons

– Most flash floods here occur during the monsoon season, typically on the 2nd or 3rd day of thunderstorms with heavy rain

– Dam Breaks

– A life-threatening flood caused by heavy rain over a short time, usually less than 6 hours

– Flash flooding usually occurs in small streams, or dry washes and canyons

– Most flash floods here occur during the monsoon season, typically on the 2nd or 3rd day of thunderstorms with heavy rain

– Dam Breaks

• Flash Flood (Flash Flood Watch / Warning)

HydrologyHydrology

• Flood / Flash Flood Statement

– Statements are issued for both floods and flash floods

– Conveys latest information on the event

– May remove portions of the warning area, if that area is no longer susceptible to flooding

– Terminates the watch or warning

• Flood / Flash Flood Statement

– Statements are issued for both floods and flash floods

– Conveys latest information on the event

– May remove portions of the warning area, if that area is no longer susceptible to flooding

– Terminates the watch or warning

HydrologyHydrology

• Urban and/or Small Stream Flood Advisory

– Flooding of small streams, streets, or low-lying areas (such as underpasses, parking lots, etc)

– Flooding is not considered life-threatening, mostly just a nuisance or inconvenience

– No significant damage to property is expected

• Urban and/or Small Stream Flood Advisory

– Flooding of small streams, streets, or low-lying areas (such as underpasses, parking lots, etc)

– Flooding is not considered life-threatening, mostly just a nuisance or inconvenience

– No significant damage to property is expected

BREAKBREAK

Winter WeatherWinter Weather

• Of major importance to the public in western Colorado and eastern Utah is the timing and impact of winter weather phenomena.

• Of major importance to the public in western Colorado and eastern Utah is the timing and impact of winter weather phenomena.


• Winter Storm Watch

• Winter Storm Warning

• Blizzard Warning

• Heavy Snow Warning

• Winter Weather Advisory

• Winter Storm Watch



• Heavy Snow Warning




– Snow and/or blowing snow reducing the visibility to < ¼ mile with sustained winds of 35 mph for 3 hours or more.


– More than one winter phenomena is expected (i.e. heavy snow, high winds, etc).


– Snow and/or blowing snow reducing the visibility to < ¼ mile with sustained winds of 35 mph for 3 hours or more.


– More than one winter phenomena is expected (i.e. heavy snow, high winds, etc).


• Heavy Snow Warning:

– Mountain Zones (> 7500’): > 12” per snow event

– Valley Zones (< 7500’): > 6” per snow event


– Mountain Zones: 5-11” per snow event

– Valley Zones: 3-5”per snow event

• Heavy Snow Warning:

– Mountain Zones (> 7500’): > 12” per snow event

– Valley Zones (< 7500’): > 6” per snow event


– Mountain Zones: 5-11” per snow event

– Valley Zones: 3-5”per snow event

Non-Precipitation EventsNon-Precipitation Events

• Non-precipitation events such as high wind, fog, heat, and freezing rain can also pose a threat to public safety.

• Non-precipitation events such as high wind, fog, heat, and freezing rain can also pose a threat to public safety.

High WindsHigh Winds

• High Wind Warning

– Mountains: sustained > 50 mph, gusts > 75 mph

– Valleys: sustained > 40 mph, gusts > 58 mph

• Wind Advisory

– Mountains: sustained 40-49 mph, gusts 58-74 mph

– Valleys: sustained 30-39 mph, gusts 45-57 mph

• High Wind Warning

– Mountains: sustained > 50 mph, gusts > 75 mph

– Valleys: sustained > 40 mph, gusts > 58 mph

• Wind Advisory

– Mountains: sustained 40-49 mph, gusts 58-74 mph

– Valleys: sustained 30-39 mph, gusts 45-57 mph

Cold TemperaturesCold Temperatures

• Freeze Warning

– Temperatures < 32° at the beginning or end of the growing season

• Freeze Warning

– Temperatures < 32° at the beginning or end of the growing season

Cold TemperaturesCold Temperatures

• Wind Chill Warning

– Mountains: < -35° and winds > 10 mph

– Valleys: < -25° and winds > 10 mph

• Wind Chill Advisory

– Valleys (only): -18° to -24° and winds > 10 mph

• Wind Chill Warning

– Mountains: < -35° and winds > 10 mph

– Valleys: < -25° and winds > 10 mph

• Wind Chill Advisory

– Valleys (only): -18° to -24° and winds > 10 mph

Wind ChillWind Chill

• The measure of the rate of heat loss based on air temperature and wind speed.

• Only valid for exposed human skin (no bearing on animals or inanimate objects).

• Formula was altered in 2002, based on updated meteorological and physiological knowledge.

• The measure of the rate of heat loss based on air temperature and wind speed.

• Only valid for exposed human skin (no bearing on animals or inanimate objects).

• Formula was altered in 2002, based on updated meteorological and physiological knowledge.

Wind ChillWind Chill

Click here for wind chill chart and information

Other Non-Precipitation EventsOther Non-Precipitation Events

• Dust Storm Warning

– Widespread visibility of < ¼ mile with sustained winds > 25 mph.

• Blowing Dust Advisory

– Widespread visibility of < 1 mile with sustained winds > 25 mph.

• Dust Storm Warning

– Widespread visibility of < ¼ mile with sustained winds > 25 mph.

• Blowing Dust Advisory

– Widespread visibility of < 1 mile with sustained winds > 25 mph.


• Heat Index" (HI): sometimes referred to as the "apparent temperature".

• The HI, given in degrees Fahrenheit, is a measure of how hot it really feels when the relative humidity is added to the actual air temperature (body’s effectiveness in sweating is reduced).

• Extreme Heat Warning – HI will exceed 120° for 3 or more hours.

• Heat Index" (HI): sometimes referred to as the "apparent temperature".

• The HI, given in degrees Fahrenheit, is a measure of how hot it really feels when the relative humidity is added to the actual air temperature (body’s effectiveness in sweating is reduced).

• Extreme Heat Warning – HI will exceed 120° for 3 or more hours.

Heat IndexHeat Index

Click here for heat index chart and information

Ultraviolet (UV) IndexUltraviolet (UV) Index

• Although the Grand Junction office does not send out warnings for high UV numbers, the forecast is available on the “Local Climate” section of our website.

• Although the Grand Junction office does not send out warnings for high UV numbers, the forecast is available on the “Local Climate” section of our website.


• Dense Fog or Smoke Advisory

– Visibility is reduced to < 1/4 mile over a significant area.

• Dense Fog or Smoke Advisory

– Visibility is reduced to < 1/4 mile over a significant area.

Fire Weather ProgramFire Weather Program

• NWS Grand Junction provides user-oriented fire weather forecasting service tailored for use by federal, state, and county land management organizations.

• General fire weather forecasts and smoke management forecasts are routinely issued each day from April 1 to October 31.

• NWS Grand Junction provides user-oriented fire weather forecasting service tailored for use by federal, state, and county land management organizations.

• General fire weather forecasts and smoke management forecasts are routinely issued each day from April 1 to October 31.

Fire Weather ProgramFire Weather Program

• Spot weather forecasts (fire-specific forecasts)

• Fire Weather Watches

• Red Flag Warnings

• Spot weather forecasts (fire-specific forecasts)

• Fire Weather Watches

• Red Flag Warnings

Red Flag CriteriaRed Flag Criteria

• Any combination of the following:

– Thunderstorms producing “dry lightning”

– Strong and erratic winds

– First occurrence of lightning after a hot and dry period

– Low fuel humidity

– Low atmospheric relative humidity

– Expected passage of a cold front

• Any combination of the following:

– Thunderstorms producing “dry lightning”

– Strong and erratic winds

– First occurrence of lightning after a hot and dry period

– Low fuel humidity

– Low atmospheric relative humidity

– Expected passage of a cold front

http://spot.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=gjt

NWS Grand Junction Website“Fire Weather” Link

NWS Grand Junction Website“Fire Weather” Link

Clickable Zone MapOther Fire Weather Forecasts

General Climate InformationGeneral Climate Information

• Grand Junction’s detailed climate summary is published each morning.

• Grand Junction’s detailed climate summary is published each morning.


• Daily temperature and precipitation is also available for a number of ASOS, cooperative observer, and spotter stations.

• Daily temperature and precipitation is also available for a number of ASOS, cooperative observer, and spotter stations.


• Each day, a daily record of each day’s weather information is made available (a Form F-6, or Local Climatological Data (LCD)).

• This information is available for 10 sites in western Colorado and eastern Utah.

• Each day, a daily record of each day’s weather information is made available (a Form F-6, or Local Climatological Data (LCD)).

• This information is available for 10 sites in western Colorado and eastern Utah.

Daily F-6/LCD ReportDaily F-6/LCD Report

NOAA Weather RadioNOAA Weather Radio

• Began in the 1970s

• 24/7 weather coverage

• Range of about 40 miles, depending on terrain

• Tone alert feature will automatically turn the radio on when warnings have been issued

• SAME

• Began in the 1970s

• 24/7 weather coverage

• Range of about 40 miles, depending on terrain

• Tone alert feature will automatically turn the radio on when warnings have been issued

• SAME


• NWS Grand Junction maintains 6 NWR stations.

• Grand Junction, Glenwood Springs, Montrose, Durango, Vernal, Moab.

• NWR Stations in Steamboat Springs and Monticello, UT are in the planning stage.

• NWS Grand Junction maintains 6 NWR stations.

• Grand Junction, Glenwood Springs, Montrose, Durango, Vernal, Moab.

• NWR Stations in Steamboat Springs and Monticello, UT are in the planning stage.


• The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) has also made NWR through various AM/FM repeaters:

• The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) has also made NWR through various AM/FM repeaters:

NWS Grand JunctionNWS Grand Junction

• 24 hour phone number: 256-9463

• Toll-free number: 1-800-868-7964

• Weather Recording: 243-0913

• Website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gjt

• 24 hour phone number: 256-9463

• Toll-free number: 1-800-868-7964

• Weather Recording: 243-0913

• Website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gjt

Thank You for Your Attendance!Thank You for Your Attendance!

National Weather ServiceGrand Junction, ColoradoNational Weather ServiceGrand Junction, Colorado

Media Outreach

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