Measuring VET participation by SES over time Tom Karmel and Patrick Lim CEET conference, 1 November 2013.

Measuring VET participation by SES over time

Tom Karmel and Patrick LimCEET conference, 1 November 2013

SEIFA

• Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD)

• Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD)

• Index of education and occupation (IEO)• Index of economic resources (IER)

  Population (POA)

Population (SLA)

Quintile 2006 2011 2006 2011

1 15.0 16.0 13.2 16.0

2 17.6 17.7 21.8 20.6

3 20.4 19.7 20.4 20.1

4 21.4 21.5 22.9 23.9

5 25.7 25.1 21.7 19.5Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Quintiles aint quintiles

 15 to 19 Year

Olds20 to 24 Year

Olds

Quintile2006 POA

2006 SLA

2006 POA

2006 SLA

1 14.9 13.3 14.5 12.8

2 17.5 21.5 15.8 20.0

3 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.1

4 21.3 22.9 22.1 24.1

5 25.8 22.0 26.7 22.6

And even worse for particular age groups

  2006 using 2006 Quintiles (SLA)

Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.4Certificate IV 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3Certificate III 7.9 9.5 9.5 8.7 6.5

Certificate II 10.4 10.6 9.3 6.9 5.4

Certificate I 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.1

Non-AQF 4.8 4.5 3.2 2.9 2.8

Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Total 29.9 31.0 28.3 24.1 19.5

VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2006

  2011 using 2011 quintiles (SLA)Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0Certificate IV 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9Certificate III 13.4 15.2 14.3 13.1 8.4Certificate II 14.0 14.6 11.6 8.3 5.7

Certificate I 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.1

Non-AQF 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2

Total 37.3 39.5 35.2 29.8 20.9

VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2011

  2006 using 2006 Quintiles

Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9

Certificate IV 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7

Certificate III 7.2 7.9 7.0 6.8 5.5

Certificate II 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0

Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3

Non-AQF 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.9

Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2

Total 19.2 19.1 16.7 15.7 13.5

VET participation rates for 20-24 years, 2006

  2011 using 2011 quintiles

Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.0

Certificate IV 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9

Certificate III 10.5 11.1 9.2 8.5 6.5

Certificate II 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.1

Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2

Non-AQF 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3

Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2

Total 24.4 24.6 20.1 18.9 15.1

VET participation for 20-24 years, 2011

2011 Quintiles

2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total

1 81 15 3 1 0 0 100

2 16 63 18 2 1 0 100

3 2 19 64 14 0 0 100

4 1 3 14 73 9 0 100

5 0 0 1 11 88 0 100

Unknown 13 0 0 4 17 67 100

2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD) by POA

2011 Quintiles2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total

1 88 11 0 0 1 1 100

2 15 74 11 0 0 0 100

3 0 18 69 12 0 0 100

4 0 0 16 75 7 2 100

5 0 0 1 10 88 1 100

Unknown 9 0 6 0 0 86 100

2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD), by SLA

Apparent and actual educational participation rates in a hypotheticalexample.

Quintile

2006 collection using 2006

2011 collection using 2006 quintiles

2011 collection using 2011 quintiles

1 40.5 44.9 42.1

2 45.3 48.5 44.4

3 32.4 36.6 36.2

4 24.2 25.2 27.4

5 19.6 19.4 21.3Total 15 to 19 year olds 30.7 33.0 33.0

15-19 year old VET participation rates, 2006 and 2011, POA

Quintile

Actual change 2006

- 2011

Estimated change 2006 – 2011 using

2006 quintiles

Difference between

actual change and

estimated change

% of actual change 2006

- 2011

1 1.7 4.5 -2.8 -169.1

2 -0.9 3.2 -4.1 458.3

3 3.8 4.2 -0.4 -10.9

4 3.2 1.0 2.2 68.1

5 1.7 -0.2 1.9 110.6Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.3 2.3 -0.1 -2.4

15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, POA

Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, 2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), POA (percentage points)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Actual changeApparent change

Quintile

Actual Change 2006 - 2011

Estimated change 2006 - 2011 using the 2006

Difference between actual and estimated change

% of actual change 2006 - 2011

1 7.4 9.0 1.6 21.4

2 8.5 10.0 1.5 17.9

3 6.9 8.4 1.6 22.94 5.6 6.5 0.8 14.4

5 1.4 4.0 2.6 182.5Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.2 2.6 0.4 19.8

15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, SLA

Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 15-19 years, by SES quintile, 2011

1 2 3 4 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

ApparentActual

Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 20-24 years, by SES quintile, 2011

1 2 3 4 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

ApparentActual

Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 24-64 years, by SES quintile, 2011

1 2 3 4 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

ApparentActual

Actual and apparent changes in VETparticipation for age by SES quintiles,2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), SLA (percentage points)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Actual changeApparent change

More work to be done

• Same exercise for higher education• Figure out how to analyse accuracy of

estimates at qualification level

Summary

• Quintiles ain’t quintiles.• Important to calculate participation rates

rather than use 20% as a reference.• Equity issue in VET not obvious.• In respect of SEIFA, level of regional

classification matters.• SEIFA at SLA level seems ok, but need to test

methodology every census.