MEASURING THE EFFECT OF NEIGHBORHOOD ON HUMAN BEHAVIORS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES George Galster Hilberry Professor of Urban Affairs Wayne State University.

MEASURING THE EFFECT OF NEIGHBORHOOD ON HUMAN BEHAVIORS:

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

George GalsterHilberry Professor of Urban Affairs

Wayne State UniversityDetroit, USA

[email protected]

presentation at Uppsala University Sweden

June 9, 2011

OVERVIEW: QUESTIONS ADDRESSED

• What Are the Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood on Human Behaviors?

• How Can We Overcome These Methodological Challenges?

• What Are Promising Future Directions?

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood

• Defining “Neighborhood”

• Measuring Neighborhood Characteristics

• Measuring Neighborhood Dosage

• Measuring Dosage-Response Relationship

• Selection

• Endogeneity

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of

Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood: 1

Defining “Neighborhood”:

CHALLENGES:

What is the appropriate scale?

Does appropriate scale vary by causal mechanism of neighborhood effect presumed?

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Defining

Neighborhood?

RESPONSE:

Operationalize “neighborhood” at different administrative district or “bespoke” scales; test relationships at various scales (Musterd & Andersson; Van Ham & Manley)

BUT: multiple mechanisms likelyGeorge Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood:2

Measuring Neighborhood Characteristics:

CHALLENGE:

Lack direct measures of causal mechanisms (exception: Kalter, Vidal: social capital & networks)

What we can usually measure: Highly correlated characteristics of neigh’d socioeconomic & demographic profiles

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Measuring Neighborhood Character?

RESPONSE:

factor analysis (“disadvantage index”-Jivraj; Bailey); proxy variables (“collective efficacy”-Sampson et al.

BUT: ecological factors not constant over time; proxies may be weak; measures of some mechanisms totally lacking

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood:3

Measuring Dosage of Neighborhood:

CHALLENGE: Frequency of individual’s exposureDuration of individual’s exposureIntensity of individual’s exposureConsistency of individual’s exposureTrajectory of individual’s exposure

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Measuring Neighborhood Dosage?

RESPONSE:

routine activity space analysis (Blasius and Friedrichs)

Annual measures of exposure (Musterd-Galster-Andersson)

BUT: insufficient to measure all above dimensions of dosage

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood:4

Measuring Neighborhood Dosage-Response Relationship:

CHALLENGE: Threshold / Non-Linear relationship?Timing of relationship? ( Lag? Cumulative?)Durability? (effects persistent or decay over time?)Generality? (many responses? Only one?)Universality? (across people & developmental stages?)Interactions / Antidotes? (with extra- neigh’d treatments?)Buffers? (Family/ community responses?)

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Measuring Neigh’d Dosage-Response?

RESPONSE:

non-linear modeling (many authors)

experiments with lags & cumulative exposures (Sampson & Raudenbush; Galster, Andersson, & Musterd)

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood: 5

Selection: CHALLENGE:

Behaviorit = a + b[Observedit] +c[Unobservedit] + d[Neighborh’dit] + e

[Neighborhood]Unobserved

Behavior

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Selection?

RESPONSE 1: Econometric adjustments to non-experimental panel datasets:

• Modeling Selection Explicitly

• Differencing

• Fixed – Effects; Random - Effects

• Sibling Comparisons

• Instrumental Variables

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Selection?

RESPONSE 2: Experimental, random assignment datasets:

Moving To Opportunity (MTO):• 1994 in 5 U.S. metros; 4,700 households• Public housing / rent vouchers no aid / vouchers

with aid but must locate in <10% poverty area for one year

• Compare groups over time

BUT: many flaws in MTOGeorge Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA; presentation at Humboldt University, 2007

How Overcome Challenge of Selection?

RESPONSE 3: Natural-experiment, quasi-random assignment panel datasets:

• PHA desegregation: Gautreaux (Rosenbaum et al.), Yonkers (Briggs et al.)

• Immigrant re-settlement (Sweden: Edin, Fredricksson, Aslund;)

• Social housing allocation: Denver-USA (Galster & Santiago); Canada (Oreopolis)

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Main Methodological Challenges of Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood: 6

Endogeneity:

CHALLENGES:

“Reflection Problem” in cross-sectional samples (Manski);

Simultaneity of Choosing Home Own/Rent Status, Mobility Status, Neighborhood Characteristics (Galster)

Endogenous Selection (Hedman)George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Endogenity: Reflection Problem

aggregate neighborhood characteristics individuals’ characteristics in neigh’d

Or:

Individuals’ characteristics when aggregated neighborhood aggregate characteristics

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Endogeneity: Simultaneous Neighborh’d, Tenure, Longevity Choices

Neigh’d choice Tenure choice

Mobility

Behavioral Outcomes

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

But it is not so simple as controlling for mobility and tenure choice…

Endogeneity: Simultaneous Neighborh’d, Tenure, Longevity Choices

Simultaneity:

Neigh’d choice Tenure choice

Mobility

Behavioral Outcomes

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Endogenous Selection

Behaviorit=f([Observedit], [Neighborhoodit], e1)

[Neighborhoodit]=f([Observedit], Behaviorit ,e2)

[Neighborhood]

Behavior

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

How Overcome Challenge of Endogeneity?

RESPONSE:

[Random & Natural Experiments]

Instrumental Variables (IVs)

(Hedman & Galster) –upcoming session

Model mobility, tenure choice, neighborhood choice, neighborhood effects holistically-IVs

(Galster, Marcotte, Mandell, Wolman)

BUT: weak IVs, unavailable data sourcesGeorge Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Promising Future Directions: 1

(1) Exploit Longitudinal Social Register Data(Andersson; Hedman, Galster [SWE]; Musterd

[NETH])

Allows GIS-specified, individual-centered “bespoke neighborhoods” to be defined and their characteristics measured precisely and comprehensively

Fixed- Effects models estimated with varying time structures control for selection

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

Promising Future Directions: 2

(2) Exploit natural experiments

- Overcomes endogeneity and initial neigh’d selection challenges without econometric fixes of questionable power

- BUT: these advantages weaken as time after initial assignment passes

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

CONCLUSION: Challenges of

Quantifying Effects of Neighborhood

• Defining “Neighborhood”

• Measuring Neighborhood Characteristics

• Measuring Neighborhood Dosage

• Measuring Dosage-Response Relationship

• Selection

• Endogeneity

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA; presentation at Humboldt University, 2007

CONCLUSION: Overcoming Methodological Challenges

• Defining “Neighborhood”: analyze various scales• Measuring Neighborhood Characteristics:

factor analysis, proxy variables• Measuring Dosage: routine activity space

analysis• Measuring Dosage-Response Relationship:

non-linear modeling, lag/cumulative models• Selection: Econometric fixes; random- assignment

experiments; natural experiments • Endogeneity: as above

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

CONCLUSION: Promising New Directions

• Exploit longitudinal social register datasets

• Exploit natural experiments

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

THANK YOU-GOOD LUCK TO US ALL; QUESTIONS?

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;

THANK YOU; QUESTIONS? REFERENCES

Galster, G. (2001). On the Nature of Neighborhood, Urban Studies 38(12), 2111-2124.Galster, G. (2002). An Economic Efficiency Analysis of Deconcentrating Poverty Populations. Journal of Housing Economics

11, 303-329.Galster, G. (2003) Investigating Behavioral Impacts of Poor Neighborhoods: Towards New Data and Analytic Strategies.

Housing Studies 18(3), 893-914.Galster, G. (2005). Neighborhood Mix, Social Opportunities, and the Policy Challenges of an Increasingly Diverse

Amsterdam. Amsterdam, Netherlands: University of Amsterdam, Dept. of Geography, Planning, and International Development Studies; available at:http://www.fmg.uva.nl/amidst/object.cfm/objectid=7C149E7C-EC9F-4C2E-91DB7485C0839425

Galster, G. (2007) Neighbourhood social mix as a goal of housing policy: A theoretical analysis. European Journal of Housing Policy 7(1), pp. 19-43.

Galster, G. (2007). Should Policy Strive for Social Mix in Neighborhoods? A Review of the European Evidence Base. Housing Studies 22 (4): 523-546.

Galster, G., Andersson, R., Musterd, S., & Kauppinen, T. (2008). The Effect of Neighborhood Income Distribution on Individuals’ Income Prospects. Journal of Urban Economics 63: 858-870.

Galster, G., Andersson, R., Musterd, S. (forthcoming). Who Is Affected by Neighbourhood Income Mix?• Gender, Age, Family, Employment and Income Differences . Urban Studies Galster, G., Cutsinger, J. & Malega, R. (2006). “The Social Costs of Concentrated Poverty: Externalities to Neighboring

Households and Property Owners and the Dynamics of Decline,” paper presented at “The Future of Rental Housing” conference, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, Nov. 14.

Galster, G. Marcotte, D., Mandell, M. Wolman, H. & Augustine, N. (2007). Effects of Childhood Poverty on Young Adult Fertility, Education, and Incomes. Housing Studies 22 (5): 723-752

Galster, G., Quercia, R. & Cortes, A. (2000). Identifying Neighborhood Thresholds: An Empirical Exploration, Housing Policy Debate 11(3), 701-732.

Galster, G., Tatian, P., Santiago, A., Pettit, K. & Smith, R. (2003). Why NOT in My Back Yard? The Neighborhood Impacts of Assisted Housing. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University / Center for Urban Policy Research Press.

Galster, G., & Zobel, A. (1998). Will dispersed housing programmes reduce social problems in the US? Housing Studies, 13(5), 605-622.

George Galster, Wayne State University, Detroit, USA;