Measures of progress in international development RSS 2013 Conference Neil Jackson, Chief Statistician Department for International development.

Measures of progress in international development

RSS 2013 Conference

Neil Jackson, Chief Statistician Department for International

development

Measures of progress in international development

• From GDP to sustainable development indicators

• The Millennium Development Goals

• Lessons for the Post-2015 development agenda

World Bank classification of economies

2012 Gross National Income per Capita (World Bank Atlas method)

• Low income: $1,035 or less• Lower middle income: $1,036 to $4,085• Upper middle income: $4,086 to $12,615• High income: $12,616 or more

Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress; 2009

Professor Joseph E. STIGLITZ, Chair, Columbia University

Professor Amartya SEN, Chair Adviser, Harvard University

Professor Jean-Paul FITOUSSI, Coordinator of the Commission, IEP

Multi-dimensional aspects of current well-being

i. Material living standards (income, consumption and wealth);

ii. Health;

iii. Education;

iv. Personal activities including work

v. Political voice and governance;

vi. Social connections and relationships;

vii. Environment (present and future conditions);

viii. Insecurity, of an economic as well as a physical nature.

The Millennium Development Goals

Extract from High level Report

Term How it is used in this report Example from MDGs

GoalExpresses an ambitious, but specific, commitment. Always starts with a verb/action.

Reduce child mortality

Targets

Quantified sub-components that will contribute in a major way to achievement of goal. Should be an outcome variable.

Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

Indicators

Precise metric from identified databases to assess if target is being met (often multiple indicators are used).

Proportion of 1-year olds immunized against measles

GOAL 1:ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY & HUNGER

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day

Indicators for monitoring progress

1.1 Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day1.2 Poverty gap ratio1.3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

GOAL 1:ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY & HUNGER

  1990 1999 2005 2010

Developing Regions 46.7 36.5 26.9 22.0

Target 1.A:Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 ($1.25) a day

Indicator 1.1 Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day (percentage)

GOAL 1:ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY & HUNGER

Target 1.A:Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day

Indicator 1.2 Poverty gap ratio – incidence multiplied by depth of poverty; (percentage)

  1990 1999 2010

Developing Regions 16.1 11.9 6.8

GOAL 1:ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY & HUNGER

Target 1.A:Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day

Indicator 1.3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

No global or regional data are available

IAEG: Lessons learned from MDG Monitoring

• Targets and indicators perceived as “top down”

• The baseline year was set too far away from the adoption of the framework

• Confusion over whether the targets were global or national

Some goals, targets and indicators are not well-aligned

GOAL 3:Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A:Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

Indicator 3.3Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament

Some targets lack clear numerical yardsticks, and are ambiguous and vague

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

Illustrative Goals from the High Level Panel Report

1 End poverty2 Empower Girls and Women and Achieve Gender Equality3 Provide Quality Education and Lifelong Learning4 Ensure Healthy Lives5 Ensure Food Security and Good Nutrition6 Achieve Universal Access to Water and sanitation7 Secure Sustainable Energy8 Create Jobs, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Equitable Growth9 Manage natural resources sustainably

10 Ensure Good Governance and Effective Institutions11 Ensure Stable and Peaceful Societies

12Create a Global Enabling Environment and Catalyse Long-Term Finance

GOAL 1:ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY & HUNGER

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day

Target 1.B:Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

Target 1.C:Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger