About the Author S.Hadi Zarghani ph.D. Assistant Professor in Political Geography & Geopolitics Ferdowsi University Of Mashhad .IRAN
Measuring national power and designing a model with which we can compare countries in a certain time and or the situation of one country in two different times has always been one of the challenges facing scientists in Social Science. In this respect, to measure the power of countries many efforts have been made especially in the 60's and 70's. All of them have compared the countries from limited perspective. In this research a new model is presented to measure national power; it is much better than previous models. Paying attention to all the aspects of national power (Economical, Social, Cultural, Political, Military, Astro-space, Territorial, Scientific and Transnational),paying attention to the usage of 87 variables, are some of the benefits of this model. This book is not only explaining the designing of the national power evaluation model in 13 stages but also evaluating the power of 140 countries by using the above model. It is aimed at upper-level undergraduates, research students and academic researchers in Fields: Political Geography, Social Science, International relations ,Political science, Economic and Management.
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Measurement of National Power: Definitions, Functions, Measurement (Paperback)
and technological and Cultural), paying attention to the usage of various variants, variety in
the form of 87 factors, stressing the usage of new and strategically compatible variants to
the current time are some of the benefits of this model. Also using the Delphi method and
referring to the opinions of experts about determining the role and importance of variables
affecting national power, the option of drawing out the global power structure… are some
the other advantages that this model has compared to previous ones. This book has seven
chapter that includes:
Chapter One: National Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions
Chapter Two: A Historical Approach at power-creating factors
Chapter Three, Sources and Factors of national power
Chapter Four: Approaches to Measuring of national power
Chapter Five: Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation
Chapter Six: Measuring National Power of countries
Chapter One:
National Power: Definitions, Notions, Functions
The concept of “power” is the center of all the analyses in the political world and many
scholars such as Morgentau consider power the foundation of international policies and are
of the conviction that all policies are, in fact, attempts to gain power. 0F
1 Power and its
presence in the political world is so important that some people like Wolves compare it to
the “role of money” in economic relations and believe that power does the same thing in the
international world that money does in the international economy. 1F
2 Others regard power as a
sun in the solar system and state that all manifestations and aspects of foreign policy and
international relations between the countries turn around power. This is because countries
are always trying to gain power and power is vital for their survival. In other words, all
countries fight for gaining power, maintaining power, or displaying power. 2F
3 On this basis,
one important issue in international relations is the power of political units particularly that
1-Divid. Jablonsky, National Power, parameters,27 ( spring 1997)p. 34 2-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003,p.169 3 -Abdolrahman Alam. Principles of political science, Tehran, Nee publication, 1999 .p. 188
of countries which is referred to as national power. In fact, like the notion of power,
different viewpoints exist about definitions, examples, and component of national power.
Definition and concept of national power:
National power, as a geopolitical concept, reflects the mass characteristics of a nation which
is the sum of their capabilities and potentials. 3F
1 When we look at power in the framework of
a society or a nation, general power is considered by the sum of the society’s capabilities.
Therefore, all the people who have formed a nation and have gained political organization in
the form of a country have a power that is gained from the sum of their capabilities and is
thus considered their national power. This power is the mathematical sum of the positive
and negative elements of power and foundations of that country that is active and is
comprehended when compared with other nations’ and countries. There are different
definitions of national power but four have been presented here:
“National power consists of the materialistic and spiritual capabilities that exist in one
geographical and political unit called a country or a government”. 4F
2
In his book titled “Comprehensive national power”, Shuofeng Huang, the well-known
Chinese scholar, states that national power consists of perfect power and international
influence of a nation both in materialistic aspects and spiritual aspects that a nation
uses in order to survive and develop. 5F
3 National power means: “capability, potential, and capacity of a nation and a country
for using its material and spiritual resources in order to impose national
determination and gain national interests and goals”. 6F
4
National power can be defined simply as a country’s capacity to pursue strategic
goals through purposeful action. This view of national power suggests two distinct
but related dimensions of capacity: an external dimension, which consists of a
nation’s capacity to affect the global environment through its economic, political, and
1-Mohammad Reza. Hafeznia,. et al, “analysis of geographical basics of national power of Islamic Republic of Iran” Journal of geographical science , Tarbiat Moalem University Press, 2003. p. 51. 2-Ali asgar. kazemi, Role of power in society and international relations,Tehran, Goms publication,1994,p.16 3-Huang Shuofeng, Comprehensive National Power Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press, 1992, p. 102 4-Hafeznia,. et al (2003), op. cit., p.170
military potential, and an internal dimension, which consists of a nation’s capacity to
transform the resources of its society into “actionable knowledge” that produces the
best civilian and military technologies possible. Any effort at creating a useful
national power profile must incorporate variables that capture these two
dimensions. 7F
1
Dimensions and levels of national power:
National power has two aspects: aspect of influence and aspect of force. Aspect of influence
is more subjective (although it has objective nature as well) and countries and governments
try to apply their power by imposing their influence on others and by fulfilling their
determination. Aspect of force is more objective and depends on military power and
punishment tools which are used by governments in the next steps and when the aspect of
influence does not prove effective. 8F
2
National power of countries has different levels and degrees. Based on the space and the
effectiveness power of the phenomena and the processes outside a country, levels of power
can be divided as follows:
1- Extra-global power is a power that has an influence beyond the globe and the space
between the planets.
1. National power with global effect is a power that can affect global processes whether
they have one aspect or multiple aspects, such as superpower like the US or former
Soviet Union.
2. National power with regional effect is a power that can be manifested in a
geopolitical region, such as India in South Asia.
3. National power with local effect is a power that can only affect its neighbors, such as
Saudi Arabia in Arabic peninsula .
4. National power with domestic effect is a power that is manifested inside the borders
of a country such as Nepal that does not have any hegemony beyond its borders.
1-Ashley J. Tellis ,et al. Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial Age, Rand Crop.2000.p. 45 2-Jalil. roshandel, national security and international system ,Tehran, Samt Press, 1995,p.23
5. Weakened national power that does not have total power even within its borders such
as Somalia and Afghanistan. 9F
1
Historically, national power is linked with military capacity and capabilities, because wars
have always had significant effects on international relations and winning or losing a war
has been a factor for evaluating the power of countries. However, we cannot just rely on a
single factor in order to determine the national power of a country. For instance, the huge
expansion of Brazil, high population of Pakistan, industrial production of Belgium, and etc.
are not considered the basis of evaluating national power. The best evidence is that none of
the aforementioned counties is a first-class power. 10F
2 In addition, national power has two
aspects; one is objective and active and the other one is subjective and potential.
Governments try to turn their potential capacities into active ones.
Functions of national power:
On the whole, power has different functions the main axis of which is the provision of the
conditions for fulfilling the goals and interests of individuals and groups. Power is the factor
of life and survival, and it is therefore favored by individuals, groups, and governments.
Any creature devoid of power is doomed to die and thus the innate need for continuance of
life forces human being to gain power. It can be said that humanity, intentionally or
unintentionally, directly or indirectly, is busy gaining power and maintaining it. This reality
expresses the natural and innate tendency of people. On this basis, national power has
different functions and applications. Some of the most important functional capabilities of
national power from the viewpoint of scholars include: • The most important function of national power of countries is satisfying national
interests, and maintaining and expanding them. 11F
3
• Using materialistic and spiritual resources of the country with the aim of imposing
national determination and gaining the goals and national interests. 12F
4
• Guaranteeing satisfaction of the needs and wishes of a nation or a country
17. Maintaining the values of life, and national identity and pride
18. Protecting national power and preventing national embarrassment
Although the aforementioned list is among the national goals and interests of countries,
achieving them or their relevance depends of the county’s conditions, national power, and
the strategies pursued by political leaders. 15F
1
The factor behind national power is not just the tools of achieving national interests and
goals, although such a role is expected. On the other hand, national power can be manifested
as a national goal as well. Knowing that national power is the most important and
fundamental way of maintaining their existence and fulfilling their interests and goals, all
countries attempt to strengthen this tool and avoid its weakening. Strengthening national
power increases the chances of achieving national goals and weakening it will result in
failure in achieving absolute rights. In addition, countries use power to achieve their
national interests and security and try to use it to protect and develop their national interests.
In addition to these domestic and foreign goals, governments sometimes use their power to
maintain their power and lengthen their rule. They usually use power against their own
people in order to guarantee their rule and turn their friendly relation with their nation into
one filled with enmity. They use levers of power such as law, army, police, justice system,
and others to hurt their own people to give it an unreasonable legitimacy.
On the whole, national power is used by the governments in two domains:
1. Domestic domain
2. Foreign domain
In the domestic domain, power is used to legislate, regulate social affairs, implement the
law and social justice, and satisfy public security through related organized organizations
such as legislative, judicial, security, military, advertisement organizations and etc. in the
foreign domain, national power is used to protect national interests, to fulfill the national
needs through foreign approaches, satisfy national security, reduce foreign threats, enhance
national prestige, and etc. 16F
2
1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. The Principles of SocioPolitical studies ,Qom press , 2000.p. 248 2-Hafeznia. (2003) , op. cit, P. 25
In fact nations have different wishes, hopes, and interests and fulfilling such wishes
depends on the level and nature of national power particularly in comparison with other
countries. If a country enjoys a high level of national power, it can fulfill its wishes without
facing any obstacles. Some countries not only have access to such a power in the globe and
on earth, but also beyond the borders of earth. Some countries are also so weak that they
cannot fulfill their basic needs. Therefore, it can be said that there is a direct relationship
between the national power of a country and its role in the international relations. In other
words, the type of foreign policy of a country, which guarantees its role in the international
relations, is affected by the condition of national power of that country. 17F
1 Undoubtedly, such
superpowers as Russia and the US have a different role in comparison to a mini-power like
Bahrain. In the economic domain, the role of such superpowers as the US and Japan is not
comparable with Germany. 18F
2
In regard to the domestic and foreign uses of the national power of a country, different
scholars have presented different theories and models. One of these models, which
expresses national power in different domestic and particularly foreign domains, has been
proposed by George Modelski and it is known as “input-output” model. Modelski model is
mainly based on a series of hypothesis in political philosophy and this has been totally
linked to the domain of political power. The hypotheses of this model include:
1. In foreign policy, the base in maintaining, gaining, and displaying power.
2. There are different kinds of power: constructive, educational, and destructive power.
3. The necessity of prioritizing resources to goals.
1-Mohamad Kazem. Sajad pour, foreign policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies, 2002,p.46 2-Seifzadeh. (2003), op. cit,p. 352
Using theory of systems, Modelski compares and evaluates the foreign policy behavior and
respectively just considers on two phases of input and output of power.
Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power
Source:Gorge modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan
publication, 2003:p.352
As it can be seen in figure 1, the main variables of the model are input-output of power
and the policy making phase is used as a transferring fuse. The contents of modelski model
show that he used the mental framework governing the calculation of profits and expenses
in order to explain the political system as a power-producing system. In this system, the
policy maker must pay attention to the fact that the outcomes of power must be increasingly
more than the inputs of power. The environment for making policies must be in a way that
the policy maker decided on the basis of the profits that can be gained from both domestic
and foreign operation environment. Input of power generates the profits for middle power
that is the decision making environment. Eventually, output of power must be much more in
comparison to input of power. Modelski’s model conclusion is that governments’
conservatism, balance, and ambitious attitude depends on the output of power that is being
generated.
Comparing this change and exchange in the form of input and output of power
objectively shows the way profits are enhanced in the framework of national strategy. This
issue forces foreign policy makers to operate and measure the goals and resources of foreign
policy and thus is this project is implemented, then the interference of mentalities and
related objective issues in regard to foreign policy will be to a great extent prevented. 19F
1
The relationship between power, interests and national strategy:
National power has in nature a tendency toward expansion and development and all nations
seek to increase their national power as well. No country can be found that is not trying to
increase the level of its natural power and enhance its position in the international system.
Just like all humans, countries have a competition for gaining more power and attempt to
gain new capabilities, opportunities, and capacities. In fact, national power is active in
nature. While it can be manifested as a national goal, it can also be used as a tool by the
governments and political leaders to gain, maintain and develop national goals. 20F
2
National goals and interests are active as well and are always changing. National power
and security are considered among national goals which the governments try to secure by
using the lever of national power. In fact, national power is a two-dimensional phenomenon,
namely it is both the goal and the tool. It is a tool used by governments and political leaders
to gain national goals and security. The objective form and the main manifestation of
application of national power is in national strategy adopted by political leaders of a
country. It is in the national strategy that the most efficient pattern of national power is
1-Gorge. modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003:p.353 2-Hafeznia. (2003) ,op. cit, P. 29
determined by political leaders. On the other hand, national power depends on it. Therefore,
the necessity of existence of a country and a nation as well as its success require that nations
and governments always try to maintain and develop their national power as national power
is the factor of existence and success of a nation. Among the main motivations for gaining
national power is shortage of resources because “shortage of enough available resources and
the contradictory elements that exist for achieving the goals results in the activation of the
motivation for increasing power in order to accomplish the goals. 21F
1
On the whole, there is a three-way relationship between national power ,national
interests, and national strategy. The quality of level of satisfying national interests depends
on the level and quality of national power of that country. In order to establish a relationship
between these two variables “strategy” plays an important role. In other words, strategy is
manifested between two phenomena and issues; one is power and its tools and the second
one is the goal and objective. Strategy is the link between these two phenomena. In fact,
strategy is the art and nature of application of power in order to achieve the goals. 22F
2 In order
to define national strategy, it has been said that: strategy is the science of politics and
governing countries and national strategy is the science and knowledge of organized
development of economic, political, cultural, religious, ethical, and military capacities of a
nation and its application for achieving the national goals 23F
3. In addition, another definition
of national goal says: “strategy consists of the art of application of all elements of power of
a nation or a group of nations in order to achieve their goals during war and peace. 24F
4
In a country, strategy is the art of the political leaders of a country to look at the
capabilities, abilities, and level of national power, on one hand, and look at the national
interests and goals on the other hand. They then need to adopt the policies to achieve
national goals and interests by using their level of national power. Therefore, the three
elements of national power, national goals and interests, and strategy, are all linked
together and interact with one another. The following picture expresses this relationship.
1-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Theory-Building in International Relations Fundamentals and Paradigms, Tehran, Samt publication p. 144 2-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302 3-Robert. Walters , Nuclear Weapon,Tehran,trans: fatahi mohamad reza, Tehran, policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies, 1985,p.3 4-Encyclopedia Encarta,CD, Under Strategy , p.98
Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy
Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302
The relationship between national power, geopolitical weight and domain of influence:
On the other hand, there is also a relationship between countries’ geopolitical weight,
national power, and domain of influence. In this way, geopolitical weight of a country,
which is applied to the mathematical sum of elements of national power 25F
1, determines the
position of the national power of a country and its geopolitical position among all countries
and in the world. In addition, geopolitical weight and position affects the national strategy
of a country in the region and in the world and determines that country’s domain of
influence. In contrast, the quality and quantity of countries’ domain of influence affects
their geopolitical weight and national power. Therefore, governments attempt to expand the
domain of influence between them and it is by expanding the domain of influence, which is
1-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P.211
mainly a space-geographical concept, that national security is secured, threats are reduced,
and national interests are satisfied. The following figure is indicative of this relationship. 26F
1
Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and Domain of influence
Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 212
On the whole, distribution of power in the international community is not equal and each
political unit attempts to allocate to itself a greater proportion of power. On this basis, the
desires and behavior of strong and weak governments in the international system and its
emergence in the international arena is different. In other words, stronger governments,
when faced with other countries’ power, are capable of preserving their independence and
the more the power and capability of a government, the more expanded their domain of
action. Moreover, in the international system, stronger countries enjoy more facilities and
tools to preserve their interests and in turn weaker counties have more capability to bargain.
27F
2 In addition, governments and nations face difficult conditions for securing their interests
and desires and in regard to their relationship with other governments and getting out of it,
while trying to secure the interests depends on the degree of national power of the country.
1 -Ibid 2-Ibid
When faced with a crisis, stronger counties change the conditions to their benefit, but
weaker countries will be forced to tolerate the difficulties and ignore all or some of their
desires and interests. It should be mentioned that the application of national power during
the crisis depends on the characteristics of leaders of countries. 28F
1
In addition to all these, strong governments have a more expanded domain of national
interests and thus face more conflicts in the arena of international politics. Meanwhile, the
domain of interests of weak countries is usually local and regional and thus limited. For
instance, in the post world War II periods, each international event affected the interests of
the two superpowers of the US and Soviet Union in a way that any reaction or threatening
action from the part of each of these two superpowers in the international system was
considered a threat against the other one. This meant that the relative position of power of
these two countries was controlled by the other one. Meanwhile, weak countries did not pay
a lot attention about the events that were happening on the other side of the world because
they were basically occupied with their own issues and their domain of interests did not go
beyond the borders of their region. 29F
2 Another distinguishing feature of super powers and
weak countries is the expansion of their security domain. The relative power of superpowers
provides them with the opportunity to fundamentally define and change the rules and
regulations of international challenges and so wither stay immune to the consequences or
reduce them to a minimum in spite of all repeated mistakes. They even sometimes
transferred their wrong decisions to other parts of the world. This is while weaker countries
are forced to pay a heavy price for each small mistake and because they cannot afford the
price, their position will become very fragile.
On the whole, great powers try to maintain their position in the arena of international
relations and put an end to international challenges in a way that power will be distributed to
their benefit. On the other hand, weaker countries that are not satisfied with the unequal
distribution of power in the international system do not like to keep the current situation and
1-Sayed Abdol ali. Gavam, The Principles of foreign policy and international politics ,Tehran ,Samt press , 2001.p.63 2-Ali Asgar. Kazemi, Management of International crisis ,Tehran, farhang publication. 1989. p. 82
desire to make changes in the pattern and fabric of international system. 30F
1 Table 1 is
indicative of this issue.
Table 1: Capability of the players
Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 119
Table 1 shows the general capability of each of the players. Theoretically, the figure
simply indicates that in the international political system, only power must be considered
because lack of power makes a country weak and passive in the international arena. It
should also be mentioned that although small and middle players would like to change
the situation, they perforce to limit their ambitious to a great extent. 31F
2
Summary of discussion:
1-Ibid 2-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 118
1. The main applications of power include: securing national interests and expanding
and preserving it, guaranteeing the accomplishment of the wishes of a nation or
country, factor of survival and development of a nation and a country, following
functional goals by intentional measures through affecting the international
environment (in the international dimension), changing social resources to
“applicable science” that produces the best possible military and non-military
technology (domestic dimension)
2. There is a direct relationship between the national power of a country and its role in
the international relations. In other words, the kind of foreign policy of a country
guarantees its role in the international arena and this is the result of the national
power of a country.
3. National strategy links national power and national interests. In fact, strategy of art
and the nature of using power is for accomplishment of national goals. In a country,
strategy is the art of political leaders so to look at the capabilities, abilities, and level
of national power and on the other hand, look at national goals and interests.
4. There is a relationship between national power and geopolitical weight of a country
as well as its domain of influence. Strong countries have a more expanded domain of
national interests and face fewer obstacles in the way of achieving their goals. On the
other hand, the domain of national interests of weak countries is limited and such
countries face numerous failures and challenges in the way of achieving their goals. 32F
1
1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the variables effective on national power and designing of the model for measurement of national power of countries .Thesis of Ph.D in political geography ,Tarbiat Modares University,Iran,2006, p. 45
Chapter Two:
A Historical Approach at power-creating factors
One of the important issues in discussions on national power is the historical approach to
regimes of power and power-creating factors in history. In more exact words, the question is
in different periods what factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and absolute
power for a special country in the system of power. Fundamentally, seeking power,
hegemony or control over regional affairs, parts or all of the world has been the main
objective in geopolitical competitions 33F
1 and the attempts by great powers has always been in
this regard in order to achieve unique power-creating factors and tools have a better position
in the current power system.
Factors and tools for creating hegemony in the historical systems of power:
1-Pirouz. Mojtahed-Zadeh , Political Geography and Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt Publication,2002,p. 137
Trying to answer the question that in different periods of historical systems of power, what
factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and prior power for any particular
country in the system of power, theorists have provided different explanations.
Geographical location, communication means, military factors, economic factors, cultural
tools, political position, or a combination of all these factors have been considered to be the
means of gaining power. According to these theorists, the arena of international relations is
the arena of competition between the players who try to increase their national power in
order to gain supremacy over other players in the international arena of power. 34F
1 The table
below shows the different approaches toward hegemony.
Table2: Different approaches toward Hegemony
Source:Joseph,Nye,quoted by Mohamad Hossini Moghadam, Soft Power,Tehran, Quarterly
Rahbord,2003,p.351
As it was mentioned before, theorists have expressed different opinions about
hegemony-creating factors and tools in different historical periods. These theories are to be
explained here:
1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 87
some scholars in the political science have emphasized that military power is one of
the sources for creating hegemony. In such an approach, hegemonic supremacy is the
result of military expansion. Thus, being equipped with weapons and fire units in the
14th and 15th centuries is regarded as a reason behind some changes in the distribution of
power. 35F
1 Moreover, the attempts made by Napoleon and Hitler in regard to military
expansion have been considered to provide the grounds for hegemony in the political
world. The important issue is that except for short periods in history, no military
hegemony has proved successful in the recent centuries and no modern government has
managed to develop its military power in a way to have enough power to create a long-
term hegemony in the world. (Refer to Table 3). 36F
2. Period of emergence of professional armies and tribal wars (1648-1789)
3. Period of industrialization and national wars
4. Period of full-scale wars and emergence of air and military industries (1914 onward)
46F
1
Modelski is another theorist who has proposed some factors as the tools of great
powers for ruling the world. In his theory called “theory of power cycle” has considered
some hypotheses for achieving sovereign power. Among them is that the political
leadership of the world is in need of leadership in the economic power because
economic power gives order to global economy and facilitates giving order to the
political structure and war technology. Alongside political determining power, he
considers the waves of political innovation. In fact, he attaches more significance to
political power and the innovations resulting from it, but believes an economic power is
needed to achieve and to implement these supremacies. Therefore, there is a need for a
combination of political and economic innovation in order to gain a position in regard to
leading the world. According to the two kinds of innovations stated above, global
communications industry will revolutionized as well. 47F
2 Using this frame of history,
Modelski predicts that in the future cyclic changes will cause the emergence of two
processes. 1) decline of US leadership 2)possible changes in the process of global wars.
Explaining the first item, he insists that US leadership has not arrived to its end yet. In
order to keep this position, the US aims to maintain its leadership by creating some sort
of political and economic innovation inside its borders. However, to Modelski, this wish
will come true only when the US succeeds to strategically emphasize its political
innovations. In regard to the second item, Modelski claims that global war will turn into
global peace and thus the future global leadership will be mainly based in political,
technological, and economic merits rather than military power. 48F
3 also Modelski and
William Thompson in book ” Leading Sectors and World” present new Model about
1-Quincy. Wright, A Study of War, Chicago, University of Chicago press,1942, p.295-8 2-Seifzadeh. (2000) , op. cit, P. 120 3-Ibid
Leading Sectors in creation Hegemonic Control during historical ages. The following
Figure 5, expresses this issue:
Figure 5: “Leading Sectors” Underlying Hegemonic Control in History
SOURCE: George. Modelski and William R. Thompson, Leading Sectors and World Powers (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1996), p. 69.
Chapter Three:
Sources and Factors of national power
National power has different sources and basics that produce national power in one single
function. The main factors forming national power of countries are in different domains.
Geopolitical science, which investigates and evaluates national power of countries, pays
attention to all these factors. Some of these factors of power have a basic and fundamental
role and some other considered secondary. 49F
1
Power of countries depends on different factors and resources and it actually arises from
them. Economic, individual, scientific and spiritual, social factors and the like can all be
1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the Models of measurement of national power, Tehran, Geopolitics Quatrerly , Geogrphical Organization ,winter 2008, p.155
sources of power. Factors of national power are both in regard to quality and quantity, it
means variables of each of the abovementioned factors can have both quantity and quality
aspects. Since the issue of national power has been regarded by geography scientists,
geopolitics and political geography professionals, political science and international
relations specialists, strategy makers and politicians, each group has tried to provide to
present a list of the factors affecting national power and most of these factors have been
agreed upon. However, the common problem in all of them, which has not dealt with yet, is
measuring national power and its indexes. 50F1 Due to the existence of some quality factors
and impossibility of measuring them, no one has managed to offer a proper and complete
model for comprehensive measuring of national power. However, some researches have
managed to assess and compare the power of countries on the basis of some factors and
variables and thus show the position of countries and regions in the world. On the whole,
power is either assessed in comparison to another power or in comparison to a number of
important indexes or level of power. In other words, an average of the producing factors of
power in one country is assessed. 51F
2
Different points of view on factors ,foundations and sources of national power:
Scholars in different fields such as political science, international relations, political
geography and geopolitics have expressed their viewpoints for explaining the resources of
power in different countries. Here the viewpoints and opinions of different experts in regard
to the factors and bases of different countries’ power will be presented in brief:
David Jablonsky explains the variables of national power as:
1. Natural factors of power, including:
A. Geography: location, climate, size, topography that affect national capacity
B. Population: size, processes, structure, etc.
C. Natural resources: raw materials of agriculture and farming, mines, burning
B. Army and military capacity: force, weapon technology, and etc.
C. Political factors, spirit, governance form, population attitude, management and skill
of administration,
D. Psychological factor, national behavior, national character and spirit, national
integrity 52F
1
Hans Morgenthau, one of the founders of Realism movement in international
relations, divides the main variables and factors of national power into 8 parts, which
are:
1. Geographical location
2. Natural resources (particularly food and raw material)
3. Industrial capacity
4. Military preparation (particularly technology, leadership, quantity and
quality of armed forces) 5. Population (particularly distribution and
tendencies)
6. National character, national spirit
7. Diplomatic quality
8. Government quality 53F
2
Organski, considers the following factors the sources of national power:
population size, political capability of government, and economic
development. Combining these factors, GDP is considered to be the means of
measuring national power. 54F
3
Nicholas Spikeman, the American Geo-politician, believes that the following
variables are the foundations of power: country’s size, identity of borders, population,
1-Jablonsky. op. cit,P. 43 2-Hans. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967, quoted by ،Hoshang Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.33 3-A.F.K. Organski, World Politics, New York: Knopf, 1958 , quoted by roshandel, op. cit ,p.68
natural resources, economic and industrial development, financial power, racial
compatibility, amount of social integrity, political stability, and national spirit. 55F
1
Martin Glassner, scholar of political geography, names the variables of national
2. Population, including: quality and quantity aspects such as number,
gender and age relations, military force arising from it, immigration, level
of education, literacy, distribution of wealth, national quality, national
combination, smart people, social institutions, way of thinking and
national interests
3. Government, structure, efficiency, populism, general acceptability, quality
of managers and political leaders, health of performance, lawfulness, and
etc.
4. Economy: wealth, GDP, capacity of production, trade surplus, science and
technology, investment, research, industry, skill of human force,
management, agriculture, bank, insurance, etc.
5. Communications: transport, goods flow, services, and beliefs, level of
awareness, radio, telephone, TV, media, etc.
6. Military force: equipment, force, education, quality of governance,
motivations, logistics, military doctrine, strategy and tactic, information
system, preparation of the forces, strategic bases, strategic partners.
7. Foreign relations: international trade, cultural relations, participation in
distribution and transfer of development resources, participation in the UN
and other international organizations, international position and prestige. 56F
2
Guido Fischer, German author, considers the following three groups the variables of
national power:
1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 172 2-Martin. Glassner ,Political Geography , John wieley and sons, New York,1993,P.260
1. Political factors, including: geographical location, size of land, population size and
distribution, organizational skill and cultural level, types of borders and the position
of neighboring countries.
2. Psychological factors, including: economic flexibility and skill in invention,
tolerance and perseverance, talent and capacity of change and transfer 3. Economic factors, including: capacity of the land and underground wealth, industrial
organization and level of technology, foreign trade development, financial resources.57F
1
Another German author, named Rudolf Steinmetz, considers the following eight
elements the contributing variables to national power: 1. Population; 2. Size of the land;
3. Wealth; 4. political facilities; 5. Quality of governance; 6. National unity and
integrity; 7. Maintaining the respect and friendship of foreign powers; 8. Behavioral
quality 58F
2
Huang Suofeng, the well-known Chinese scholar, in his book titled “comprehensive
national power” mentions that soft power is made up of: political power, educational and
cultural power, diplomatic power, and partnership power:
Political power includes political system, strategic goals, social stability, national
unity, capacity of making decisions and organization. Cultural and educational power
means the quality of the work force, development of human resources, educational
quality of cultural authorities, spread of TV, film, books, journals, and their influence in
the international arena, diplomatic power including foreign relations, foreign policy,
foreign activities, and the ability of cooperating in the international community. The
power of partnership is principally refers to the ability of controlling and supervising
team work. 59F
3
1-Hoshang. Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.328 2-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The introduction to national power, Tehran, Research Institute of Strategic Studies, 2009,p. 124 3-ZHU. Majie ,Role of Soft Power in International Relations ,Taken from Internet:http://www.Siis .org.cn/English/journal/en 2003/Zhumajie.htm
John Wakelin , in his book titled “The Roots of Diplomacy” names the factors and
2. Military factors, including: defense budget, number of personnel, military equipment,
techniques, strong movements, quality of military leadership.
3. Economic factors, including: resources, food, productions, energy
4. Colonies, including: resources of colonies, human force, military bases of colonies
5. Social and human factors, including: population, national characteristics and national
spirit, social unity
6. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, governance, factor of
popularity, national prestige, applied quality of resources of national power. 60F
1
In his book titled “international Relations in the Changing World”, Joseph Frankel
names the power-creating factors as: population, geography, economy, government and
military organization, psychological-social factors, and international strategic situation. 61F
2
National Institute of Studies in Japan has designed the project of comprehensive
national power of Japan and has offered 3 main factors for calculating the
comprehensive national power of a country. These factors are: capacity of international
cooperation, ability of survival, power of force, capacity of international cooperation to
the capabilities of the country and its presence in the international arena. Capacity of
survival depends on national determination and friendly union and the power of force
emphasizes the capability of the country in management of its foreign relations. 62F
3
Saul,b.Cohen, the contemporary American scholar of political geography, names the
factors affecting power and the role of each of the components of system such as
governments and countries, as:
1-John. Wakelin ,The Roots of Diplomacy, Trans: Abdolali Gavam ,Tehran, Gomes press, 1991,p. 69-71 2-Joseph. Frankel, International relations in a changing World, Tehran, Translate by Abdolrahman Aalem, Institue for Political and International Studies,2003, p.150 3-Majie. op.cit ,p.4
1. Domestic factors and changes such as political, economic, social, cultural and
technological structure.
2. Foreign factors such as foreign trade, political relations, military bases, foreign
partners, immigration issue, etc which help the development and mutual interaction
between countries and governments as well as the connection between them as
components of the system.
3. Domestic forces which are present in the foreign countries. 63F
1
Based on ten factors of investment, agricultural production, industrial production,
export, developmental research, number of scientists, number of engineers, reduction
of foreign debts, scientific exchange, and number of pattern inventions, Cohen
designed a pattern to evaluate countries. 64F
2
John M. Colins in his work titled “Big Strategy”, names the following factors as the
variables of national power: influential political force in the domestic and international
arenas, national character, educations and science, and many other factors.
In his model for measuring national power, Ray Cline mentions the following
elements as factors of power: economic capacity and capability, population and
expansion, tendency to continue national strategy, strategic objective, military capability
and capacity. 65F
3
Friedrich Ratzel has also emphasized on the role of two factors of expansion and
location of countries on their power. 66F
4
Pamer and Parkins contribute countries’ power to seven phenomena:
Geographical situation, mineral resources, technology, population, ideology, national
spirit, leadership. 67F
5
1-Saul.B. Cohen ,Geopolitics in the new world Era, In Reordering in the world ,USA :west view press ,1994, P.43 2-Ibid 3-Tellis .et al. op. cit , p.30 4-Doreh. Mirhydar, political geography, Tehran, Samt press, 1998, p.6 5-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 119
Jalil Roshandel in his book titled national security and international system, names
the factors of national power as:
geographical factors, including: climate, geographical situation, expansion, raw
material, natural resources
*human factors, including: population, population combination, population quality,
human force, industrial human force
*cultural factors, including: cultural heritage, national unity, ideology
*structure of government, including: political form of the government, efficiency of
government. 68F
1
Ali Asghar Kazemi names the following variables as the factors of national power: 1. Geographical location; 2. Population and human force; 3. Production capacity and
ability, resource and factories; 4. Transport and communication; 5. Scientific talents,
innovations and inventions; 6. Economic system; 7. Administrative and
governmental organization; 8. Strategic situation; 9. Ideology and social behavior;
10. Information and knowledge; 11. Military equipment; 12. Leadership wisdom. 69F
2
Jamrasani Farahani believes that the elements of national power are formed from
domestic tools as well as the tools of the allies. These tools include: political force
dominating the thoughts and actions of those inside and outside the country,
geographical strength and weakness, economic power particularly natural resources,
capacity of industries, financial credits, living location, spirit and education, scientific
and technological base, military and leadership equipment. 70F
3
In his book titled “Different Theories in International Relations”, Hussein Seifzadeh
considers the variables of power to be: 1. Geographical situation; 2. National resources;
3. Population; 4. Quality of government; 5. National spirit; 6. Quality of leadership; 7.
Nationalism; 8. National characteristics; 9. Ideology; 10. Democracy; 11. Capacity and
degree of leadership in a nation. 71F
4
1-roshandel. OP. CIT,P. 69 2-Kazemi. op. cit (1994), p. 139 3-Ali reza. Gamrasani Farahany, concepts of national security, Tehran, 1995,p. 24 4-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Different Theories in International Relations, Tehran, Gomes publication,1995, p. 141
Kenneth N. Waltz suggests the following items: “population size and land size,
resources, economic capability, military power, stability and political capability”. 72F
1
Joshua GoldStein in International Relation emphasizes the significance of
population, land, geography, natural resources as well as political culture, nationalism,
and science and technology as the sources of power. However, among the sources of
power, he attaches great significance to geography and geopolitical situation of the
country and says the most important factors of great position of a government are:
location, location, and location. 73F
2
From a Geopolitical point of view, factors of power include:
A. Fixed factors including, 1. Space and its divisions; 2. Land or location; 3.
Expansion of the land; 4. Natural resources and paths; 5. Shape of the country
B. Dynamic factors, including: 1. Population and residents; 2. Natural resources; 3.
Political, social, and cultural organizations. 74F
3
Tahami explain the factors of national power as:
1. Economic factors, including: economic development, good economic and
commercial relations with other countries, lack of unemployment (creating job
opportunities), not being dependent on one single production, economic and
technological independence, fair distribution of income
2. Cultural and social factors, including: resolving ideological conflicts, solving the
issue of immigration, cultural enhancement, cultural exchanges with other nations,
removing the gaps between the poor and the rich, freedom and creating social
justice, lack of brain drain, resolving the negative effect of foreigners propaganda,
solving the problem of environmental pollution
3. Political factors, including: resolving border disputes, political unity and sympathy
with other countries particularly the neighboring countries, strengthening the
1-Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics Reading, son-Wesley, 1979, quoted by Tellis ,et al. op. cit , p.32 2-Joshua .Goldstein, International Relations. New York, Longman, 1999, p.59 3-Ezatolah . Eezaty, Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt press, 1998,p. 25
position of the government, resolving tribal disputes, political agreement, national
Abdol Ali Ghavam explains the factors and variables of power in his book titled
Principles of Foreign Policy and International Policy.
1. Ideology and political values that bring legitimacy and acceptability for the political
system
2. Social-human factors, including: population size, national features, national spirit,
social integrity
3. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, form of government,
national credibility
4. Geographical factors, including: expansion, shape, natural situation, borders and
location
5. Military factors, including: weapons, equipments, quality of human forces,
leadership, ,military budget, bases, military techniques, motivation of forces,
logistics.
6. Economic factors, including: GDP, annual income, quality of industrial and
agricultural productions, access to resources, degree of dependence on financial and
economic resources of other countries. 76F
2
Abbas Nabavi also names the sources of power in his book titled The Philosophy of
Power:
In a general investigation, the sources of power can be identified as: “first, natural
resources and what is given to humanity by nature for producing power. Second,
human resources and what is used inside human beings and the human society for
producing power. Third, extra-terrestrial resources and what is effective and influential
outside nature and humanity for producing political-social power”. To him, each
source of creating power has the following elements:
1-Mogtaba.Tahami, national security and defence politics, Tehran, University of national defence ,1995, p.33 2-Abdol Ali. Ghavam, Principles of Foreign Policy and International Policy, Tehran, Samt press, 2004, p. 69
1. Natural sources, including: time, natural material (by possession), geographical
situation, and natural capabilities.
2. Human resources, including: population, science, culture, and beliefs
3. Extraterrestrial resources 77F
1
Richard Muir, an scholar in the field of political geography, presented a combined
model consisting of five variables which was able to provide a tentative estimation of
national power of countries. These variables included: expansion, population, production
of alloy, size of army and military forces, number of nuclear submarines. 78F
2
Mohammad Reza Hafiznia divides the most important power-creating factors into 9
groups in his book titled “Principle and concepts of Geopolitics”.
1. economic factors, including:
A. Infrastructures of production such as national investment, national savings,
degree of flow of the assets, natural resources, transport, energy, space, etc.
B. Capacity of production, such as: industrial production, agricultural production,
farming production, production of technical and professional services
C. Level of production, such as: GDP, production per capita, surplus of national
production, international success of production, combination of production
D. Production exchange such as export, import, and trade balance
E. Wealth and financial resources such as: foreign loans, international savings of
currency, international investment, financial services (bank and insurance),
wealth of residents abroad
2. Land factors or natural geographical factors, including:
A. Location such as geopolitical, strategic, communication and climate situation.
B. Situation such as shape, topography, situation of borders, natural security,
climate
C. Expansion and space such as constructed, exploitable spaces, strategic depth,
and can help the rise of tension in social relations among the poor and wealthy classes of
the society. 84F
1
8. Investigation and evaluation of some factors of power such as number of personnel in
the army, nuclear weapons, and amount of raw materials such as oil is very simple.
However, some other factors of power particularly the factors such as national spirit,
national characteristics, quality of diplomacy, government, and leadership are more
difficult to be estimated and evaluated. On the other hand, it is obvious that factors of
power are interrelated because for instance having access to rich raw materials would not
be of great use without technological progress. Due to the dependence of these factors on
one another and since the factors of power cannot be carefully measured or cannot be
assessed using an exact quantity criteria. The attempt to show the power of a country by
using figures and statistics cannot be exact since figures are usually not able to provide a
correct indication of the power of a country particularly because such important quality
factors influence this area. The existence of potential help, degree of sacrifice of people,
their capacity for tolerating hardship, flexibility of the country’s organizations, technical
skill and science are among the quality factors that determine the whole power of a
country.
9. Since we live in the era of the imbalance of technological advances, the relative
significance of different capabilities are always changing. For instance, oil has
substituted coal as the main resource of energy and it itself can be replaced by Uranium
in the future. If nuclear processes by combination reach a stage to release energy, then
uranium tool will lose its value. In that case, few atomic materials would be needed.
Weapons constantly get old, submarines and huge ships get useless, ballistic shuttles
replace airplanes and their pilots after a while. Technology is not the only phenomenon
that is changing. Not only from the evolution of new raw materials and weapons, but
also smaller changes in the relations of power can produce huge gaps in the efficiency of
government or in people’s attitude. 85F
2
1-Nicholas. Eberstad , Population Change and National Security ,Foreign Affairs, Summer 1991,VOL 70,No.3,p.11 2 -Francel. op.cit, p.147
10. Designers of the model, with regard to the time of their life, have attached
importance to special factors in their models. These factors have depicted higher power-
creating value in that particular time. In fact, the majority of the abovementioned
theories are in regard to the 20th century and particularly the 50s until 70s. As a result
they do not accord with updates and do not include the new power-creating factors. This
can be considered to be the most important problem of the abovementioned models. In
addition, the majority of these conceptual models are not comprehensive. In other words,
they do not include the different aspects of power (economic, cultural, military, social,
political, etc.). However, there are a few exceptional models among them one can
mention the models presented by Martin Glassner, Ashly Telis et al., John Week Lin, Ali
Asghar Kazemi, Abdol Ali Ghavam, and Hafiznia. The models presented by Hafiznia
and the model offered by Ashli Telis et al., which have been published in Evaluation of
National Power in the Post-Industrial Era published in 2000, is of higher value both in
regard to the comprehensiveness of the model and in regard to the new power-producing
factors such as factors of information technology, communications, and nano-technology
in this model. 86F
1
Suggested Conceptual model of national power:
After investigation and evaluation of the above models, the model presented by Hafiznia
proved to be more comprehensiveness in regard to variety, number of variables affecting
national power, consideration for positive and negative performance of the variables, and
emphasis on strategic variables compatible with current time. Therefore, this model was
used as the conceptual model for designing the operational model of assessing national
power. Features of this model include:
1-Zarghani. (2008), op. cit, p. 152
Those factors and variables in regard to quantity that affect national power that can be used
to design the model for evaluation of national power of countries, can be divided into nine
groups. Each of these factors is composed of a number of variables. These nine factors
include:
Figure 7 : Model with nine factors of national power
Source: Hafeznia,2006, p.161
In regard to the above model, it is important to mention a few points:
A. The factors of this model in each group is put in the multi-level relation that can be
determined in the following way:
Table 5: conceptual and operational variables of national power
Sourcs: Hafeznia,(2003), op. cit, p272
The relationship between factors of power is depicted in the following model.
Figure 8: The Linear relationship between factors of power
Sourcs: Hafeznia,(2003), op. cit, p273
B. Some of the factors and variables of the model are of quantity nature and are not
measurable and thus measuring the power will cause problems. Therefore, one of the
following methods must be chosen. They must possibly be transformed into operational
variables and measurable factors. In other words, measurable factors must be introduced
for them. For instance, for political cooperation, the factor of number of votes in national
elections (presidential election) can be used. Another way is to evaluate national power
on the basis of the factors and variables that are of quantity nature and they can be used
in the framework of quality analysis of national power of the country and its comparison
with other countries. If it is not possible to use either of these methods, power must be
ignored in their evaluation. 87F
1
C. Since the aim behind designing this conceptual model is designing the model of
evaluating national power, it has been attempted to regard the validity of the sources of
collecting data and to emphasize on those variables, which have comprehensive quantity
data (for more than 150 countries).
1-Hafeznia. (2003), op. cit, p272
Chapter Four: Approaches to Measuring of national power
Power of different countries can be compared in different conceptual ways. It seems that
three dimensions are particularly significant. “Weight” explains the degree to which a
certain government can be influenced. “Grounds”, instead of functional aspects, refers to the
series of issues in which power leaves an effect (such as economic or military) and
“domain” refers to the geographical aspects, regional arenas, inside the region or the world
of power, and the number of governments and other factors. 88F
1 In addition, it is possible to
perform the measurement in two forms of direct “metric” or indirect “evaluation”. In the
first kind of measurement, there is a clear factor, basis and tool for expressing the quantity
of the issue or the amount of the issue under investigation. However, in the second form of
measurement, the issue under investigation is complicated and is a combination of different
factors and thus there is not a clear factor or tool for its measurement. Power is among the
phenomena that is impossible to be measured directly and is extremely difficult to be
measured indirectly. 89F
2
Calculating and measuring national power and designing a model with which we can
compare countries in a certain time and or the situation of one country in two different times
has always been one of the challenges facing scientists in political geography, geo-political,
international relations and political science. In this respect, to measure the power of
countries in all stages after war many efforts have been made especially in the 60's and 70's.
90F
3
These attempts can be divided into three categories: some scholars have just introduced
the factors affecting national power in the framework of the elements constituting national
power and thus have identified a number of variables as the most important factors affecting
national power of countries. The second group, while presenting a conceptual model, has
tried to measure national power of countries on the basis of the scores gained from their
hypothetic variables. Finally, the third group, while choosing some of the factors and
variables by using a mathematical model, and identifying the nature of the relationship and
the combination of the hypothesized variables, have tried to evaluate the national power of
1-Frankel. op.cit , p.154 2-Mehdy. Motahar nia, Concept of power in politic and international relations,Tehran, Institue for Political and International Studies, 1999, p. 158 3- Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.12
countries. Different viewpoints in regard to factors of national power were completely
explained in the previous chapter. While examining the viewpoints of different scholars,
this chapter evaluates the conceptual models and mathematical model of evaluating national
power and while expressing the problems, provides the theoretical framework of the
proposed model for evaluation of national power.
Evaluation of national power: a vain attempt or resolving a big problem
Fundamentally speaking, there are different attitudes towards the issue of measuring
national power among the scholars. These opinions sometimes contradict one another in a
way that designing a model for measuring national power seems impossible to some
scholars. In contrast, some other scholars are of the conviction that it is an inevitable
necessity and is the way of solving an important problem in political geography. In order to
gain more information on some of these attitudes, some are to be explained here:
Peter Taylor, the contemporary scholar of political geography, considers the
presentation of a comprehensive model of calculating national power a solution of one
big problem in political geography. He believes that since power is among the notions
that cannot be evaluated directly, then calculation of power of countries has turned into a
major setback. 91F
1
Joseph Frankle is among the people who believe that power cannot be exactly
measured. According to him: “one of the theories that obscures the notion of “power” in
international relations, is the idea that power is completely measurable because some
tasks as counting the armed soldiers, capacity of warships, capability of alloy industry
that serves the demands of war can be increased and compared. Power of the
government encompasses a number of important factors that are usually referred to as
the capabilities. However, these factors do not explain the reason power can be
completed. The fact that some of these factors can be considered in regard to their
quantity, should not give us the impression that power can be measured. Analysis of the
1-Taylor. peter, op cit , p.29
performance of governments provides a better notion of their power in comparison to
statistical data. 92F
1
Richard muir another political geographician, regard all the attempts to measure
national power as indicative of a positivist approach in its best and believe: “power
cannot be measured exactly because power with regard to the enemies and in regard to
the expansion of other variables such as location in which power is being imposed, is a
relative phenomenon. For instance, in the post-war years the enforcement of power of
the US gained that country much more success in the central and south America rather
than in the Middle East….in addition, any hypothesis that such obscure or unstable
factors as spirit, national determination, nationalism, or temporary factors such as the
quality of leadership can be decreased to mathematic value is indefensible and baseless.
93F
2
Francis baken is among those who consider the evaluation of national power almost
impossible and even a mistake. He states: “the size of a country in regard to expansion of
the land can be measured and the income and possessions of that country are calculable.
Population can be determined by collecting statistics and the number or the size of cities
can be gained by using maps and cards. In spite of all these, nothing is more wrong than
the idea that an exact evaluation or a proper judgment about power and the forces of a
country are possible
Seifzadeh believes that calculation of the physical capabilities of a nation cannot be
indicative of the power of that country and thus those capabilities and abilities that deal
with quality, such as psychology and determination, must be considered as well as the
resources and the hardware. It is usually said that the power of a nation is the
combination of the capabilities of that nation. However, this definition cannot express
the gist of the matter. Although power always encompasses some abilities but it includes
other dimensions as well. Although the capabilities of a nation are measurable, power
includes some psychological capabilities and requirements. The discussion about
1-Frankel. op.cit , p.44 2-Muir. op.cit ,P. 273
psychology of power is very complicated and sensitive because it largely depends on the
images different nations hold in regard to one another. In other words, measurement of
physical capabilities of a nation cannot indicate its power and psychology and
determination must be regarded as much as resources and the hardware. 94F
1
Jeffrey Heart: “in spite of the possibility of analysis of the quantity factors of power
such as GDP, number of military forces, the quality factors of power such as leadership,
ideology, political legitimacy are not easy to measure”. 95F
2
Afshordi, too, believes that it is difficult to evaluate national power due to its quality
nature and active nature of some factors of power. He says: “determining the national
power of countries is not a simple task. Material and spiritual factors with potential
forms affect the formation of national power of a country, however, in most cases it is
not possible to give them quantity and compare them with one another. The nature of the
factors forming national power is in a way that some are quality, some are active, and
some data cannot be measured. These features make it difficult to exactly evaluate the
national power of countries. 96F
3
In contrast, some other scholars consider studying this issue a waste of time and a
vain attempt. Prescott, a scholar in the field of political geography, is among these
people. He believes: attempts for measuring the national power of a country is a vain
attempt that was performed in the previous decades and fortunately scientists of our era
do not waste their time with such issues. 97F
4
Some have also warned that the methods of measuring power can lead us to some
errors. For instance, Hans Morgenthau has warned that single-variable approaches
should be avoided in calculating national power and extra attention must not be paid to
1-Seifzadeh. (1995), op. cit, p.140 2-Jeffrey .Hart, Three Approaches to the Measurement of power in international Relation .International Organization ; No.30,1976,p.300 3-Mohammad Hossein. Afshordi, Geopolitics of the Caucasus and the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of iran,Tehran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 2002, p.237 4-JR,V. Prescott, New approach in political geography, Translated by Doreh Mirhydar, Tehran University,1972,p. 52
each of the factors when measuring national power. 98F
1 Moreover, Muir emphasizes that
geographical factors influence the power of a country and warns us not to express
something that reminds us of environmental fatalism or raw geopolitics. 99F
2 H& M. Spravt
are among those who warn against evaluation of national power or in their viewpoint
“analysis of capabilities”. According to them: “it is nonsense to speak of capabilities in
abstract. Capability always means the ability of performing a task or creating or
continuing the conditions. Political hypotheses might remain implied. However, since
some aims and tools have not been predicted, no calculation is possible. Having access
to some natural factors is not important at all…the data related to physical geography
does not have political significance in nature. This also applied to the data regarding
population, technology, economy or environment. These factors have political
significance only when they are related to a series of hypotheses on the following issues:
what is supposed to be performed, what are the means, when and where it is to be
performed and against which enemies, friends, or audience. 100F
3
Some reasons have been the cause of not being able to design an extensive national power
plan by scientists,for example:
Power is a term which is integrated with qualitative variables and indexes and
measuring of them are difficult Variables which can be quantified are crucially affected by those which cannot; for
example ,it is a simple matter to add up the population or numbers of fighter aircraft
which a state possesses, but so far impossible to gain an accurate measure of the morale,
aptitudes or national character of the population or the deployment and effectiveness of
the fighters in changing and unforeseen situation. 101F
4
Because national power and Its indexes are in different areas ,so accessing a
counterbalanced quantitative pattern and determining their quantitative co-efficient is