Is the climate changing? The way you present the data affects your judgment Chris Goodall At Magdalen College School, Oxford March 2010
Aug 04, 2015
Is the climate changing?
The way you present the data affects your judgment
Chris Goodall
At Magdalen College School, Oxford
March 2010
Oxford 1971–2000 averages
Oxford (63 m AMSL)
Max Temp Min TempDays of Air Frost
Sunshine RainfallDays ofRainfall≥ 1mm
Wind at 10 m
Month [°C] [°C] [days] [hours] [mm] [days] [knots]
Jan 7.2 1.9 8.8 58.0 57.5 11.5 N/A
Feb 7.6 1.7 8.5 72.0 42.6 9.2 N/A
Mar 10.3 3.4 4.0 107.9 50.0 10.5 N/A
Apr 12.8 4.7 2.1 150.0 46.2 8.7 N/A
May 16.5 7.5 0.2 191.9 53.9 9.1 N/A
Jun 19.5 10.5 0.0 187.8 54.5 8.7 N/A
Jul 22.3 12.8 0.0 205.5 38.2 6.7 N/A
Aug 21.9 12.6 0.0 193.8 54.4 7.8 N/A
Sep 18.6 10.5 0.0 138.6 58.9 9.1 N/A
Oct 14.4 7.4 0.7 108.2 61.8 10.6 N/A
Nov 10.1 4.3 4.5 72.0 59.4 10.1 N/A
Dec 8.0 2.8 7.3 51.8 64.7 10.9 N/A
Year 14.1 6.7 36.1 1537.4 642.0 112.9 N/A
Source: Met Office
Average
OxfordLocation: 4509E 2072N, 63 metres amslEstimated data is marked with a * after the value.Missing data (more than 2 days missing in month) is marked by --
Sunshine data taken from an automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor markedwith a #, otherwise sunshine data taken from a Campbell Stokesrecorder.yyyy mm tmax tmin af rain sun
degC degC day mm hours
1853 1 8.4 2.7 4 62.8 ---1853 2 3.2 -1.8 19 29.3 ---1853 3 7.7 -0.6 20 25.9 ---1853 4 12.6 4.5 0 60.1 ---1853 5 16.8 6.1 0 59.5 ---1853 6 20.1 10.7 0 82.0 ---1853 7 21.2 12.2 0 86.2 ---1853 8 20.2 10.8 0 72.3 ---1853 9 17.3 8.4 0 51.3 ---1853 10 13.9 7.4 0 102.3 ---1853 11 8.7 2.3 10 49.6 ---1853 12 3.7 -1.3 19 10.7 ---1854 1 6.7 1.5 11 54.5 ---1854 2 8.0 0.6 12 22.6 ---1854 3 11.2 2.2 8 10.6 ---1854 4 15.0 3.5 2 19.9 ---
Source: Met Office
Source data available online
0
5
10
15
20
25
1961-1991
1971-2000
2009
Oxford average daily maximum temperatures for three periods
Source: Met Office
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1961-1991
1971-2000
2009
Oxford average daily minimum temperatures for three periods
Source: Met Office
1961-1990 1971-2000 2009
Average daily maximum(degrees Celsius)
Average daily minimum(degrees Celsius)
13.8 14.1 15.2
6.4 6.7 7.0
Summary Oxford data
Source: Met Office
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Number of months in year with over 100mm rainfall
Source: Met Office
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1860 1910 1960 2010
Ten year moving average
Number of months in year with over 100mm rainfall
Source: Met Office
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1860 1910 1960 2010
Ten year moving average
Number of months in year with over 100mm rainfall
Source: Met Office
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1860 1910 1960 2010
Thirty year moving average
Number of months in year with over 100mm rainfall
Source: Met Office
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1860 1910 1960 2010
Thirty year moving average
Number of months in year with over 100mm rainfall
Source: Met Office
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ten year moving average
Number of airfrost days per year
Source: Met Office
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Thirty year moving average
Number of airfrost days per year
Source: Met Office
Thirty year moving average
April airfrost days
0
0.5
11.5
2
2.5
33.5
4
4.5
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Thirty year moving average
Source: Met Office
2020.5
2121.5
2222.5
2323.5
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ten year moving average
Average daily July maximum temperatures
Source: Met Office
2020.5
2121.5
2222.5
2323.5
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ten year moving average
Average daily July maximum temperatures
Source: Met Office
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Twenty year moving average
Average daily July maximum temperatures
Source: Met Office
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Thirty year moving average
Average daily July maximum temperatures
Source: Met Office
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1860 1910 1960 2010
Ten year moving average
Average daily January minimum temperature
Source: Met Office
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1860 1910 1960 2010
Twenty year moving average
Average daily January minimum temperature
Source: Met Office
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Thirty year moving average
Average daily January minimum temperature
Source: Met Office
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Thirty year moving average
Average daily January minimum temperature
What did this chart look like five years ago?
Source: Met Office
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Thirty year moving average
2010
*
Average daily January minimum temperature
And what about this year?
Source: Met Office
1961-1990 1971-2000 2009
Average daily maximum(degrees Celsius)
Average daily minimum(degrees Celsius)
13.8 14.1 15.2
6.4 6.7 7.0
Summary Oxford data
Source: Met Office