McMaster Centre for Climate Change Annual Progress Report 2016 Burke Science Building, Room 323 McMaster University 1280 Main Street West Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1 Ph: 905-525-9140 ext. 23313 | E-mail: [email protected]Web: climate.mcmaster.ca Twitter: @MAC_Climate | Facebook: McMasterClimateCentre
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McMaster Centre for Climate Change · McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016 5 About Us The mission of the McMaster Centre for Climate Change (MCCC) is to promote and
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ABOUT US .................................................................................................................................................................. 5
OUR TEAM ................................................................................................................................................................. 5
GRANTS AND AWARDS ....................................................................................................................................... 6
PROMOTING RESEARCH AND COLLABORATIONS .................................................................................. 8
Seed Research Grant Program .............................................................................................................................. 8
Other Research Activities .................................................................................................................................... 12
Fall Public Lecture ................................................................................................................................................ 31
Collabrative Seminars and Events: .................................................................................................................... 33
COMMUNITY OUTREACH ................................................................................................................................. 35
High School Outreach .......................................................................................................................................... 35
Learn CC Initiative ............................................................................................................................................... 36
McMaster’s Water Week ..................................................................................................................................... 36
iClimate - Video Competition ............................................................................................................................. 37
MAC green/ GEC Engineering Conference ...................................................................................................... 38
Mapping the Global Dimensions of Policy - Student Conference ................................................................. 38
iSci Class Field Trip to Turkey Point Flux Station ........................................................................................... 39
MCCC MEMBERS IN THE NEWS ...................................................................................................................... 40
MCCC PLANS FOR THE NEXT YEAR ............................................................................................................... 42
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Our Sponsors
This project is funded in part by the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Blue Water Initiative,
made possible by a generous gift from the RBC Foundation.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Executive Summary
We would like to thank Climate Centre members for their support and collaboration
throughout 2016. The past year has been very productive and successful.
We enhanced our research activities and collaborations amongst the Centre members,
by awarding two Research Seed Grants with the help of the McMaster Office of the Vice
President for Research and International Affairs. We will continue with Seed Grant
support in 2017 and will hold a competition to award three Travel Grants. We also
support our graduate students through the iClimate initiative, for which students, both
graduate and undergraduate, create and present short videos about their research,
which in-turn can be used for public outreach.
The Centre hosted the Big Ideas Better Cities - Low Carbon Climate Resilient Cities
Symposium on 19 April 2016. This full day event was a part of Big Ideas, Better Cities
Initiative and series of events showcasing how McMaster research can help cities
respond to 21st century challenges. Minister of Environment and Climate Change
Ontario, Honourable Glen Murray was the keynote speaker, who was introduced by
McMaster President Dr. Patrick Deane. Mayor of Burlington, Mr. Rick Goldring was
among the inaugural speakers. Symposium speakers and participants discussed the
challenges cities are facing due to environmental changes, and the opportunities
available to advance climate resilient solutions that can help mitigate and adapt to
climate change in order to make our cities more healthy and livable.
The Centre organized two well attended public lectures, one in June and the other in
October. Our Fall public lecture focused on the risks of floods in Southern Ontario and
across Canada. It included a panel discusson highlighting urban flooding and drainage
issues and understanding Canadian households and business decision making in high
flood risk areas. We co-sponsored a number of important academic events, such as the
McMaster Water Week, Social Science Global Dimensions of Policy 5 Conference, MAC
green and GEC engineering conference. We also collaborated with the United Nations
University, Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) in their Water
and Climate Dialogue Lecture Series.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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The Centre continued high school outreach activities where McMaster graduate and
undergraduate students showcase their work and engage with grade 11-12 students in
local high schools. With the help of a McMaster FWI grant, the Centre established a
high school weather station network in the Hamilton-Burlington region, which includes
four weather stations installed at Brebeuf, Bishop Tonnos, Sir John A Macdonald and
Westmount high schools. This Weather Network will have great potential to facilitate a
number of hands-on activities for the local high school students and contribute to the
understanding of local weather conditions and climate change impacts.
We collaborated with the City of Hamilton to promote environment and climate related
knowledge and encourage collaborative city and community actions, as conceived
under the Hamilton Community Climate Action Plan. The Centre also collaborated in
the Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) activities, where McMaster is among key
partner universities supporting OCC.
Once again, we are very grateful to the RBC Foundation, McMaster Office of the Vice
President, Research and Faculty of Science for their support and generous funding. We
thank the School of Geography and Earth Sciences for housing us and managing our
expenses and budget. We are grateful to all for these supports.
We look forward to the new year and will continue to foster our Centre’s growth
through collaborations and joint initiatives. Thank you.
M. Altaf Arain
(The Centre Director)
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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About Us
The mission of the McMaster Centre for Climate Change (MCCC) is to promote and
facilitate education, research, and interdisciplinary collaborations, with a focus on
climate change impacts on water resources, environment, ecosystems and human
health. The Centre promotes multidisciplinary research by bringing together the
expertise of researchers from different McMaster Faculties, including Faculties of
Science, Engineering, Social Science, Health Sciences and Business and external
collaborators as listed in the Partners section.
The Centre researchers focus on seven different theme areas, which include:
1) Ecosystem impacts and adaptations
2) Water resources and hydroclimate
3) Paleoclimate and isotopes
4) Infrastructure impacts
5) Physical climate and modelling
6) Human health and societal impacts
7) Remediation, resilience and public policy
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Our Team
Members of the Centre include faculty, government scientists, postdoctoral fellows,
graduate and undergraduate students, who promote and conduct research on topics
related to the Centre's mission and objectives. In total, 24 faculty members from
McMaster Faculties of Science, Engineering, Social Science and Health Sciences have
been associated with the Centre.
Since 2010, the Centre has trained 4 Postdoctoral fellows, 12 Doctoral, 25 Masters and 5
Undergraduate students as well as many student volunteers. Two international
scientists also visited the Centre from Nigeria and Germany.
Grants and Awards
Since 2010, the Centre associated faculty members secured $4.75 million research grants
and $14,400 outreach grants from Tri-Council agencies, $15,000 from McMaster
Forward with Integrity (3 grants), $15,000 from Mitacs for a postdoctoral fellowship,
$17,500 from Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) for a PhD student and $24,000 grant
from NSERC Engage Program.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Our Partners
The Centre actively collaborates with FloodNet, McMaster Water Network, Ontario
Climate Consortium (OCC), McMaster Sustainability Office, Institute on Globalization
and the Human Condition, McMaster Institute of Environment and Health, McMaster
Institute for Energy Studies, McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics, ESRI
Development Centre, the Dofasco Centre for Engineering and Public Policy, and
SHARCNET and the United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment and
Health (UNU-INWEH). The Centre is also involved in activities of the recently funded
Global Water Future initiative, where McMaster University is among the four core
participating universities.
The Centre has established partnerships with numerous government and industrial
organizations, such as the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Environment Canada
(EC), Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), Ontario Ministry
of Environment and Climate Change (OMECC), City of Hamilton, City of Burlington,
Hamilton Conservation Authority, Sustainable Hamilton Burlington, Green Venture,
Environment Hamilton, Clear Air Hamilton, Climate Change Champions, Plug and
Drive Ontario, The James Hutton Institute, UK and Ameriflux and Global Fluxnet
initiatives.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Promoting Research and
Collaborations
Seed Research Grant Program
The purpose of this grant is to initiate new research opportunities by helping the Centre
members leverage funding for new research initiatives related to environment, water
and climate and graduate student recruitment. This grant was possible thanks to
support from McMaster’s VP-Research. The Centre offered two research grants (each
$7,000 per year for two years over 2025-2016 period) under Seed Grant Program to
associated faculty members. Details of these projects are given below:
(i) Effect of projected climate change on the hibernation habitat of
species at risk (Emydoidea blandingii, Sistrurus catenatus): Implications
for conservation management
Alanna Smolarz and Mike Waddington (PI)
The objective of this project is to assess the vulnerability of reptile species at risk habitat
to projected climate change. The unique set of conditions required by the Massasauga
Rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus), is key to their winter survival. This North American
species is listed as threatened. In Canada, it is only found in
Ontario with populations concentrated around the Great
Lakes. This species is threatened by human persecution, road
mortality and habitat loss of critical hibernation sites.
Therefore, it is important we understand how vulnerable their
current habitat is to climate disturbance to minimize impacts
on their habitat. Through the assessment of both the thermal
and moisture dynamics, we can understand what site traits
influence snake overwintering success. Furthermore, the
vulnerability of these traits to climate-mediated disturbances
(e.g., drought, flooding, snowfall), can be determined
including implications this has for improving conservation
management strategies.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Thanks to the MCCC SEED grant we have continued to foster collaborations with the
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Wildlife Preservation Canada, and Magnetawan
First Nations. These valuable partnerships have strengthened the link between our
research goals and allowed us to fill gaps in ongoing studies. Through our partners, we
have also been permitted access to known rattlesnake hibernation sites north of Parry
Sound. (We are unable to share the exact location of these sites in order to protect the
population of rattlesnakes against poachers and public persecution). Previous knowledge
of snake populations at these locations suggested they
hibernated in hummocks, made entirely of Sphagnum moss.
Likely due to their location above the water table and ability
to buffer against the advancing frost line, hummocks
provided a suitable “survival zone”. To identify the extent of
this area in the hummocks, the sites were instrumented in
2015 with micrometeorological towers and numerous soil
moisture and temperature profiles. In order to capture water
level changes within the hibernation site, we also installed
several groundwater wells with level loggers. Since its
instrumentation, several field visits have occurred every
three to four weeks in the winter to download the data
collected, monitor the status of all instruments, and conduct
snow surveys.
Using data collected thus far, we are assessing the probability of snake mortality in
various sized hummocks. Lab experiments to determine the moisture retention, mineral
content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity properties of the hummocks is ongoing.
These results will be used with numerical modelling to assess expected changes to frost
depth and water table variability under various climate scenarios.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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(ii) Will Southern Ontario fish adapt to climate change?
Graham Scott (PI)
The primary objective of this project is to evaluate the capacity of Southern Ontario fish
to adapt to two major stressors associated with climate change in aquatic ecosystems –
warming temperature and oxygen deprivation. The MCCC Seed Grant has supported
research that would not have otherwise been possible, carried out by graduate student
Sherry Du (who is supported by the seed grant) and others, and we have made a
number of key findings in the project so far.
The effects of warming temperatures and oxygen deprivation on metabolism
We have found that fish become more susceptible to a reduction in oxygen in their
environment (‘hypoxia’) when temperatures rise. Temperature increases their metabolic
rate, it reduces the time they can tolerate
hypoxia, and it leads to a collapse of
aerobic scope (their scope to increase
metabolism to support locomotion,
routine behaviour, predator avoidance,
etc.) at higher water O2 levels. In
addition, we have shown that this
interaction between temperature and
dissolved O2 differs between species.
Pumpkinseed sunfish are particularly
susceptible to warming temperatures compared to some other closely related southern
Ontario fish species. We have also made additional physiological, morphological, and
biochemical measurements to understand the mechanisms underlying the differences
between species. This work is now published (Borowiec et al. 2016). We are planning a
new series of experiments this summer to further understand the mechanistic
underpinnings of climate change adaptation and how it relates to tolerance of hypoxia
and other stressors.
Mitochondrial underpinnings of interactions between temperature and hypoxia
We have also explored the role of mitochondria – the powerhouses of our cells involved
in energy production – in how fish respond to warming temperature and hypoxia. We
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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have found that temperature increases mitochondrial respiration and affects the
sensitivity of mitochondria to hypoxia, such that temperature effects on mitochondrial
function can explain some of the variation in whole-animal function that we observed
above. We have also found that species differ in other aspects of mitochondrial
function, specifically the production of reactive oxygen species. However, species
differences in mitochondrial function could not account for the species differences in
hypoxia sensitivity at the whole-animal level. This work has been written up for
publication by Sherry Du. It has been submitted and has received favourable reviews at
the journal Evolution (Du et al. 2017, submitted).
Anthropogenic stressors in Hamilton Harbour and Cootes Paradise Marsh:
interactions between temperature stress and contaminants
Over the last two years, we have also been examining the effects of wastewater effluent
on fish health and physiology. This collaborative project with Sigal Balshine (PNB) was
funded by NSERC and RBC Blue Water, and is partnered with the City of Hamilton, the
Royal Botanical Gardens, and the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans. The
work involved fieldwork in Cootes Paradise marsh near the Dundas wastewater
treatment plant (WWTP), and has elucidated a variety of adverse impacts of wastewater
exposure (McCallum et al. 2017; Du et al. 2017). However, we recently also made the
surprising finding that fish were actually more abundant near the WWTP. The reasons
for this curious finding are not entirely clear, but we anticipate that it may occur
because summer temperatures in the marsh are warming and fish are seeking the cooler
oxygenated water emitted from the WWTP. This work is now being prepared for
publication. Therefore, it is likely that there are complex trade-offs between the effects
of rising summer water temperatures (associated with climate change), reductions in
dissolved oxygen levels, and contaminant stress that influences fish movement, health,
and fitness. Our ongoing work is exploring the implications of the interactions between
anthropogenic stressors associated with climate change and aquatic pollution. The
MCCC Seed Grant provided valuable support to this work, by supporting graduate
student Sherry Du and providing fundamental information about how warming
temperature and oxygen deprivation impacts native fish species.
Du, S.N.N., F. Khajali, N.J. Dawson, and G.R. Scott. 2017. Hybridization increases
mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species in sunfish. Evolution. Submitted
January 5, 2017 (Ms. ID. 17-0008).
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Other Research Activities
(1) Impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on
managed conifer and deciduous forests in Ontario
M. Altaf Arain (PI)
The main objective of this project is (a) to better understand the ability of Ontario’s
managed forest ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2 and their potential response
and adaptability to future climate change and extreme weather events and (b) to
conduct hydrological studies to explore how changes in precipitation pattern and water
balance, due to climate change would affect growth of forests in the region. This work
also contributes to the development of next generation of ecosystem and hydrologic
models. Projects includes an age-sequence of conifer forests (77, 42, and 16-year old pine
stands) and a >80-year old deciduous forest, near Lake Erie in Southern Ontario, known
as Turkey Point Flux Station (TPFS). Progress made on specific project objectives is
described below.
(i) Energy, Water and Carbon Cycling Studies:
Measurements of energy, water vapour and
carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes were
continuously made at all four sites using
closed-path eddy covariance (EC) system
throughout the year, 2016. These forests sites
are managed and afforested stands and are
among very few chronosequence studies in
the Ameriflux and global Fluxnet initiatives.
Meteorological variables including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and
direction, radiation were measured at all four sites. Precipitation, both rainfall and
snowfall accumulation was measured at the Delta Waterfowl Conservation Centre in an
open area, about ~2 km north east of 77-year-old site and at an open area within the
deciduous forest. Water table was continuously measured at 77-year old site. The flux
and meteorological data were checked and quality controlled manually and using an
automated software and averaged at half hourly intervals.
Soil CO2 efflux measurements were also continuously made using automatic chamber
systems at the 77-year-old site and deciduous site (model Li-8100A, LiCor Inc) for
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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extended growing season from May to November. A mobile chamber system (model Li-
6400, LiCor Inc.) was used to measure soil CO2 emissions along two transects at the
deciduous site.
Biometric variables (e.g tree height, stem diameter, litterfall) were measured in the 3
National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots at all four sites at the end of growing season.
These measurements were made at 3 additional sites at the 77-year-old site because it
was thinned in 2012 (i.e. 3 reference and 3 control plots).
These year-round measurement of CO2, water vapour and energy fluxes and biometric
data not only help to estimate annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and
evapotranspiration values, but they also help to determine the response of these
managed forests to seasonal and annual climate variability and extreme weather events.
(ii) Variable Density Thinning (VDT) study:
In 2016, we have continued our investigation of
the impact of different forest management regimes
on the growth, health, resilience and carbon
sequestration and water cycling capabilities of
managed forests, using 21 one-hectare plots with
33% and 55% aggregate and dispersed canopy
cover at our 77-year old forest. This Variable
Density Thinning (VDT) experiment was initiated
in autumn 2013 by the Ontario Ministry of Natural
Resources and Forestry (Dr. Bill Parker) in
collaboration with partner organizations,
including McMaster. Graduate and
undergraduate students ran field campaigns and
measured tree diameters along diagonal transects
in thinned and control plots in late autumn. Soil
CO2 emissions along these transects were also
samples. This work will enable us to study the
impact of forest restoration practices and
structural diversity to improve forest ecosystem
stability and resilience and their impact on
catchment water resources.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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(iii) Trace gas measurements
Greenhouse gas concentration measurements (CO2, CH4, CO) were continuously made
through the year using Picarro gas analyzer on top of 36 m high walk-up scaffolding
flux tower at our deciduous forest site. These measurements were initiated by the
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (Dr. Doug Worthy’s group at
Downsview, Toronto) in 2013. These data are used to provide background information
on greenhouse gas transport from USA into Canada. Data measured at our site is
valuable because of its southern most locations near the US-Canada border in Long
Point region.
This project continues to be a great opportunity for undergraduate student involvement
in field work and exposing them to practical side and importance of forest ecosystems
and their impact of water and carbon cycling in southern Ontario and well as
community and public outreach activities.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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(2) Thematic Program on Multiscale Scientific Computing: From
Quantum Physics and Chemistry to Material Science and Fluid
Mechanics.
Nicholas Kevlahan (PI)
Dr. Kevlahan co-organized this program at the Fields Institute Jan-April 2016. The
objective of this thematic program is to bring together prominent researchers
(mathematicians as well as computational and application scientists) from across the
globe who have contributed to the development of relevant computational methods and
those who have pioneered their innovative use to address some of the fundamental
problems in the following application domains:
theoretical fluid mechanics
quantum physics and chemistry
multiscale physical phenomena
Four workshops, one seminar and two public lectures were hosted in this program.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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(3) McMaster Campus Weather Station
We continued to maintain the McMaster
Campus weather station for teaching,
research and community outreach activities.
The weather data is displayed through a
website in real time in SGES and Faculty of
Science websites. The measured data is
archived on the Science Server and is
available to the public through the weather
station website and through the Centre
website. The data is also used in many
undergraduate courses (e.g. Envir and Earth
Sc 2C03 and 4C03 courses) and by the
McMaster Facilities Services and Engineering Center for Experiential Learning (EcCEL).
Many other universities, organizations and citizens also use it for various purposes.
(4) Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) activities
The Centre collaborated in the Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) activities. McMaster
is among partner universities supporting OCC. The mission of the OCC is to help
public and private sector decision makers with regionally-specific environmental data,
intelligence and adaptation services that enable effective policy and investment
responses to climate uncertainty in Ontario.
(5) The City of Hamilton Engagements
The centre collaborated with the City of Hamilton to promote environment and climate
related knowledge and encourage collaborative city and community actions, as
conceived under the Hamilton Community Climate Action Plan. The objective of the
community plan is to develop a comprehensive approach for adaptation (resilience) to
climate change and mitigation (reductions) of greenhouse gas emissions from the City.
McMaster Climate Centre Annual Progress Report: 2016
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Peer-Reviewed Publications
Barker, H. W., J. N. S. Cole, J. Li, and K. von Salzen, 2016. A Parametrization of 3D
Subgrid-scale Clouds for Conventional GCMs: Assessment using A-Train
Satellite Data and Solar Radiative Transfer Characteristics. J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst. DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000601.
Borowiec, B.G., K.D. Crans, F. Khajali, N.A. Pranckevicius, A. Young, and G.R. Scott.
2016. Interspecific and environment-induced variation in hypoxia tolerance in
sunfish. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. A. 198, 59-71.
Chen B., Arain M.A, Chen J.M., Croft H., Grant R.F., Kurz W.A., Bernier P., Guindon L.,
Price D., Wang Z., 2016. Evaluating the impacts of climate variability and cutting
and insect defoliation on the historical carbon dynamics of a boreal black spruce
forest landscape in eastern Canada. Ecological Modelling, 321(10): 98-109.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.011.
Devito KJ, Mendoza CA, Petrone RM, Kettridge N, Waddington JM. 2016. Utikuma
Region Study Area (URSA) Part 1: Hydrogeological and ecohydrological studies
(HEAD). The Forestry Chronicle 92: 57-61, doi: 10.5558/tfc2016-017.
Feng, F., Li, X., Yao, Y., Liang, S., Chen, J., Zhao, X., K., J., Pintér, K. and McCaughey,
H., 2016. An Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Algorithm for Estimating
Terrestrial Latent Heat Flux from Eddy Covariance, Meteorological and Satellite
Observations:. PLoS ONE 11(1), doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0160150.
Fisher, J.B., M. Sikka, D.N. Huntzinger, C.R. Schwalm, J. Liu, Y. Wei, R.B. Cook, A.M.
Michalak, K. Schaefer, A.R. Jacobson, M.A. Arain, P. Ciais, B. El-masri, D.J.
Hayes, M. Huang, S. Huang, A. Ito, A.K. Jain, H. Lei, C. Lu, F. Maignan, J. Mao,
N.C. Parazoo, C. Peng, S. Peng, B. Poulter, D.M. Ricciuto, H. Tian, X. Shi, W.
Wang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao, and Q. Zhu. 2016. CMS: Modeled Net Ecosystem
Exchange at 3-hourly Time Steps, 2004-2010. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge,
Tennessee, USA. http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1315.
Fleischer, K., Wårlind D., van der Molen M.K., Rebel K.T., Arneth A., Erisman J.W.,
Wassen M.J., Smith B., Gough C.M., Margolis H. A., Cescatti A., Montagnani L.,
Arain A.,. Dolman A. J., 2015. Low historical nitrogen deposition effect on carbon
sequestration in the boreal zone, Journal of Geophysical Research