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MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE A T THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA (NYSE : SBH) Prepared by J. Wulkan, K. Arora, J. Caiello & G. Wang| Oct. 25, 2013 McIntire Investment Institute 1
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MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

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Page 1: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA

(NYSE : SBH)

Prepared by J. Wulkan, K. Arora, J. Caiello & G. Wang| Oct. 25, 2013

McIntire Investment Institute 1

Page 2: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

“… as I look at other companies in our

universe, I wonder if there’s a macro issue

here, if there’s a low-end customer issue…”

Taposh Bari, Goldman Sachs

McIntire Investment Institute 2

Page 3: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

AGENDA

McIntire Investment Institute 3

Business Overview

Recommendation

Market Misperceptions

Valuation

Risks

Conclusion

Add images of products and of their lines

Page 4: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Largest specialty retailer of beauty products in the U.S. based

on store count and market share

Adds value through unparalleled product selection and unbeatable prices

Retail 3,300 stores, 11 countries

Wholesale 1,200 stores, 1,000 sales consultants

McIntire Investment Institute 4

Page 5: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

SEGMENTAL BREAKDOWN ($MM)

McIntire Investment Institute 5

Hair Products,

58.7%

Skin & nail,

15.7%

Ethnic products,

7.5%

Other, 7.9%

Sales by product category

Electricals,

10.2%

Total 2012 sales: $3,524mm

$2,069 $359

$264 $278

$553 Sally Beauty Supply,

62%

Beauty Supply Group,

38%

Sales by segment

$1,325 $2,198

Page 6: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

RECOMMENDATION

McIntire Investment Institute 6

Both lines of business set to

overcome weaker Q3 results and

beat estimates by 1Q14

Price Target: $36.70

Upside: 38.0%

Misperception: Erosion of customer base /

marketing problems

Reality: Stronger margins due to

secular shifts, product mix

Misperception: No more room for margin

expansion

Reality: Customer base remains strong,

marketing already rectified

Page 7: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Price: $26.60 Avg Vol (3m): 1,794,650 Gross mgn 2012: 49.5%

Market Cap: $4.46B P/E (ttm): 18.23x Operating mgn 2012: 14.2%

52w Range: $22.49 – 31.86 PEG: 1.32x Next earnings: 11/11/13

McIntire Investment Institute 7

3Q earnings

release

Page 8: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

MARKET OVERVIEW

McIntire Investment Institute 8

High

price

Low

price

Boutique

Professional

Page 9: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

MISPERCEPTION: MARKETING PROBLEMS / EROSION OF CUSTOMER BASE

McIntire Investment Institute 9

Page 10: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS

McIntire Investment Institute 10

• Failed tactic

– Went for a broad instead of a

targeted approach

– Marketing strategy strived for

“quantity over quality”

– Looked for higher traffic on

similar marketing expenditure

• July 2013 - reverted back to

original marketing strategy

“The mailers went out to homes with no women in them at all!” Karen Fugate, VP, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations

Broad Marketing

Decreased Store Traffic

Same-Store-Sales Decline

Page 11: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

MARKETING CHANGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN CORRECTED

McIntire Investment Institute 11

• Original / revised tactic

– Targeted mailers to non-Beauty

Club members

– Uses marketing data firm to

gather customer information

– Age, gender, magazine

subscriptions, location, and

known shopping habits

– Expect to see these customers in

stores after three to four mailers

“We look for non-Club customers that exhibit similar characteristics as our Beauty Club members.”

Karen Fugate, VP, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations

Page 12: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

CUSTOMER SURVEY SHOWS PRODUCTIVE MARKETING

McIntire Investment Institute 12

Surveyed random sample of 31 Sally Beauty Supply customers during business hours

Asked 3 key questions:

1) Are you a professional or retail customer?

2) Are you a Beauty Club card member?

If yes, are you planning on renewing your Beauty Club membership?

3) If not, how did you hear about Sally?

% Card

members:

48%

(100% of

professionals)

% Retail

shoppers:

84%

% Planning to

renew:

73%

(100% of

professionals)

% Received

mailer:

69%

of non-

members

Page 13: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

PRICES SHOW SBH OPERATES IN DIFFERENT SEGMENT TO ULTA

McIntire Investment Institute 13

SBH

Warehouse store platform

Focus on private label and generic

Professional Customers

ULTA

Retail store platform

Focus on third party brands

Boutique Customers

CHI Infra

Shampoo

$1.13 / oz

GVP Moisture

Shampoo

$0.42 / oz

Comparable Shampoos

Page 14: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

SURVEY OF WEBSITES CONFIRMS DIFFERENT PRICING STRATEGIES

McIntire Investment Institute 14

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

SBH ULTA

Shampoo

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

SBH ULTA

Hair color

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

SBH ULTA

Hair styling (spray, gel, oil)

$1.99/oz

$0.14/oz

$3.38/oz

$1.05/oz

$34.50/oz

$4.99/oz $10.99/oz

$0.75/oz

$6.43/oz

$2.35/oz

$11.76/oz

$1.00/oz

Surveyed random basket of products from each company’s website

Looked at range of prices ($/oz) for both ULTA and SBH across three key product categories

Page 15: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

IN-STORE SNAPSHOT PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE

McIntire Investment Institute 15

Sally Beauty Supply Ulta Beauty

Takeaway: ULTA is not taking SBH customers

Page 16: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

MISPERCEPTION: NO MORE ROOM FOR MARGIN EXPANSION

McIntire Investment Institute 16

Page 17: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

HIGHER MARGIN PRIVATE LABEL BECOMES LARGER % OF PRODUCT MIX

McIntire Investment Institute 17

2007 40%

2009 42%

2011 43%

2013 45%

2018 55%

Takeaway:

Higher percentage of private label goods will

drive gross margin expansion

Page 18: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

SECULAR SHIFT TOWARDS BOOTH RENTING BENEFITS SALLY

McIntire Investment Institute 18

According to the 2011 PCR Booth Rental Study, “booth rentals are already prevalent in 35

percent of salons and by 2015, nearly 50 percent of all salons will offer some form of

the booth rental model.”

Comparison of booth renting to traditional commission model

Booth renting Commission / salaried

Style of employment Month-to-month Contracted

Model Equivalent to sole proprietorship Employee of salon

ResponsibilitiesBuy all own supplies, pay monthly

booth fee

Sometimes responsible for some

supplies

CompensationRetains 100% of earnings after rent

and supply expenses

Retains flat percentage of total

revenues generated

Page 19: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

MARKET UNDERESTIMATES SPEED OF SHIFT TOWARDS BOOTH RENTING

McIntire Investment Institute 19

“I think there will be a point when almost no salon owners will use a commission-sharing

model, everyone’s moving towards booth renting.”

Jon Younes, Owner, Jon’s Hair Salon, Williamsburg, VA

# of booth rentals # of commission

Hampton Roads Bay Area Chicago

65% 35% 25% 75% 24% 76%

Takeaway:

Of 275 stylist ads surveyed, 197, or 72% were for booth renters

Page 20: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

BOOTH RENTERS DRIVE SALES CONSULTANT OBSOLESCENCE

McIntire Investment Institute 20

“We do have one salesperson from a distributor who comes to our store,

but nobody really orders their equipment and products that way…”

Shari Calhoun – Owner, Vitalle Ellements Salon, San Francisco, CA

Takeaway:

Continued trends towards

booth renters allow 80bps

operating margin

expansion

*Assumes $75,000 sales

consultant total pay

Page 21: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

INTERNATIONAL MARKET LEADS STRONG GROWTH

McIntire Investment Institute 21

• Double-digit same store growth in Europe vs. 5.2% in U.S.

• Double-digit EBITDA increase in Europe vs. 6.9% for all SBH

• Gross margin expansion from 55.4% to 55.6%

• “….20 basis point increase over last year driven by improvement in Sally

European business…” - Gary G. Winterhalter, CEO

• 688 out of 3,284 total Sally Beauty Supply stores located in

international markets, contributing 22% of net sales of FY2012

• 2/3 are located in Europe

• 1/3 are located in South America

Page 22: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

HISTORICAL NUMBERS CONFIRM SOLID GROWTH STORY

McIntire Investment Institute 22

International store openings as % of total

2010 2011 2012 2013

New stores 108 127 151 165

New int'l stores 36 47 64 80

% int'l 33.3% 37.0% 42.4% 48.5%

Store counts and growth rate by international markets

2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR

France 19 27 35 42 30.3%

Chile 16 22 28 33 27.3%

Canada 45 58 70 81 21.6%

Mexico 85 102 133 149 20.6%

Belgium 28 29 32 34 6.7%

Germany 30 27 30 35 5.3%

Total 223 265 328 374 18.8%

• SBH increasingly focused on international growth

• Strongest focus on Mexico and South America

• Stores in South America have higher margins than U.S. business

• Heavier retail focus than U.S. business

Page 23: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

LOW SATURATION = HUGE OPPORTUNITY

McIntire Investment Institute 23

Takeaway: International markets are far from saturation, and

upscale brand commands higher margins

Chicago Toronto Mexico City London Santiago

Store counts 48 17 29 21 6

Population (mm) 2.7 2.5 8.9 8.2 6.0

Stores per capita 17.7 6.8 3.3 2.6 1.0

Page 24: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

VALUATION MODELS PREDICT OUTPERFORMANCE

McIntire Investment Institute 24

Multiple Methodologies:

• Revenue Build

• Discounted Cash Flow

Analysis

• Sensitivity Analysis

• Trading Comparables

Valuation

• Triangulation

Page 25: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

REVENUES GROWING FASTER THAN COGS = MARGIN EXPANSION

McIntire Investment Institute 25

Revenue build

($mm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR '14-'18

Sally Beauty Supply store count 3,425 3,542 3,658 3,774 3,890 3.2%

Sally Beauty Supply same store growth 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5%

Sally Beauty Supply average sales per store 709 758 812 867 923

Sally Beauty Supply segment revenue 2,428 2,684 2,969 3,271 3,591 10.3%

BSG store count 1,255 1,321 1,386 1,451 1,516 4.8%

BSG same store growth 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%

BSG average sales per store 1,182 1,248 1,311 1,372 1,428

BSG segment revenue 1,483 1,648 1,817 1,990 2,165 9.9%

Total revenue 3,911$ 4,331$ 4,786$ 5,262$ 5,756$ 10.1%

Revenue growth 7.4% 10.7% 10.5% 9.9% 9.4%

COGS build

($mm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR '14-'18

% Private label 47.0% 49.0% 51.0% 53.0% 55.0%

Gross margin - private label 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6%

Cost of goods sold - private label 724 836 961 1,098 1,246 14.6%

% Branded goods 53.0% 51.0% 49.0% 47.0% 45.0%

Gross margin - branded goods 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3%

Cost of goods sold - branded goods 1,237 1,318 1,399 1,475 1,545 5.7%

Total cost of goods sold 1,960$ 2,153$ 2,360$ 2,573$ 2,792$ 9.2%

Gross margin 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5%

Page 26: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

DCF ANALYSIS YIELDS 42% UPSIDE

McIntire Investment Institute 26

Implied share price:

$37.71

Implied upside:

41.7%

SBH - Discounted cash flow model

Historical Projected

($mm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Revenue $3,269.1 $3,523.6 $3,641.6 $3,911.3 $4,331.4 $4,785.9 $5,261.6 $5,756.3

Gross profit 1,594.6 1,743.3 1,809.8 1,950.9 2,178.0 2,426.0 2,688.5 2,964.6

EBIT 448.5 499.4 529.9 575.5 668.9 772.3 870.7 963.5

EBIT * (1-T) 374.1 434.8 502.0 566.0 626.3

Plus: Depreciation & amortization 78.2 84.2 89.5 94.3 111.9

Less: Capital expenditures (95.0) (105.0) (115.0) (125.0) (135.0)

(+) / (-): Changes in net working capital (5.8) (54.7) (59.2) (61.9) (64.4)

Unlevered free cash flow $351.5 $359.3 $417.4 $473.3 $538.8

Discount factor 0.928 0.860 0.798 0.740 0.687

Yearly discounted cash flow $326.0 $309.1 $333.1 $350.3 $369.9

Weighted average cost of capital 7.81%

Terminal growth rate of unlevered FCF 2.00%

Terminal year FCFs $9,458.6

Present value of yearly unlevered FCF 1,688.5

Present value of terminal year FCFs 6,494.3

Enterprise value $8,182.8

Less: Debt, net of cash 1,637.3

Less: Preferred stock and minority interests -

Equity value $6,545.5

Diluted share count (mm) 173.6

Page 27: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SHOWS ASYMMETRIC RISK-RETURN

McIntire Investment Institute 27

Sensitivity analysis of SBH's equity value per share

6.8% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3% 8.8%

3.0% $60.93 $52.70 $45.93 $40.55 $36.18

2.5% $53.67 $47.03 $41.43 $36.89 $33.15

2.0% $47.92 $42.43 $37.71 $33.81 $30.50

1.5% $43.25 $38.62 $34.57 $31.19 $28.33

1.0% $39.39 $35.34 $31.90 $28.93 $26.39

6.8% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3% 8.8%

3.0% 129.1% 98.1% 72.7% 52.4% 36.0%

2.5% 101.8% 76.8% 55.7% 38.7% 24.6%

2.0% 80.2% 59.5% 41.7% 27.1% 14.7%

1.5% 62.6% 45.2% 30.0% 17.3% 6.5%

1.0% 48.1% 32.9% 19.9% 8.7% -0.8%

WACCT

erm

inal

Gro

wth

Rat

e

WACC

Te

rmin

al G

row

th

Rat

e

Page 28: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

COMPS ANALYSIS IMPLIES 29% UPSIDE

McIntire Investment Institute 28

Upside:

$7.75, 29% over current market price

Publicly traded comps valuation 30% 20% 20% 30%

Company Sales ($) / sq ft EV / EBITDA P / E 2012 sales (% 2011)

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SBH) 398.7 10.4 18.2 106%

Ulta, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) 379.7 19.4 42.7 111%

L'Oreal SA (EPA:OR) 428.3 16.3 26.6 106%

Regis Corporation (NYSE:RGS) 265.3 7.3 29.4 97%

Average (ULTA, OR and RGS) 357.8 14.3 32.9 104%

Ratio (ULTA / SBH) 1.1 1.9 2.3 0.96

Ratio (OR / SBH) 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.00

Ratio (RGS / SBH) 1.5 0.7 1.6 1.10

Implied SBH share price (ULTA) 27.93$ 49.52$ 62.30$ 25.52$

Weighted ave. 38.40$

Implied SBH share price (OR) 24.76$ 41.79$ 38.81$ 26.70$

Weighted ave. 31.56$

Implied SBH share price (RGS) 39.98$ 18.62$ 42.94$ 29.33$

Weighted ave. 33.10$

Implied SBH share price (average) 34.35$

Current SBH share price 26.60$

Page 29: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

SBH UNDERVALUED COMPARED TO PEERS

McIntire Investment Institute 29

Current Price

Upside

High: 62.2%

Average: 29.1%

Low: -0.12%

Price as of

10/22/13:

$26.60

Average

Implied Value:

$34.35

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Sales/sqft EV/EBITDA P/E Sales growth

Valuation method

Page 30: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

TRIANGULATION INDICATES 38% UPSIDE

McIntire Investment Institute 30

$25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50

Val

uat

ion

me

tho

d

DCF Analysis (70%)

Comparable Companies (30%)

$26.60 $36.70

Terminal growth rate: 2.5%

WACC: 7.3% Terminal growth rate: 1.5%

WACC: 8.3%

L’Oreal (Body Shop) (OR) Ulta Salon (ULTA)

Page 31: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

PRICE PROJECTION SHOWS STRONG UPSIDE

McIntire Investment Institute 31

One-year stock projection: Sally Beauty Holdings (NYSE : SBH)

$45.87

(72%)

$36.70

(38%)

$29.80

(12%)

Oct ‘13 Apr ‘13

Page 32: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

RISKS: FAILURE TO EXPAND MARGINS AND CORRECT TRAJECTORY

McIntire Investment Institute 32

• Weak rollout of new products

• Failure to revise marketing strategy in time for Holiday Season

• Beauty card renewal rate falls below current 32%

• New store growth plan fails to meet expectations

• Low-end customer base continues to dissolve under pressures from

macro environment

• Failure to change marketing mix to include more private label

products with higher margins

Page 33: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

RECOMMENDATION

McIntire Investment Institute 33

Both lines of business set to

overcome weaker Q3 results and

beat estimates by 1Q14

Price Target: $36.70

Upside: 38.0%

Misperception: Erosion of customer base /

marketing problems

Reality: Stronger margins due to

secular shifts, product mix

Misperception: No more room for margin

expansion

Reality: Customer base remains strong,

marketing already rectified

Page 34: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

APPENDIX: VAR CONTACTS AND QUOTES

McIntire Investment Institute 34

VAR Log

Contact Quotes

Marketing: "Marketing is for attracting non-Beauty Club members…" "Third quarter, we changed marketing technique..

Stopped using Experian-based marketing system… mass marketing with flyers."

Expectations: "It takes 3-4 mailers before potential shopper comes into stores…" "Mailers are successful.." "Old marketing

strategy yields Beauty Club type of customers"

Contracts with distributors: "We don't have contracts with distributors, but we are a significant customer for many of our

suppliers…" "45% of our products are private label…"

International: "Margins are currently lower than in U.S, but we've seen strong margin expansion.." "Shift in Europe towards

buying beauty products from Sally vs. salons." "South American stores are almost 100% retail… margins above country average.."

"Looking at small acquisitions to boost market share..." "Will open 100+ new stores in Mexico, 10-20 in Chile..."

Sharon

Employee - Sally

Beauty Supply

Working at Sally: "I like working here…" "Staffing can be thin at times…but I'm never overrun"

Product mix: "I'd say about 40% generics or private label…" "Hair products are our best sellers..." "Wide range of customers..."

Jon Younes

(757) 220-1010

Owner - Jon's Hair

Salon

Booth renters: "There will be a point where almost no salon owners will use commission-sharing model… It is much easier to

attract high quality employees and it's overall a much better way to operate in this business…" "Booth renters are expected to buy all

their own equipment..." "Every stylist acquires their products how they want. Everyone is their own boss..." "5-6 years ago we used

to use [sales consultants] but now... there's no need to use them"

Shari Calhoun

(408) 369-9622

Owner - Vitalle

Ellements Salon

Industry: "I've been in the industry 35 years, and it's gotten to the point where you have to do booth renting instead of

commissions…" "Especially in California, high rent… it is better to have stable stream of income…"

Sales consultants: "We do have one salesperson from a distributor that comes to our store, but no one really orders their equipment

and products that way..."

Karen Fugate

(940) 297-3877,

VP Strategic

Planning and IR

Page 35: MCINTIRE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE - Gateway · 2013. 11. 13. · POOR MARKETING STRATEGY LEAD TO EARNINGS MISS 10 McIntire Investment Institute • Failed tactic –Went for a broad instead

APPENDIX: VAR CONTACTS AND QUOTES

McIntire Investment Institute 35

VAR Log, continued

Contact Quotes

Alicia

Employee - The

Hair Cuttery

Booth renters: "… more and more of them." "Better for the stylist, but some of us still buy our own products…" "I prefer Sally

Supply over Cosmo and [other beauty store in C'Ville]… It has better prices and I know the people who work there…" "Sally keeps

track of my purchases at the store and can give me tax receipts..." "I've been working here for 16 years..."

Shelly

Customer / Survey

Respondent

Sally store choice: "Convenience is a big factor. They are everywhere. Also, they have really great deals compared to Ulta…" "I

go to Sally when I want to buy a $10 bottle of shampoo. If I want to buy a $30 bottle of shampoo, I go to Ulta. I use them for very

different things." "I plan to renew my Beauty Club membership. There's no reason not to, it is pretty much free."

Jessica

Customer / Survey

Respondent

Mailers: "I've received a few of their mailers now, so I thought I'd come check the store out…" "I've been to Ulta a few times, but

it is too expensive…" "I was surprised at how low the prices were… The shampoos were really affordable"

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APPENDIX: LINE ITEMS

McIntire Investment Institute 36

SBH - Discounted cash flow model

Historical Projected

All numbers in $mm 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Revenue $3,269.1 $3,523.6 $3,641.6 $3,911.3 $4,331.4 $4,785.9 $5,261.6 $5,756.3

% growth 12.1% 7.79% 3.35% 7.41% 10.74% 10.49% 9.94% 9.40%

Cost of revenue 1,674.5 1,780.4 1,831.7 1,960.4 2,153.4 2,359.9 2,573.1 2,791.7

Gross profit 1,594.6 1,743.3 1,809.8 1,950.9 2,178.0 2,426.0 2,688.5 2,964.6

Gross margin 48.8% 49.5% 49.7% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5%

Operating expenses 1,146.1 1,243.9 1,280.0 1,375.4 1,509.1 1,653.7 1,817.7 2,001.1

% of sales 35.1% 35.3% 35.1% 35.2% 34.8% 34.6% 34.5% 34.8%

Operating income 448.5 499.4 529.9 575.5 668.9 772.3 870.7 963.5

Operating margin 13.7% 14.2% 14.6% 14.7% 15.4% 16.1% 16.5% 16.7%

Interest expense 112.5 138.4 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5

Pre-tax income 335.9 360.9 422.4 468.0 561.4 664.8 763.2 856.0

Less taxes @ 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

Net income $218.4 $234.6 $274.5 $304.2 $364.9 $432.1 $496.1 $556.4

EBIT * (1-T) $374.1 $434.8 $502.0 $566.0 $626.3

Plus: Depreciation & amortization 78.2 84.2 89.5 94.3 111.9

Less: Capital expenditures (95.0) (105.0) (115.0) (125.0) (135.0)

(+) / (-): Changes in net working capital (5.8) (54.7) (59.2) (61.9) (64.4)

Unlevered free cash flow $351.5 $359.3 $417.4 $473.3 $538.8

Discount factor 0.928 0.860 0.798 0.740 0.687

Yearly discounted cash flow $326.0 $309.1 $333.1 $350.3 $369.9

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APPENDIX: REVENUE AND COGS BUILDS

McIntire Investment Institute 37

Revenue build

($mm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR '14-'18

Sally Beauty Supply store count 3,425 3,542 3,658 3,774 3,890 3.2%

Sally Beauty Supply same store growth 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5%

Sally Beauty Supply average sales per store 709 758 812 867 923

Sally Beauty Supply segment revenue 2,428 2,684 2,969 3,271 3,591 10.3%

BSG store count 1,255 1,321 1,386 1,451 1,516 4.8%

BSG same store growth 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%

BSG average sales per store 1,182 1,248 1,311 1,372 1,428

BSG segment revenue 1,483 1,648 1,817 1,990 2,165 9.9%

Total revenue 3,911$ 4,331$ 4,786$ 5,262$ 5,756$ 10.1%

Revenue growth 7.4% 10.7% 10.5% 9.9% 9.4%

COGS build

($mm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR '14-'18

% Private label 47.0% 49.0% 51.0% 53.0% 55.0%

Gross margin - private label 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6%

Cost of goods sold - private label 724 836 961 1,098 1,246 14.6%

% Branded goods 53.0% 51.0% 49.0% 47.0% 45.0%

Gross margin - branded goods 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3%

Cost of goods sold - branded goods 1,237 1,318 1,399 1,475 1,545 5.7%

Total cost of goods sold 1,960$ 2,153$ 2,360$ 2,573$ 2,792$ 9.2%

Gross margin 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5%

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APPENDIX: SG&A BUILD, WACC, AND SHARE COUNT CALCULATION

McIntire Investment Institute 38

SG&A build

Metric 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR '14-'18

SG&A (% of sales), before consultant reduction 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5%

SG&A ($000s), before consultant reduction 1,310 1,451 1,603 1,763 1,928 10.1%

# of sales consultants 870 696 522 522 522

Total cost, sales consultants 65,250 52,200 39,150 39,150 39,150

Savings, sales consultant reduction 13,050 26,100 39,150 39,150 39,150

SG&A ($000s), after consultant reduction 1,297$ 1,425$ 1,564$ 1,723$ 1,889$ 9.9%

SGA % sales 33.2% 32.9% 32.7% 32.8% 32.8%

WACC calculation

WACC calculation Source

Terminal growth rate 2.0% Best practices

Total debt 1,613,248$ 2Q13 10Q

Total equity 4,470,000 Market cap

% debt 26.5%

% equity 73.5%

Before-tax cost of debt 6.3%

Tax rate 35%

After-tax cost of debt 4.1%

Risk free rate (U.S. 10-yr) 2.5% Bloomberg

Market risk premium 5.7% Damadoran

Beta 1.16 Bloomberg, Yahoo, Google

Cost of equity 9.2%

Bloomberg WACC 6.6% Bloomberg

WACC 7.81%

Diluted share count

Numbers in '000s

Basic shares outstanding ('000s) 167,424

Stock options 11,143

Weighted average exercise price 12.66$

Proceeds from exercise 141,070$

Stock repurchased 5,303

Net stock issued from exercise of options 5,840

Restricted stock units 332

Diluted shares outstanding ('000s) 173,596