McGhee: California's Diverse Demographics and Geography · 2020-03-10 · California’s Diverse Demographics and Geography CRC Applicant Review Panel training ... age, race/ethnicity,

California’s Diverse Demographics and GeographyCRC Applicant Review Panel training

Eric McGhee

August 29, 2019

Outline

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Sources of data Demographic trends and patterns Commission 2011

Outline

3

Sources of data– Decennial censuses– Population estimates and projections– Survey data– Administrative data and other sources– Errors in the data

Demographic trends and patterns Commission 2011

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Decennial census purpose

5

Why take a census?– Apportion the House of Representatives– Determine political districts– Disburse funds for programs (more than $400 billion in federal

funds every year)– Develop a portrait of our nation

Decennial census goals and methods

6

The 2020 Census– Goal: Count everyone once, only once, and in the right place– One person reports for everyone else in the household– Questionnaire: Just a few questions (name, age, race/ethnicity,

gender, own/rent, relationships within household)– Citizenship question controversy

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Population estimates and projections

8

Estimates are historical population figures Projections are future population figures Produced by the US Census Bureau and the California

Department of Finance Estimates are based on decennial census counts updated with

recent administrative data Projections are based on assumptions about future fertility,

mortality, and migration rates

Latest population estimates match closely

9

Source: Department of Finance

35000

35500

36000

36500

37000

37500

38000

38500

39000

39500

40000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Popu

latio

n (1

000s

)

DOF

Census Bureau

Projections for California sometimes diverge

10

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

USC 2012

DOF 2016

UVA 2018

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Two primary surveys of the U.S. population

12

Both surveys conducted by the Census Bureau Current Population Survey

– Monthly survey– Focus on labor market

American Community Survey (ACS)

What is the ACS?

13

Monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau Annually samples about 3 million households Items covered are similar to those of the long-form

questionnaire of the 2000 decennial census Replaced the long form of the census starting in 2010

Topics Covered

14

Demographic characteristics

Income and employment

Transportation

Education

Origins and languages

Migration

Disability and caregivers

Housing: Physical characteristics

Housing: Financial characteristics

Advantages of the ACS

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Large sample relative to the Current Population Survey– 3 million versus 60,000 households

Timely data relative to the decennial census Lots of topics covered—great portrait of the nation on many

dimensions

Limitations of the ACS

16

Not a count of the population Small sample relative to the decennial census

– Census long-form went to one in six households– ACS goes to one in forty

A moving average rather than a point in time Estimates for census tracts and block groups will be based on

five year periods Can’t be used for redistricting Still pegged to the census estimates

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Administrative and other sources of demographic and housing data

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California Statewide Database (UC Berkeley)– Voter registration– Election outcomes

California Department of Education– School demographics– School test scores

California Employment Development Department– Unemployment rates– Occupations

Private sources

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California tends to have high net undercount rates

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1990– CA: -2.7%– US: -1.6%

2000– CA: -0.1% (one of only 10 states)– US: +0.5%

2010– CA: -0.26%– US: +0.01%

Undercounts vary by county

21

2.31.9

2.6

1

1.9

3

1.2

3.5

0.7

3

0.9 0.8

1.6 1.7

0.5

5.7

2

10.1

3.1

10.2

4.8

1.5 1.5

3

1.32

3.1

0.9

1.91.2

1.81.4

2.5

1.7

0.3

6.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010

Net

und

erco

unt (

x100

0)

Source: US Census Bureau

Concerns about a 2020 Census undercount

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Funding challenges General distrust that depresses response rates First-time Internet survey More aggressive administrative matching Non-citizen distrust

Many apply more to California than other states

What should we do about a bad Census?

23

Department of Finance estimates Post-Enumeration Survey and demographic analysis

Should the state adjust for the sake of redistricting?

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Sources of data Demographic trends and patterns

– Overall change– Racial and ethnic change– Geographic change

Commission 2011

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Commission 2011

California still has a large and growing population

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Populations in thousands 1900-2018

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Comparisons of population change 1950=100

30

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Mexico California United States

Source: US Census Bureau

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Commission 2011

California Population by Race/Ethnicity1970-2018

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Source: United States Census Bureau, decennial censuses and American Community Survey

78 67

57 47

42 37

12

19

26

30 37 39

3 7 10

12 13 15

7 8 7 6

6 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Mulitracial

African American

Asian/Other

Hispanic

White

Ethnic Majorities by Census Tract, 2010

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Los Angeles Area

San Francisco Bay Area

50% or greater Native American

50% or greater African American

50% or greater Asian

50% or greater Hispanic

50% or greater non-Hispanic White

Percent foreign born population 1880-2017

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Perc

ent r

esid

ents

who

are

fore

ign

born

California Rest of the United States

Latin America is the leading source of immigrants

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Source: 2017 American Community Survey

Latin America 5,327,000 (50%)Asia 4,261,000 (40%)Europe 639,000 (6%)Africa 181,000 (2%)Canada 128,000 (1%)Oceania 96,000 (1%)

California immigrants come from dozens of countries

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Mexico Iran Thailand Pakistan Cuba Burma Belize Jordan

China Taiwan Russia Iraq Argentina Romania Ireland Saudi Arabia

Philippines Canada Nicaragua Colombia Israel Ethiopia Tukey Sweden

Vietnam Japan Honduras Indonesia Lebanon Nigeria Chile Nepal

India Hong Kong England Brazil Afghanistan Ecuador Malaysia Costa Rica

El Salvador Germany Cambodia France Italy Poland Spain Greece

Korea Peru Ukraine Egypt Portugal Australia Bangladesh Sri Lanka

Guatemala Armenia Laos Fiji Syria Netherlands Jamaica Hungary

Latinos have become the single largest ethnic group

37Source: CA Department of Finance

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

White

Latino

AsianAmericanAfricanAmerican

Young Californians are much more diverse

38Source: American Community Survey

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Under 5years

5 to 9years

10 to 14years

15 to 17years

18 and19 years

20 to 24years

25 to 29years

30 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 to 74years

75 to 84years

85 yearsand over

Other

Multiracial

African American

Asian

Latino

White

California Population by Age, 2017

39

Source: American Communities Survey

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

California’s diversity is not represented among its voters

40

58

19

13

6

3

Likely voters

21

57

18

3

1

Not registered to vote

White

Latino

Asian

Black

Other

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey

Voters have different opinions than non-voters

41

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

All adults

Notregistered

to vote

Likelyvoters

Percent saying bigger government and more services

"If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?"

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey

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Commission 2011

Population deviations: US Congressional districts

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Population deviation

-1% or less

0

1% or greater

Population deviations: California Senate districts

44


-1% or less

0

1% or greater

Population deviations: California Assembly districts

45


-1% or less

0

1% or greater

Population deviations are smaller so far this cycle

46

Source: American Community Survey

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Commission 2011

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– Mandated goals– Aspirational goals

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The CRC districts had to meet several goals

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Equal population Compliant with Voting Rights Act Geographically contiguous, compact, and respectful of

communities with common interests Nested: two state assembly districts in each state senate district Not skewed by party or incumbent favoritism

VRA: new plans improved Latino, Asian-American representation

53

2001 Plan 2011 Draft Plan 2011 Final PlanAfrican-American 0 0 0Latino 18 19 26Asian-American 0 0 1

Majority-minority districts by plan

Cities: modest decline in split cities

54

2001 Plan 2011 Draft Plan 2011 Final PlanAssembly 11% 8% 8%Senate 4% 6% 4%Congress 6% 12% 9%

Share of cities split between districts

Counties: decline in split counties for Senate

55

2001 Plan 2011 Draft Plan 2011 Final PlanAssembly 27 27 28Senate 25 26 20Congress 24 27 25

Number of counties split between districts

Compactness: districts became far less convoluted

56

2001 Plan 2011 Draft Plan 2011 Final PlanAssembly 0.20 0.25 0.26Senate 0.12 0.21 0.23Congress 0.13 0.23 0.23

Average district compactness (Polsby-Popper)

Nesting: some remaining improvement after dramatic change

57

2001 Plan 2011 Draft Plan 2011 Final PlanAverage number of Assembly districtsper Senate district

6.35 2.95 4.95

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Fair and competitive plans were hoped for but not required

59

Fairness to the major parties– No large gaps between the overall number of votes and seats won

Competitive races in most or all districts– 45%–55% vote share for each major-party candidate

Partisan fairness: Efficiency gap trends over time are noisy

60


61


62

Competition: CRC assembly districts are consistently more competitive than the districts drawn in 2001

63

Competition: CRC senate districts are consistently more competitive

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Competition: CRC congressional districts are consistently more competitive

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California’s Diverse Demographics and GeographyCRC Applicant Review Panel training

Eric McGhee

August 29, 2019

Notes on the use of these slides

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These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:

Eric McGhee ([email protected]; 415-291-4439)

Thank you for your interest in this work.

McGhee: California's Diverse Demographics and Geography · 2020-03-10 · California’s Diverse Demographics and Geography CRC Applicant Review Panel training ... age, race/ethnicity,

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