Mba Presentation

Is there a deficiency or is there a demand?

Demographics, density, & housing in Wisconsin

(With a comparison of Milwaukee and other communities)

Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD

Wisconsin vs. United States

▪ 2005 Population▫ Wisconsin 5,536,201 (1.9%)▫ United States 296,410,404

▪ Population Growth Rate▫ Wisconsin 3.2%▫ United States 5.3%

▪ White Population▫ Wisconsin 90.2%▫ United States 80.4%

▪ Hispanic Population▫ Wisconsin 4.3%▫ United States 14.1%


Wisconsin vs. United States

▪ Home Ownership▫ Wisconsin 68.4%▫ United States 66.2%

▪ Housing in Multi-Unit Structures▫ Wisconsin 26.2%▫ United States 26.4%

▪ Median Value (2000)▫ Wisconsin $112,200▫ United States $119,600

▪ Median Household Income (2003)▫ Wisconsin $46,538▫ United States $43,318


Wisconsin’s Projected Growth

▪ Population▫ 5.56 million (2005)▫ 6.42 million (2030)▫ 850,000 increase▫ 2/3 organic growth

▪ Households▫ 2.19 million (2005)▫ 2.67 million (2030)▫ 477,000 increase▫ 19,100 annually

Wisconsin's Population

55

63

89

6

64

15

92

3

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Number of Households

26676882190210

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


Future Population Profile

▪ Older (and younger)▪ More racially diverse

▫ 87.3% to 82.2% White, Non-Hispanic

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2025

Racial Composition

NativeAmerican

Asian

Hispanic

Black

Non-HispanicWhite

Householders by Age Group

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

15-24 25-34 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+


Wisconsin Building Permits

▪ 2005 Statistics▫ 35,513 total units▫ 73.6% single-family structures▫ 4.8% two-unit structures▫ 2.9% three- and four-unit structures▫ 18.7% five or more unit structures

Residential Building Permits

34

19

2

37

77

3

38

25

3

41

13

9

40

17

8

35

51

3

24

05

6

25

39

7

26

12

7

28

99

9

29

90

2

26

14

5

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5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

All Permits Single Family Permits


Wisconsin Metropolitan Areas

▪ 22,441 permits in metropolitan counties (63.2%)▪ 13,072 permits in non-metropolitan counties (36.8%)

Building Permits in Metropolitan Areas (2005)

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2,000

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6,000

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SE Wisconsin Building Permits

▪ Waukesha 14,220▪ Milwaukee 11,287▪ Kenosha 7,080 ▪ Washington 6,629

▪ Racine 6,088

▪ Walworth 5,972

▪ Ozaukee3,123

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Residential Building Permits by County - Southeastern Wisconsin

Waukesha

Washington

Walworth

Racine

Ozaukee

Milwaukee

Kenosha


2007 Forecast (Money Magazine)

▪ All of the state’s metropolitan areas will continue to see an increase in home values

▪ Growth is slowing

5-Year Average Change Median MarketMetropolitan Area Change Change Last Year Home Value ForecastWausau 32.5% 5.8% 7.0% $123,227 3.6%Green Bay 28.7% 5.2% 5.8% $151,000 3.4%Appleton 27.9% 5.0% 6.9% $129,000 3.1%Fond du Lac 24.7% 4.5% 4.0% $126,326 2.8%Sheboygan 28.4% 5.1% 8.6% $121,678 2.7%Janesville 28.5% 5.2% 7.5% $129,675 2.6%Eau Claire 31.5% 5.6% 6.7% $123,608 2.3%La Crosse 34.5% 6.1% 7.5% $115,469 2.1%Madison 41.0% 7.1% 8.4% $225,000 2.0%Racine 46.0% 7.9% 11.7% $125,665 1.8%Milwaukee 44.1% 7.6% 9.3% $212,000 1.3%

Change in Home Values by Market - Wisconsin


2007 Forecast (Money Magazine)

▪ The slowdown is everywhere▪ Milwaukee is slower than most▪ US average forecast is 3.5% growth

5-Year Average Change Median MarketMetropolitan Area Change Change Last Year Home Value ForecastSalt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CT 29.5% 5.3% 13.8% $182,000 7.6%Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 58.5% 9.7% 20.7% $265,000 7.5%San Fransisco, CA 46.7% 8.0% 12.8% $835,000 6.3%Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 91.3% 13.9% 22.8% $221,000 5.4%San Antonio, TX 31.6% 5.7% 10.2% $137,000 5.0%Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 25.5% 4.7% 3.1% $142,000 4.0%Austin-Round Rock, TX 18.5% 3.5% 7.0% $167,000 3.7%Indianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 19.6% 3.6% 4.9% $122,000 3.6%Chicago, IL 54.7% 9.1% 10.4% $274,000 3.4%GrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI 23.5% 4.3% 4.1% $135,000 3.3%Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 20.8% 3.9% 3.2% $172,000 2.8%Minneapolis, MN 51.5% 8.7% 5.4% $240,000 1.9%Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI 44.1% 7.6% 9.3% $212,000 1.3%Denver-Aurora, CO 20.7% 3.8% 3.9% $262,000 1.1%Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 116.3% 16.7% 10.4% $319,000 -3.4%

Change in Home Values by Market - Selected Metropolitan Areas


Housing Affordability

▪ The Midwest is the most affordable region in the US▪ The Milwaukee market is still affordable

Metropolitan Area Affordability National Rank Income Home PriceIndianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 90.1 5 $65,100 $113,000GrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI 83.6 19 $61,500 $127,000Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 76.0 36 $57,400 $114,000Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 71.8 41 $64,400 $150,000Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI 71.3 44 $66,800 $156,000Minneapolis, MN 63.0 60 $78,500 $230,000Denver-Aurora, CO 62.4 63 $71,300 $221,000San Antonio, TX 59.6 68 $53,100 $143,000Austin-Round Rock, TX 58.3 73 $69,600 $197,000Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 52.6 87 $60,300 $200,000Chicago, IL 51.3 90 $72,100 $241,000Salt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CT 50.1 95 $61,300 $223,000Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 42.5 109 $66,900 $250,000Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 19.4 150 $58,200 $298,000San Fransisco, CA 7.8 169 $91,200 $745,000

Housing Affordability for Selected Metropolitan Areas

Affordability = % of homes sold that families earning the median metropolitan income can afford to purchase180 Metropolitan Areas


Population Density

▪ Density per square mile of land area▪ Based on county area measurement▪ More similar to older communities than to the

recognized leaders in growth management

Metropolitan Area Population Housing Density Metropolitan AreaChicago, IL 8,272,768 701 San Fransisco, CAMinneapolis, MN 2,968,806 619 Chicago, ILPittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,358,695 424 Milwaukee-Waukesha, WIPortland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 2,265,223 282 Salt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CTDenver-Aurora, CO 2,109,282 264 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NCSan Fransisco, CA 1,731,183 228 Denver-Aurora, COIndianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 1,607,486 226 Pittsburgh-New Castle, PASan Antonio, TX 1,592,383 208 Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OHVirginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1,569,541 193 Indianapolic-Anderson-Columbus, INLas Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 1,563,282 193 Minneapolis, MNColumbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 1,540,157 180 San Antonio, TXMilwaukee-Waukesha, WI 1,500,741 153 GrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MISalt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CT 1,333,914 132 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WAAustin-Round Rock, TX 1,249,763 125 Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Columbia, TNNashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Columbia, TN 1,231,311 117 Austin-Round Rock, TXGrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI 1,088,514 17 Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV

Population and Housing Density per Square Mile for Selected Metropolitan Areas


What have we built alike?

▪ Denver’s urban core



▪ Milwaukee’s urban core



▪ Denver suburbs



▪ Milwaukee suburbs


What might we build?

▪ Traditional Neighborhood Development▫ Few examples in

Wisconsin▫ Madison – Milwaukee


Traditional Neighborhoods

▪ Compact▪ Mixed-use▪ Walkable


Conservation Development

▪ Preserve open space▪ Infrastructure costs▪ Sustainable practices▪ Density bonuses


Cottage Housing

▪ Small units▪ Green space▪ Good design ▪ Young market


True Mixed Use

▪ Commercial – Residential – Industrial – Live/Work


Questions

▪ How will the demand for housing change as our population changes?

▪ Are we offering the housing options desired by the market?

▪ Are alternative approaches to housing not common because they are not wanted;or if they were built, would they sell?

▪ Do we simply like our detached homes on large lots too much to change?

▪ Do we need to change?▪ Are we creating workforce housing?

Mba Presentation

Real Estate

white population wisconsin

hispanic population

wisconsin metropolitan

states metropolitan

housing change

population density density

population changes

housing affordability