May 5, 2010 Prepared By: Dan Catlett National Hurricane Program Manager

An Explanation of the Comprehensive Emergency Management System

and the role of Social Science

in Developing Performance Measures to Achieve the Homeland Security Mission

May 5, 2010Prepared By: Dan Catlett National Hurricane Program Manager

“Reduce the loss of life and property and protect the Nation from all hazards, including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man-made disasters, by leading and supporting the Nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery, and mitigation.”

-- Both PKEMRA and The FEMA Strategic Plan (February 2008)

The Statutory FEMA Mission: Increase the Nation’s “Resilience” by Leading and Supporting the

“Comprehensive Emergency Management System”

“FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards”

-- W. Craig Fugate, Administrator (6/17/09)

The New FEMA Mission: Support our Citizens and First Responders to “Build, Sustain and Improve our Capability.”

“(T)he governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.”-- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295)

“Emergency Management” PKEMRA Definition:

“The term ‘capability’ means the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks under specific conditions and to specific performance standards. A capability may be achieved with any combination of properly planned, organized, equipped, trained, and exercised personnel that achieves the intended outcome.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295)

PKEMRA Definition: “Capability”

Capability is the Operational Capacity (“the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks”) to manage the consequences or Risk from a hazard or threat (“under specific conditions”) to satisfy prevailing Expectations or performance standards (“to specific performance standards.”)

An alternative, Simplified Definition of Emergency Management “Capability”:

The “Capability Formula”

EMC = OC – (R+X)Emergency Management

Capability equals

Operational Capacityminus the sum of

Risk plus Expectations

Definition of Terms:• Operational Capacity = Personnel, Equipment,

Facilities, Systems, Processes, Preparations, and the Readiness to use them.

• Risk = Hazard (or “Threat”) x Vulnerability x Consequences (Note: This Goes A Step Beyond Traditional “Hazard Identification/Risk Assessment” or “HIRA”)

• Expectations (or “Expectations Risk”)= – Internal: Employee and partner attitudes, beliefs and

“conventional wisdom,” etc.); – External: Legislative priorities, academic, media

“spin” and public perceptions, etc.; and– Formal: Measurable Strategic Outcomes and Outputs

Challenge #1:“Capability” cannot be effectively determined without a standardized

determinations of Capacity, Risk or Expectations.”Consequently

“Capacity” often gets measured, then labeled “Capability.”

Challenge # 2:

Unity of Effort is the product of

Unity of Purpose; A Common Operating Picture is the

product of a

Common Planning Picture.

BOTHUnity of Purpose

And a Common Planning Picture.

are dependent on a common, consensus standards for assessing

Capacity, Risk and Expectations-based

Capability

The Solution:Standardized assessments of

Capacity, Risk and Expectations – included the development of a

“planning level event” – to create consistent planning assumptions (NOT planning formats/guidelines such as the TCL, the IPS, etc.) for the Comprehensive Emergency

Management System

PRE-

Even

tThe “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System”

-- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1])

POST

-Eve

nt

Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R)

MITIGATEPREPARE

RECOVER PROTECT

RESPOND

BUILD CAPABILITY“Operational Readiness”

DEPLOY CAPABILITY“Operational Response”

EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT

Strategy Development &

Process Planning

(RE)ASSESSMENTS: Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations

PRE-

Even

tThe “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System”

-- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1])

POST

-Eve

nt

Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R)

MITIGATEPREPARE

RECOVER PROTECT

RESPOND

BUILD CAPABILITY:“Operational Readiness”

Unity of PURPOSECommon PLANNING Picture

DEPLOY CAPABILITY“Operational Response”

Unity of EFFORTCommon OPERATING Picture

EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT

Strategy Development &

Process Planning

(RE)ASSESSMENTS: Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations

PRE-

Even

tPO

ST-E

vent

Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R)

Supplement Operational Capacity via Response & Recovery Operations, such as

Mutual Aid, State Declaration, EMAC, and federal declaration (Stafford Act) through full National

Response Framework utilization .

Increase Operational Effectiveness via traditional "Preparedness Cycle” Activities such

as: Analyzing, Assessing, Planning, Training, Staffing, Equipping, etc.

BUILD CAPABILITY“Operational Readiness”

EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT

PROTECT

RESPOND

Permanently Reduce Risk from future events via traditional Mitigation measures such as: Land

Use and Building Regulation, Structural Retrofit, permanent risk reduction projects, etc.

MITIGATEPREPARE

RECOVER

Temporarily Reduce Risk in response to a present threat via “Protective Actions” – Population Protection (i.e. evacuation, sheltering, SAR, etc.) as well as temporary risk reduction measures (shutters,

sandbags, levee fortification, etc.)

DEPLOY CAPABILITY“Operational Response”

Strategy Development & Process Planning

(RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk &

Expectations

(RE)ASSESSMENTS: Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations

SE

SE E

S

- TIME +

- CAPABILITY +S

E

= STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

= EXERCISE OR EVENT

PRE-EVENTREADINESS

POST-EVENTOPERATIONS

“SYSTEMATIC” CAPABILITY-BUILDING OVER TIME

SE

SE E

S

- TIME +

- CAPABILITY +S

E

= STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

= EXERCISE OR EVENT

PRE-EVENTREADINESS

POST-EVENTOPERATIONS

“MULTI-HAZARD/EVENT” CAPABILITY-BUILDING

SE

SE

SSE

SE

SS

ES

ES

SE

SE E

S

- TIME +

- CAPABILITY +S

E

= STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

= EXERCISE OR EVENT

PRE-EVENTREADINESS

POST-EVENTOPERATIONS

“SYSTEMATIC” CAPABILITY-BUILDING OVER TIME

SE

SEKatrina

S

- TIME +

CAPABILITY +S

E = EXERCISE OR EVENT

PRE-EVENT

POST-EVENT

-

= STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

SE

SEKatrina

S

- TIME +

S

E = EXERCISE OR EVENT

PRE-EVENT

POST-EVENT

= STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

CAPABILITY +

PKEMRA

-

PRE-

Even

tThe Resilience Cycle

POST

-Eve

nt

RESPONDTo Emergency

and Crisis Conditions

RECOVERCommunity

Functionality & Self-Sufficiency

Build, Sustain or Improve

READINESS

Build, Sustain or Improve

RESISTANCE

INCIDENT or EVENT

ADAPTTo “New Normal”

Strategy Development &

Process Planning

WITHSTANDThe Impact

Operations

Build Resilience Through Preparedness

Achieve Resilience Through Operations

PRE-

Even

tThe Resilience Cycle

POST

-Eve

nt

RESPONDTo Emergency

and Crisis Conditions

RECOVERCommunity

Functionality and Self-Sufficiency

Build, Sustain or Improve

PREPAREDNESS

Reduce Risk through MITIGATION

INCIDENT or EVENT

ADAPTTo The

“New Normal”

Strategy Development &

Process Planning

PROTECTAgainst The

Impact

Operations

Build Resilience Through Preparedness

Achieve Resilience Through Operations

RESPONDPROTECTRECOVER

DEPLOY CAPABILITY

BUILD CAPABILITY

SE

PREPARE MITIGATE

The “Resilience Formula”

Resilience (Z)equals

Time To New NormalDivided by the

Event

Z = TTNN ÷ E

RESPONSE

RECOVERY

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and “Resilience”