May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 1 4/ Examples of PDF Uncertainty
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 2
Estimate the uncertainty on the predicted cross section for ppbar W+X at the Tevatron collider.
global 2
local 2’s
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 3
Each experiment defines a “prediction” and a “range”.This figure shows the 2 = 1 ranges.
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 4
This figure shows broader ranges for each experiment based on the “90% confidence level” (cumulative distribution function of the rescaled 2).
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 5
The final result is an uncertainty range for the prediction of W.
Survey of wBlpredictions (by R. Thorne) …
PDF set energy swBln [nb] PDF uncert
Alekhin Tevatron 2.73 0.05
MRST2002 Tevatron 2.59 0.03
CTEQ6 Tevatron 2.54 0.10
Alekhin LHC 21.5 0.6
MRST2002 LHC 20.4 0.4
CTEQ6 LHC 20.5 0.8
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 6
Inclusive W production at the Tevatron, Run 2(K factor for NNLO/NLO = 1.037 has been applied)
Red: 1 + 40 e.v. basis sets Blue: full uncertainty range 2.63 0.09 nbOrange: MRST prediction 2.690.11 nbGreen: Latest CDF value 2.7800.0140.0600.167 nbPurple: Latest D0 value 2.8650.0080.0750.186 nb
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 7
Red: 1 + 40 e.v. basis setsPurple: Full uncertainty range (error ellipse)Blue: Uncorrelated ranges, roughly 3% each
The error ellipse for W and Z production at the Tevatron, Run 2
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 8
Error ellipse for W and Z production at the LHC
Red: 1 + 40 e.v. basis setsBlue: uncorrelated rangesPurple: Full uncertainty range(error ellipse)
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 9
W production at the LHC is sensitive to the gluon distribution function.
Tevatron: W production can occur by a LO process with valence quarks.
LHC: The LO contribution must involve a sea quark; and there is an NLO contribution from a gluon.
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 10
How well can we determine the value of S( MZ ) from Global Analysis?
For each value of S, find the best global fit. Then look at the 2 value for each experiment as a function of S.
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 11
Each experiment defines a “prediction” and a “range”.This figure shows the 2 = 1 ranges.
Particle data group (shaded strip) is 0.1170.002.
The fluctuations are larger than expected for normal statistics. The vertical lines have 2
global=100,s(MZ)=0.11650.0065
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 13
Uncertainties of LHC parton-parton luminosities
212121 dxdxsxxsxfxfCsLum jiji
ij )ˆ()()()ˆ(,
Provides simple estimates of PDF uncertainties at the LHC.
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 14
PDF uncertainty for inclusive jet production at CDF and D0
Run 1 dataCTEQ6.1 – the 40 eigenvector basis sets
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 16
The 40 eigenvector basis sets – used to calculate PDF uncertainty in the Hessian method
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 17
Predictions for Run 2 at CDF and D0
The boundaries are the full uncertainty range from the “Master Formula”.
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 18
CTEQ6.1The u-quark PDf and its full uncertainty band.(This representation is potentially misleading because low-x and high-x are correlated!)
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 21
CTEQ6.1The gluon PDf and its full uncertainty band.(This representation is potentially misleading because low-x and high-x are correlated!)
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 24
Theoretical uncertainties may also be important, but are more difficult to assess.
Parameterization of f(x,Q0) at Q0=1.3 GeV – a nonperturbative function
Higher order QCD corrections ( NNLO perturbation theory)
May 2005 CTEQ Summer School 26
Parton distribution functions are a necessary theoretical infrastructure for hadron colliders.
Tools now exist to assess the PDF uncertainties.
Certain advances will be important for making accurate predictions for the LHC.