Mathias Lerch University of Geneva Institute for demographic and life course studies

How do trends in international migration influence the internal mobility of

foreigners in Switzerland?

Mathias Lerch

University of GenevaInstitute for demographic and life course studies

Introduction

Net internal migration is the major determinant of demographic trends in 80% of the Swiss regions

Immigrants represent a fifth of the 7,7 millions residents and have a higher propensity to migrate internally than natives

Immigrants’ internal mobility constitutes a secondary movement after settlement

>> How do dynamics in immigration affect the redistribution of migrants in Switzerland ?

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1982

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Imm

igra

nts

p.10

00 h

abita

nts

-Ongoing recruitment in IT, SP-2nd oil crisis

-Recruitment in ExY, PT & other-Right for family reunification

-Economic recession-Policy change: selection (based on skills) among non-OCDE nationals-Stabilization of immigrants-Increasing share of family reunifications

-Bilarteral agreement with EU: free movement of people-Selection (based on skill) among non-EU nationals

Swiss population in 2000: 7,7 millions

Swiss immigration regime and context

Spatial inertia of immigrant distribution (2000-4)

Factors of internal mobility, successive immigrant cohorts and generations

Age

…

26 Spatial assimilation

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24

23

22

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…

16

15Period

Immigration

Internal migration

First job, clustering, join

family

Professional adjustement or

mobility

Second generationParental decohabitation, labour market insertion,

family formation

Family formation or reunification

Internal migration

Data

Annual Central Aliens registers (stocks & flows) Deterministic & probabilistic record linkage

(1981-2004) ~1 million individual residential trajectories:

Definitions Immigrant = foreigner, admin. def. of length

of residence (at least one year) 1st generation = granted first permit at age

16 and more Internal migration = change of SM region

(N=106)

End 1981 End 2004

1 Present End obs

2 Present Death

3 Immigration Emigration

4 Present 1st internal mig Emigration

5 Present 1st & 2nd internal mig Naturalisation

6 Immigration 1st mig Emigration

7 Immigration 1st mig End obs

Iterative :

stock’81 to flow’81

to stock’82 to flow’82

…

to stock’04 to flow’04

Methods

Decennial decomposition of crude internal migration rate differentials, measuring the contribution of :

– Changing structure of immigrant population according to length of residence

– Evolutions in duration-specific migration rates

According to nationality

Mapping spatial focus of internal migrants

Recent immigration inflated the mobility of 1st generation stock,

in the early 1990s

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

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1011121314

15+

Decomposition of crude rates differential (+2.9 points)1990-94 - 1982-1984

Structures (26.9%)Behaviours (73.1%)

Leng

ht o

f res

iden

ce (y

ears

)0

1020304050607080

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15+

Duration of residence (years

Mig

ratio

n ra

te (p

.100

0) 1982-841990-942000-04

Lower immigration, but more mobile immigrant cohorts in 2000-4

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

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1011121314

15+

Decomposition of crude rates differential (+3 points)2000-04 - 1990-94

Structures (-28.7%)Behaviours (71.3%)

Leng

th o

f res

iden

ce (y

ears

)

Different immigration regimes according to nationality and internal mobility

IT & SP: less immigration, family reunified, low level of mobility, second generation

Ex-Y: inflation due to numerous arrivals, mainly family members who move less

DE & others: higher inflow recently, highly skilled arrival cohorts, very mobile

Increasing spatial focus of internal migration towards main agglomerations and

their periphery

Migration efficiency

indexg

2nd generation immigrants migrate more than recent immigrants

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49Age

1990-94 1,5G2000-04 1,5G1990-94 2G2000-04 2G

Period & Generation

1 st Generation

Diff

eren

tial m

igra

tion

inde

x

Internal migration of foreigners increased because of quantitative and qualitative dynamics in international immigration (role of migration policy)

Foreigners’ mobility converge to the Swiss’ patterns Internal redistribution sustained structural change in

the Swiss economy, as well as regional economic dynamics

Places facing internal departures of natives and ageing could not entirely retain immigrants from abroad

Conclusion

Thank you for your attention !