Top Banner
Limited Willpower Yusufcan Masatlioglu Daisuke Nakajima Emre Ozdenoren University Michigan Otaru University of Commerce London Business School Dec, 2015 Limited Willpower 1
169

econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

May 29, 2020

Download

Documents

dariahiddleston
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Limited Willpower

Yusufcan Masatlioglu Daisuke Nakajima Emre OzdenorenUniversity Michigan Otaru University of Commerce London Business School

Dec, 2015

Limited Willpower 1

Page 2: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences and Choices

Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choicesthat are different from what they would have chosenaccording to their commitment preferences.Procrastination, impulse purchases, succumbing to thetemptation of unhealthy foods are examples of such behavior.People do not always succumb to temptation and aresometimes able to overcome temptations by using cognitiveresources.This ability is often called willpower.

Limited Willpower 2

Page 3: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences and Choices

Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choicesthat are different from what they would have chosenaccording to their commitment preferences.Procrastination, impulse purchases, succumbing to thetemptation of unhealthy foods are examples of such behavior.People do not always succumb to temptation and aresometimes able to overcome temptations by using cognitiveresources.This ability is often called willpower.

Limited Willpower 2

Page 4: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences and Choices

Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choicesthat are different from what they would have chosenaccording to their commitment preferences.Procrastination, impulse purchases, succumbing to thetemptation of unhealthy foods are examples of such behavior.People do not always succumb to temptation and aresometimes able to overcome temptations by using cognitiveresources.This ability is often called willpower.

Limited Willpower 2

Page 5: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences and Choices

Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choicesthat are different from what they would have chosenaccording to their commitment preferences.Procrastination, impulse purchases, succumbing to thetemptation of unhealthy foods are examples of such behavior.People do not always succumb to temptation and aresometimes able to overcome temptations by using cognitiveresources.This ability is often called willpower.

Limited Willpower 2

Page 6: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Willpower

Psychologists claim that Willpower is

required to suppress and override our visceral urges,more than just a fairy tale or a metaphor,not unlimited resource,the same resource applies to different tasks,

I If you perform a task requiring self-control, it is lesslikely/more difficult to exercise self-control in a different task.Baumeister et al (1994), Baumeister and Vohs (2003),Muraven (2011)

Limited Willpower 3

Page 7: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Psychology Experiments

Stage 1: Experimental subjects are asked to perform a taskof self-regulation (Do not eat cookies, Stroop Test, Do notlook at subtitles). Control subjects do nothing. WillpowerDepletion

Stage 2: The “endurance” of all subjects is measured on anunrelated task (Working on insoluble puzzles, Squeezing handexercisers, Refraining from impulse purchases). LessEndurance

Experimental subjects exhibit MUCH less endurance on stage2 tasks than the controls.

Limited Willpower 4

Page 8: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Related Work

Ozdenoren, Salant, and Silverman (2011)Fudenberg and Levine (2006, 2012)Noor and Takeoka (2010)

Limited Willpower 5

Page 9: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Limited Willpower Model

A choice theoretic foundation for the willpower as a limitedcognitive resource model.

I Provide a simple and tractable model,I Temptation modeled as a constraint,I Identification of one’s willpower and visceral urge intensity,I Using a contracting example demonstrate unique implications

Limited Willpower 6

Page 10: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

The Model

Three components:

u(·) → utilityv(·) → visceral urge intensityw → willpower

Limited Willpower 7

Page 11: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

The Model

Choosing an alternative from set A:

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x)

Limited Willpower 8

Page 12: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

The Model

Choosing an alternative from set A:

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x)

subject to

Limited Willpower 8

Page 13: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

The Model

Choosing an alternative from set A:

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x)

subject to

maxy∈A

v(y)︸ ︷︷ ︸highest

temptation in A

−v(x) ≤ w

Limited Willpower 8

Page 14: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

The Model

Choosing an alternative from set A:

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x)

subject to

maxy∈A

v(y)− v(x)︸ ︷︷ ︸required amount ofwillpower to be ableto choose x from A

≤ w

Limited Willpower 8

Page 15: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

The Model

Choosing an alternative from set A:

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x)

subject to

maxy∈A

v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Limited Willpower 8

Page 16: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustration

c(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3

Limited Willpower 9

Page 17: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustration

c(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3

{gym, book}

Limited Willpower 9

Page 18: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustration

c(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3

c({gym, book}) = gym

Limited Willpower 9

Page 19: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustration

c(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3watching tv 0 5

c({gym, book}) = gym

{gym, book, tv}

Limited Willpower 9

Page 20: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustration

c(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3watching tv 0 5

c({gym, book}) = gym

c({gym, book, tv}) = book

Limited Willpower 9

Page 21: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustration

c(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3watching tv 0 5

c({gym, book}) = gym

c({gym, book, tv}) = book

? Violation of WARP,

Limited Willpower 9

Page 22: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An illustrationc(A) = arg maxx∈A u(x) s.t. maxy∈A v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Example: Assume willpower stock, w = 3,u v

going to gym 10 1reading book 5 3watching tv 0 5

c({gym, book}) = gym

c({gym, book, tv}) = book

? Violation of WARP,? The middle option is chosen, “Compromise Effect”

Limited Willpower 9

Page 23: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Representation

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u(x) subject to maxy∈A

v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Two Extreme Cases

w =∞ (Standard) NEVER give in temptation

w = 0 (Strotz) ALWAYS give in temptation

Limited Willpower 10

Page 24: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Setup

X: a finite set of alternatives.

Two pieces of information: (%, c)I PreferencesI Choices

Limited Willpower 11

Page 25: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Setup

X: a finite set of alternatives.

Two pieces of information: (%, c)I PreferencesI Choices

Question: What class of (%, c) can be explained by the LimitedWillpower model?

Limited Willpower 11

Page 26: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Axioms

Axiom 1: % is complete and transitive.

Axiom 2: If x � c(A ∪ x) then c(A) = c(A ∪ x).

Axiom 3: c(A) % c(B)⇒ c(A) % c(A ∪B) % c(B).

Limited Willpower 12

Page 27: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Axioms

Axiom 1: % is complete and transitive.

Axiom 2: If x � c(A ∪ x) then c(A) = c(A ∪ x).

Axiom 3: c(A) % c(B)⇒ c(A) % c(A ∪B) % c(B).

Limited Willpower 12

Page 28: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Axioms

Axiom 1: % is complete and transitive.

Axiom 2: If x � c(A ∪ x) then c(A) = c(A ∪ x).

Axiom 3: c(A) % c(B)⇒ c(A) % c(A ∪B) % c(B).

Limited Willpower 12

Page 29: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Axioms

Axiom 1: % is complete and transitive.

Axiom 2: If x � c(A ∪ x) then c(A) = c(A ∪ x).

Axiom 3: c(A) % c(B)⇒ c(A) % c(A ∪B) % c(B).

Limited Willpower 12

Page 30: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Choice Betweenness vs. SetBetweenness

Suppose �0 is a preference over non-empty subsets of X.�0 satisfies SB if A �0 B implies A �0 A ∪B �0 B.Consider commitment preferences and second-period choicesimplied by �0.How are SB and CB related?

Limited Willpower 13

Page 31: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Choice Betweenness vs. SetBetweenness

Suppose �0 is a preference over non-empty subsets of X.�0 satisfies SB if A �0 B implies A �0 A ∪B �0 B.Consider commitment preferences and second-period choicesimplied by �0.How are SB and CB related?

Limited Willpower 13

Page 32: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Choice Betweenness vs. SetBetweenness

Suppose �0 is a preference over non-empty subsets of X.�0 satisfies SB if A �0 B implies A �0 A ∪B �0 B.Consider commitment preferences and second-period choicesimplied by �0.How are SB and CB related?

Limited Willpower 13

Page 33: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Choice Betweenness vs. SetBetweenness

Suppose �0 is a preference over non-empty subsets of X.�0 satisfies SB if A �0 B implies A �0 A ∪B �0 B.Consider commitment preferences and second-period choicesimplied by �0.How are SB and CB related?

Limited Willpower 13

Page 34: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

SB but not CB

�0 has a costly self-control representation if represented by

V (A) = maxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x))

Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x)).

If �0 has a costly self-control representation then it satisfiesSB (Noor and Takeoka (2010)) but implied choices violate CBwhen ϕ is concave.Suppose ϕ(a) = a.5, u(x) = 2, u(y) = 1, u(z) = 0, andv(x) = 0, v(y) = 1.5, v(z) = 3. Thenx = c(x, z) = c(x, y, z) � y = c(x, y) � z = c(y, z).

Limited Willpower 14

Page 35: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

SB but not CB

�0 has a costly self-control representation if represented by

V (A) = maxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x))

Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x)).

If �0 has a costly self-control representation then it satisfiesSB (Noor and Takeoka (2010)) but implied choices violate CBwhen ϕ is concave.Suppose ϕ(a) = a.5, u(x) = 2, u(y) = 1, u(z) = 0, andv(x) = 0, v(y) = 1.5, v(z) = 3. Thenx = c(x, z) = c(x, y, z) � y = c(x, y) � z = c(y, z).

Limited Willpower 14

Page 36: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

SB but not CB

�0 has a costly self-control representation if represented by

V (A) = maxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x))

Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x)).

If �0 has a costly self-control representation then it satisfiesSB (Noor and Takeoka (2010)) but implied choices violate CBwhen ϕ is concave.Suppose ϕ(a) = a.5, u(x) = 2, u(y) = 1, u(z) = 0, andv(x) = 0, v(y) = 1.5, v(z) = 3. Thenx = c(x, z) = c(x, y, z) � y = c(x, y) � z = c(y, z).

Limited Willpower 14

Page 37: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

SB but not CB

�0 has a costly self-control representation if represented by

V (A) = maxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x))

Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u(x)− ϕ(maxy∈Av(y)− v(x)).

If �0 has a costly self-control representation then it satisfiesSB (Noor and Takeoka (2010)) but implied choices violate CBwhen ϕ is concave.Suppose ϕ(a) = a.5, u(x) = 2, u(y) = 1, u(z) = 0, andv(x) = 0, v(y) = 1.5, v(z) = 3. Thenx = c(x, z) = c(x, y, z) � y = c(x, y) � z = c(y, z).

Limited Willpower 14

Page 38: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

CB but not SB

Suppose �0 is represented by

W (A) = maxx∈A

u (x)−(

maxy,z∈A,y 6=z

(v (y) + v (z))− v (x))

and for singleton sets W ({x}) = u (x)Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u (x) + v (x) .

(�, c) (trivially) satisfies CB.To see that �0 violates SB, let X = {x, y, z}, u (x) = 7,u (y) = 3, u (z) = 2, v (x) = 0, v (y) = 1 and v (z) = 2.Then, {x, y} �0 {x, z} �0 {x, y, z}.

Limited Willpower 15

Page 39: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

CB but not SB

Suppose �0 is represented by

W (A) = maxx∈A

u (x)−(

maxy,z∈A,y 6=z

(v (y) + v (z))− v (x))

and for singleton sets W ({x}) = u (x)Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u (x) + v (x) .

(�, c) (trivially) satisfies CB.To see that �0 violates SB, let X = {x, y, z}, u (x) = 7,u (y) = 3, u (z) = 2, v (x) = 0, v (y) = 1 and v (z) = 2.Then, {x, y} �0 {x, z} �0 {x, y, z}.

Limited Willpower 15

Page 40: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

CB but not SB

Suppose �0 is represented by

W (A) = maxx∈A

u (x)−(

maxy,z∈A,y 6=z

(v (y) + v (z))− v (x))

and for singleton sets W ({x}) = u (x)Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u (x) + v (x) .

(�, c) (trivially) satisfies CB.To see that �0 violates SB, let X = {x, y, z}, u (x) = 7,u (y) = 3, u (z) = 2, v (x) = 0, v (y) = 1 and v (z) = 2.Then, {x, y} �0 {x, z} �0 {x, y, z}.

Limited Willpower 15

Page 41: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

CB but not SB

Suppose �0 is represented by

W (A) = maxx∈A

u (x)−(

maxy,z∈A,y 6=z

(v (y) + v (z))− v (x))

and for singleton sets W ({x}) = u (x)Implied choices are:

c(A) = argmaxx∈A

u (x) + v (x) .

(�, c) (trivially) satisfies CB.To see that �0 violates SB, let X = {x, y, z}, u (x) = 7,u (y) = 3, u (z) = 2, v (x) = 0, v (y) = 1 and v (z) = 2.Then, {x, y} �0 {x, z} �0 {x, y, z}.

Limited Willpower 15

Page 42: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

A Result

Theorem 0(%, c) satisfies Axioms 1-3 if and only if it admits a generalizedwillpower representation:

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x) s.t. maxy∈A

v(y)− v(x) ≤ w(x)

Limited Willpower 16

Page 43: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 44: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.

If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 45: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.

If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 46: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.

If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 47: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.

If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 48: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.

If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 49: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.

If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 50: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

An Additional Axiom

When is w(x) = w?

Axiom 4 Suppose y � c(y, z) and c(t, z) = t.If x � c(x, y) then c(x, t) = t.

t is more tempting than y,x is not choosable over y,Then x is also not choosable t.

Limited Willpower 17

Page 51: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Desired Result

Theorem 1(%, c) satisfies Axioms 1-4 iff (%, c) admits a Limited Willpowerrepresentation.

c(A) = arg maxx∈A

u(x) s.t. maxy∈A

v(y)− v(x) ≤ w

Limited Willpower 18

Page 52: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparison with Costly SelfControl

When ϕ is linear (model of Gul and Pesendorfer), choicesimplied by the costly self control model satisfy WARP.As in our model, when ϕ not linear, there are WARPviolations.When ϕ is concave, violates CB.When ϕ is convex, satisfies CB, hence special case of thegeneralized willpower model.In the convex case, consistency is violated.

I provides a direct test to separate the two models based only onex-ante preferences and ex-post choices and not on menupreferences.

Limited Willpower 19

Page 53: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparison with Costly SelfControl

When ϕ is linear (model of Gul and Pesendorfer), choicesimplied by the costly self control model satisfy WARP.As in our model, when ϕ not linear, there are WARPviolations.When ϕ is concave, violates CB.When ϕ is convex, satisfies CB, hence special case of thegeneralized willpower model.In the convex case, consistency is violated.

I provides a direct test to separate the two models based only onex-ante preferences and ex-post choices and not on menupreferences.

Limited Willpower 19

Page 54: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparison with Costly SelfControl

When ϕ is linear (model of Gul and Pesendorfer), choicesimplied by the costly self control model satisfy WARP.As in our model, when ϕ not linear, there are WARPviolations.When ϕ is concave, violates CB.When ϕ is convex, satisfies CB, hence special case of thegeneralized willpower model.In the convex case, consistency is violated.

I provides a direct test to separate the two models based only onex-ante preferences and ex-post choices and not on menupreferences.

Limited Willpower 19

Page 55: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparison with Costly SelfControl

When ϕ is linear (model of Gul and Pesendorfer), choicesimplied by the costly self control model satisfy WARP.As in our model, when ϕ not linear, there are WARPviolations.When ϕ is concave, violates CB.When ϕ is convex, satisfies CB, hence special case of thegeneralized willpower model.In the convex case, consistency is violated.

I provides a direct test to separate the two models based only onex-ante preferences and ex-post choices and not on menupreferences.

Limited Willpower 19

Page 56: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparison with Costly SelfControl

When ϕ is linear (model of Gul and Pesendorfer), choicesimplied by the costly self control model satisfy WARP.As in our model, when ϕ not linear, there are WARPviolations.When ϕ is concave, violates CB.When ϕ is convex, satisfies CB, hence special case of thegeneralized willpower model.In the convex case, consistency is violated.

I provides a direct test to separate the two models based only onex-ante preferences and ex-post choices and not on menupreferences.

Limited Willpower 19

Page 57: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparison with Costly SelfControl

When ϕ is linear (model of Gul and Pesendorfer), choicesimplied by the costly self control model satisfy WARP.As in our model, when ϕ not linear, there are WARPviolations.When ϕ is concave, violates CB.When ϕ is convex, satisfies CB, hence special case of thegeneralized willpower model.In the convex case, consistency is violated.

I provides a direct test to separate the two models based only onex-ante preferences and ex-post choices and not on menupreferences.

Limited Willpower 19

Page 58: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Non-Uniqueness

If preferences and choices coincide (c(x, y) = x � y), thenNo self-control problem

I 0 < v(x)− v(y)Self-control problem exists but enough willpower

I 0 < v(y)− v(x) < w

v is not even unique in ordinal sense !!!

Limited Willpower 20

Page 59: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Non-Uniqueness

If preferences and choices coincide (c(x, y) = x � y), thenNo self-control problem

I 0 < v(x)− v(y)Self-control problem exists but enough willpower

I 0 < v(y)− v(x) < w

v is not even unique in ordinal sense !!!

Limited Willpower 20

Page 60: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Non-Uniqueness

If preferences and choices coincide (c(x, y) = x � y), thenNo self-control problem

I 0 < v(x)− v(y)Self-control problem exists but enough willpower

I 0 < v(y)− v(x) < w

v is not even unique in ordinal sense !!!

Limited Willpower 20

Page 61: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Non-Uniqueness

If preferences and choices coincide (c(x, y) = x � y), thenNo self-control problem

I 0 < v(x)− v(y)Self-control problem exists but enough willpower

I 0 < v(y)− v(x) < w

v is not even unique in ordinal sense !!!

Limited Willpower 20

Page 62: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

A richer structure is needed !!!

LOTTERIES

Limited Willpower 21

Page 63: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

A richer structure is needed !!!

LOTTERIES

Limited Willpower 21

Page 64: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Willpower with Lotteries

X: the finite set of potentially available alternatives∆: the set of all lotteries on XX : the set of non-empty finite subsets of ∆%: the preferences on Xc: choices on X

Limited Willpower 22

Page 65: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Linear Limited Willpower

c(A) = argmaxp∈A

u(p)

subject tomaxq∈A

v(q)− v(p) ≤ w

whereu, v are linear functionsw is a positive scalar.

Limited Willpower 23

Page 66: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

New Axioms

Axiom A % admits an expected utility representation.

Axiom B Suppose pn → p and qn → q with pn � qn for all n. Ifc(pn, qn) = pn then p ∈ c(p, q).

Limited Willpower 24

Page 67: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

New Axioms

Independence axiom (adapted to choice correspondences) saysthat y ∈ c(x, y) implies yαz ∈ c(xαz, yαz) where α ∈ [0, 1].Full independence is too strong for the limited willpowermodel.

I Assume u(x) = 1 and u(y) = 0, v(x) = 0 and v(y) = 3, andw = 2.

I v(y)− v(x) = 3 > 2 = w, so c(x, y) = y.I But v(y)− v(x 1

2y) = 12v(y)− 1

2v(x) = 1.5 < 2 = w, andc(x 1

2y, y) = x 12y.

Limited Willpower 25

Page 68: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

New Axioms

Axiom C (Temptation Independence) Let p � q and α ∈ [0, 1].

i) If c(p, q) = p, c(p′, q′) = p′ and p′ % q′, then c(pαp′, qαq′) = pαp′

ii) If c(p, q) = q, c(p′, q′) = q′ and p′ � q′ then c(pαp′, qαq′) = qαq′

Axiom D (Invariance to Replacement) If c(pαr, qαr) = pαr thenc(pαr′, qαr′) = pαr′ for any r′.

Limited Willpower 26

Page 69: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

New Axioms

Axiom E: (Conflict) There exist p and q such that p � c(p, q).

Axiom F: (Limited Agreement) For all p � q, there exists α > 0such that pαq = c(pαq, q).

Limited Willpower 27

Page 70: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

New Axioms

Axiom E: (Conflict) There exist p and q such that p � c(p, q).

Axiom F: (Limited Agreement) For all p � q, there exists α > 0such that pαq = c(pαq, q).

Limited Willpower 27

Page 71: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

New Axioms

Axiom E: (Conflict) There exist p and q such that p � c(p, q).

Axiom F: (Limited Agreement) For all p � q, there exists α > 0such that pαq = c(pαq, q).

Limited Willpower 27

Page 72: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Characterization

Main Result(%, c) satisfies the axioms iff (%, c) admits a linear LimitedWillpower representation with w > 0.

Uniqueness: If (u, v, w) and (u′, v′, w′) represent (%, c) thenthere exist scalars α > 0, α′ > 0, β, β′ such that

u′ = αu+ β, v′ = α′v + β′, w′ = α′w

Limited Willpower 28

Page 73: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Characterization

Main Result(%, c) satisfies the axioms iff (%, c) admits a linear LimitedWillpower representation with w > 0.

Uniqueness: If (u, v, w) and (u′, v′, w′) represent (%, c) thenthere exist scalars α > 0, α′ > 0, β, β′ such that

u′ = αu+ β, v′ = α′v + β′, w′ = α′w

Limited Willpower 28

Page 74: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Can we reveal preferences from choices?

In the standard approach, preferences are revealed by choices.

x � y if x = c(x, y)

In the limited willpower, this is no longer true. It is possible that

x � y and y = c(x, y)

because of limited willpower (v(y)− v(x) > w)

Limited Willpower 29

Page 75: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Can we reveal preferences from choices?

In the standard approach, preferences are revealed by choices.

x � y if x = c(x, y)

In the limited willpower, this is no longer true. It is possible that

x � y and y = c(x, y)

because of limited willpower (v(y)− v(x) > w)

Limited Willpower 29

Page 76: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Can we reveal preferences from choices?

In the standard approach, preferences are revealed by choices.

x � y if x = c(x, y)

In the limited willpower, this is no longer true. It is possible that

x � y and y = c(x, y)

because of limited willpower (v(y)− v(x) > w)

Limited Willpower 29

Page 77: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Take two points x and y, and consider a mixture of them,

If u(x) > u(y) then u(αx+ (1− α)y) > u(y),I Order of utility does not change

v (y)− v(αx+ (1− α)y) = α (v (y)− v (x)),I Self-control problem gets smaller

Limited Willpower 30

Page 78: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Given c, we define revealed preference, �c,

x �c y if one of the following is true

x = c(x, y) and no mixture can reverse the choice,

y = c(x, y) and some mixture can reverse the choice,

Limited Willpower 31

Page 79: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Given c, define �c

x �c y if one of the following is true

x = c(x, y) and @α ∈ (0, 1) such that y ∈ c(xαy, y),y = c(x, y) and ∃α ∈ (0, 1) such that xαy = c(xαy, y).

PropositionIf (%, c) admits a linear willpower representation, then %= %c.

Limited Willpower 32

Page 80: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Preferences from Choices

Given c, define �c

x �c y if one of the following is true

x = c(x, y) and @α ∈ (0, 1) such that y ∈ c(xαy, y),y = c(x, y) and ∃α ∈ (0, 1) such that xαy = c(xαy, y).

PropositionIf (%, c) admits a linear willpower representation, then %= %c.

Limited Willpower 32

Page 81: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Denote choices in the control vs. treatment group by ccont

and ctreat.Assume same commitment preference u.Subject gives into temptation in treatment but not in control:ccont(x, y) = x � ctreat(x, y) = y.One shot can be rationalized by common (u, v) andwcont > wtreat.Suppose ccont(A) % ctreat(A) for all A and the relation isstrict for some A.Not sufficient to conclude that willpower stock is depletedwhen we observe multiple choices.

Limited Willpower 33

Page 82: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Denote choices in the control vs. treatment group by ccont

and ctreat.Assume same commitment preference u.Subject gives into temptation in treatment but not in control:ccont(x, y) = x � ctreat(x, y) = y.One shot can be rationalized by common (u, v) andwcont > wtreat.Suppose ccont(A) % ctreat(A) for all A and the relation isstrict for some A.Not sufficient to conclude that willpower stock is depletedwhen we observe multiple choices.

Limited Willpower 33

Page 83: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Denote choices in the control vs. treatment group by ccont

and ctreat.Assume same commitment preference u.Subject gives into temptation in treatment but not in control:ccont(x, y) = x � ctreat(x, y) = y.One shot can be rationalized by common (u, v) andwcont > wtreat.Suppose ccont(A) % ctreat(A) for all A and the relation isstrict for some A.Not sufficient to conclude that willpower stock is depletedwhen we observe multiple choices.

Limited Willpower 33

Page 84: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Denote choices in the control vs. treatment group by ccont

and ctreat.Assume same commitment preference u.Subject gives into temptation in treatment but not in control:ccont(x, y) = x � ctreat(x, y) = y.One shot can be rationalized by common (u, v) andwcont > wtreat.Suppose ccont(A) % ctreat(A) for all A and the relation isstrict for some A.Not sufficient to conclude that willpower stock is depletedwhen we observe multiple choices.

Limited Willpower 33

Page 85: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Denote choices in the control vs. treatment group by ccont

and ctreat.Assume same commitment preference u.Subject gives into temptation in treatment but not in control:ccont(x, y) = x � ctreat(x, y) = y.One shot can be rationalized by common (u, v) andwcont > wtreat.Suppose ccont(A) % ctreat(A) for all A and the relation isstrict for some A.Not sufficient to conclude that willpower stock is depletedwhen we observe multiple choices.

Limited Willpower 33

Page 86: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Denote choices in the control vs. treatment group by ccont

and ctreat.Assume same commitment preference u.Subject gives into temptation in treatment but not in control:ccont(x, y) = x � ctreat(x, y) = y.One shot can be rationalized by common (u, v) andwcont > wtreat.Suppose ccont(A) % ctreat(A) for all A and the relation isstrict for some A.Not sufficient to conclude that willpower stock is depletedwhen we observe multiple choices.

Limited Willpower 33

Page 87: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Let x � y � z.ccont(x, y) = ccont(x, z) = ccont(x, y, z) = x andccont(y, z) = z.Subject in control gives into temptation only when facing{y, z}.ctreat(x, z) = ctreat(y, z) = ctreat(x, y, z) = z andctreat(x, y) = y.Subject in treatment always gives into temptation.

Limited Willpower 34

Page 88: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Let x � y � z.ccont(x, y) = ccont(x, z) = ccont(x, y, z) = x andccont(y, z) = z.Subject in control gives into temptation only when facing{y, z}.ctreat(x, z) = ctreat(y, z) = ctreat(x, y, z) = z andctreat(x, y) = y.Subject in treatment always gives into temptation.

Limited Willpower 34

Page 89: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Let x � y � z.ccont(x, y) = ccont(x, z) = ccont(x, y, z) = x andccont(y, z) = z.Subject in control gives into temptation only when facing{y, z}.ctreat(x, z) = ctreat(y, z) = ctreat(x, y, z) = z andctreat(x, y) = y.Subject in treatment always gives into temptation.

Limited Willpower 34

Page 90: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Let x � y � z.ccont(x, y) = ccont(x, z) = ccont(x, y, z) = x andccont(y, z) = z.Subject in control gives into temptation only when facing{y, z}.ctreat(x, z) = ctreat(y, z) = ctreat(x, y, z) = z andctreat(x, y) = y.Subject in treatment always gives into temptation.

Limited Willpower 34

Page 91: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Let x � y � z.ccont(x, y) = ccont(x, z) = ccont(x, y, z) = x andccont(y, z) = z.Subject in control gives into temptation only when facing{y, z}.ctreat(x, z) = ctreat(y, z) = ctreat(x, y, z) = z andctreat(x, y) = y.Subject in treatment always gives into temptation.

Limited Willpower 34

Page 92: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Suppose there was a common (u, v) and the willpower levelsare such that wcont > wtreat.Since ccont(x, z) = x and ccont(y, z) = z, v(z)− v(y) > wcont

and v(z)− v(x) < wcont implying v(y) < v(x).Independent of the willpower stock, x should be chosen whenthe feasible set is {x, y}.Contradicts ctreat(x, y) = y.Example shows we need to make sure temptation ranking vthe same in control vs. treatment.

Limited Willpower 35

Page 93: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Suppose there was a common (u, v) and the willpower levelsare such that wcont > wtreat.Since ccont(x, z) = x and ccont(y, z) = z, v(z)− v(y) > wcont

and v(z)− v(x) < wcont implying v(y) < v(x).Independent of the willpower stock, x should be chosen whenthe feasible set is {x, y}.Contradicts ctreat(x, y) = y.Example shows we need to make sure temptation ranking vthe same in control vs. treatment.

Limited Willpower 35

Page 94: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Suppose there was a common (u, v) and the willpower levelsare such that wcont > wtreat.Since ccont(x, z) = x and ccont(y, z) = z, v(z)− v(y) > wcont

and v(z)− v(x) < wcont implying v(y) < v(x).Independent of the willpower stock, x should be chosen whenthe feasible set is {x, y}.Contradicts ctreat(x, y) = y.Example shows we need to make sure temptation ranking vthe same in control vs. treatment.

Limited Willpower 35

Page 95: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Suppose there was a common (u, v) and the willpower levelsare such that wcont > wtreat.Since ccont(x, z) = x and ccont(y, z) = z, v(z)− v(y) > wcont

and v(z)− v(x) < wcont implying v(y) < v(x).Independent of the willpower stock, x should be chosen whenthe feasible set is {x, y}.Contradicts ctreat(x, y) = y.Example shows we need to make sure temptation ranking vthe same in control vs. treatment.

Limited Willpower 35

Page 96: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

Suppose there was a common (u, v) and the willpower levelsare such that wcont > wtreat.Since ccont(x, z) = x and ccont(y, z) = z, v(z)− v(y) > wcont

and v(z)− v(x) < wcont implying v(y) < v(x).Independent of the willpower stock, x should be chosen whenthe feasible set is {x, y}.Contradicts ctreat(x, y) = y.Example shows we need to make sure temptation ranking vthe same in control vs. treatment.

Limited Willpower 35

Page 97: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

How do we catch reversals in v?Suppose p � q, q′ and ccont(p, q) = p and ccont(p, q′) = q′.

I q′ is more tempting then pSuppose treatment is unable to choose p in either case.As β increases pβq and pβq′. become less tempting, andformer always less tempting for same v.Means treatment should never have ctreat(p, pβq) = pβq andctreat(p, pβq′) = p

Limited Willpower 36

Page 98: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

How do we catch reversals in v?Suppose p � q, q′ and ccont(p, q) = p and ccont(p, q′) = q′.

I q′ is more tempting then pSuppose treatment is unable to choose p in either case.As β increases pβq and pβq′. become less tempting, andformer always less tempting for same v.Means treatment should never have ctreat(p, pβq) = pβq andctreat(p, pβq′) = p

Limited Willpower 36

Page 99: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

How do we catch reversals in v?Suppose p � q, q′ and ccont(p, q) = p and ccont(p, q′) = q′.

I q′ is more tempting then pSuppose treatment is unable to choose p in either case.As β increases pβq and pβq′. become less tempting, andformer always less tempting for same v.Means treatment should never have ctreat(p, pβq) = pβq andctreat(p, pβq′) = p

Limited Willpower 36

Page 100: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

How do we catch reversals in v?Suppose p � q, q′ and ccont(p, q) = p and ccont(p, q′) = q′.

I q′ is more tempting then pSuppose treatment is unable to choose p in either case.As β increases pβq and pβq′. become less tempting, andformer always less tempting for same v.Means treatment should never have ctreat(p, pβq) = pβq andctreat(p, pβq′) = p

Limited Willpower 36

Page 101: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

How do we catch reversals in v?Suppose p � q, q′ and ccont(p, q) = p and ccont(p, q′) = q′.

I q′ is more tempting then pSuppose treatment is unable to choose p in either case.As β increases pβq and pβq′. become less tempting, andformer always less tempting for same v.Means treatment should never have ctreat(p, pβq) = pβq andctreat(p, pβq′) = p

Limited Willpower 36

Page 102: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Revisiting Baumeister et. al.

How do we catch reversals in v?Suppose p � q, q′ and ccont(p, q) = p and ccont(p, q′) = q′.

I q′ is more tempting then pSuppose treatment is unable to choose p in either case.As β increases pβq and pβq′. become less tempting, andformer always less tempting for same v.Means treatment should never have ctreat(p, pβq) = pβq andctreat(p, pβq′) = p

Limited Willpower 36

Page 103: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

A monopolist facing a consumer with limited willpower

Examples...Buying a cell-phone plan,Buying a gym-membership,Checking in a hotel,Visiting a dealership or a restaurant,

Limited Willpower 37

Page 104: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

A monopolist facing a consumer with limited willpower

Examples...Buying a cell-phone plan,Buying a gym-membership,Checking in a hotel,Visiting a dealership or a restaurant,

Limited Willpower 37

Page 105: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

A monopolist facing a consumer with limited willpower

Firm offers a set of services (contract),I ps : the price of service s,I c(s): the cost of producing service s,

Firm’s profit selling s is ps − c(s),Consumer can accept or reject it (outside option is 0),If accepted, both parties are committed to the contract,Consumer chooses a service from the contract.

Limited Willpower 38

Page 106: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

Consumer has limited willpower.U and V are quasi-linear in price,

U(s, ps) = u(s)− ps, V (s, ps) = v(s)− ps

Higher price ⇒ Less tempting,Consumer is NAIVE (incorrectly) believes that he hasunlimited willpower

Limited Willpower 39

Page 107: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

Consumer has limited willpower.U and V are quasi-linear in price,

U(s, ps) = u(s)− ps, V (s, ps) = v(s)− ps

Higher price ⇒ Less tempting,Consumer is NAIVE (incorrectly) believes that he hasunlimited willpower

Limited Willpower 39

Page 108: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

Consumer has limited willpower.U and V are quasi-linear in price,

U(s, ps) = u(s)− ps, V (s, ps) = v(s)− ps

Higher price ⇒ Less tempting,Consumer is NAIVE (incorrectly) believes that he hasunlimited willpower

Limited Willpower 39

Page 109: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

Call v − u as Excess TemptationLet y = argmins∈X(v(s)− u(s)) be the service with lowestexcess temptation and Y = v(y)− u(y)Let z = argmaxs∈X(v(s)− u(s)) be the service with highestexcess temptation and Z = v(z)− u(z)Let xu = argmaxs∈X(u(s)− c(s)) andxv = argmaxs∈X(v(s)− c(s)).

Limited Willpower 40

Page 110: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

Call v − u as Excess TemptationLet y = argmins∈X(v(s)− u(s)) be the service with lowestexcess temptation and Y = v(y)− u(y)Let z = argmaxs∈X(v(s)− u(s)) be the service with highestexcess temptation and Z = v(z)− u(z)Let xu = argmaxs∈X(u(s)− c(s)) andxv = argmaxs∈X(v(s)− c(s)).

Limited Willpower 40

Page 111: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Application

Call v − u as Excess TemptationLet y = argmins∈X(v(s)− u(s)) be the service with lowestexcess temptation and Y = v(y)− u(y)Let z = argmaxs∈X(v(s)− u(s)) be the service with highestexcess temptation and Z = v(z)− u(z)Let xu = argmaxs∈X(u(s)− c(s)) andxv = argmaxs∈X(v(s)− c(s)).

Limited Willpower 40

Page 112: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Example

ExampleThere are four possible options: s1, s2, s3, s4.

u v c

s1 4 6 1s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9s4 16 24 16

Limited Willpower 41

Page 113: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Commitment Contract

Suppose the consumer is standard (has unlimited willpower) or isable to commit.

• The firm offers only one option (Commitment Contract)

maxx,p

p− c(x) s.t. u(x)− p ≥ 0

The firm offers xu at price p = u(xu).

Limited Willpower 42

Page 114: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Commitment Contract

Suppose the consumer is standard (has unlimited willpower) or isable to commit.

• The firm offers only one option (Commitment Contract)

maxx,p

p− c(x) s.t. u(x)− p ≥ 0

The firm offers xu at price p = u(xu).

Limited Willpower 42

Page 115: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Commitment Contract

Suppose the consumer is standard (has unlimited willpower) or isable to commit.

• The firm offers only one option (Commitment Contract)

maxx,p

p− c(x) s.t. u(x)− p ≥ 0

The firm offers xu at price p = u(xu).

Limited Willpower 42

Page 116: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Commitment Contract

Suppose the consumer is standard (has unlimited willpower) or isable to commit.

• The firm offers only one option (Commitment Contract)

maxx,p

p− c(x) s.t. u(x)− p ≥ 0

The firm offers xu at price p = u(xu).

Limited Willpower 42

Page 117: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Commitment Contract

u v c u− cs1 4 6 1 3s2 8 12 4 4 ⇐ xu

s3 12 18 9 3s4 16 24 16 0

Profit: u(xu)− c(xu) = 8− 4 = 4

Limited Willpower 43

Page 118: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower: w = 0Now suppose the consumer has no willpower.Is there a better contract for the firm?

• INDULGING CONTRACT: Attract the consumer with lowestexcess temptation s1 but actually sell s3.

Consider (s1, 4; s3, 16− ε)

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s3 12 18 9 16− ε −4 + ε 2 + ε

In period 1, the naive consumer believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, he ends up choosing s3,Profit: 7− ε (> 4)

Limited Willpower 44

Page 119: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower: w = 0Now suppose the consumer has no willpower.Is there a better contract for the firm?

• INDULGING CONTRACT: Attract the consumer with lowestexcess temptation s1 but actually sell s3.

Consider (s1, 4; s3, 16− ε)

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s3 12 18 9 16− ε −4 + ε 2 + ε

In period 1, the naive consumer believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, he ends up choosing s3,Profit: 7− ε (> 4)

Limited Willpower 44

Page 120: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower: w = 0Now suppose the consumer has no willpower.Is there a better contract for the firm?

• INDULGING CONTRACT: Attract the consumer with lowestexcess temptation s1 but actually sell s3.

Consider (s1, 4; s3, 16− ε)

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s3 12 18 9 16− ε −4 + ε 2 + ε

In period 1, the naive consumer believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, he ends up choosing s3,Profit: 7− ε (> 4)

Limited Willpower 44

Page 121: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower: w = 0Now suppose the consumer has no willpower.Is there a better contract for the firm?

• INDULGING CONTRACT: Attract the consumer with lowestexcess temptation s1 but actually sell s3.

Consider (s1, 4; s3, 16− ε)

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s3 12 18 9 16− ε −4 + ε 2 + ε

In period 1, the naive consumer believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, he ends up choosing s3,Profit: 7− ε (> 4)

Limited Willpower 44

Page 122: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower: w = 0Now suppose the consumer has no willpower.Is there a better contract for the firm?

• INDULGING CONTRACT: Attract the consumer with lowestexcess temptation s1 but actually sell s3.

Consider (s1, 4; s3, 16− ε)

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s3 12 18 9 16− ε −4 + ε 2 + ε

In period 1, the naive consumer believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, he ends up choosing s3,Profit: 7− ε (> 4)

Limited Willpower 44

Page 123: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower: w = 0Now suppose the consumer has no willpower.Is there a better contract for the firm?

• INDULGING CONTRACT: Attract the consumer with lowestexcess temptation s1 but actually sell s3.

Consider (s1, 4; s3, 16− ε)

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s3 12 18 9 16− ε −4 + ε 2 + ε

In period 1, the naive consumer believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, he ends up choosing s3,Profit: 7− ε (> 4)

Limited Willpower 44

Page 124: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower• Offer two services (Indulging Contract)Firm’s maximization problem (Attract consumer by y but makehim buy x)

maxx,y,p(x),p(y)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0

Make him buy xv(x)− p(x) ≥ v(y)− p(y)

Both of them are binding:

p(x) = v(x)− (v(y)− p(y)) = v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

Limited Willpower 45

Page 125: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower• Offer two services (Indulging Contract)Firm’s maximization problem (Attract consumer by y but makehim buy x)

maxx,y,p(x),p(y)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0

Make him buy xv(x)− p(x) ≥ v(y)− p(y)

Both of them are binding:

p(x) = v(x)− (v(y)− p(y)) = v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

Limited Willpower 45

Page 126: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower• Offer two services (Indulging Contract)Firm’s maximization problem (Attract consumer by y but makehim buy x)

maxx,y,p(x),p(y)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0

Make him buy xv(x)− p(x) ≥ v(y)− p(y)

Both of them are binding:

p(x) = v(x)− (v(y)− p(y)) = v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

Limited Willpower 45

Page 127: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower• Offer two services (Indulging Contract)Firm’s maximization problem (Attract consumer by y but makehim buy x)

maxx,y,p(x),p(y)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0

Make him buy xv(x)− p(x) ≥ v(y)− p(y)

Both of them are binding:

p(x) = v(x)− (v(y)− p(y)) = v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

Limited Willpower 45

Page 128: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower• Offer two services (Indulging Contract)Firm’s maximization problem (Attract consumer by y but makehim buy x)

maxx,y,p(x),p(y)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0

Make him buy xv(x)− p(x) ≥ v(y)− p(y)

Both of them are binding:

p(x) = v(x)− (v(y)− p(y)) = v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

Limited Willpower 45

Page 129: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower w = 0

The bottom line: The optimal contract is the INDULGINGCONTRACT.

Attract the consumer with lowest excess temptation yActually sell xv = arg max(v − c)Profit from indulging contract is v(xv)− c(xv)− Y

Contracting with dynamically inconsistent naive agents,O’Donoghue and Rabin, 1999; Gilpatric, 2003; Sarafidis,2004; DellaVigna and Malmendier, 2004; 2006; and especiallyEliaz and Spiegler 2006,Indulging Contract is optimal.

So far nothing new!!!

Limited Willpower 46

Page 130: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower w = 0

The bottom line: The optimal contract is the INDULGINGCONTRACT.

Attract the consumer with lowest excess temptation yActually sell xv = arg max(v − c)Profit from indulging contract is v(xv)− c(xv)− Y

Contracting with dynamically inconsistent naive agents,O’Donoghue and Rabin, 1999; Gilpatric, 2003; Sarafidis,2004; DellaVigna and Malmendier, 2004; 2006; and especiallyEliaz and Spiegler 2006,Indulging Contract is optimal.

So far nothing new!!!

Limited Willpower 46

Page 131: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower w = 0

The bottom line: The optimal contract is the INDULGINGCONTRACT.

Attract the consumer with lowest excess temptation yActually sell xv = arg max(v − c)Profit from indulging contract is v(xv)− c(xv)− Y

Contracting with dynamically inconsistent naive agents,O’Donoghue and Rabin, 1999; Gilpatric, 2003; Sarafidis,2004; DellaVigna and Malmendier, 2004; 2006; and especiallyEliaz and Spiegler 2006,Indulging Contract is optimal.

So far nothing new!!!

Limited Willpower 46

Page 132: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower w = 0

The bottom line: The optimal contract is the INDULGINGCONTRACT.

Attract the consumer with lowest excess temptation yActually sell xv = arg max(v − c)Profit from indulging contract is v(xv)− c(xv)− Y

Contracting with dynamically inconsistent naive agents,O’Donoghue and Rabin, 1999; Gilpatric, 2003; Sarafidis,2004; DellaVigna and Malmendier, 2004; 2006; and especiallyEliaz and Spiegler 2006,Indulging Contract is optimal.

So far nothing new!!!

Limited Willpower 46

Page 133: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

No Willpower w = 0

The bottom line: The optimal contract is the INDULGINGCONTRACT.

Attract the consumer with lowest excess temptation yActually sell xv = arg max(v − c)Profit from indulging contract is v(xv)− c(xv)− Y

Contracting with dynamically inconsistent naive agents,O’Donoghue and Rabin, 1999; Gilpatric, 2003; Sarafidis,2004; DellaVigna and Malmendier, 2004; 2006; and especiallyEliaz and Spiegler 2006,Indulging Contract is optimal.

So far nothing new!!!

Limited Willpower 46

Page 134: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w > 0

• Offer Indulging Contract

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16s4 16 24 16

Limited Willpower 47

Page 135: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w > 0

• Offer Indulging Contract

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16s4 16 24 16

Consumer can resist some temptation,

Limited Willpower 47

Page 136: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w > 0

• Offer Indulging Contract

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16−ws4 16 24 16

Consumer can resist some temptation,Price of xv must be lowered by w,

Limited Willpower 47

Page 137: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w > 0

• Offer Indulging Contract

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16−ws4 16 24 16

Consumer can resist some temptation,Price of xv must be lowered by w,Hence, profit is lowered by w

Limited Willpower 47

Page 138: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16s4 16 24 16 20

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 139: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16s4 16 24 16 20

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 140: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p

s1 4 6 1 4s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16s4 16 24 16 20

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 141: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16 −4s4 16 24 16 20 −5

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 142: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16 −4s4 16 24 16 20 −5

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 143: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16 −4s4 16 24 16 20 −5 4

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, s4 is so tempting that he cannot choose s1,

.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 144: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16 −4 2s4 16 24 16 20 −5 4

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, s4 is so tempting that he cannot choose s1,

he ends up choosing s3.

Limited Willpower 48

Page 145: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Our Model w = 2

Is there a better contract for the firm?Exploit the Compromise Effect and consider a contract with threeservices

u v c p u− p v − ps1 4 6 1 4 0 2s2 8 12 4s3 12 18 9 16 −4 2s4 16 24 16 20 −5 4

In period 1, he believes that he will choose s1,In period 2, s4 is so tempting that he cannot choose s1,

he ends up choosing s3.Profit: 7 (we recovered the same profit as if no willpower)

Limited Willpower 48

Page 146: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Lesson from this example

To exploit the consumer with some willpower, use the compromiseeffect.

Need to offer three choices in the menu:one with the lowest excess temptation (Decoy)• persuading the consumer to sign the contract

one with the highest excess temptation (Temptation)• tempting the consumer not to choose decoy

something middle (Target)

Limited Willpower 49

Page 147: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Lesson from this example

To exploit the consumer with some willpower, use the compromiseeffect.

Need to offer three choices in the menu:one with the lowest excess temptation (Decoy)• persuading the consumer to sign the contract

one with the highest excess temptation (Temptation)• tempting the consumer not to choose decoy

something middle (Target)

Limited Willpower 49

Page 148: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

maxx,y,,z,p(x),p(y),p(z)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0z makes y unchoosable

v(z)− p(z) ≥ v(y)− p(y) + w

x is choosablev(x)− p(x) ≥ v(z)− p(z)− w

x is better than zu(x)− p(x) ≥ u(z)− p(z)

Limited Willpower 50

Page 149: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

maxx,y,,z,p(x),p(y),p(z)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0z makes y unchoosable

v(z)− p(z) ≥ v(y)− p(y) + w

x is choosablev(x)− p(x) ≥ v(z)− p(z)− w

x is better than zu(x)− p(x) ≥ u(z)− p(z)

Limited Willpower 50

Page 150: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

maxx,y,,z,p(x),p(y),p(z)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0z makes y unchoosable

v(z)− p(z) ≥ v(y)− p(y) + w

x is choosablev(x)− p(x) ≥ v(z)− p(z)− w

x is better than zu(x)− p(x) ≥ u(z)− p(z)

Limited Willpower 50

Page 151: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

maxx,y,,z,p(x),p(y),p(z)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0z makes y unchoosable

v(z)− p(z) ≥ v(y)− p(y) + w

x is choosablev(x)− p(x) ≥ v(z)− p(z)− w

x is better than zu(x)− p(x) ≥ u(z)− p(z)

Limited Willpower 50

Page 152: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

maxx,y,,z,p(x),p(y),p(z)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0z makes y unchoosable

v(z)− p(z) ≥ v(y)− p(y) + w

x is choosablev(x)− p(x) ≥ v(z)− p(z)− w

x is better than zu(x)− p(x) ≥ u(z)− p(z)

Limited Willpower 50

Page 153: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

maxx,y,,z,p(x),p(y),p(z)

p(x)− c(x)

subject toParticipation Constraint

u(y)− p(y) ≥ 0z makes y unchoosable

v(z)− p(z) ≥ v(y)− p(y) + w

x is choosablev(x)− p(x) ≥ v(z)− p(z)− w

x is better than zu(x)− p(x) ≥ u(z)− p(z)

Limited Willpower 50

Page 154: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

First two constraints binding:

py = u(y) and pz = v(z)− (v(y)− u(y))− w

Remaining two constraints become

px ≤ v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

px ≤ u(x)− (v(y)− u(y)) + (v(z)− u(z))− w.

Constraints are px ≤ v(x)− Y and px ≤ u(x)− Y + Z − w.

Limited Willpower 51

Page 155: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

First two constraints binding:

py = u(y) and pz = v(z)− (v(y)− u(y))− w

Remaining two constraints become

px ≤ v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

px ≤ u(x)− (v(y)− u(y)) + (v(z)− u(z))− w.

Constraints are px ≤ v(x)− Y and px ≤ u(x)− Y + Z − w.

Limited Willpower 51

Page 156: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Maximization Problem

First two constraints binding:

py = u(y) and pz = v(z)− (v(y)− u(y))− w

Remaining two constraints become

px ≤ v(x)− (v(y)− u(y))

px ≤ u(x)− (v(y)− u(y)) + (v(z)− u(z))− w.

Constraints are px ≤ v(x)− Y and px ≤ u(x)− Y + Z − w.

Limited Willpower 51

Page 157: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Compromising Contract

Compromising contract uses y as decoy and z as temptation.As target monopolist chooses x that maximizes:

min{v(x)− c(x)− Y, u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w}

Compromising contract always better than indulging contract(which has profit v(x)− c(x)− Y − w.)To see this note u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w ≥v(x)− c(x)− Y − w ⇐⇒ Z ≥ v(x)− u(x).If w ≤ Z − Y then compromising contract is best.If consumer’s willpower exceeds this threshold, commitmentcontract is best.

Limited Willpower 52

Page 158: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Compromising Contract

Compromising contract uses y as decoy and z as temptation.As target monopolist chooses x that maximizes:

min{v(x)− c(x)− Y, u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w}

Compromising contract always better than indulging contract(which has profit v(x)− c(x)− Y − w.)To see this note u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w ≥v(x)− c(x)− Y − w ⇐⇒ Z ≥ v(x)− u(x).If w ≤ Z − Y then compromising contract is best.If consumer’s willpower exceeds this threshold, commitmentcontract is best.

Limited Willpower 52

Page 159: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Compromising Contract

Compromising contract uses y as decoy and z as temptation.As target monopolist chooses x that maximizes:

min{v(x)− c(x)− Y, u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w}

Compromising contract always better than indulging contract(which has profit v(x)− c(x)− Y − w.)To see this note u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w ≥v(x)− c(x)− Y − w ⇐⇒ Z ≥ v(x)− u(x).If w ≤ Z − Y then compromising contract is best.If consumer’s willpower exceeds this threshold, commitmentcontract is best.

Limited Willpower 52

Page 160: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Compromising Contract

Compromising contract uses y as decoy and z as temptation.As target monopolist chooses x that maximizes:

min{v(x)− c(x)− Y, u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w}

Compromising contract always better than indulging contract(which has profit v(x)− c(x)− Y − w.)To see this note u(x)− c(x)− Y + Z − w ≥v(x)− c(x)− Y − w ⇐⇒ Z ≥ v(x)− u(x).If w ≤ Z − Y then compromising contract is best.If consumer’s willpower exceeds this threshold, commitmentcontract is best.

Limited Willpower 52

Page 161: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Example

Let X = [1, 4] and u(s) = 4s, v(s) = 6s and c(s) = s2. Thus,

Y = 2, xu = 2, xv = 3, Z = 8

Limited Willpower 53

Page 162: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Example

When w < 2, monopolist sells xv = 3 and earnsv(xv)− Y − c(xv) = 7 same as no willpower case.When 2 < w < 4 monopolist sells x = 4− w/2. As thewillpower goes up, the actually sold service approaches theefficient level.When 4 < w < 6, monopolist sells the efficient servicexu = 2, but exploits the consumer. Price goes down withmore willpower.When w > 6, the monopolist sells the efficient service xu = 2at the price of u(xu) = 6 without any exploitation.

Limited Willpower 54

Page 163: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Example

When w < 2, monopolist sells xv = 3 and earnsv(xv)− Y − c(xv) = 7 same as no willpower case.When 2 < w < 4 monopolist sells x = 4− w/2. As thewillpower goes up, the actually sold service approaches theefficient level.When 4 < w < 6, monopolist sells the efficient servicexu = 2, but exploits the consumer. Price goes down withmore willpower.When w > 6, the monopolist sells the efficient service xu = 2at the price of u(xu) = 6 without any exploitation.

Limited Willpower 54

Page 164: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Example

When w < 2, monopolist sells xv = 3 and earnsv(xv)− Y − c(xv) = 7 same as no willpower case.When 2 < w < 4 monopolist sells x = 4− w/2. As thewillpower goes up, the actually sold service approaches theefficient level.When 4 < w < 6, monopolist sells the efficient servicexu = 2, but exploits the consumer. Price goes down withmore willpower.When w > 6, the monopolist sells the efficient service xu = 2at the price of u(xu) = 6 without any exploitation.

Limited Willpower 54

Page 165: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Example

When w < 2, monopolist sells xv = 3 and earnsv(xv)− Y − c(xv) = 7 same as no willpower case.When 2 < w < 4 monopolist sells x = 4− w/2. As thewillpower goes up, the actually sold service approaches theefficient level.When 4 < w < 6, monopolist sells the efficient servicexu = 2, but exploits the consumer. Price goes down withmore willpower.When w > 6, the monopolist sells the efficient service xu = 2at the price of u(xu) = 6 without any exploitation.

Limited Willpower 54

Page 166: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Optimal Contract

Profit  

v(xv)-­‐c(xv)-­‐Y  

w  

u(xu)-­‐c(xu)  

v(xu)-­‐c(xu)-­‐Y  

Y-­‐Z    

xv  

Compromising   Commitment  

xu  

xu  

x=  

Limited Willpower 55

Page 167: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Comparative Statics w

The monopolist sells a service somewhere between xu and xv.Profit is weakly decreasing in consumer’s willpower.The consumer’s welfare is weakly increasing in his willpower.When w is small, the monopolist can earn the same amountof the profit when the consumer has no willpower at all.When w is high, no exploitation.

Limited Willpower 56

Page 168: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

Conclusion

Provide a limited willpower model,Our characterization uses only choices,Temptation modeled as a constraint rather than a directutility cost,Model is simple and tractable

I A monopolist facing a consumer with limited willpowerI Qualitatively different results (Strotz or Costly Self-control)I “Compromise Effect” as a market outcomeI Unchosen alternatives play crucial role in actual choice

Limited Willpower 57

Page 169: econweb.umd.edueconweb.umd.edu/~masatlioglu/Slides_to_post.pdf · Preferences and Choices Facing tempting alternatives, people sometimes make choices that are different from what

THANK YOU

Limited Willpower 58