Más allá de los informes del IPCC 2: EL IPCC: ESTRUCTURA Y FUNCIONAMIENTO Ferran Puig Vilar Centro de Postgrado -Universidad Camilo José Cela 18-19/06/2015
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Más allá de los informes del IPCC
2: EL IPCC: ESTRUCTURA Y FUNCIONAMIENTO
Ferran Puig VilarCentro de Postgrado -Universidad Camilo José Cela
18-19/06/2015
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change
Evaluación exhaustivaMultiplicidad de niveles de
revisión expertaAprobación por consenso de
los gobiernos (+ aceptación científicos)
• 1995: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”
• 2001: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”
• 2007: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…. Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid- 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
Exageración?: IPCC 2007• Realimentació núvols superior• Realimentació vapor d’aigua
superior• Realimentació albedo superior• Cicle del carboni
o Sòlso Oceanso Selves tropicalso Permafrost!
• En general, biosfera no contemplada o subestimada
• Albedo flip
• Només modelso Mesclat oceans polars
excessiuo No llindars
• Nivell de mar!o Antàrtica + Grenlàndia
• Més sensibles encara• Comportament no lineal
• Sensibilitat climàticao Llaços ràpids: + 3 ºCo Llaços lents: ≈ + 6 ºC
IPCC: Mínim comú denominador per pressió política + setge cultural1 error: Himàlaia
IPCC 2013 - Novedades
• Escenarios• Lenguaje de incertidumbre• Variables
o Nivel del maro Hielo Árticoo Forzamiento neg. aerosoles
• TCR, ESS• Ciclo del agua• Atribución variabilidad
natural• Geoingeniería• Comunicación
o 19 declaracioneso Viernes mañanao Movimiento browniano
No novedad:Peor que el anterior
Previsiones
5th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers – 27/09/2013 – Pág. 25
Joel B. Smith et al (2009) – Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘reasons for concern’ -
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:4133–4137 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106 – 15 autores
Son seguros + 2˚C?
¿+2 ºC?“Limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone with a probability of >33%, >50%, and >66% to less than 2°C since the period 1861–1880[ref], will require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1570 GtC, 0 and about 1210 GtC, and 0 and about 1000 GtC since that period respectively[ref]. These upper amounts are reduced to about 900 GtC, 820 GtC, and 790 GtC respectively, when accounting for non-CO2 forcings as in RCP2.6. An amount of 515 [445 to 585] GtC, was already emitted by 2011. {12.5} ”
IPCC AR5 Working Group II (leaked 2013) IPCC AR5 WGI SPM (09.2013)
¡No hay pausa!
Kevin Cowtan and Robert G. Way (2013) - Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society doi:10.1002/qj.2297 - Published online: 15/11/2013 - Department of Chemistry, University of York; Department of Geography, University of Ottawa
IPCC AR5 WGI SPM 09.2013
¿ASC en IPCC AR5?Moderación No moderación
• Sólo modelos• Lazos perdidos• Pausa?
o Año de comparación• Poco ‘Tipping Points’• ECS vs. nivel del mar• Cambio de
referencia!!o 1986-2005
• Adióso Anomalía térmica medievalo Rayos cósmicos
• Corriente termohalina• Nivel del mar• CC comprometido
>2100• TP Groenlandia• Atribución reforzada
95%
"None of the climate projections in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report include the permafrost carbon feedback (IPCC 2007). Participating modeling teams have completed their climate projections in support of the Fifth Assessment Report, but these projections do not include the permafrost carbon feedback. Consequently, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, due for release in stages between September 2013 and October 2014, will not include the potential effects of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate."
United Nations Environmental Program - Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost - United Nations Environmental Program - Published online: 01/11/2012 - - http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf
“Biological systems constitute a critical, but sometimes overlooked, component of the climate system because they influence key physical characteristics of the land surface and atmosphere …Unfortunately, it’s difficult to include these feedbacks accurately in climate projections because future responses of vegetation are hard to constrain using past observations and field experiments.”
Paul A.T. Higgins (2009) - Carbon cycle amplification: how optimistic assumptions cause persistent underestimates of potential climate damages and mitigation needs. An Editorial Comment - Climatic Change doi 10.1007/s10584-00 - Published online: 23/06/2009 - American Meteorological Society
Optimistic assumptions
“Periods of extreme drought in particular reduce the amount of carbon absorbed by forests, meadows and agricultural land significantly. “We have found that it is not extremes of heat that cause the most problems for the carbon balance, but drought,” explains [lead author] Markus Reichstein…. Drought can not only cause immediate damage to trees; it can also make them less resistant to pests and fire. It is also the case that a forest recovers much more slowly from fire or storm damage than other ecosystems do.”Markus Reichstein et al (2013) - Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - Nature 500:287–295 doi:10.1038/nature12350 - Published online:
14/08/2013 - Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry - 18 authors
"The reduced DMS emissions induce a significant additional radiative forcing, of which 83% is attributed to the impact of ocean acidification, tantamount to an equilibrium temperature response between 0.23 and 0.48 K. Our results indicate that ocean acidification has the potential to exacerbate anthropogenic warming through a mechanism that is not considered at present in projections of future climate change."Katharina D. Six et al (2013) - Global warming amplified by reduced sulphur fluxes as a result of ocean acidification - Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimate1981 - Published online: 25/08/2013 - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology - 6 authors
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