Mary-Anne Wilson - Clean Energy Regulator - Road to the Renewable Energy Target

RoadtotheRenewableEnergyTargetHowQueenslandistrackingandopportunitiesonthejourneytothe2020target

Mary-AnneWilson,A/gExecutiveGeneralManager

Agenda• Schemeoverview

• Small-scaleRenewableEnergyScheme

• Large-scaleRenewableEnergyTarget

• OpportunitiesintheLarge-scaleRenewableEnergyTarget

• Marketoutlook

• Questions

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 2

Ourpurpose: acceleratingcarbonabatementforAustralia

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 3

Schemeoverview

4

RenewableEnergyTarget

• encouragessmall-scalerenewableenergysysteminstallations

• uncapped

• certificatescreatedonexpectedgeneration

• doesnotcontribute tothe2020target

Small-scale Large-scale• encouragesnewinvestmentin

large-scalerenewableenergy

• 33millionmegawatthoursofadditionalelectricityfromrenewablesourcesby2020

• certificatescreatedonactualgeneration

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 5

Supplyanddemand

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 6

Achievementsin2015

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 7

In 2015, total generation capacity of large-scale solar almost tripled from capacity in 2014.

Legislativechange

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 8

• Newtargetof33000GWhhasprovidedpolicycertainty

• Newannualstatementreportsonprogresstowardthe2020target

Small-scaleRenewableEnergyScheme

Small-scaleRenewableEnergyScheme

2016LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane 10

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Australia QLD

Large-scaleRenewableEnergyTarget

QLDcontributiontolarge-scalegeneration

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 12

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

20000000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eligiblegeneration(M

Wh)

Total

QLD

CurrentinstalledcapacitybyfuelsourceinQLD

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 13

* Includes co-fired landfill gas and natural gas power stations

Fuelsource Installedcapacity(MW)

Wind 12Agriculturewaste,foodwaste,wastefromagricultureproducts 4

Bagasse 465

Hydro 166

Landfillgas 513*

Solar 12Sewagegasandbiomassbasedcomponents ofsewage,municipalsolidwaste 1

Total 1173

OpportunitiesintheLarge-scaleRenewableEnergyTarget

Commercialandindustrialsolar

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 15

84

963

2,6622,913

5,789

6,834 6,967

1,512

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Australia

Large-scaleRenewableEnergyTarget

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 16

Large-scalegenerationcertificatespotprice

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 17

Marketoutlook

Progressin2016

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 19

• 2015AnnualStatementfoundadequateprogresstowardsthe2020targetattheendof2015

• 3000MWneedstobecommittedin2016• Asof15Julyweareconfident that1140MWcapacityisorsoonwillbe

committed

• 6000MWofnewbuildrequiredtosupplytomeetbothstatutoryandvoluntarysourcesofdemand

Renewableprojects

Solarcapacity (MW) Windcapacity(MW)

Committed 76 298

Likelytobecommitted 100 669

Planning approval >4500 >7000

Queensland

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 20

Solarcapacity (MW) Windcapacity(MW)

Committed 50 -

Likelytobecommitted 100 170

Planning approval 3700 300

National

Conclusion

• QLDcurrentlyleading thecountryfornationwide installs

• SolarPVmarketinQLDstartingtoshift tomorecommercialandindustrialsizedsystems

Small-scale Large-scale• Opportunity withastrongLGC

pricesignaland4000MWofprojectswithplanningapprovalinQLD

• 3700MWofsolarprojectsinthepipelineshowsagrowingpreferenceforlarge-scalesolar

LargeScaleSolarConference – Brisbane2016 21

Questions?

FooterDetails– presentation titleanddate 22