NPES 1899 Preston White Drive Reston, VA 20191 T: 703.264.7200 F: 703.620.0994 www.npes.org M ARKETING I NFORMATION 2 nd Quarter 2012 Marketing Information provides readers with market data directly related to the printing and publishing industry. This publication is a consolidated, quarterly quick-reference guide compiled from various government and industry sources, including primary data from the NPES Market Data Program. Supplemental data are included to provide a complete statistical picture of the industry.
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MARKETING INFORMATION - NPES Data/Marketing... · shipments based on 2nd quarter 2012 data In addition to summarizing recent market developments, NPES is pleased to include printing
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NPES
1899 Preston White Drive
Reston, VA 20191
T: 703.264.7200
F: 703.620.0994
www.npes.org
MARKETING INFORMATION
2nd Quarter 2012
Marketing Information provides readers with market data directly related to
the printing and publishing industry. This publication is a consolidated,
quarterly quick-reference guide compiled from various government and
industry sources, including primary data from the NPES Market Data Program.
Supplemental data are included to provide a complete statistical picture of
the industry.
Table of Contents
In Summary 1
General 1
U.S. Printing Equipment Shipments 1
U.S. Graphic Arts Supplies Shipments 2
Total U.S. Market [Traditional Printing Equipment, Graphic Arts Supplies and Production Digital
Color Presses] Shipments 2
Printing Equipment & Graphic Arts Supplies 3
Total U.S. Market 3
Forecasts 3
Production 4
Producer Price Index 4
Industrial Production 4
Capacity Utilization 5
“Real” Gross Domestic Product 5
Employees, Earnings and Hours 6
Production and Nonsupervisory Employees 6
Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees 6
Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees 6
Financial 7
Magazine Rate Card Revenue & Ad Pages for PIB Measured Magazines 7
2nd Quarter 2012 1
In Summary
Commentary on forecast of NPES Printing Equipment & Graphic Arts Supplies
shipments based on 2nd quarter 2012 data
In addition to summarizing recent market developments, NPES is pleased to include printing equipment and
graphic arts supplies forecasts from DeWolf Associates in this section. NPES provides these forecasts as a
service to members to provide a perspective on the future trends in our industry. As you are aware, different
economists use different factors to develop their forecasts. Hopefully, DeWolf’s forecasts will aid you in
arriving at your own "view" of the future. “Growth” as used in this summary refers to yr/yr growth, the
percent growth, month by month, in the most recent twelve months compared to the previous twelve
months.
General
The U.S. economy had a strong start to the year followed by slower growth in the second quarter. This was
partly due to a warm winter, which “borrowed” some springtime sales from the second quarter. A more
serious problem is the economic weakness in Europe. With major countries like Spain and Italy teetering on
insolvency it is uncertain how demand for exports will be affected. A final issue is political. Both tax
increases and severe budget cuts are set to
automatically begin at the start of 2013 unless Congress
acts. It is very unclear whether there can be any
agreement on fiscal issues during this presidential
election year. Even though our economy is
fundamentally sound, the current uncertainty is slowing
the recovery.
The forecast model has been adjusted based on the
slower second quarter and now expects the next high in
early 2014. Most growth curves will have a dip in late
2012 or early 2013 before rising to the high. The following low should occur in mid-2015. No leading
indicators extend out that far, so the timing and amplitude are estimates based on average business cycles.
Recessions tend to occur in 10 year cycles, so it would be very unusual to have a significant downturn before
2020. Source: DeWolf Associates
U.S. Printing Equipment
Shipments Second quarter 2012 printing
equipment shipments are $116.6
million, compared to $118.8 million
in the first quarter. The second
quarter is +4.2% above the second
quarter of 2011. The 12 months
ending with June 2012 are +3.7%
above the previous 12 months (the
yr/yr).
The yr/yr growth curve for printing
equipment shipments had a large
“mirror image” low in 2011 due to
the exceptionally strong quarter at
the end of 2009. While printing
“Recessions tend to occur in 10
year cycles, so it would be very
unusual to have a significant
downturn before 2020.”
$382.5
$291.1
$313.0
$288.9
$183.1
$138.4
$179.5
$378.2
$128.4
$101.5
$113.9
$135.1
$120.5
$111.9
$142.4
$121.7
$118.8
$116.6
$120.0
$157.0
$141.0
$122.0
$134.0
$173.0
$149.0
$125.0
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
$400.0
$450.0
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09*
4Q
09*
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
U.S. Printing Equipment Shipments
[Millions of Dollars]
Actual DeWolf Forecast
* Due to disclosure issues, the 3rd and 4th quarter Equipment totals for 2009 are estimates. However, the 2009 yearly
total is accurate.
2nd Quarter 2012 2
shipments generally follow the overall economy and industrial production, the distorted growth curve does
not match the economy for 2011. The growth curve is now returning to a more normal pattern. Printing
equipment quarterly shipments were slightly higher than the last forecast. They are now expected to be
+3.1% higher in 2012 than 2011. Additional +11% gains are expected in 2013. Source: DeWolf Associates and
NPES
U.S. Graphic Arts
Supplies Shipments Graphic arts supply shipments in the
second quarter of 2012 are $176.3
million, almost the same as the $176.6
million in the first quarter. The
quarter is -10.6% below the second
quarter of 2011 and yr/yr growth is
down -9.7%. This is lower than was
forecast last quarter.
The forecast for graphic arts supplies
has been lowered. Shipments in 2012
are now expected be -5.4% below 2011
followed by a +2% rise in 2013. Source:
DeWolf Associates and NPES
Total U.S. Market [Traditional Printing Equipment, Graphic Arts Supplies
and Production Digital Color Presses] Shipments With the addition of
the production digital
color press data in
2010, we now have a
more complete
picture of the
industry. The
production digital
color press data
includes light and
heavy production
equipment sold to the
commercial and in-
plant printing industry
but does not include
sales of production
devices to the office
market unless it goes
to the in-plant
printing facility with the organization.
In 2011, the market for production digital presses fell -11% to nearly $1.1 billion dollars and the total market
was $2.3 billion, down -7% from 2010. Source: NPES