Hanoi Real Estate | April 2018 Market Overview
Hanoi Real Estate | April 2018
Market Overview
Economy
Target 2018
achieved
CPI
Target2018
achievedIntl. Tourist
4%2.8%
15 -17m
4.2m30.9%
Credit Growth
Target 2018
achieved
17%
2.2% GDP
Target 2018
achieved
6.5-6.8% 7.4%
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam
National Administration of Tourism, The State Bank of
Vietnam, State Securities Commission of Vietnam
1Q18 - Vietnam Economic Review
Exchange Rate
1Q17 1Q18
VN
D 2
2,32
5
VN
D 2
2,79
0
VN-Index
1Q17 1Q18
7191,172
63%
2.1%
1Q17 1Q18
90.8135.5
46%
HNX-Index
4
Hong Kong Singapore Japan British Virgin IslandsSouth Korea
Top 5 Countries Investing in Vietnam in terms of registered capital in 1Q18
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment – Foreign Investment Agency (FIA Vietnam)
1Q18 - Vietnam FDI
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
Vietnam's FDI by year (US$ million)
Registered capital Implemented capital
$3.9 bil.▲7.2% y-o-y
$5.8 bil.▼24.8% y-o-y
59.4%
9.1%
8.4%6.4%5.6%
Others11.1%
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade;repair of motor vehicles
Real estate activities
Construction
Professional, scientific andtechnical activities
Others
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
Real estate
Construction
Professional, scientific and
technical activities
Top 5 FDI
Attracting Sectors
in 1Q18
1Q18 M&A – Notable Transactions
Acquired a
land plot in
Hanoi CBD
Acquired a
land plot in
Tay Ho District
at USD 30.2
mil
Xuan Thanh
GroupCapitaLand
Acquired
Capri by
Fraser and
IBIS Saigon
South
Nomura Real
Estate
development
Strategic
Hospitality
REIT
Agriseco sold
a land plot at
51 Phan Boi
Chau at USD
12.7 mil
Agriseco
Nomura has
acquired 24%
ownership
interest of Sun
Wah Tower.
Apartmentperformance
1Q2018
Per quarter
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
6,701
5,967
9,388
8,890 FY 2017 31,230
-5.3%
9,174
Projects are only considered as officially launched when
the Sale Purchase Agreements can be signed upon the
completion of foundation.
Source: JLL Research
New Launch
12%
59%
29%
Luxury Premium
Mid-end Affordable
By segment
1Q2018
Per quarter
Source: JLL Research
Units Sold
10,599 FY 2017 30,645
+7.7%
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
8,172
6,067
6,562
9,844
1%9%
59%
31%
Luxury Premium
Mid-end Affordable
By segment
USD/sqm
Source: JLL Research
Average Selling Prices
1,317
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 Q4.17 Q1.18
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Luxury Premium Mid-end Affordable Overall
-3.9%
-5.2%
2018 new completions – moving to the West
Vinhomes Gardenia
Goldmark City Sapphire block
Eurowindow River Park
Times City - Park Hill Premium
Gelexia Riverside
Diamond Riverside
Vinhomes Lieu Giai
An Binh City
Seasons Avenue
D'. Capitale
Eco Green City
Source: JLL Research
Source: JLL Research, GSO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1Q18
Luxury - less than 1% Premium Mid-end Affordable
7,654,8002017 Hanoi populations
2011-1Q18
Total Completed Stock
151k39%46%14%
50-55k Units
Total new completions by end-2018
25-30k Units
The market will welcome a
wave of project
completions
Sales rates may be impacted
slightly, following the recently
emerging concern about the
apartment fire safety
Demand from owner-occupiers
improving, Affordable and Mid-
end apartments lead the marketFY 2017: 28,315 units
FY 2017: 31,230 units
Residential OutlookTotal new launches in 2018
Officeperformance
Total Supply 2013-1Q18 (NFA, Sqm)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
1,785,212
Grade A – 528,931 sqm
Grade B – 1,003,197 sqm
Source: JLL Research
Grade C – 253,084 sqm
0
2
4
6
8
10
Hanoi Bangkok
Mil
lio
ns
Hanoi vs. Bangkok Office Stock
1,785,212
8,922,106
5 times
15
Source: JLL Research
Occupancy Rate
93.3%
93.7%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 1Q18
Grade A Grade B
76 bps
606 bps
85 bps
343 bps
Source: JLL Research
Net absorption (Grade A&B)2013-1Q18 (NFA, Sqm)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
Thousands
24k
Average Rental Rate *
(US$/sqm/month)
10
20
30
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
Grade A Grade B in CBD Grade B in Non-CBD
29.3
21.7
1.0%
2.8%
4.0%
2.6% q-o-q
y-o-y
15.7
5.9%
1.9%
Gross rent includes service charges/ management fees, but exclude VAT.
Average gross rent, q-o-q and y-o-y changes are adjusted to remove the effects of supply additions / removals (i.e. changes are on a like-for-like basis).
Source: JLL Research
18
*Future supply 2020 onward include projects that are under-construction stage at the report time only. This figure is subject to change based upon the latest
announcement/development plan.
Source: JLL Research
Future supply 2Q18- 2020 onward (sqm - NFA)
9M18 2019 2020 onward*
Grade A Grade B Grade C
154.3K
49K
276.8K
Notable upcoming projects 2020
Metropolis Lieu Giai, Ba Dinh Dist.
95,000 sqm
2018
HUD Tower, Thanh Xuan Dist.
56,000 sqm
2018
Discovery Complex, Cau Giay Dist.
45,000 sqm
2018
FLC Twin Tower, Cau Giay Dist.
28,800 sqm
2019
Oriental Sun Tower, Hoan Kiem Dist.
18,648 sqm
2020 onward
Vietinbank Tower, Tay Ho Dist.
145,000 sqm
Sep 2018
Detech Tower II, Cau Giay Dist.
15,520 sqm
*Future supply 2020 onward include projects that are under-construction stage at the report time only. This figure is subject to change based upon the latest announcement/development plan.
Source: JLL Research
Grade A and Grade B rent will
gradually improve throughout 2018
Strong demand from co-working
space, both local and international
brand
166.7kFuture supply in 2018
Sqm NFA
No new Grade A until 2020, most new supply
developed by local developers, focusing on
non-CBD area.
Office Outlook
Limited supply to continue driving
renewal demand of big office occupiers
Retailperformance
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
Total Supply2013-1Q18 (NFA, Sqm)
Source: JLL Research
Non CBD – 951,097 sqm
971,153
CBD - 20,056 sqm
Source: JLL Research
Occupancy Rate
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
CBD Non-CBD
94.6%
82.9%78 bps
655 bps
249 bps
195 bps
Average Rental Rate *
(US$/sqm/month)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
CBD Non-CBD
27.3
84.50.4%
1.7%
0.0%
0.7%
Gross rent includes service charges/ management fees, but exclude VAT.
Average gross rent, q-o-q and y-o-y changes are adjusted to remove the effects of supply additions / removals (i.e. changes are on a like-for-like basis).
Source: JLL Research
9M18 2019 2020 onward *
25
*Future supply 2020 onward include projects that are under-construction stage at the report time only. This figure is subject to change based upon the latest announcement/development plan.
Source: JLL Research
Future supply (sqm - NFA)
139K
133.4K
150K
Updated
2019
Vincom D' Capitale
Cau Giay, 40,000 sqm
2018
Discovery Complex,
Cau Giay, 25,876 sqm
2018
Sun Grand City Thuy Khue
Tay Ho, 20,000 sqm
2019
AEON Mall Ha Dong
74,000 sqm
2018
Sun City Grand Ancora
Hai Ba Trung, 20,000 sqm
2018
Metropolis Lieu Giai
Ba Dinh, 30,000 sqm
2018
FLC Twin Towers, Cau Giay
18,000 sqm
2019
Sunrise Complex
Ha Dong, 17,000 sqm
*Future supply 2020 onward include projects that are under-construction stage at the report time only. This figure is subject to change based upon the latest announcement/development plan.
Source: JLL Research
New supply dominated by retail podiums in non-CBD locations
The rental performance is likely to see mild improvement, a result of growing competition from online shopping recently
The occupancy rate is projected to decline, most likely owing to new properties
Demand from the F&B and entertainment operators remains mainly active
129kNew Retail Supply in 2018
Sqm
Retail Outlook
Industrialperformance
17.778Total Area in Northern Region
ha
291 1 .366Total Leasable Area in Northern Region
ha
Total AreaLeasable Area by Province (Ha)
2.3K
1.4K
2.9K
1.3K
1.0K 1.1K
Bac Ninh Hai Duong Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Quang Ninh Vinh Phuc
1.2K
$76.6Industrial Land
sqm/lease term
30$2.3–$4.9Standard Factory
sqm/month
Average Net Rent Northern Region
Average Rents by Province
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
40
80
120
160
Bac Ninh Hanoi Hai
Phong
Hai
Duong
Hung Yen Quang
Ninh
Vinh
Phuc
Average Land Rent (LHS) Average Factory Rent (RHS)
USD/sqm/lease term USD/sqm/month
*Factory rent figure covers those projects having this information publicly available only
Source: JLL Research
~81%Northern Regional Industrial
31
Occupancy Rate Occupancy Rate by Province
84%
76%70%
100%
88%
77%
Bac Ninh Hai Duong Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Quang Ninh Vinh Phuc
76%
18,116Total Area in Northern Region (Ha)
32
Future Supply (Until 2020)
Leasable Area by Province (Ha)
1.4K0.7K
8.1K
1.0K
3.0K
Bac Ninh Hai Duong Hai Phong Ha Noi Hung Yen Quang Ninh Vinh Phuc
3.1K
0.7K
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