Market Outlook THE WEEK THAT WAS WEEK AHEAD Nifty settles below 11,000 level Domestic stocks settled with small gains in the week gone by after seeing wild swings either ways. The Nifty 50 index dropped below the psychological 11,000 level after moving above and below that level in the week. Small and mid-cap stocks dropped sharply. In the week ended Friday, 8 February 2019, the Sensex rose 77.05 points or 0.21% to settle at 36,546.48, its lowest closing level since 1 February 2019. The Nifty 50 index rose 49.95 points or 0.46% to settle at 10,943.60, its lowest closing level since 5 February 2019. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 312.57 points or 2.13% to settle at 14,328.81. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 293.70 points or 2.11% to settle at 13,656.75. On the economic front, business activity growth in the Indian service sector cooled further at the start of 2019, amid the weakest upturn in new work since last September. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index fell for the second straight month in January, from 53.2 in December to 52.2, indicating a softer expansion in output. Meanwhile, fiscal deficit for the first nine months of the current fiscal, that is April-December, crossed 112.4% of the Budget Estimate (BE). Fiscal deficit for the first nine months is more than Rs 7.01 lakh crore as against the BE of Rs 6.24 lakh crore. According to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), the revenue receipts of the government totalled Rs 10.84 lakh crore or 62.8% of BE in 2018-2019 till December, compared with 66.9% during the same period last year. Tax revenue was 63.2% of BE, compared with 73.4% in the comparable period of the previous year. The total expenditure of the government at December-end was Rs 18.32 lakh crore or 75% of BE. On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25% with immediate effect. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 6.0%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.5%. The MPC also decided to change the monetary policy stance from calibrated tightening to neutral. These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth. On the economic front, the Union Cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has approved establishment of a unified authority for regulating all financial services in International Financial Services Centres (IFSCs) in India through International Financial Services Centres Authority Bill, 2019. The first IFSC in India has been set up at GIFT City, Gandhinagar, Gujarat. On the global front, US manufacturing productivity rose 1.3% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.1% growth in the third quarter, the Labor Department reported. The US trade deficit in November fell to $49.3 billion, below the October level of $55.5 billion in October. Corporate earnings, macroeconomic data to be watched Corporate earnings, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term. Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will also be monitored. Among corporate earnings, Eicher Motors will announce October-December 2018 quarterly results on 11 February 2019. Coal India, Hindalco Industries and Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries will declare their October-December 2018 quarterly results on 12 February 2019. Bosch and ONGC will unveil their October-December 2018 quarterly results on 14 February 2019. On the macro front, India's industrial production data for December 2018 will be unveiled on 12 February 2019. India's industrial production growth slowed sharply to 0.5% year-on-year in November 2018 from an upwardly revised 11-month high of 8.4% in the previous month. The inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for January 2019, will be announced on 14 February 2019. On the political front, developments in the budget session of parliament will be closely watched. The last Parliament session of the Narendra Modi government - the budget session - began on 31 January 2019. The session will go on till February 13. On the global front, China's inflation data for January will be announced on 15 February 2019. Japan's industrial production data for December will be announced on 15 February 2019. US Retail Sales for December will be declared on 14 February 2019. Technical View Nifty Outlook (10943.60): Bank Nifty Outlook (27295): USDINR Outlook (71.43) : EURINR Outlook (81.43): Dollar Index Outlook (96.41): Fears of a false breakout on the Nifty index looms over the horizon. The index that broke above the 11,000 mark early in the week failed to sustain and has once again shut below the 10,980 breakout zone. During the last week Nifty Index has made a high of 11118 and given a sharo correction from this level up to 10925. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 10890 and 10830 for nex week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 11020 and 11150 for next week. During the last week Bank Nifty has made a lower top formation and closed at 27295. Its 20 DEMA support is 27210. Closes below this level next support is likely to be seen around 27050 to 26650. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 27500 to 27650 for next week. During the last week USDINR has made a high of 72.15 and given correction from this level up 71.15. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 71.10 and 70.30 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 71.70 and 71.95 for next week. During the last week EURINR has made a high of 82.99 and given a sharp correction from this level up to 80.75. Its immediate support is lkely to be seen around 80.70 and 79.75 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 81.50 and 82.20 for next week. During the last week DX has given a sharp move from 95.30 to 96.50. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 95.70 and 95.10 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 96.50 and 97.50 for next week. Weekly Newsletter | th th 10 Feb- 16 Feb. 2019 Market Outlook Cash Market Data Market Indicator Primary Mkt. Updates Pivot Levels Next Week Events Index Particulars Nifty Sensex 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low 11760.20 9951.90 10943.60 38989.65 32483.84 36546.48 Close Currency Update CMP Net Change USDINR EURINR 81.43 71.43 -0.02% -0.82% Institutional Activity ( Cr.) FII DII Week 2265.23 Month (Feb.) Year (2019) 3708.99 -13.65 3581.12 -8.58 Primary Market Update Date Price Band Company - - - - - - - 2123.08 I P O Nitial ublic ffering Equities Commodities Demat IPOs Research Mutual Funds Currencies Training
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Market Outlook - Tradeswift · The BSE Mid-Cap inde x f ell 312.5 7 point s or 2.13% to se ttle a t 14,328.81. The BSE Small-Cap inde x f ell 293.7 0 point s or 2.11% to se ttle a
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Market Outlook
THE WEEK THAT WAS
WEEK AHEAD
Nifty settles below 11,000 level
Domestic stocks settled with small gains in the week gone by after seeing wild swings either ways. The Nifty 50 index dropped below the psychological 11,000 level after moving above and below that level in the week. Small and mid-cap stocks dropped sharply.
In the week ended Friday, 8 February 2019, the Sensex rose 77.05 points or 0.21% to settle at 36,546.48, its lowest closing level since 1 February 2019. The Nifty 50 index rose 49.95 points or 0.46% to settle at 10,943.60, its lowest closing level since 5 February 2019.
The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 312.57 points or 2.13% to settle at 14,328.81. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 293.70 points or 2.11% to settle at 13,656.75.
On the economic front, business activity growth in the Indian service sector cooled further at the start of 2019, amid the weakest upturn in new work since last September. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index fell for the second straight month in January, from 53.2 in December to 52.2, indicating a softer expansion in output.
Meanwhile, fiscal deficit for the first nine months of the current fiscal, that is April-December, crossed 112.4% of the Budget Estimate (BE). Fiscal deficit for the first nine months is more than Rs 7.01 lakh crore as against the BE of Rs 6.24 lakh crore.
According to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), the revenue receipts of the government totalled Rs 10.84 lakh crore or 62.8% of BE in 2018-2019 till December, compared with 66.9% during the same period last year.
Tax revenue was 63.2% of BE, compared with 73.4% in the comparable period of the previous year. The total expenditure of the government at December-end was Rs 18.32 lakh crore or 75% of BE.
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25% with immediate effect. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 6.0%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.5%.
The MPC also decided to change the monetary policy stance from calibrated tightening to neutral. These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.
On the economic front, the Union Cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has approved establishment of a unified authority for regulating all financial services in International Financial Services Centres (IFSCs) in India through International Financial Services Centres Authority Bill, 2019. The first IFSC in India has been set up at GIFT City, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
On the global front, US manufacturing productivity rose 1.3% in the fourth quarter, up from 1.1% growth in the third quarter, the Labor Department reported. The US trade deficit in November fell to $49.3 billion, below the October level of $55.5 billion in October.
Corporate earnings, macroeconomic data to be watched
Corporate earnings, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term. Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will also be monitored.
Among corporate earnings, Eicher Motors will announce October-December 2018 quarterly results on 11 February 2019. Coal India, Hindalco Industries and Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries will declare their October-December 2018 quarterly results on 12 February 2019. Bosch and ONGC will unveil their October-December 2018 quarterly results on 14 February 2019.
On the macro front, India's industrial production data for December 2018 will be unveiled on 12 February 2019. India's industrial production growth slowed sharply to 0.5% year-on-year in November 2018 from an upwardly revised 11-month high of 8.4% in the previous month.The inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for January 2019, will be announced on 14 February 2019.
On the political front, developments in the budget session of parliament will be closely watched. The last Parliament session of the Narendra Modi government - the budget session - began on 31 January 2019. The session will go on till February 13.
On the global front, China's inflation data for January will be announced on 15 February 2019. Japan's industrial production data for December will be announced on 15 February 2019. US Retail Sales for December will be declared on 14 February 2019.
Tech
nic
al V
iew Nifty Outlook (10943.60):
Bank Nifty Outlook (27295):
USDINR Outlook (71.43) :
EURINR Outlook (81.43):
Dollar Index Outlook (96.41):
Fears of a false breakout on the Nifty index looms over the horizon. The index that broke above the 11,000 mark early in the week failed to sustain and has once again shut below the 10,980 breakout zone. During the last week Nifty Index has made a high of 11118 and given a sharo correction from this level up to 10925. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 10890 and 10830 for nex week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 11020 and 11150 for next week.
During the last week Bank Nifty has made a lower top formation and closed at 27295. Its 20 DEMA support is 27210. Closes below this level next support is likely to be seen around 27050 to 26650. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 27500 to 27650 for next week.
During the last week USDINR has made a high of 72.15 and given correction from this level up 71.15. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 71.10 and 70.30 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 71.70 and 71.95 for next week.
During the last week EURINR has made a high of 82.99 and given a sharp correction from this level up to 80.75. Its immediate support is lkely to be seen around 80.70 and 79.75 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 81.50 and 82.20 for next week.
During the last week DX has given a sharp move from 95.30 to 96.50. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 95.70 and 95.10 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 96.50 and 97.50 for next week.
Weekly Newsletter | th th10 Feb- 16 Feb. 2019
Market Outlook
Cash Market Data
Market Indicator
Primary Mkt. Updates
Pivot Levels
Next Week Events
Index
Particulars Nifty Sensex
52 Wk High
52 Wk Low
11760.20
9951.90
10943.60
38989.65
32483.84
36546.48Close
Currency Update
CMP Net Change
USDINR
EURINR 81.43
71.43 -0.02%
-0.82%
Institutional Activity ( Cr.)
FII DII
Week 2265.23
Month (Feb.)
Year (2019) 3708.99
-13.653581.12
-8.58
Primary Market Update
Date Price BandCompany
- --
---
-
2123.08
IPO
Nitialublicffering
Equities Commodities Demat IPOs ResearchMutual FundsCurrencies Training
MCX OPTION STRATEGYCOPPER : Sell Feb. Call option strike of 450 @ CMP 4.50.Maximum Profit : Call PremiumMaximum loss : UnlimitedStop Loss : Exit in Call option If Copper closes Above 450.
COPPER : Sell Feb. Put option strike of 430 @ CMP 3.25.Maximum Profit : Put PremiumMaximum loss : UnlimitedStop Loss : Exit in Put option If Copper closes Below 430.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Disclaimer:This Document has been prepared by Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd., for use by the recipient only and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained in the documenthave been complied from sources believed to be reliable. Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd., does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.This report is for your guidanceonly. Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd. Or any of its director/employee/signatories or any other person will not be responsible for any trade done based on the report mentioned above.Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd has no personal trading interest in any of the scrips detailed above. Trading in commodities is facilitated through associate companies : TradeswiftCommodities Private Limited (NCDEX) and Tradeswift Derivatives Private Limited (MCX)
Commodity MonthLTP as on
08.02.2019Strategy Target S/L Technical Comments
Chana March 4273
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
4290/4350 (Res.)4190/4150
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMAof 4205. Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 4240. Closesbelow this level it can correct up to around 4205 to 4190. It can alsobounce from these levels. Near resistance levels it can give somecorrection. If sustain and closes above 4290 it can go up to around4350 to 4390.
Guar Gum March 8273Sell on rise and
buy nearsupport levels
8490/8570 (Res.)8190/8050
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed Below 20 DEMA of8570. Traders can sell on rise with SL 8590. Closes above this level itcan go up to around 8650 to 8690. It can also correct from theselevels. It can also bounce from support levels.
Guar Seed M March 4183Sell on rise and
buy nearsupport levels
4270/4330 (Res.)4130/3970
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed Below 200 DEMA of4295. Traders can sell on rise near resistance levels with SL 4350. Itcan also bounce from support levels.
Jeera March 15475
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
15800/16300(Res.)
15350/14850(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of16290. Traders can sell on bounce near resistance levels with SL of15850. Closes above this level it can go up to around 16300. It can alsocorrect from these levels. Near support levels it can give somebounce.
Agri Commodities
Soyabean March 3778
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
3830/3890 (Res.)3690/3650
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation so traders can sell on rise withnear SL of 3830. Closes above this level it can go up to around 3890 to3930. It can also correct from these levels. It can also bounce fromsupport levels.
RMSeed Apr 3928Sell on rise and
buy nearsupport levels
3970/4030 (Res.)3890/3830
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed Below 50 DEMA of3970. Traders can sell on rise with SL 3975. Closes above this level itcan go up to around 4010 to 4030. It can also correct from theselevels. It can also bounce from support levels.
Soya Oil Ref. March 766
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
770/775765/760
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of760. Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 764. Closes belowthis level it can correct up to around 760. It can also bounce fromthese levels. Below 760 it can correct up to around 753. It can alsobounce from this level. Near resistance level it can give somecorrection.
Cocud(N) March 1988
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
2050/2090 (Res.)1960/1910
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed Below 20 DEMA of2005. Traders can sell on rise with SL 2020. Closes above this level itcan go up to around 2050 to 2090. It can also correct from theselevels. It can also bounce from support levels. Closes below 1960 itcan correct up to around 1910.
Dhania Apr 6232Sell on rise and
buy nearsupport levels
6430/6530 (Res.)5930/5850
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed Below 20 DEMA of6530. Traders can sell on rise with SL 6450. Closes above this level itcan go up to around 6530. It can also correct from this levels. It canalso bounce from support levels.
TMC Apr 6342Sell on rise and
buy nearsupport levels
6490/6590 (Res.)6290/6150
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed Below 20 DEMA of6530 . Traders can sell on rise with SL 6490. Closes above this level itcan go up to around 6590 to 6650. It can also correct from theselevels. It can also bounce from support levels.
Mentha oil (MCX) Feb 1582
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
1605/1630 (Res.)1560/1490
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMAof 1560. Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 1560. Closesbelow this level it can correct up to around 1490. It can also bouncefrom these levels. Near resistance levels it can give some correction.
CPO (MCX) Feb 570
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
575/580 (Res.)565/560
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMAof 565. Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 565. Closes belowthis level it can correct up to around 560 to 557. It can also bouncefrom these levels. Near resistance levels it can give some correction.
Cardamom Feb 1581
Buy aroundsup. Level and
sell around res.Level
1620/1650 (Res.)1570/1540
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of1575. Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 1570. Closes belowthis level it can correct up to around 1540. It can also bounce fromthese levels. Near resistance levels it can give some correction.
Commodity MonthLTP as on
08.02.2019Strategy Resistance Support Technical Comments
Gold Apr 33242Buy on declines
and sell nearres. Levels
33450/3375033050/32750(Sup.)
Gold has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of32720. Traders can buy on declines with SL 33050. Closes below this level itcan correct up to around 32750. It can also bounce from this level. Nearresistance level it can give some correction.
Silver March 40105Buy on declines
and sell nearres. Levels
40500/40950(Res.)
39700/39300(Sup.)
Silver has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of39810. Traders can buy on declines with SL 39600. Closes below this level itcan correct up to around 39300 to 39100. It can also bounce from this level.Near resistance level it can give some correction.
Copper Feb 443
Buy aroundsupport leveland sell near
resistancelevels
447/450 (Res.)440/435
(Sup.)
Copper has made a high of 451 and given a sharp correction from this levelup to 442. Its immediate support is around 440.50. Traders can buy ondeclines with SL 440. Closes below this level it can correct up to around 435to 432. It can also bounce from these levels. It can also correct fromresistance levels.
Aluminum Feb 133.7Sell on rise and
buy nearsupport levels
136/139 (Res.)130/128
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 50 DEMA of 135.Traders can sell on rise with SL 136. Closes above this level it can go up toaround 138 to 139. It can also correct from this level. Near support levels itcan give some bounce.
Non - Agri Commodities
Lead Feb 148.5
Buy aroundsupport leveland sell near
resistancelevels
151/153 (Res.)146/143
(Sup.)
It has made a high of 153.50 and given a sharp correction from this level upto 147.50. Its 200 DEMA support is at 147. Traders can buy on declines nearsupport levels with SL 146. Closes below this level it can correct up toaround 143. It can also bounce from this level. It can also correct fromresistance levels.
Zinc Feb 192.75
Buy aroundsupport leveland sell near
resistancelevels
197/201 (Res.)195/190
(Sup.)
It has made a high of 203 and given a sharp correction from this level up to191. Its 200 DEMA support is at 189. Traders can buy on declines nearsupport levels with SL 189. Closes below this level it can correct up toaround 186 to 185. It can also bounce from this level. It can also correctfrom resistance levels.
Nickel Feb 895
Buy aroundsupport leveland sell near
resistancelevels
920/930 (Res.)880/870
(Sup.)
It has made a high of 956 and given a sharp correction from this level up to890. Its 20 DEMA support is at 870. Traders can buy on declines nearsupport levels with SL 870. Closes below this level it can correct up toaround 850. It can also bounce from this level. It can also correct fromresistance levels.
Crude Oil Feb 3760
Buy aroundsupport leveland sell near
resistancelevels
3850/3950(Res.)
3670/3630(Sup.)
Crude oil has made a lower top formation and closed below 50 DEMA of3790. Traders can sell on rise with near SL of 3820. Closes above this level itcan go up to around 3850 to 3890. It can also correct from these levels.
Natural Gas Feb 185 Sell on rise 195/210 (Res.)180/170
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of 207Traders can sell on rise with SL 197. Closes above this level it can go up toaround 205 to 207. It can also correct from this level. Near support levels itcan give some bounce.