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Market OutlookAugust 30, 2013
Dealers DiaryIndian markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias tracking a flat
opening in SGX Nifty. Most of the other Asian markets too are trading in the
positive territory.
US markets ended higher on Thursday benefitting from easing concerns aboutSyria as well as some upbeat economic data. The markets witnessed a strong
upward move in morning trade but gave back some ground in the afternoon trade
and finally closed in the positive territory. While US president said that he has not
decided about military action on Syria, the markets were also buoyed by two
reports on economy including a Labor Department report showing a modest drop
in weekly jobless claims. Another report from Commerce Department showed
stronger than previously estimated GDP growth in the second quarter. European
markets too rose higher shedding the weakness of previous sessions as concerns
over Syria eased.
Indian markets surged on Thursday aided by recovery in the rupee, and a
slide in oil prices triggered by US President Barack Obama's comments onSyria. The rupee rose on the back of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision
on Wednesday to immediately start a facility to meet the daily dollar
requirement of the country's OMCs.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,309/ 5,380 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,547 18,694 / 5,4585,506 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,309/ 5,380 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,163 17,925 / 5,332 5,254 levels.
Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 17,925 18,163 18,309 18,547 18,694
NIFTY 5,254 5,332 5,380 5,458 5,506
News Analysis
RIL gets approval to invest in R-Series Result Review: Mphasis
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (August 28, 2013)
` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 4,066 5,130 (1,064) (6,179) 59,218
MFs 882 1,026 (145) 1,025 (13,321)
FII Derivatives (August 29, 2013)
` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 7,297 6,722 575 8,953
Stock Futures 8,562 7,288 1,274 23,690
Gainers / Losers
Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Muthoot Fin 121 18.6 Adani Power 34 (5.4)
Sesa Goa 193 13.5 Pipavav Defence 55 (4.9)
National Alum 33 11.8 United Phos 137 (3.9)
Reliance Comm 120 8.2 IDBI Bank 55 (3.4)
Bharat Forge 251 7.2 Gitanjali Gems 73 (3.1)
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 2.2 405 18,401
Nifty 2.3 124 5,409
MID CAP 1.5 77 5,301
SMALL CAP 0.7 35 5,181
BSE HC 1.6 141 8,825
BSE PSU 1.1 52 4,960
BANKEX 1.6 164 10,143
AUTO 2.1 210 10,202
METAL 2.4 185 7,948
OIL & GAS 2.9 225 8,095
BSE IT 0.9 72 7,905
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.1 16 14,841NASDAQ 0.8 27 3,620
FTSE 0.8 53 6,483
Nikkei 0.9 121 13,460
Hang Sang 0.8 180 21,705
Straits Times 1.1 34 3,038
Shanghai Com (0.2) (4) 2,097
Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (0.5) (0.3) $46.2
WIT (0.8) (0.1) $9.1IBN (0.3) (0.1) $26.2
HDB 0.1 0.0 $27.9
Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,254 782
Declines 1,001 498
Unchanged 147 102
Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,190
NSE 15,759
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Market OutlookAugust 30, 2013
RIL gets approval to invest in R-Series
Media reports suggest that Reliance Industries (RIL) and its partner BP have
received approvals from DGH to invest US$3.2bn in R-series gas field. RIL-BP will
now aim to commence gas production from satellite fields in the KG-D6 block as
soon as possible. The production from KG-D6 block declined to 18mmscmdcompared to its target to reach over 60mmscmd. Media reports states that
Management Committee has given its approval to commence production of 13-
15mmscmd for 13 years from D-34 discovery in the KG-D6 block. While we await
clarity on the timelines of production, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock withtarget price of `953.
Result Review
Mphasis - 3QFY2013 (CMP: `421/ TP: Under review/ Upside: -)
Mphasis announced its 3QFY2013 numbers which came in broadly inline with our
expectations. The dollar revenues grew by 3% qoq, aided by revenues from Digital
Risk acquisition. Revenues from direct channel (including Digital Risk) grew by
9.9% qoq. Revenues from direct channel on an organic basis grew by 5.2% on a
sequential basis. Revenues from HP channel declined by ~4% qoq. In INR terms
revenues came in at `1,540cr, up 9.6% qoq. The Direct vs. HP business mix shifted
from 45:55 in 3QFY2012 and 54:46 in 2QFY2013 to 59:41 in 3QFY2013 further
mitigating client concentration risk. Pricing remained stable during the quarter
across businesses. EBITDA margin of the company improved by ~100bp qoq to
18.2% despite negative impact from wage hikes given during the quarter, aided by
sharp rupee depreciation. Consequently, PAT came in at `193cr, up 9% qoq,supported by better operational performance. The company added 16 new clients
during the quarter, out of which 10 were added in direct channel. The company
remained committed to increase revenues from direct channel. The stock iscurrently under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 5,875 19.0 801 37.2 16.2 11.3 1.8 5.7 1.1
FY2014E 6,827 21.0 986 47.0 16.9 8.9 1.5 3.8 0.8
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Market OutlookAugust 30, 2013
Economic and Political News
Land Bill cleared by Lok Sabha Commerce Ministry wants exports included in priority lending Port modernisation projects to add 220 million tonnes capacity: Milind Deora RBI should consider monetising gold: Trade Minister SC asks CBI to complete probe in coal field allocation by December Shale oil and gas exploration policy is ready: Petroleum SecretaryCorporate News
Pipavav, L&T consortium gets $170 mn order from ONGC Axis Bank launches travel-currency card for students SBI raises rates on bulk deposits by upto 1.5% Bharti Airtel, SoftBank Mobile develop technology for low-cost 3G services HDFC Bank to open over 300 new branches, hire up to 2,000
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
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Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
August 30, 2013 5:30PM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 2Q 4.80 --
September 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 50.30 --
September 2, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 54.60 --
September 5, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep 5 0.50 0.50
5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Sep 5 0.50 --
September 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 1.20 --
6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Aug 162.00 --
6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Aug 7.40 --
September 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Aug 5.10 --
September 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Aug 2.70 --
September 10, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Aug (6.20) --
4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Aug 11.64 --
11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Aug 9.70 --
September 12, 2013 5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jul (2.20) --
September 17, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Aug 2.80 --
September 18, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Sep 18 0.25 --
11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Sep 18 7.25 --
11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Sep 18 4.00 --
11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Sep 18 6.25 --
October 18, 2013 7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.50 --
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
August 30, 2013
Market Outlook
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Market OutlookAugust 30, 2013
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
9.3
7.7
11.4
9.5
8.69.2
9.9
7.5
6.56.0
5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(%)
(0.1)
2.0
(0.7)
8.4
(1.0) (0.6)
2.5
0.6
3.5
1.9
(2.8)(2.2)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Ju
l-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
(%)
8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3
5.7
4.8 4.6 4.9
5.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ju
l-13
(%)
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ju
l-13
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(15.0)
(12.0)
(9.0)
(6.0)
(3.0)
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ju
l-13
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-1
3
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis Neutral 143 - 2,779 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 21.0 18.8 4.0 3.5 20.0 19.6 1.8 1.6
United Phosphorus Buy 137 225 6,084 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 7.2 6.1 1.1 1.0 17.0 17.2 0.8 0.6
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Amara Raja Batteries Buy 259 305 4,420 3,474 3,952 15.5 15.5 19.0 21.0 13.6 12.3 3.3 2.7 27.2 24.2 1.3 1.1
Apollo Tyres Neutral 64 - 3,223 13,409 15,106 11.8 11.6 13.1 15.4 4.9 4.2 0.8 0.7 17.9 17.8 0.4 0.3
Ashok Leyland Buy 12 18 3,158 12,945 15,049 6.3 8.2 0.2 1.5 68.2 7.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 9.1 0.4 0.3
Automotive Axle# Neutral 198 - 299 700 890 8.7 10.7 11.1 25.8 17.8 7.7 1.1 1.0 6.2 13.9 0.5 0.4
Bajaj Auto Buy 1,742 2,115 50,396 22,042 25,399 19.3 19.3 121.1 1 41.0 14.4 12.4 5.1 4.1 39.4 36.6 1.9 1.5
Bharat Forge Neutral 251 - 5,852 5,942 6,417 15.2 15.5 15.6 19.7 16.1 12.8 2.4 2.1 15.4 17.3 1.2 1.0
Bosch India* Accumulate 8,230 9,096 25,843 9,301 10,895 16.8 18.0 339.9 423.1 24.2 19.5 4.0 3.4 16.6 17.6 2.4 2.0
CEAT Buy 102 170 367 5,159 5,628 9.3 9.0 43.5 48.6 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.3 18.4 17.5 0.2 0.2
Exide Industries Buy 125 148 10,634 6,899 7,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 15.8 13.9 2.7 2.3 18.3 18.0 1.2 1.0
FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,202 - 1,997 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 15.9 11.7 2.0 1.7 13.4 15.8 1.3 1.0
Hero Motocorp Neutral 1,973 - 39,394 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 17.7 13.5 6.5 5.0 40.1 42.1 1.3 1.2
JK Tyre Buy 83 152 341 7,376 8,262 10.0 9.8 56.0 60.9 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 22.7 20.2 0.4 0.4
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 794 1,011 48,890 42,318 48,067 12.0 12.2 58.5 67.1 13.6 11.8 2.7 2.3 21.6 21.1 0.9 0.8
Maruti Buy 1,254 1,571 37,872 45,877 52,733 11.2 11.2 93.0 104.7 13.5 12.0 1.8 1.6 14.2 14.0 0.7 0.5
Motherson Sumi Buy 196 242 11,528 28,442 31,914 8.4 8.7 13.0 16.1 15.1 12.2 4.0 3.1 29.4 28.6 0.5 0.5
Subros Buy 19 23 113 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 8.1 4.9 0.4 0.4 4.8 7.6 0.3 0.3
Tata Motors Buy 306 355 82,412 215,043 240,077 13.5 13.7 35.1 39.4 8.7 7.8 2.0 1.6 26.2 23.3 0.4 0.4
TVS Motor Buy 30 36 1,447 7,659 8,528 6.0 6.2 4.9 5.9 6.3 5.1 1.0 0.9 17.8 19.0 0.1 0.1
Capital Goods
ABB* Neutral 456 - 9,663 8,037 9,087 5.8 6.9 12.2 17.0 37.4 26.8 3.6 3.5 9.8 13.1 1.2 1.0
BGR Energy Neutral 100 - 722 3,541 4,041 11.8 10.7 21.1 22.9 4.7 4.4 0.6 0.5 21.8 19.5 0.5 0.4
BHEL Neutral 118 - 28,759 42,227 38,453 16.0 14.4 18.8 15.0 6.3 7.8 1.3 1.2 21.7 15.4 0.5 0.6
Blue Star Buy 133 208 1,193 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 22.2 14.3 2.8 2.4 12.9 18.0 0.5 0.5
Crompton Greaves Buy 83 103 5,315 13,418 14,654 5.8 6.7 5.8 7.8 14.3 10.6 1.4 1.3 10.1 12.5 0.5 0.5
Jyoti Structures Neutral 18 - 145 3,312 3,555 9.0 9.0 4.5 6.5 3.9 2.7 0.2 0.2 5.6 7.7 0.3 0.3
KEC International Buy 24 36 618 7,709 8,399 6.2 6.9 5.1 8.1 4.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 16.6 21.5 0.3 0.2
Thermax Neutral 544 - 6,480 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 18.9 16.5 3.1 2.7 17.2 17.3 1.1 1.0
Cement
ACC Buy 959 1,225 18,013 11,581 13,009 17.6 19.3 63.9 81.5 15.0 11.8 2.3 2.0 15.6 18.2 1.3 1.1
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Stock Watch
August 30, 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements Neutral 164 - 25,332 9,975 11,409 22.4 23.1 9.4 11.1 17.5 14.7 2.7 2.4 15.7 17.2 2.0 1.7
India Cements Neutral 44 - 1,355 4,796 5,357 16.4 16.1 7.3 9.5 6.0 4.7 0.4 0.4 6.4 8.0 0.7 0.6
J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 55 79 652 2,235 2,684 19.4 21.4 15.0 18.4 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 13.2 14.3 0.4 0.9
Madras Cements Neutral 144 - 3,418 4,010 4,524 23.5 23.4 14.9 18.3 9.7 7.9 1.3 1.1 14.0 15.2 1.5 1.3
Shree Cement^ Neutral 3,519 - 12,260 6,316 7,162 26.5 25.7 294.6 340.5 12.0 10.3 2.6 2.1 24.0 22.7 1.5 1.1
UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,447 - 39,664 22,021 25,274 22.0 21.6 99.5 113.3 14.5 12.8 2.3 2.0 16.7 16.6 1.8 1.7
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon Buy 45 60 716 1,912 2,131 21.0 21.5 5.0 5.5 9.0 8.3 0.7 0.6 8.8 7.6 1.7 1.7
Consolidated Co Neutral 6 - 111 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (2.0) (16.6) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5
IRB Infra Buy 62 106 2,076 3,805 4,248 45.1 45.3 15.0 15.8 4.2 4.0 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.9 2.8 3.0
ITNL Buy 117 156 2,277 7,423 7,970 27.5 28.7 30.3 32.0 3.9 3.7 0.6 0.5 15.0 14.0 2.4 2.5
IVRCL Infra Neutral 10 - 315 5,673 5,892 7.8 7.6 (1.7) (2.0) (6.2) (5.2) 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6
Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 34 41 7,456 12,946 14,897 24.7 25.6 1.2 2.7 27.4 12.6 0.6 0.5 2.0 4.3 2.5 2.2
Larsen & Toubro Buy 722 1,002 66,817 68,946 78,040 10.0 10.0 49.0 55.2 14.7 13.1 2.1 1.9 14.9 15.3 1.1 1.0
Nagarjuna Const. Buy 18 30 454 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 6.6 4.9 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.4 0.4
Punj Lloyd Neutral 21 - 699 12,726 14,226 8.2 8.2 0.9 1.0 24.5 20.6 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6
Sadbhav Engg. Buy 56 99 842 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.3 6.0 10.6 9.3 0.9 0.9 9.2 9.6 0.6 0.6
Simplex Infra Buy 40 56 198 6,237 6,908 9.1 9.0 9.9 13.9 4.1 2.9 0.2 0.1 3.7 5.0 0.5 0.4
Unity Infra Neutral 18 - 133 2,146 2,339 12.9 13.0 9.3 9.6 1.9 1.9 0.2 0.1 8.0 7.7 0.6 0.7
Financials
Allahabad Bank Neutral 67 - 3,338 6,843 7,528 2.5 2.5 26.0 30.1 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 - -
Andhra Bank Neutral 51 - 2,834 4,868 5,390 2.4 2.5 12.3 16.6 4.1 3.1 0.4 0.4 7.9 10.0 - -
Axis Bank Buy 851 1,023 39,905 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 6.5 5.4 1.1 0.9 17.3 18.1 - -
Bank of Baroda Neutral 452 - 19,060 15,896 17,947 2.2 2.3 95.4 124.4 4.7 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.0 14.2 - -
Bank of India Neutral 133 - 7,926 14,482 16,069 2.3 2.2 55.0 62.2 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.3 13.7 13.9 - -
Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 37 - 2,467 4,529 4,780 3.0 2.8 12.3 11.8 3.0 3.2 0.5 0.4 16.5 14.1 - -
Canara Bank Neutral 196 - 8,674 11,454 12,378 2.0 2.0 52.4 60.5 3.7 3.2 0.4 0.4 9.8 10.4 - -
Central Bank Neutral 51 - 5,364 8,196 9,202 2.4 2.4 6.1 15.9 8.5 3.2 0.6 0.5 5.2 12.8 - -
Corporation Bank Neutral 251 - 3,835 5,641 6,083 2.0 2.0 82.7 98.1 3.0 2.6 0.4 0.4 12.6 13.5 - -
Dena Bank Neutral 43 - 1,509 3,307 3,531 2.2 2.4 17.5 21.6 2.5 2.0 0.3 0.3 11.9 13.2 - -
Federal Bank Neutral 271 - 4,629 2,798 3,250 3.0 3.0 38.1 51.9 7.1 5.2 0.7 0.6 9.8 12.3 - -
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Stock Watch
August 30, 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Financials
HDFC Neutral 695 - 108,097 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 18.5 15.6 3.9 3.5 30.1 30.7 - -
HDFC Bank Buy 572 692 136,612 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 15.8 12.7 3.2 2.7 21.9 22.8 - -
ICICI Bank Buy 807 951 93,119 25,727 29,969 3.2 3.2 83.2 96.7 9.7 8.3 1.3 1.2 14.9 15.4 - -
IDBI Bank Neutral 55 - 7,297 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 3.5 2.5 0.4 0.3 10.2 13.3 - -
Indian Bank Neutral 63 - 2,708 5,940 6,396 2.7 2.7 24.9 32.9 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.2 10.3 12.4 - -
IOB Neutral 39 - 3,618 7,692 8,627 2.2 2.3 8.1 15.2 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.3 5.9 10.5 - -
J & K Bank Neutral 1,112 - 5,389 3,038 3,370 3.7 3.9 214.2 202.6 5.2 5.5 1.0 0.8 19.8 16.3 - -
LIC Housing Finance Neutral 164 - 8,294 2,001 2,495 2.2 2.3 23.8 28.8 6.9 5.7 1.2 1.0 17.3 18.2 - -
Oriental Bank Neutral 125 - 3,644 6,918 7,459 2.6 2.5 46.7 52.5 2.7 2.4 0.3 0.3 10.8 11.1 - -
Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 425 - 15,039 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.4 14.4 15.7 - -
South Ind.Bank Neutral 20 - 2,635 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.3 4.7 0.8 0.7 16.2 16.2 - -
St Bk of India Neutral 1,489 - 101,870 65,392 74,467 3.0 3.0 178.5 226.1 8.3 6.6 1.1 0.9 12.1 14.0 - -
Syndicate Bank Neutral 64 - 3,865 6,740 7,512 2.5 2.5 21.0 23.5 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.3 12.6 12.8 - -
UCO Bank Neutral 53 - 3,966 6,770 7,017 2.8 2.6 14.8 15.5 3.6 3.4 0.6 0.5 14.4 13.5 - -
Union Bank Neutral 99 - 5,884 10,458 11,809 2.5 2.5 32.0 40.6 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.3 11.6 13.4 - -
United Bank Neutral 30 - 1,126 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.2 10.0 14.7 - -
Vijaya Bank Neutral 35 - 1,732 2,718 2,941 1.8 1.9 7.0 9.0 5.0 3.9 0.4 0.4 8.2 9.8 - -
Yes Bank Neutral 232 - 8,369 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 5.4 4.7 1.2 1.0 23.9 22.8 - -
FMCG
Asian Paints Neutral 403 - 38,656 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 13.9 16.0 29.0 25.1 9.2 7.3 35.2 32.5 3.0 2.5
Britannia Neutral 704 - 8,436 6,422 7,367 6.9 7.3 24.2 29.7 29.1 23.7 10.3 7.9 39.6 37.7 1.3 1.1
Colgate Neutral 1,225 - 16,665 3,588 4,130 18.9 19.4 41.2 48.4 29.8 25.3 26.4 20.5 100.0 91.0 4.5 3.8
Dabur India Neutral 160 - 27,872 7,183 8,297 16.8 16.9 5.4 6.3 29.9 25.4 10.5 8.3 39.2 36.7 3.9 3.4
GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,969 - 16,692 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 32.5 26.7 10.1 8.1 34.1 33.7 4.2 3.4
Godrej Consumer Neutral 819 - 27,884 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 32.6 27.6 7.0 5.8 24.9 24.2 3.7 3.2
HUL Neutral 606 - 131,082 28,415 31,962 13.6 14.1 16.7 18.2 36.3 33.3 34.9 25.3 112.2 88.1 4.5 4.0
ITC Neutral 306 - 242,124 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 27.1 22.9 8.9 7.2 36.1 34.9 6.7 5.7
Marico Neutral 211 - 13,606 5,104 5,876 15.1 15.2 7.2 8.6 29.5 24.6 5.7 4.7 21.1 20.9 2.7 2.3
Nestle* Neutral 4,683 - 45,149 9,330 10,860 21.8 21.9 123.3 149.7 38.0 31.3 18.7 13.6 56.4 50.3 4.9 4.1
Tata Global Neutral 138 - 8,531 8,070 8,958 9.8 9.9 7.6 8.5 18.2 16.2 2.1 2.0 9.3 9.7 1.1 0.9
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^ Accumulate 1,017 1,070 70,906 32,266 35,103 23.5 22.6 69.7 74.0 14.6 13.8 4.0 3.2 26.5 23.0 2.0 1.7
Hexaware* Neutral 129 - 3,851 2,273 2,575 22.2 21.5 12.4 13.4 10.4 9.6 2.6 2.3 25.4 23.5 1.5 1.3
Infosys Neutral 3,109 - 178,530 48,731 52,962 26.9 27.1 180.8 200.3 17.2 15.5 3.7 3.2 20.4 19.3 3.0 2.7
Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 181 190 2,018 2,128 2,341 17.2 17.6 21.3 23.2 8.5 7.8 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5
KPIT Cummins Buy 133 155 2,580 2,769 3,122 18.3 17.8 15.3 16.6 8.7 8.0 1.8 1.5 20.9 18.4 0.9 0.7
Mindtree Neutral 1,027 - 4,267 2,871 3,110 20.4 20.7 102.6 111.2 10.0 9.2 2.4 1.9 24.8 20.3 1.2 1.0
Mphasis& Accumulate 420 450 8,826 6,827 7,342 21.0 21.2 47.0 51.3 8.9 8.2 1.6 1.4 14.3 14.2 0.8 0.7
NIIT Neutral 20 - 324 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.6 3.7 0.5 0.4 10.3 12.0 0.1 -
Persistent Neutral 586 - 2,344 1,590 1,774 23.5 23.8 48.5 56.9 12.1 10.3 2.0 1.7 16.4 16.1 1.1 0.9
TCS Neutral 1,946 - 380,905 80,353 91,576 30.0 30.0 91.0 103.2 21.4 18.9 6.9 5.5 31.5 29.2 4.5 3.9
Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,367 1,485 31,758 17,749 19,406 22.5 21.0 113.6 114.2 12.0 12.0 3.5 2.8 27.9 22.1 1.5 1.3
Wipro Neutral 474 - 116,929 43,610 47,320 21.6 22.2 30.0 33.0 15.8 14.4 3.5 3.0 20.7 19.4 2.2 1.9
Media
D B Corp Accumulate 239 267 4,382 1,783 1,968 23.8 25.0 13.6 16.0 17.6 14.9 4.3 3.7 22.5 22.9 2.4 2.1
HT Media Buy 93 112 2,177 2,205 2,380 14.1 14.4 7.6 8.4 12.2 11.0 1.4 1.2 10.7 10.7 0.6 0.5
Jagran Prakashan Buy 81 104 2,693 1,683 1,845 19.7 20.8 5.9 6.9 13.8 11.8 2.6 2.4 19.4 21.2 1.7 1.5
PVR Neutral 390 - 1,549 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 22.6 18.1 2.3 2.1 10.3 12.0 1.6 1.4
Sun TV Network Neutral 388 - 15,273 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 19.4 16.6 4.8 4.2 26.4 27.3 6.3 5.6
Metals & Mining
Bhushan Steel Reduce 456 419 10,339 12,640 15,667 28.5 31.5 25.9 38.6 17.6 11.8 1.0 1.0 6.1 8.5 2.6 2.1
Coal India Neutral 250 - 157,878 68,303 69,884 32.5 30.3 27.5 25.0 9.1 10.0 3.4 2.4 40.2 33.1 1.5 1.4
Electrosteel Castings Buy 11 15 356 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 0.1 1.2 170.9 9.0 0.1 - 0.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
GMDC Buy 83 115 2,649 1,701 1,985 47.8 48.8 17.4 20.6 4.8 4.0 0.9 0.8 20.7 20.9 1.1 0.8
Hind. Zinc Buy 120 143 50,894 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 7.9 7.1 1.4 1.2 18.5 18.0 1.9 1.5
Hindalco Neutral 107 - 20,467 95,465 102,491 8.4 9.0 13.9 17.2 7.7 6.2 0.6 0.5 7.6 8.7 0.6 0.5
JSW Steel Neutral 569 - 13,765 45,022 48,140 16.0 15.9 68.5 77.0 8.3 7.4 0.8 0.7 9.3 9.7 0.8 0.7
MOIL Accumulate 212 223 3,561 956 982 42.3 44.3 25.3 26.2 8.4 8.1 1.2 1.1 14.6 13.7 1.1 1.1
Monnet Ispat Buy 107 139 683 2,199 2,575 21.6 22.8 30.7 38.6 3.5 2.8 0.3 0.2 7.7 8.9 1.4 1.1
Nalco Neutral 33 - 8,556 7,270 7,521 13.6 13.8 2.8 2.9 12.0 11.5 0.7 0.7 5.9 6.0 0.6 0.6
NMDC Buy 120 142 47,577 10,718 11,514 66.6 64.5 15.5 16.1 7.8 7.5 1.6 1.4 21.2 20.0 2.3 2.2
SAIL Neutral 47 - 19,267 44,060 54,227 9.2 10.9 5.3 6.8 8.8 6.9 0.5 0.5 5.2 6.5 0.7 0.6
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Metals & Mining
Sesa Goa* Neutral 193 - 16,730 3,817 5,781 12.1 17.7 27.0 29.6 7.1 6.5 0.9 0.8 12.9 12.5 5.2 3.4
Tata Steel Accumulate 278 317 27,029 153,862 167,209 9.4 10.5 32.8 53.5 8.5 5.2 0.7 0.7 9.0 13.2 0.5 0.5
Sarda Buy 82 98 295 1,323 1,398 17.2 17.9 25.3 27.8 3.3 3.0 0.3 0.3 9.5 9.6 0.6 0.5
Prakash Industries Buy 31 37 411 2,486 2,637 15.2 15.0 13.7 14.2 2.2 2.2 0.2 0.2 9.1 8.7 0.4 0.3
Godawari Power andIspat
Accumulate 72 78 237 2,171 2,317 14.9 15.8 36.4 46.6 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.2 11.6 13.0 0.5 0.4
Oil & Gas
Cairn India Accumulate 325 364 62,071 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 5.2 5.7 1.1 0.9 22.6 17.8 2.2 1.9GAIL Neutral 289 - 36,646 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 8.8 8.7 1.3 1.2 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2
ONGC Buy 249 350 212,604 164,816 196,050 33.7 36.6 30.0 38.7 8.3 6.4 1.3 1.1 16.0 18.5 1.0 0.7
Reliance Indus tr ies Accumulate 845 953 273,094 417,018 442,434 8.4 8.4 70.3 75.2 12.0 11.3 1.2 1.1 12.0 11.6 0.6 0.6
Gujarat Gas* Neutral 195 - 2,495 3,270 3,414 12.8 12.6 22.6 23.1 8.6 8.4 2.3 2.0 28.2 25.6 0.6 0.5
Indraprastha Gas Neutral 255 - 3,565 3,656 4,456 21.5 18.6 25.7 26.8 9.9 9.5 2.0 1.7 22.1 19.6 1.0 0.8
Petronet LNG Accumulate 119 135 8,929 39,449 43,315 5.3 5.9 14.1 16.9 8.5 7.1 1.7 1.4 21.7 21.9 0.3 0.3
Gujarat State PetronetLtd.
Buy 50 67 2,805 1,002 1,021 91.4 91.5 8.2 8.4 6.1 6.0 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.0 2.3 2.1
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma Buy 132 165 2,494 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.5 13.8 12.6 9.6 3.9 2.9 34.4 34.7 1.5 1.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy 181 271 5,284 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.5 8.8 1.7 1.4 19.5 18.9 1.3 1.1
Aventis* Neutral 2,381 - 5,484 1,682 1,917 15.6 15.6 91.9 101.7 25.9 23.4 3.7 3.6 15.6 17.1 2.8 2.2
Cadila Healthcare Buy 656 894 13,441 7,123 8,367 15.5 15.7 37.3 44.7 17.6 14.7 3.7 3.1 22.9 22.9 2.2 1.9
Cipla Buy 397 477 31,896 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 18.9 16.7 3.0 2.6 17.2 16.8 3.2 2.7
Dr Reddy's Accumulate 2,250 2,535 38,251 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.1 126.6 20.1 17.8 4.3 3.6 23.5 21.8 3.0 2.5
Dishman Pharma Buy 41 73 331 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 14.8 16.6 2.8 2.5 0.3 0.3 10.8 11.0 0.9 0.7
GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,286 - 19,366 2,744 2,964 22.0 23.4 59.2 66.6 38.6 34.3 9.6 9.3 24.9 27.5 6.2 5.7
Indoco Remedies Buy 61 78 566 747 906 15.3 15.3 5.9 7.6 10.4 8.1 1.2 1.1 12.5 14.4 1.0 0.8
Ipca labs Accumulate 620 674 7,816 3,246 3,830 20.5 21.7 36.2 44.9 17.1 13.8 4.0 3.2 26.1 25.7 2.6 2.1
Lupin Accumulate 809 904 36,233 11,576 13,855 22.0 22.0 35.8 43.0 22.6 18.8 5.5 4.4 27.1 25.8 3.2 2.6
Ranbaxy* Neutral 418 - 17,683 10,400 11,331 6.6 8.4 11.4 15.2 36.7 27.5 3.9 3.4 11.1 13.1 1.8 1.6
Sun Pharma Neutral 511 - 105,740 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 16.5 19.9 30.9 25.7 6.2 5.2 22.0 22.0 7.3 6.1
Power
GIPCL Accumulate 57 65 864 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.4
NTPC Buy 130 163 107,562 75,046 81,780 23.5 23.9 12.7 13.6 10.3 9.6 1.2 1.1 12.2 12.0 2.1 2.1
Real Estate
DLF Buy 131 179 23,386 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 23.0 19.5 0.8 0.8 3.7 4.1 4.9 4.1
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Real Estate
MLIFE Buy 414 483 1,691 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 12.2 9.8 1.2 1.1 9.9 11.2 2.5 2.2
Telecom
Bharti Airtel Buy 299 350 119,502 83,535 92,173 32.0 33.1 9.2 12.9 32.6 23.1 2.1 2.0 6.8 8.9 2.1 1.8
Idea Cellular Neutral 158 - 52,504 26,717 29,443 30.6 29.8 5.5 6.7 29.1 23.5 3.2 2.8 11.1 12.0 2.3 2.0
Rcom Neutral 120 - 24,830 22,050 23,647 30.6 30.8 3.2 5.2 37.7 23.1 0.7 0.7 1.9 3.1 2.8 2.5
Others
Abbott India* Buy 1,368 1,628 2,907 1,788 1,996 12.5 12.7 71.7 81.4 19.1 16.8 3.9 3.3 21.7 21.2 1.4 1.2
Bajaj Electricals Buy 156 184 1,560 3,885 4,472 4.0 5.8 6.8 15.4 23.2 10.2 2.0 1.8 8.8 17.3 0.4 0.4
Cera Sanitaryware Buy 477 613 604 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 11.2 9.3 2.7 2.1 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8
Cravatex Buy 266 307 69 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 9.8 7.0 1.5 1.3 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4
Finolex Cables Buy 52 68 789 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.1 4.6 0.7 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2
Force Motors Buy 278 349 362 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 9.9 6.4 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1
Goodyear India* Accumulate 300 345 692 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.3 8.1 1.7 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.2
Hitachi Buy 105 153 285 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 5.7 5.5 1.0 0.9 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3
Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,359 - 2,085 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 21.2 18.0 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.9 1.0 0.9
IFB Agro Buy 134 156 121 491 642 12.3 13.8 35.0 50.9 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.5 18.2 21.6 0.2 0.1
ITD Cementation Buy 140 194 161 1,365 1,502 10.9 11.2 18.2 28.0 7.7 5.0 0.4 0.4 5.1 7.4 0.5 0.5
Jyothy Laboratories Buy 155 199 2,573 1,244 1,523 14.1 14.2 5.9 10.0 26.2 15.6 3.1 2.7 12.7 18.8 2.4 1.9
MRF Buy 13,082 16,218 5,548 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.3 7.3 1.5 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.5
Page Industries Buy 3,956 4,669 4,412 1,059 1,296 19.5 19.8 125.0 155.6 31.7 25.4 15.7 11.5 56.3 52.2 4.3 3.5
Relaxo Footwears Buy 738 981 885 1,196 1,401 11.9 12.6 55.6 75.4 13.3 9.8 3.2 2.4 27.1 28.1 0.9 0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 183 228 172 1,158 1,322 10.6 11.0 60.5 75.9 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.4 16.8 18.1 0.4 0.3
Styrolution ABS India* Buy 342 492 601 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 11.3 9.7 1.3 1.1 11.7 12.2 0.6 0.5
TAJ GVK Buy 55 108 343 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 6.9 6.0 0.9 0.8 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.2
Tata Sponge Iron Buy 257 371 395 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)
TTK Healthcare Buy 502 632 390 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 31.0 19.8 3.8 3.4 12.6 18.1 0.8 0.7
Tree House Buy 227 297 817 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 18.3 14.5 2.2 1.9 11.8 13.1 5.5 4.2
TVS Srichakra Buy 168 230 129 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 30.5 38.3 5.5 4.4 0.7 0.7 13.5 15.5 0.3 0.2
United Spirits Neutral 2,129 - 30,942 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 50.6 31.5 3.6 3.2 9.1 10.7 2.9 2.5
Vesuvius India* Buy 352 439 715 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 9.9 9.6 1.8 1.5 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9
HSIL Buy 80 117 527 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.5 4.9 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 29, 2013*Note: Sesa Goa's numbers reflect the standalone Sesa Goa business only. We will revise our numbers once the consolidated entity Sesa- Sterlite is formed.
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Market OutlookAugust 30, 2013