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Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

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    Market Outlook May 30, 2013

    Electrosteel gets nod from lenders to restructure ` 6,000cr loan

    Media reports suggest that Electrosteel castings associate Electrosteel Steels hasapproached its lenders to recast its ` 6,000cr loan. The Lenders have in-principleagreed to restructure the company's loan, a move that will give Electrosteel more

    time to repay its dues. The lead bank would now refer the loan to the corporatedebt restructuring (CDR) cell in June 2013. According to this scheme the lenderswill have to sacrifice close to ` 1, 000cr, while the company will have to infuseabout ` 200cr. This move is positive for Electrosteel steels since it will help reducesome amount of debt and interest cost. However, this will make it difficult for thecompany to raise funds in future. We maintain our Buy view on Electrosteelcastings with a target price of ` 26.

    Result Review

    ONGC (CMP: ` 334/ TP: ` 354/ Upside: 6%)

    ONGC reported lower than expected 4QFY2013 profitability performance due tohigher operating costs . The companys top line increased by 13.6% yoy to

    ` 21,388cr (above our expectation of ` 19,938cr). The companys c rude oilproduction volumes declined 1.8% yoy to 6.47mn tonnes while gas volumes stoodat 6.2bcm. The company shared a subsidy burden of ` 12,310cr in 4QFY2013.The company's EBITDA decreased by 7.3% yoy to ` 10,731cr. Depreciationexpenses grew by 76.9% yoy to ` 2,387cr which resulted in net profit declining by 39.9% yoy to ` 3,389cr (below our expectation of ` 4,172cr). The company hasnotified two new gas discoveries in KG basin deepwater field. The company estimates a potential gas reserve base of 4.85TCF from these fields. We maintain

    our accumulate view on the stock with a target price of ` 354.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 157,962 35.1 29,327 34.3 18.2 9.8 1.7 4.4 1.6

    FY2015E 175,367 36.2 33,600 39.3 18.6 8.5 1.5 3.9 1.4

    Tata Motors (CMP: ` 304/ TP: Under review/ Upside: -)

    For 4QFY2013, Tata Motors (TTMT) consolidated performance better than our aswell as street expectations on all broader fronts, as strong operating performancefrom JLR offset soft performance at standalone biz and other subsidiaries. Thestandalone operations posted loss of ` 312cr, against our expectations of a net lossof ~ ` 490cr, primarily on account of higher discounts and higher operating costsfor transport operators impacting demand for MHCV industry. The consolidatedtop-line registered a strong sequential growth of 21.5% qoq to ` 56,002cr, whichwas above our estimate of ` 50,605cr on account of strong performance from JLR.The JLR top-line grew by ~22% yoy to GBP 5,053mn, led by ramp-up in volumesof the new Range Rover

    On a sequential basis, consolidated EBITDA margins grew by ~160bp qoq to at14.9% (~+80bp yoy) vs. our expectations of 12.5%, driven by the robustperformance of JLR, which was underlined by the favorable impact of the newRange Rover. JLR margins came in at 16.9% (+230bp yoy, +290bp qoq)benefitting from better geographic/product mix and favorable currency.

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    Market Outlook May 30, 2013

    Depreciation expense in JLR at GBP 213mn (+73% yoy) continues to maintainupward trajectory as new products/platforms got amortized. Adjusted net profit atGBP 466mn was marginally ahead of estimates. Standalone margins stood at3.6% (-600bp yoy, +140 bps qoq). On consolidated level, adjusted net profitcame in at ` 3,931, beating our estimate of ` 2,298cr, aided by ~19% qoq lower

    tax, driven by a tax credit for past income tax losses of GBP 225mn in a UK subsidiary. As of 4QFY2013, on a consolidated level, TTMT has a healthy net autodebt/equity of ~0.24x.

    While the 4QFY2013 results are on expected lines, managements commentary did not indicate any major signs of a revival in domestic business soon. In trucks,TTMT has contained inventory and discounts at the cost of market share. Company remains cautiously optimistic on JLR, with the key positive being the JLR modelcycle; the company stated that margins on new Range Rover and Range RoverSport are good. We are still in the process of revising our numbers and thereforethe rating is under review.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 209,065 12.8 10,742 32.8 23.4 9.3 2.0 4.3 0.5

    FY2015E 230,032 13.5 13,121 39.5 23.3 7.7 1.6 3.6 0.5

    NMDC (CMP: ` 117 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

    NMDCs 4QFY2013 profitability performance was lower -than-expected due tohigher than expected increase in costs. NMDCs net sales increased by 23.4% yoy to ` 3,202cr (above our estimates of ` 2,659cr) mainly due to higher volumes whichincreased 28.0% yoy to 8.2MT. EBITDA however declined by 11.3% yoy to

    ` 1,750cr because of higher employee costs and other expenses. Other incomewas flat yoy ` 547cr. Consequently, net profit decreased by 10.8% yoy to ` 1,464cr(below our estimate of ` 1,721cr). We keep our rating and target price underreview.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 9,426 71.3 5,987 15.1 18.9 7.8 1.4 3.7 2.6

    FY2015E 10,746 72.2 6,438 16.2 17.7 7.3 1.2 3.1 2.2

    Cipla (CMP: ` 402/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

    Cipla posted below expected numbers during the quarter. Cipla posted a growthin net sales by 5.1% to ` 1,906cr V/s expected ` 2,057cr. The low growth during thequarter on sales front, was on account of the low growth in domestic formulation,which grew by 5.2% yoy, while exports grew by 4.0%, on account of the 24% dip inthe API exports. On the operating front, the OPM (excluding technical know-howfees) came in at 18.3%, down by 80bp over the corresponding period of last year.This along with the 684% rise in the interest expenses aided the net profit to dip by 8.3% yoy to ` 268cr. The number and rating of the company are under review.

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    Market Outlook May 30, 2013

    providing depreciation on split grinding plants pushed up depreciation costs by ` 11.5cr for the quarter. The company also incurred ` 16cr (depreciation chargepertaining to earlier years) of extra-ordinary expenses due to the change indepreciation methodology. Recurring PAT fell by 33% yoy to ` 50cr. We maintain aBuy on the stock with a target Price of ` 143.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*

    Mar ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)

    FY2014E 2,313 19.8 174 16.0 13.2 6.5 0.8 5.3 40

    FY2015E 2,728 20.7 239 22.1 15.8 4.8 0.7 4.0

    Note: *Computed on TTM basis

    Monnet Ispat & Energy (CMP: ` 164/ TP: ` 291/ Upside: 77%)

    Monnet Ispat reported disappointing 4QFY2013 results. The net sales declined by 9.2% yoy to ` 432cr mainly due to weak performance from steel business. EBITDA declined by 22.4% yoy to ` 107cr due to higher staff cost. Interest expenses anddepreciation expenses grew by 25.0% and 21% yoy to ` 30cr and ` 23crrespectively on account of capitalization of various projects. Consequently, netprofit decreased by 36.1% yoy to ` 53cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stockwith a target price of ` 291.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 2,883 21.7 270 40.3 10.1 4.1 0.4 5.7 1.2

    FY2015E 3,181 23.6 386 57.7 13.0 2.9 0.3 4.3 1.0

    Result Preview

    Mahindra and Mahindra (CMP: ` 960/ TP: ` 1,006/ Upside: 5%)

    Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) will be announcing its 4QFY2013 results today. Weexpect the companys top -line to register a healthy growth of 10% yoy to

    ` 10,150cr backed by ~7% yoy growth in volumes led by the automotive segment(largely on account of the incremental volumes of newly launched Quanto) . Thetractor volumes however remained weak and registered a decline of ~5% yoy led

    by the weakness in the domestic markets. On the operating front, EBITDA marginis expected to expand ~70bp yoy to 11%. The bottom-line for the quarterhowever, is expected to remain flat at ` 773cr. At ` 960, the stock is trading at14.1x FY2015E earnings. Currently, we have an Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP based target price of ` 1,006.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 44,550 11.4 3,508 59.6 22.3 16.1 3.3 8.9 0.9

    FY2015E 50,260 11.7 4,021 68.3 21.6 14.1 2.8 7.3 0.8

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    Market Outlook May 30, 2013

    SAIL (CMP: ` 60/ TP:-/ Upside :-)

    SAIL isexpected to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the companystop line to decline by 13.1% yoy to ` 11,640cr due to lower realisations. We expectEBITDA margin to contract by 165bp yoy to 12.3% on account of higher staff costs

    and other expenses. The bottom line is expected to fall by 14.9% yoy to ` 725cr.We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 52,280 10.5 2,636 6.4 6.2 9.4 0.6 7.3 0.8

    FY2015E 62,963 11.5 3,045 7.4 6.9 8.1 0.5 7.0 0.8

    Cadila Healthcare (CMP: ` 787/ TP: ` 962/ Upside: 22%)

    Cadila Healthcare is expected to post 15.9% growth in net sales to ` 1,558cr onthe back of robust growth on the exports front. On the OPM front, we expect thecompany's OPM to expand by 220bp yoy to 19.2% on the back of favourableproduct mix. The net profit is expected to decrease by 14.3% yoy to ` 146cr, onback of higher tax outgo. We maintain our buy with a target of ` 962.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 7,386 18.0 808 39.5 24.8 19.9 4.5 13.5 2.4

    FY2015E 8,543 18.0 984 48.1 16.2 16.4 3.7 11.1 2.0

    IPCA Labs (CMP: ` 591/ TP: ` 676/ Upside: -14%)

    We estimate Ipca Laboratories' top-line to grow by 39.2% to ` 770cr for4QFY2013. The OPM is expected to expand by 30bp yoy to 19.0%. The adjustednet profit is expected to grow by 58.0% yoy on back of top-line growth. Wemaintain an accumulate on the stock with a target of 676.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 3,474 21.0 470 37.3 26.4 15.9 3.7 11.0 2.3

    FY2015E 4,168 21.0 568 45.1 25.3 13.1 3.0 9.0 1.9

    Aurobindo Pharma (CMP: ` 177/ TP: ` 264/ Upside: -49%)

    Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals is expected to post a net sales growth of 5.3% yoy. Themargin is likely to expand to 18.3% vs 10.2% in the corresponding period of lastyear, which will lead to a net profit of ` 194.2cr vs a net profit of ` 108.5cr,respectively. We maintain our buy with a target of 264.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 6,279 16.0 443 15.2 19.2 11.6 1.5 8.1 1.3

    FY2015E 7,033 16.0 559 19.2 18.0 9.2 1.3 7.0 1.1

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    Market Outlook May 30, 2013

    Madras Cements (CMP: ` 245/ TP:-/ Upside: -)

    Madras Cements is expected to post its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect thetop-line to grow by 19.1% yoy to ` 1,086cr. OPM is expected to increase by 96bpyoy to 22.8%. Bottom-line is expected to decline by 6.3% yoy to ` 93cr. We

    maintain a Neutral rating on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*

    Mar ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)

    FY2014E 4,293 27.4 518 21.8 19.6 11.3 2.0 6.8 91

    FY2015E 4,855 28.6 672 28.2 21.3 8.7 1.7 5.3

    Note: *Computed on TTM basis

    Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: ` 108 / TP: ` 153 / Upside: 42%)

    We expect Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) to post weak numbers on account of highbase of 4QFY2012 and lower-than-expected execution. Revenue is expected todecline by 49.6% to ` 456cr. However, on a sequential basis, it implies a growth of29%. EBITDA margin is expected to witness a jump of 89bp yoy to 10.4% onaccount of low EBITDAM posted in 4QFY2012 due to higher sub-contractingcharges. On the earnings front, the company is expected to post a dip of 74.3%yoy to ` 12cr. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of ` 153.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 2,511 10.6 109 7.3 13.3 14.9 1.9 2.4 0.3FY2015E 2,736 10.6 117 7.8 12.7 13.9 1.7 2.2 0.2

    IVRCL (CMP: ` 19/ TP: ` 35/ Upside: 87%)

    We expect IVRCL to continue with its poor performance in 4QFY2013. On therevenue front, it is expected to post a yoy decline of 4.9% to ` 1,520cr on the backof slowdown in execution. On the EBITDA margin front, we expect an expansion of226bp yoy to 8.7%. The company is expected to post a bottom-line loss of ` 22crvs a profit of ` 5cr in 4QFY2012, primarily on account of slowdown in executionand higher interest costs for the quarter. We maintain a Buy rating on the stockwith a Target Price of ` 35.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 6,287 8.5 72 2.3 3.3 7.9 0.3 6.1 0.5FY2015E 6,836 8.5 93 3.0 4.2 6.1 0.3 5.8 0.5

    Simplex Infrastructures (CMP: ` 105/ TP: ` 164/ Upside: 56%)

    Simplex Infrastructures is expected to post a subdued performance on the revenuefront, as we expect the top-line to decline by 5.8% yoy to ` 1,691cr for 4QFY2013owing to slow moving order book. We expect EBITDA margin to expand by 10bpto 8.8%. The bottom-line is expected at ` 21cr for the quarter, indicating a declineof 19.4% yoy. This is mainly on account of lower-than-expected revenue growthduring the quarter. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of ` 164.

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    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 6,802 9.2 89 18.0 6.8 5.8 0.4 4.9 0.5FY2015E 7,540 9.4 116 23.4 8.3 4.5 0.4 4.6 0.4

    Unity Infraprojects (CMP: ` 31/ TP: ` 45 / Upside: 45%)

    Unity Infraprojects (UIP) is expected to post a 16.0% yoy growth on the top-linefront to ` 833cr for 4QFY2013. We expect the company's EBITDA margin to fall by 74bp to 11.7%. Despite revenue growth, the company's earnings are expected topost a decline of 5.7% yoy to ` 36cr on account of low EBITDAM and higherinterest cost for the quarter. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of` 45.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

    March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

    FY2014E 2,455 13.4 108 14.6 12.3 2.5 0.3 3.5 0.5FY2015E 2,734 13.0 110 14.9 11.3 2.4 0.3 3.6 0.5

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    DLF Consolidated (30/05/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)

    Net sales 2,051 2,617 (22) 1,310 57

    EBITDA 794 798 (0) 87 812

    EBITDA margin (%) 38.7 30.5 6.6

    Net profit 156 212 (26) 285 (45)

    GMR Infra Consolidated (30/05/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)

    Net sales 2,199 2,099 5 2,356 (7)

    EBITDA 652 269 142 584 12

    EBITDA margin (%) 29.7 12.8 24.8

    Net profit (108) (366) (70) (216) (50)

    Indian Oil Corp (30/05/2013)

    Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 126,800 127,700 (1) 115,300 10

    EBITDA 18,061 14,750 22 5,372 236

    EBITDA margin (%) 14.2 12 5

    Net profit 13,335 12,670 5 3,332 300

    Mahindra & Mahindra (30/05/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)

    Net sales 10,083 9,241 9 10,643 (5)

    EBITDA 1,175 865 36 1,211 (3)

    EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 9.4 11.4Net profit 778 874 (11) 836 (7)

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    Market Outlook May 30, 2013

    Power Finance Corporation (30/05/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)

    Net profit 1,121 818 37 1,117 0

    SAIL (30/05/2013)

    Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 12,208 13,397 (9) 10,495 16

    EBITDA 1,649 1,871 (12) 1,138 45

    EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 14.0 10.8

    Net profit 815 1,577 (48) 484 68

    Tata Power Consolidated (30/05/2013)Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)

    Net sales 9,281 7,170 29 8,992 3

    EBITDA 1,773 1,460 21 1,855 (4)

    EBITDA margin (%) 19.1 20.4 20.6Net profit 284 (629) (145) (329) (186)

    Economic and Political News Telecom user base rises to 89.80cr in March: TRAI Government to launch ` 1,000cr inflation bonds on June 4, 2013 GoM approves Coal Regulatory Authority Bill LPG subsidy directly in bank A/Cs from June 1, 2013 in 18 districts IMG meet on coal supply to end-use plants to be held on June 3, 2013

    Corporate News Apollo Tyres sells South African business to Sumitomo Rubber Bharti Airtel may face ` 650cr penalty Jubilant Life to split pharma business into two subsidiaries HPCL plans to revive ` 50,000cr petrochem plant TCS bags ` 1,100cr contract from Department of Posts TTML offer for sale: Floor price fixed at ` 7.60 per share Organic growth takes precedence over acquisitions at Tata Global Bev

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    May 30, 2013IOC, M&M, SAIL, DLF, Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Unitech, Suzlon Energy,GSPL, Aurobindo Pharma, Monnet Ispat, Ipca labs, Page Industries, Madras Cements, Sadbhav Engg., Simplex Infra,IVRCL Infra, Patel Engg.

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg DataLast Reported Estimated

    May 30, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 25 340.00 340.00

    2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value May F (21.90) (21.90)

    6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.50 2.50

    May 31, 2013 11:00AM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 1Q 4.50 4.80June 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 50.60 50.00

    June 3, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May F 49.00 49.00

    2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 49.80 --

    June 5, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Services Value May F 49.80 49.80

    2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q P (0.20) (0.20)

    June 6, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jun 6 0.50 0.50

    5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jun 6 0.50 0.50

    June 7, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 165.00 165.00

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % May 7.50 7.50

    June 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change May 14.70 --June 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change May 2.40 --

    11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change May 9.30 --

    June 10, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change May 10.96 --

    4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change May 1.68 --

    June 11, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr (1.40) --

    June 12, 2013 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change May (7.30) --

    11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Apr 2.50 --

    June 14, 2013 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % May F 1.20 --

    6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change May (0.70) --

    6:45PM US Industrial Production % May (0.53) --

    12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change May 4.89 --

    June 17, 2013 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 17 7.25 --

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 17 4.00 --

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 17 6.25 --

    June 18, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change May 2.40 --

    6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands May 853.00 --

    6:00PM US Building permits Thousands May 1,005.00 --

    6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change May (0.40) --

    June 19, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jun 19 0.25 --

    June 20, 2013 7:30PM US Existing home sales Million May 4.97 --

    June 25, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 76.20 --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands May 454.00 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    May 30, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1: Q uarterly G D P trends

    Source: CSO, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 2: IIP trends

    Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 3: M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 4: M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 5 0 ind icates expan sion

    Exhibit 5: Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

    Source: Bloomb erg, An gel Research

    Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Ang el Research

    5.7

    9.0

    7.5

    11.2

    8.57.6

    8.29.2

    7.56.5

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    3.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

    10.011.012.0

    1 Q F Y 1 0

    2 Q F Y 1 0

    3 Q F Y 1 0

    4 Q F Y 1 0

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    2 Q F Y 1 2

    3 Q F Y 1 2

    4 Q F Y 1 2

    1 Q F Y 1 3

    2 Q F Y 1 3

    3 Q F Y 1 3

    (%)

    (1.3)

    2.5

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.4

    0.5

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    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    A p r - 1 2

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    F e b

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    (%)

    7.6 7.6 7.58.0 8.1

    7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 6.86.0

    4.9

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    2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

    M a y - 1 2

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    N o v - 1 2

    D e c - 1

    2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    F e b

    - 1 2

    M a r - 1 2

    A p r - 1 2

    M a y - 1 2

    J u n - 1

    2

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o v - 1 2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    M a - 1

    2

    J u n - 1

    2

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o v - 1 2

    D e c - 1

    2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a - 1

    3

    A p r - 1 3

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    7.25

    6.25

    4.003.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    J u n - 1

    2

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o - 1

    2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    M a - 1

    3

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    12/19

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    13/19

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 184 - 28,370 10,232 11,762 23.5 24.5 10.3 12.2 17.9 15.1 3.0 2.7 17.2 18.6 2.3 1.9India Cements Neutral 70 - 2,155 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 7.9 6.4 0.6 0.6 7.7 9.1 0.8 0.7

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 105 143 1,237 2,313 2,728 19.8 20.7 16.1 22.1 6.6 4.8 0.8 0.7 13.2 15.8 1.1 0.9Madras Cements Neutral 245 - 5,827 4,293 4,855 27.4 28.6 21.8 28.2 11.3 8.7 2.0 1.7 19.6 21.3 1.8 1.5

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,968 - 17,306 6,540 7,452 27.4 26.6 319.7 369.9 15.5 13.4 3.8 3.1 27.5 25.4 2.0 1.6UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,972 - 54,073 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 18.6 16.5 3.1 2.7 17.7 17.3 2.5 2.2

    Construction Ashoka Buildcon Buy 207 255 1,089 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 18.0 22.2 11.5 9.3 1.0 0.9 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.9Consolidated Co Neutral 11 - 208 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 16.5 5.6 0.4 0.4 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3

    IRB Infra Buy 123 157 4,088 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 7.8 7.4 1.1 1.0 15.2 14.5 3.5 3.7ITNL Buy 178 230 3,454 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 6.0 5.5 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.2 2.6 2.6IVRCL Infra Buy 19 35 568 6,287 6,836 8.5 8.5 2.3 3.0 7.9 6.1 0.3 0.3 3.4 4.2 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 69 90 15,367 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 27.4 24.3 1.1 1.1 4.2 4.7 2.9 2.8Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,447 1,761 89,107 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 77.9 88.3 18.6 16.4 2.7 2.4 15.5 15.6 1.4 1.3

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 31 42 807 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 11.8 8.7 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.5Punj Lloyd Neutral 46 - 1,514 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 89.8 48.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 108 153 1,629 2,511 2,736 10.6 10.6 7.3 7.8 14.9 13.9 1.9 1.7 13.3 12.7 0.8 0.8Simplex Infra Buy 105 164 519 6,824 7,563 9.2 9.4 18.0 23.4 5.8 4.5 0.4 0.4 6.9 8.3 0.5 0.4

    Unity Infra Buy 31 45 230 2,455 2,734 13.4 13.0 14.6 14.9 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.2 12.3 11.3 0.5 0.5

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Buy 123 144 6,168 6,876 7,545 2.6 2.5 28.2 30.9 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.6 12.8 12.7 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 87 - 4,871 5,254 5,900 2.8 2.8 21.2 22.9 4.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 13.3 13.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,458 1,853 68,324 19,055 22,710 3.3 3.2 130.7 152.3 11.2 9.6 1.8 1.6 17.2 17.6 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 679 851 28,618 16,365 18,781 2.2 2.3 121.3 142.5 5.6 4.8 0.8 0.7 15.1 15.7 - -

    Bank of India Buy 296 350 17,645 14,482 16,383 2.3 2.3 58.1 68.1 5.1 4.4 0.8 0.7 14.4 15.0 - -Bank of Maharashtra A ccumulate 58 64 3,827 4,392 4,743 3.1 3.0 12.6 13.7 4.6 4.2 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.0 - -

    Canara Bank Accumulate 422 481 18,695 11,928 13,467 2.1 2.2 74.8 86.0 5.6 4.9 0.8 0.7 13.7 14.2 - -Central Bank Neutral 67 - 6,993 8,249 9,211 2.4 2.5 14.9 18.2 4.5 3.7 0.7 0.6 12.5 13.8 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 427 495 6,528 5,558 6,121 2.0 2.0 98.4 107.7 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.6 14.9 14.5 - -Dena Bank Accumulate 87 97 3,046 3,187 3,582 2.3 2.4 23.8 25.5 3.7 3.4 0.6 0.5 15.9 15.1 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 451 - 7,707 2,873 3,413 3.0 3.1 52.7 62.0 8.6 7.3 1.1 1.0 13.4 14.2 - -

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    May 30, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    14/19

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Neutral 909 - 140,724 8,573 10,142 3.6 3.6 37.0 43.6 24.6 20.8 5.1 4.5 30.0 30.3 - -HDFC Bank Neutral 715 - 170,288 27,682 33,916 4.6 4.6 35.3 42.7 20.3 16.8 4.0 3.4 21.3 21.8 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,216 1,503 140,275 25,705 30,330 3.1 3.2 83.9 96.3 14.5 12.6 1.9 1.8 15.2 15.7 - -IDBI Bank Accumulate 84 93 11,195 9,477 10,678 2.0 2.1 19.6 22.6 4.3 3.7 0.5 0.5 12.8 13.4 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 149 185 6,397 6,185 6,978 3.0 3.0 37.0 42.2 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 14.8 15.1 - -IOB Accumulate 61 66 5,669 8,142 8,956 2.5 2.5 16.5 20.7 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 11.8 13.4 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 1,240 - 6,013 3,074 3,140 3.5 3.2 224.7 201.5 5.5 6.2 1.1 0.9 20.6 16.1 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 270 298 13,623 2,113 2,525 2.3 2.3 25.4 29.2 10.6 9.2 1.9 1.6 18.4 18.3 - -Oriental Bank Accumulate 253 285 7,383 6,835 7,588 2.6 2.6 56.5 63.8 4.5 4.0 0.6 0.5 13.1 13.4 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 803 994 28,373 20,876 23,929 3.3 3.4 151.7 177.0 5.3 4.5 0.9 0.7 16.1 16.5 - -South Ind.Bank Neutral 25 - 3,351 1,839 2,091 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.5 6.0 5.6 1.0 0.9 18.2 17.0 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,105 2,637 144,006 67,243 76,612 3.1 3.0 242.4 284.8 8.7 7.4 1.3 1.2 16.3 16.8 - -Syndicate Bank Accumulate 129 142 7,792 7,238 8,249 2.7 2.6 27.1 30.4 4.8 4.3 0.7 0.6 16.1 15.9 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 77 - 5,765 6,250 6,738 2.6 2.5 12.1 14.7 6.4 5.2 1.0 0.8 11.8 13.0 - -Union Bank Accumulate 226 260 1 3,508 11,229 12,794 2.6 2.6 40.7 48.2 5.6 4.7 0.8 0.7 14.6 15.4 - -United Bank Buy 54 65 2,005 3,443 3,998 2.4 2.6 15.1 20.4 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.4 12.1 14.8 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 52 - 2,557 2,730 3,059 1.9 2.0 10.2 11.3 5.1 4.6 0.6 0.5 11.8 12.0 - -Yes Bank Neutral 503 - 18,067 4,390 5,411 2.8 2.8 41.6 47.9 12.1 10.5 2.6 2.1 23.2 22.1 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,813 - 46,161 12,332 14,524 16.5 16.3 141.6 162.7 34.0 29.6 10.8 8.5 35.4 32.2 3.6 3.0Britannia Neutral 684 - 8,182 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 23.2 27.9 29.6 24.5 10.2 8.0 38.3 36.4 1.2 1.0

    Colgate Neutral 1,483 - 20,172 3,588 4,130 21.1 21.6 44.7 51.9 33.2 28.6 29.4 22.0 98.3 88.0 5.4 4.6

    Dabur India Neutral 157 - 27,364 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 29.2 25.0 11.4 8.9 41.5 40.1 3.7 3.2GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,163 - 21,712 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 42.3 34.7 13.1 10.6 34.1 33.7 5.4 4.5Godrej Consumer Neutral 831 - 28,296 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 33.1 28.0 7.1 5.9 24.9 24.2 3.7 3.2

    HUL Neutral 594 - 128,472 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 34.8 32.3 33.4 24.2 113.4 87.0 4.2 3.7ITC Neutral 342 - 270,440 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 30.4 25.7 10.0 8.1 36.1 34.9 7.5 6.4

    Marico Neutral 229 - 14,773 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 31.6 26.4 6.2 5.1 21.4 21.0 2.8 2.4Nestle* Neutral 5,254 - 50,659 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 41.2 34.1 20.6 14.9 57.7 50.7 5.4 4.5Tata Global Neutral 143 - 8,843 7,998 8,798 9.7 9.8 7.9 8.7 18.1 16.4 2.2 2.1 9.5 9.8 1.0 0.9

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    May 30, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    15/19

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Buy 746 863 51,976 28,633 32,216 21.5 20.7 57.3 61.7 13.0 12.1 3.1 2.6 24.0 21.5 1.6 1.4Hexaware* Accumulate 83 96 2,464 2,091 2,289 19.0 18.8 10.6 11.3 7.8 7.3 1.7 1.5 22.8 21.7 1.0 0.9

    Infosys Neutral 2,351 - 134,974 43,338 47,244 27.5 27.7 169.4 182.6 13.9 12.9 2.9 2.5 20.8 19.3 2.5 2.2Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 168 185 1,876 1,956 2,174 17.9 17.7 20.4 21.9 8.2 7.7 1.2 1.1 14.7 13.7 0.6 0.4

    KPIT Cummins Buy 111 135 2,143 2,513 2,819 16.1 15.5 12.6 14.0 8.8 7.9 1.5 1.3 17.9 16.6 0.8 0.6Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 113 126 13,357 8,278 9,062 20.3 20.1 10.5 11.4 10.8 10.0 2.5 2.0 23.1 20.0 1.2 1.0

    Mindtree Buy 804 920 3,341 2,599 2,871 19.4 19.2 85.2 92.3 9.4 8.7 2.0 1.6 21.4 18.9 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Reduce 447 395 9,394 6,096 6,646 17.6 17.4 38.1 41.6 11.7 10.8 1.7 1.5 14.2 13.7 1.0 0.8NIIT Buy 22 30 363 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 5.1 4.1 0.5 0.5 10.3 12.0 0.1 -

    Persistent Buy 519 593 2,074 1,445 1,617 25.2 25.0 55.3 59.3 9.4 8.8 1.7 1.5 18.2 16.5 1.0 0.8TCS Neutral 1,497 - 292,996 71,833 81,893 28.4 28.0 78.5 88.0 19.1 17.0 5.8 4.8 30.2 27.9 3.9 3.4

    Tech Mahindra Buy 983 1,170 12,627 7,779 8,398 19.7 19.3 107.4 117.8 9.2 8.4 1.9 1.6 21.2 19.0 1.6 1.4 Wipro Accumulate 340 385 83,710 40,173 43,697 20.4 20.6 26.2 28.5 13.0 11.9 2.6 2.2 19.7 18.4 1.6 1.3

    Media

    D B Corp Accumulate 259 290 4,741 1,750 1,925 25.1 26.6 14.2 16.8 18.2 15.4 3.9 3.3 23.4 23.4 2.7 2.4HT Media Buy 100 117 2,355 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.1 12.1 11.0 1.3 1.2 11.5 11.4 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 86 121 2,840 1,698 1,908 23.9 24.5 7.4 8.4 11.6 10.2 2.9 2.6 26.7 26.8 1.8 1.6PVR Neutral 340 - 1,347 1,343 1,521 18.8 18.9 18.3 22.9 18.6 14.9 1.8 1.9 10.6 12.3 1.0 0.9

    Sun TV Network Neutral 429 - 16,887 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 21.4 18.4 5.3 4.6 26.4 27.3 6.7 5.9

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 464 - 10,505 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 7.0 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

    Coal India Accumulate 327 345 206,640 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 11.5 10.6 3.2 2.7 37.6 36.2 2.0 1.8

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 16 24 529 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 12.8 6.2 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.6 0.2GMDC Buy 143 213 4,559 1,944 2,317 49.9 51.7 20.8 25.6 6.9 5.6 1.5 1.3 24.3 24.6 1.9 1.4

    Hind. Zinc Buy 119 145 50,070 12,358 13,659 51.4 51.6 16.0 17.6 7.4 6.7 1.3 1.2 19.4 18.4 1.9 1.3Hindalco Neutral 110 - 21,051 88,987 94,163 9.2 9.7 13.8 15.9 8.0 6.9 0.6 0.5 7.6 8.1 0.6 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 707 - 15,773 39,973 40,926 17.2 17.0 71.9 82.8 9.8 8.5 0.9 0.8 9.0 9.6 0.8 0.7MOIL Buy 203 248 3,402 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.6 7.0 1.1 1.0 15.4 14.7 1.0 0.7

    Monnet Ispat Buy 164 291 1,046 2,883 3,181 21.7 23.6 40.3 57.7 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.3 10.1 13.0 1.2 1.0Nalco Neutral 35 - 9,020 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 13.7 13.4 0.7 0.7 5.5 5.5 0.6 0.6

    NMDC Buy 117 179 46,229 10,329 12,540 73.8 75.0 16.6 19.0 7.0 6.1 1.3 1.2 20.6 20.2 2.3 1.8

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    May 30, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    16/19

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    SAIL Neutral 60 - 24,657 53,685 64,183 9.3 12.2 5.5 8.3 10.9 7.2 0.6 0.5 5.4 7.7 0.8 0.8Sesa Goa Neutral 159 - 13,784 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 5.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 14.3 12.5 4.5 3.8

    Sterlite Inds Accumulate 92 100 31,052 44,462 45,568 23.2 24.7 18.1 20.2 5.1 4.6 0.6 0.5 11.3 11.4 0.7 0.6Tata Steel Buy 314 378 30,501 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 10.2 6.6 0.9 0.8 9.6 13.4 0.6 0.6

    Sarda Buy 107 153 383 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.4 2.9 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5Prakash Industries Buy 36 45 484 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.7 3.5 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4Godawari Power andIspat Buy 85 118 278 2,425 2,552 13.7 14.8 33.5 45.3 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.2 11.2 13.1 0.5 0.4Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 288 345 55,026 16,482 16,228 69.4 53.3 53.3 49.6 5.4 5.8 0.8 0.8 16.5 13.6 2.0 1.7

    GAIL Neutral 322 - 40,801 55,815 63,013 15.3 15.2 35.9 41.5 9.0 7.8 1.4 1.2 17.0 17.1 0.6 0.4ONGC Accumulate 334 354 285,753 157,962 175,367 35.1 36.2 34.3 39.3 9.7 8.5 1.7 1.5 18.2 18.6 1.6 1.4

    Reliance Industries Neutral 847 - 273,605 380,031 407,721 9.9 69.3 69.3 78.0 12.2 10.9 1.2 1.1 11.5 11.7 0.7 0.6Gujarat Gas* Neutral 239 - 3,059 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 10.1 9.3 2.8 2.4 29.6 28.2 0.7 0.6Indraprastha Gas Neutral 284 - 3,970 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.6 9.3 2.2 1.9 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

    Petronet LNG Buy 143 167 10,699 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 9.5 8.5 2.0 1.7 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3Gujarat State PetronetLtd. Neutral 58 - 3,286 1,079 983 91.8 91.9 8.8 7.8 6.7 7.5 1.1 1.0 17.8 14.1 2.9 3.1

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Neutral 138 - 2,602 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 12.9 9.9 4.1 3.0 35.0 34.7 1.5 1.3

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 177 264 5,141 6,279 7,033 16.0 16.0 15.2 19.2 11.6 9.2 1.5 1.3 19.2 18.0 1.3 1.2 Aventis* Neutral 2,643 - 6,087 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 28.6 26.7 4.0 4.0 15.7 14.8 3.2 2.6Cadila Healthcare Buy 787 962 16,119 7,386 8,863 18.0 18.0 39.5 48.1 19.9 16.4 4.5 3.7 24.8 24.7 2.5 2.0

    Cipla Buy 402 463 32,241 9,130 10,543 24.8 23.0 21.6 23.2 18.6 17.3 3.0 2.6 17.6 16.2 3.2 2.7Dr Reddy's Buy 2,117 2,535 35,946 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 18.9 16.7 4.0 3.3 23.5 21.8 2.8 2.4

    Dishman Pharma Buy 74 206 597 1,536 1,739 20.2 20.9 15.4 20.6 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.5 11.6 13.7 1.0 0.8GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,270 - 19,229 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 29.6 27.3 8.9 8.1 31.1 31.0 5.9 5.2

    Indoco Remedies Buy 62 89 575 774 938 15.2 15.2 7.2 8.9 8.7 7.0 1.2 1.0 14.5 15.8 1.0 0.8Ipca labs Buy 591 676 7,458 3,474 4,168 21.0 21.0 37.3 45.1 15.9 13.1 3.7 3.0 26.4 25.3 2.2 1.8

    Lupin Buy 763 877 34,139 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 21.9 18.3 5.1 4.1 26.2 24.8 2.9 2.4Ranbaxy* Neutral 385 - 16,268 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 22.0 17.1 3.5 3.0 17.0 19.1 1.4 1.3Sun Pharma Neutral 1,066 - 110,233 12,563 14,698 42.6 42.6 29.8 35.5 35.8 30.0 6.4 5.4 19.2 19.3 7.6 6.3

    Power

    GIPCL Neutral 75 - 1,139 1,535 1,570 31.9 31.6 13.1 14.1 5.8 5.3 0.7 0.6 12.4 12.2 1.0 0.8

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    May 30, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    17/19

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Power

    NTPC Accumulate 154 163 127,186 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 11.5 10.6 1.4 1.3 12.8 12.7 2.4 2.2

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 211 288 37,472 9,699 12,010 37.0 36.9 6.0 8.4 35.3 25.1 1.3 1.3 3.8 5.1 5.3 4.4

    MLIFE Buy 410 476 1,675 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 10.6 9.4 1.2 1.1 11.2 11.4 2.5 2.2

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Accumulate 314 338 119,356 86,592 95,860 31.4 31.8 10.9 14.5 28.8 21.6 2.2 2.0 7.7 9.3 2.0 1.7

    Idea Cellular Neutral 135 - 44,723 25,122 27,663 27.0 27.2 4.0 4.8 34.0 28.3 2.8 2.6 8.3 9.1 2.2 2.0Rcom Neutral 110 - 22,756 22,801 24,628 31.0 31.3 3.6 5.3 31.0 20.9 0.7 0.7 2.2 3.1 2.6 2.3

    Others

    Abbott India* Buy 1,420 1,659 3,018 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.0 17.1 4.0 3.4 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1Bajaj Electricals Buy 164 237 1,637 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.0 8.3 2.0 1.7 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 487 562 616 630 795 14.4 13.6 42.8 51.1 11.4 9.5 2.7 2.2 26.6 25.2 0.9 0.8Cravatex Buy 370 566 96 308 351 7.0 7.0 39.6 47.2 9.3 7.8 2.0 1.6 21.8 21.0 0.4 0.3

    Finolex Cables Buy 53 68 811 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.3 4.7 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2Force Motors Buy 350 437 457 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 12.5 8.0 0.4 0.4 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Buy 266 345 612 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 8.2 7.2 1.5 1.3 19.5 19.3 0.2 0.2Hitachi Buy 145 177 393 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 10.5 8.2 1.5 1.3 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.4

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,417 - 2,137 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 21.5 18.3 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9IFB Agro Buy 170 198 153 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 5.8 4.3 0.8 0.7 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3ITD Cementation Buy 180 234 207 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 9.5 6.7 0.5 0.5 4.9 6.3 0.6 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 186 199 2,991 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 33.6 20.5 3.9 3.4 12.1 17.7 2.8 2.2MRF Reduce 15,162 14,416 6,430 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 8.5 8.4 1.8 1.5 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

    Page Industries Reduce 3,880 3,637 4,328 1,047 1,281 19.6 19.8 127.3 158.1 30.5 24.5 14.6 10.6 54.9 50.0 4.3 3.5Relaxo Footwears Buy 649 791 779 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 14.1 10.7 3.0 2.4 23.0 24.6 0.8 0.7

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 261 331 244 1,157 1,320 11.9 11.8 72.2 82.8 3.6 3.2 0.7 0.6 19.7 19.0 0.4 0.4Styrolution ABS India* Buy 435 617 765 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 11.4 9.9 1.6 1.4 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 62 108 390 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.9 6.8 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.4Tata Sponge Iron Buy 290 371 447 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.5 4.2 0.6 0.6 14.5 13.8 0.2 -TTK Healthcare Buy 571 686 444 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 23.5 17.2 3.9 3.3 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.7

    Tree House Accumulate 275 313 990 155 194 53.6 52.8 12.4 15.6 22.3 17.6 2.6 2.3 11.4 12.8 6.4 4.9TVS Srichakra Buy 189 252 145 1,591 1,739 6.1 6.6 24.5 41.9 7.7 4.5 0.8 0.7 10.9 17.2 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,460 - 32,172 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 58.4 36.3 4.1 3.7 9.1 10.7 2.9 2.5

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    May 30, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    Vesuvius India* Buy 369 439 748 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.3 10.1 1.9 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.1 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 29, 2013

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    May 30, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 30-05-2013

    19/19