NIFTY 10128 IN FOCUS Support 10060 10000 Resistance 10200 10270 Stock in Focus KEC INTERNATIONAL Positional Pick IGL Intraday Pick HINDUNILVR Intraday Pick ACC Institutional Equity Research MARKET LENS December 05, 2017 1 Exchange Rs Crore BSE Equity 369.7 BSE Derivatives 0.44 NSE Equity 24,736.8 NSE Derivatives 3,85,865.9 Indices Absolute Change Percentage Change Domestic Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD BSE Sensex 32,869.7 36.8 0.1% -2.4% 23.4% CNX Nifty 10,127.8 6.0 0.1% -3.1% 23.7% S&P CNX 500 9,059.4 (1.0) 0.0% -2.2% 29.7% SENSEX 50 10,573.7 11.0 0.1% -2.7% 25.5% International Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD DJIA 24,290.1 58.5 0.2% 3.2% 22.9% NASDAQ 6,775.4 (72.2) -1.1% 0.2% 25.9% NIKKEI 22,597.0 (110.1) -0.5% 0.3% 18.2% HANGSENG 29,084.2 (54.1) -0.2% 1.7% 32.2% MSCI Emerging Mkts 1,121.9 6.0 0.5% -0.4% 30.1% Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Dr. Reddy’s Lab (ADR) 34.9 0.1 0.4% -5.0% -22.9% Tata Motors (ADR) 31.1 0.4 1.2% -8.0% -9.5% Infosys (ADR) 15.5 0.4 2.7% 5.7% 4.2% ICICI Bank (ADR) 9.4 (0.0) -0.3% -2.2% 37.3% HDFC Bank (ADR) 94.2 (1.8) -1.9% 0.0% 55.3% Axis Bank (GDR) 41.3 (0.1) -0.1% -0.2% 25.9% Reliance Ind (GDR) 28.0 0.0 0.0% -3.3% 77.2% ADRs / GDRs Key Commodities Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Brent Crude ($/bl) 62.6 0.1 0.2% 0.8% 10.1% Silver ($/Oz) 16.4 0.0 0.2% -2.9% 2.7% Gold ($/Oz) 1,276.0 (0.2) 0.0% -0.5% 11.2% Copper LME ($/MT) 6,800.8 (7.8) -0.1% -0.9% 23.1% Aluminium LME ($/MT) 2,052.0 (6.5) -0.3% -5.3% 20.4% Baltic Dry 1,626.0 48.0 3.0% 10.2% 69.2% COMMODITY MARKET Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD USD/INR 64.4 64.5 -0.1% -0.5% -5.2% EUR/INR 76.3 76.3 0.0% 1.8% 6.5% CURRENCY RATES Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD T-Bill - 91 D 6.1 6.1 0.0% 0.5% -1.2% 10 Year G-sec Yield 7.1 7.1 0.3% 3.3% 8.7% RATES Category BUY SELL NET Prev FII 3,988.6 4,322.2 (333.6) 306.1 DII 3,207.0 2,430.9 776.2 176.2 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (RS. CR) EXCHANGE TURNOVER IGL (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 333) BUY Fresh long position can be initiated in the range of Rs329-324 for the target of Rs365 with a strict stop loss of Rs305. Positional Pick STOCK IN FOCUS EQUITY INDICES Intraday Picks f KEC International (KEC) has delivered a strong performance in 2QFY18. Despite higher commodity prices, KEC’s overall EBITDA margin expanded by 139bps YoY to 10.1% in 2QFY18 owing to absence of low-margin legacy orders in Water, Railways and Power Systems segments and execution of recently bagged better-margin orders by SAE Towers. Its net profit rising by 42% YoY to Rs894mn led by higher margin and lower interest cost. f With fresh orders worth Rs57.5bn, KEC’s order book stood at Rs140bn as of FY18 YTD (+14% YoY). We expect the strong order intake traction to continue, going forward led by higher T&D spending by SEBs, improved Railways ordering and recovery in overseas markets i.e. Saudi, SAARC & Africa. f We expect KEC’s earnings to witness 25.2% CAGR over FY16- 19E on strong order book, improving margin profile and healthy outlook in T&D and other emerging business segments. f We continue to remain positive on the fundamentals of KEC with a Target Price of Rs372. HINDUNILVR (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 1269) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at around Rs1260- 1255 for the target of Rs1285-1300 with a strict stop loss of Rs1240. ACC (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 1694) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at around Rs1685- 1675 for the target of Rs1720-1740 with a strict stop loss of Rs1660.
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IGL (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 333) BUYFresh long position can be initiated in the range of Rs329-324 for the target of Rs365 with a strict stop loss of Rs305.
Positional Pick
STOCK IN FOCUS
EQUITY INDICES
Intraday Picks
f KEC International (KEC) has delivered a strong performance in 2QFY18. Despite higher commodity prices, KEC’s overall EBITDA margin expanded by 139bps YoY to 10.1% in 2QFY18 owing to absence of low-margin legacy orders in Water, Railways and Power Systems segments and execution of recently bagged better-margin orders by SAE Towers. Its net profit rising by 42% YoY to Rs894mn led by higher margin and lower interest cost.
f With fresh orders worth Rs57.5bn, KEC’s order book stood at Rs140bn as of FY18 YTD (+14% YoY). We expect the strong order intake traction to continue, going forward led by higher T&D spending by SEBs, improved Railways ordering and recovery in overseas markets i.e. Saudi, SAARC & Africa.
f We expect KEC’s earnings to witness 25.2% CAGR over FY16-19E on strong order book, improving margin profile and healthy outlook in T&D and other emerging business segments.
f We continue to remain positive on the fundamentals of KEC with a Target Price of Rs372.
HINDUNILVR (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 1269) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at around Rs1260-1255 for the target of Rs1285-1300 with a strict stop loss of Rs1240.
ACC (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 1694) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at around Rs1685-1675 for the target of Rs1720-1740 with a strict stop loss of Rs1660.
NIFTY 10128 IN FOCUS
Support 10060
10000
Resistance 10200
10270
Stock in Focus KEC INTERNATIONAL
Positional Pick IGL
Intraday Pick HINDUNILVR
Intraday Pick ACC
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
December 05, 2017
2
MARKET SYNOPSIS
f Yesterday, NSE-NIFTY visited prior swing low post a firm opening on back of sharp decline in the initial trade, where index slipped from 10,179 to 10,096 levels. Later, NIFTY oscillated from 10,160 to 10,110 range for rest of the day and finally, closed the session at 10,128 mark, with the gain of 6 points.
f NSE Cash segment reported turnover of Rs24,737 crore as compared to Rs28,450 crore earlier.
f Overall market breadth remained negative, where 562 stocks advanced against 946 declined stocks.
f Mixed trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day, where IT emerged as a top gainer with the increase of 1.2%. However, on the other hand none of the sectoral indices had reported loss of more than 1%.
NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK
f NSE-NIFTY begun week on a flat note, where index managed to breach prior daily downtrend with the minor gain. Though oversold technical indicators are signaling near-term turnaround in the index, fall in cash segment volume (to one-month low) and negative market breadth are still not in confirming the same. We believe that index will remain sideways ahead of RBI’s policy announcement, where in case of decline index will find support around its psychological level-10,000. However on the higher side, 10,300 level will restrict the rise, as any stable move above that level will bring positivity back in trade.
f As for the day, support is placed at around 10,060 and then at 10,000 levels, while resistance is observed at 10,200 and then at 10,270 levels.
Technical Research
NIFTY 10128 IN FOCUS
Support 10060
10000
Resistance 10200
10270
Stock in Focus KEC INTERNATIONAL
Positional Pick IGL
Intraday Pick HINDUNILVR
Intraday Pick ACC
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
December 05, 2017
3
f The stock witnesses sharp decline post a corporate action (stock split), where its medium-term moving average 50-day EMA worked as key reversal point and helped it to recover prior damages. Later, the stock moved further higher and record new life-time-high.
f Rise in the key technical indicators-RSI and MACD post their bullish cross-over is signaling strength in the stock.
f However, oversold Stochastic is indicating that the stock will witness minor decline before it resumes the uptrend.
f Hence, fresh long position can be initiated only in the range of Rs329-324 for the target of Rs365 and with a stop loss of Rs305.
f On the higher side, the stock will face major hurdle around Rs365, which is coinciding with prior high connecting rising trend line.
f In case of any decline, its medium-term moving average will continue to work as key reversal point for the stock.
f Nifty opened higher on back of global cues but failed to build momentum and closed flat for the day. Nifty closed up by 6 points at 10,128 levels. Among the nifty stocks 28 stocks advanced and 20 declined during the day.
f Sectorally, it was a mixed bag with IT and PSU Banks to gain by 1.3% and 0.4% respectively while Realty, Pharma and Auto declined by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.
f Broader market indices remained flat with NIFTY 100,200 and 500 to close up by 0.1% average while midcap indices indices gained by 0.3% and small cap declined by 0.7% respectively.
f Nifty December futures ends with 31 point premium at 10,159 mark, while on other hand, Bank Nifty December futures ended with the premium of 111 points at 25,186 mark.
f Nifty has ended flat after a sharp fall in the last two days, the credit policy will provide some cues from the current range, on the downside there is strong support at 10,050 which is the 100 day average. Nifty 10,000 PE has the highest OI of 80 lakhs shares while on the higher side 10,500 CE has 61 lakhs shares.
Sectoral Activity: Amongst sectoral index, IT and Consumer remained in focus with positive momentum.
Stock Activity: Mindtree and United Spirits observed build up in long position.
Derivatives Snapshot
TOP 5 PRICE GAINERS
Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance
The Motor & General Finance Limited 14-Dec-17 Results
Vishnu Chemicals Limited 14-Dec-17 Results/Others
W S Industries (I) Limited 14-Dec-17 Results
TCI Developers Limited 8-Feb-18 Results
Transport Corporation of India Limited 8-Feb-18 Results
NIFTY 10128 IN FOCUS
Support 10060
10000
Resistance 10200
10270
Stock in Focus KEC INTERNATIONAL
Positional Pick IGL
Intraday Pick HINDUNILVR
Intraday Pick ACC
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
December 05, 2017
12
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