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MaritimeSecurityThreats&SupplyChainRisk

PeterCook

Agenda

• Historicalperspectiveofmaritimesecurityandhowthingshavechanged.• Problemsdefiningcontemporarydefinitionofmaritimesecurityandmulti-facetedaspectsandthreatsofthegenre.• Whatdoesitmeantome?

HistoryofSecurityatSea

“Controloftheseabymaritimecommerceandnavalsupremacymeanspredominantinfluenceintheworld.”

ATMahan

Mostshipsflewtheflagoftheirnationalregistries

PostWWIIChanges

Openregistrieswereinitiallyusedtoavoidincreasinglabourcostsandalcoholprohibition

Containerisationsignificantlyspeededupcargohandling,

reducingcostsRevolutionisedshipbuildingtechnology

“Theworld’s[commercial]fleethasmorethandoubledinsizesince2001,”

UnitedNationsConferenceonTrade&DevelopmentReviewofMaritimeTransport2013

Growthincommercialshipping!

CommercialShippingDrivers:

PerfectMarket

Shippingcompanies,operators,managers&charterers(internationalshippingassociations)

FlagStates(commercialentities)

MarineInsurance

Todayover80%oftheglobalcommercialfleetisflaggedwithOpenRegistries

OpenRegistriesDON’Thaveoceangoingnavies.

InternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)

EuropeanNaviesdecline1995-2013• FrenchNavy47%reduction

• GermanNavy31%reduction

• ItalianNavy40%reduction

• SpanishNavy5%reduction

• UKNavy44%reduction

Source:IISSMilitaryBalance2013

WhatisMaritimeSecurity?

SevenDimensionsofMaritimeSecurity:• StateonState• TradeProtection• ResourceManagement• Smuggling• Terrorism• Disasters(natural&man-made)• Oceanography

SevenDimensionsofMaritimeSecurity:• StateonState• TradeProtection• ResourceManagement• Smuggling• Terrorism• Disasters(natural&man-made)• Oceanography

StateonState

USSLassen Oct15

“TheSouthChinaSeaistheMitteleuropa ofthetwenty-firstcentury.”Kaplan

StateonState

HSV2-Swift(UAEflagged)attackedwithYemenimissiles(1Oct16)inBeM.

SaudiArabianFrigateattackedInBeM by3smallvessels,onevessel(unmanned)explodedonimpact,killing2Saudisailors(30Jan17)

CaptJeffDaviesUSNofthePentagon,said,“WeseenevidencethatHouthisarelayingminesinwatersoutsideatLeastoneoftheir[Yemen]ports.Weofficiallyhaveagreatconcernforthefreedomofnavigationthere.”3Feb17

ImpactoftheclosingoftheBabelMandeb/SuezCanal.

From To Via Distance @15ktsindays Remarks

Fujairah(StraitsofHormuz)

Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)

SuezCanal 5172nm 14.4 Mostdirect,quickestandshortestroute.

Fujairah(StraitsofHormuz)

Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)

CapeofGoodHope

11213nm 31.2 Takes16.8dayslongerforaone-waytripand33.6dayslongerforaroundtripa116%increase

Singapore Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)

SuezCanal 6927 19.2 Mostdirect,quickestandshortestroute.

Singapore Gibraltar(mouthofMediterranean)

CapeofGoodHope

10705 29.7 Takes10.5dayslongerforaone-waytripand21dayslongerforaroundtripa54%increase

TradeProtection

IMBPiracyMap21Apr10IMBPiracyMap2Apr12

IMBPiracyMap2Nov14IMBPiracyMapfor2015

IMBPiracyMapfor2016IMBPiracyMapas@6Dec17

TakenfromReCAAP ReportJan-Jun17

AbuSayyafGroup• BasilanGroup• Maute Group

ResourceManagement(Oil&Gas)

ResourceManagement(UnderseaMining)

ResourceManagement(IUUFishing)

Smuggling

90%ofeverythingmovesbysea!

The SantaMaria,acruiseliner takenateamof24IberianterroristsoffthecoastofVenezuelaon23January1961inthesocalledOperationDULCINEAagainstthePortuguesegovernment.

Terrorism

Achille Lauro

TheAchille Lauro,acruiselinertakenoverby4PalestineLiberationFront(PLF)terroristsintheMediterraneanwhensurprisedbyacrewmember.OnewheelchairboundUSpassengerwasmurdered.TerroristsdisembarkedatPortSaid.

“WhileWesterndefenceexpenditureandinvestmentinsophisticatedweaponrygrew,itwasaspeedboatpackedwithimprovisedexplosivesthatalmostsunktheUSSCOLEin2000.”

ProfessorRichardHolmes

USSCOLEAden2000

MVLimburg

InOctober2002TheMVLimburg,anoiltankercarryingalmost400Kbarrelscrude,offthecoastofYemen,wasattackedbyanAlQaedaterroristinasmallboatwithaWaterborneImprovisedExplosiveDevice(WBIED)detonatedonthestarboardside,almost90Kbarrelsofcrudeleakedintothesea.

Superferry 14

InFebruary2004a10KGTferrydepartedManilawith899passengers&crewonboard.ATVsetcontaining3.6kgofexplosivesblewuponehourafterdeparting.Theexplosioncausedafirethatspreadthroughoutthevessel.Deadandmissing(presumeddrowned)180.

Mumbai

InNovember2008,10membersofaPakistaniAlQaedaterroristscarriedoutaverywellplannedandcoordinated“amphibiousraid”on12targetsintheportcityofMumbailasting4days,killingmorethan160peopleandinjuringover300,havingexploitedtheweaknessoftheseasideportsecuritymeasures.

MStar

InNovember2010theMStar,anoiltankerunderwayat10-12kts,transitingtheStraitsofHormuzatnightwasattackedwithaWBIED.Evidenceandresultsoftheinvestigationhavenotbeenreleased.

Cosco AsiaSuezCanal

On31st August2013terroristsattackedaContainershipcarrying10KTEUasittransitedtheSuezCanal.Clearlyawellplannedandcoordinatedattackagainstoneofthekeyglobalchokepoints

“AchillesHeelofWesternEconomies”statingthat“ifasinglesupertankerweretobeattackedinoneofthechokepointsorhijackedandscuttledinoneofthenarrowsealanestheconsequenceswouldbephenomenal”

November2014ISISconductanattackagainstanEgyptiannavalvesselintheMediterraneanusingastand-offmissilekilling8sailors.

EgyptianNavalVesselsattacked

TerroristsattackedtheBardo MuseumintheportofLaGoulette,Tunisiaaspassengersfromtwocruiseshipsweregettingoffbusestovisitthesite.Thetouristsranintothemuseumseekingshelter,pursuedbythegunmen,a3hoursiegeensued.

TunisMarch2015

Karachi,PakistanSeptember2015

On6th September10AlQaedamilitantsandsomemembersofthePakistannavyattemptedtocapturethefrigatePNSZULFIQAR,toallegedlyattackUSnavalvesselspatrollingintheIndianOcean.

ArticleinFTJanuary2016

GaliciaSpirit,aLNGcarrier,attackedbymaninsmallboatwithWBIED25Oct16.

Disasters,natural/man-made

Oceanography

Globalsupplychainandvulnerabilities• Thegrowingglobalpopulationandincreaseinmiddleclasswillresultinagrowthofthedemand;• CoalandIronOretradewillincreaseoverthenext12yearsto2030,linkedtotheurbanisationofChinaandIndiaandtherequirementforsteel;“ConsequentlytheBulkFleetisexpectedtogrowwithCapesizevessels2.5-3timescomparedtoHandyandPanamax(1.5-1.8)”.• “63%increaseinoilsupplyby20130”• ThelargestincreaseinLNGimportwillcomefromenergy-hungryIndiaandChina”• “Shipslargerthan7,600TEUtogrow6-6.5times”

InformationtakenfromGlobalMarineTrends2030byLloyd’sRegister,Qinetiq andUniversityofStrathclyde;

Plaguesoftheseas:

• Piracyisatropicaldiseasethatisimpossibletoeradicate.• Asthevolumeoftrademovingbyseaincreasesthequantitiesofcontrabandmovingbyseawillinevitablyincreaseaswell.• Aspressureonnaturalresources(water,food,fishetc)growindifferentpartsoftheworld,alongwithotherenvironmentalpressures(SSTandSeaLevelsrising)themassmovementofpeoplewillreachunprecedentedlevels.

Summary

• Theonlyconstantinlifeischange!• Theproblemsofdefiningthecontemporarydefinitionofmaritimesecurityisnewcomplexandchallenging.• Whatdoesitmeantome?• Increasedemand• Increasedthreat• Greaterunpredictability!• Higherrisk,Higherreturn!- Maybe

PeterCookPCAMaritime

[email protected]

Questions