Maritime Security and Geopolitical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific Region

Rome 27 February 2017

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Rear Admiral (ret.) Michele COSENTINO, Italian Navy

International Affairs Institute

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Chinese Geopolitic: The past ...

... and the present

Maritime ‘dimension’ and security agreements

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

The maritime strategy of the People’s Republic of China

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

The “nine-dash line” concept

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

The South China Sea - Claims in the Exclusive Economic Zones

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Maritime shipping in the South China Sea - Crude oil flows

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

… and after (January 2015)

Before (November 2014) …

Fiery Cross Reef

The “island colonisation”

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Maritime disputes in and air claims over the East China Sea

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

… and “high-level mil-mil engagements”

Marit ime Security and Geopolit ical Dynamics in the Asia-Pacif ic Region

Political dialogue …

Conclusions

• Sharing of international laws (UNCLOS)

• Claims to be solved within internationally-recognised legal fora (e.g. International Tribunal of Hamburg)

• Persistent and continuous surveillance in riskier areas (e.g. Korean Peninsula and adjacent waters, East China Sea, and South China Sea)

• Military improvements in pro-Western Nations = insurance policy against potential military engagements

• Involvement of EU as a key world player

• People’s Republic of China - Inescapable social, economic and military consolidation

• The most dangerous threat

• Enhancement of cooperation between Bejing and Moscow