Bridging green technology and profit sustainability – regula6ons – new ships – new fuels – innova6ons – investments Presented By: Maria Bertzeletou, Senior Shipping Analyst GOLDEN DESTINY, since 1994 Piraeus – Istanbul 21 Years Interna6onal Presence Lloyds List Award Shipbroker of the Year “2009” – Quality of Services cer6fied by ISO BV. 9001:2008 SALE & PURCHASE – MARINE INSURANCE – SHIP VALUATIONS – MARKET RESEARCH 1 5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Bridging green technology and profit sustainability – regula6ons – new ships – new fuels – innova6ons – investments
Presented By: Maria Bertzeletou, Senior Shipping Analyst
GOLDEN DESTINY, since 1994 Piraeus – Istanbul 21 Years Interna6onal Presence
Lloyds List Award Shipbroker of the Year “2009” – Quality of Services cer6fied by ISO BV.9001:2008
SALE & PURCHASE – MARINE INSURANCE – SHIP VALUATIONS – MARKET RESEARCH 1
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
Subjects under review:
Sec6on 1: • Historical Development of World Seaborne Trade • Correla6on of Seaborne Trade – World Output – World
Trade • Historical Development of World Fleet – Seaborne Trade • Historical growth of Seaborne Trade per major commodi6es: • (Dry -‐ Wet -‐ Liquid Gas -‐Container)
2
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐Flat Trend % Growth rates
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
3
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
5,416 6,858
8,260 10,846
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Historical Development -‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons
3% 5%
6%
4%
-‐4%
9%
4% 4% 3%
-‐6%
-‐4%
-‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(%Annual Percentage)-‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons
Fleet % Growth Seborne Trade % Growth World Fleet has doubled since 2003 From 2015, the supply demand gap narrows to 1% Annual Fleet growth nears to levels of 2004-‐2005, but world fleet is excessive, while seaborne trade shows weak recovery
5,416 6,858
8,260 10,846
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Historical Development -‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons
Wet Trade in close correla6on with crude oil trade
2003: >2,000 mil tons 2011: >3,000 mil tons
Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐Liquid Trade mil Tons From 2011: A new era of growth with flat momentum from 2015
due to slower growth in LNG
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
8
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
• Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 37% -‐ At similar growth Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 • Growth –Aler 2011 2011-‐2015 7% • Sharp upward trend – LNG – flat momentum since 2014 • Steady flow -‐LPG – increasing trend since since 2014
183 cu.m tons
247 cu.m tons 254 cu.m tons
61 mil tons 75 mil tons
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
cu.m tons -‐ Seaborne trade
LNG Trade
LPG Trade
2014-‐2015: Flat Trend
-‐5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
cu.m tons -‐ Seaborne trade
Liquid Gas Trade % Liquid Gas Trade
2003: <200 cu.m tons
2011:>300 cu.m tons
Liquid Trade in close correla6on with LNG trade
Subjects under review:
Sec6on 2: Today’s Shipping Crisis is a Demand or Supply Crisis? • Dry Bulk Trade – Development of Bulk Carriers Fleet • Wet Trade – Development of Tankers Fleet • Gas Trade – Development of Liquid Tankers Fleet • Container Trade – Development of Containers Fleet
• Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 48% • Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 21% • Declining fleet growth, but excessive no of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units • (3.5% 2014-‐2015) • (10% 2010-‐2012)
since 2014; >10,000 vessels
2006 -‐2009: 6,000-‐7,000 vessels
-‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Dry Bulk Supply -‐ Demand
% fleet in mil dwt % fleet in no. of units %dry bulk trade
Demand – Supply , in terms of units • 2014: Surplus 1% • 2015: Deficit (1%) Demand – Supply , in terms of dwt • 2014: Deficit (1%) • 2015: Deficit (2%)
Wet Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet From 2015: Wet trade exceeds fleet growth in terms of units & dwt
• Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 21% • Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 32% • Declining fleet growth, but excessive no of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units • (1.4% 2014-‐2015) • ( 5% 2010-‐2012)
1,920 841
3,356
5,917
4%
1%
-‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
TANKERS: >10,000 Dwt
Orderbook Current Fleet Fleet Growth
-‐4.00%
-‐2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wet Supply -‐ Demand
% fleet in mil dwt % fleet in no. of units %wet trade
2006 -‐2009: 3,900-‐4,900 vessels
since 2010; >5,000 vessels
Demand – Supply , in terms of units • 2014: Deficit (1.5%) • 2015: Surplus 1% Demand – Supply , in terms of dwt • 2014: Deficit (2%) • 2015: Surplus 1%
• Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 13% • Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 6% • Increasing fleet growth, but low volume of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units • (2.3% 2014-‐2015) • (2.3% 2010-‐2012)
Demand – Supply , in terms of units • 2014: Surplus 7% • 2015: Surplus 6% Demand – Supply , in terms of cu.m • 2014: Surplus 3% • 2015: Surplus 3%
203 231
955
1,277
3%
-‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E
LPG Tankers
Orderbook Current Fleet Fleet Growth
2004-‐2011: 1,000-‐1,200 vessels
Since 2012: .> 1,200 vessels 2015 nears to 1,300 vessels
-‐10.00%
-‐5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
LPG Supply -‐ Demand
% fleet in mil cu.m % fleet in no. of units %lpg trade
1 year TC -‐$/day Modern Tonnage
LNG Tankers Nega6ve Momentum-‐ LPG Posi6ve
16
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
LPG-‐82,000 cbm
65,700 52,000
31,400
LPG-‐ Large Size Categories
2015
2014
2013
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
LNG-‐160,000 cbm
41,000
70,000 90,000
LNG -‐ Large Size Categories
2015
2014
2013
-‐60%
-‐40%
-‐20%
0% 2015-‐2014 2015-‐2013
-‐41%
-‐54%
LNG-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y
0%
50%
100%
150%
2015-‐2014 2015-‐2013
26%
109%
LPG-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
Container Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet From 2013: Fleet growth in terms of units below 1%, but imbalance
• Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 8% • Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 43% • Nega6ve fleet growth, but high volume of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units • (0.3% 2014-‐2015) • (2.3% 2010-‐2012)
Demand – Supply , in terms of units • 2014: Surplus 6% • 2015: Surplus 7% Demand – Supply , in terms of teu • 2014: Surplus 0.3% • 2015: Deficit (1.3%)
% fleet in mil teu % fleet in no. of units %cont trade
1 year TC -‐$/day Modern Tonnage
Containers are gaining ground against the fall in spot rates
18
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2,750 TEU 1,700 TEU
9,250 8,000 7,400 7,000
Container -‐ Small Size Categories
2015
2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
4,400 TEU 3,500 TEU
15,000 10,250
8,800 7,700
Container -‐ Large Size Categories
2015
2014
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
4,400 TEU 3,500 TEU
70%
33%
Container-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y
0%
10%
20%
30%
VLCC Suezmax
25% 14%
Container Small Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
Subjects under review:
Sec6on 3: Bulkers & Tankers : The main vessel categories with the highest growth of investments • Growth of Shipping Investments a\er 2009 • Secondhand Market: Investment Trends • Asset Prices: Bulkers & Tankers per vessel size and age category
• Newbuilding Market: Investment Trends • Asset Prices: Bulkers & Tankers per vessel size and age category
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
19
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
SECONDHAND/NEWBUILDING MARKET (INVESTMENTS)
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 20
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-April 2015
usd
,00
0
SECONDHAND MARKET
Total Purchases Inv
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BC 46% 38% 34% 33% 35% 32% 30%
TNK 20% 26% 28% 29% 33% 37% 32%
Liquid Gas 1% 3% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Cont 8% 9% 9% 12% 13% 13% 17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
% Volume of SH Purchases -‐ Per Vessel Type
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-April 2015
usd
, 0
00
NEWBUILDING MARKET
Total Orders Inv
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BC 42% 56% 37% 24% 37% 33% 20%
TNK 21% 17% 12% 20% 16% 18% 20%
Liquid Gas 2% 4% 5% 8% 8% 10% 6%
Cont 4% 8% 19% 6% 11% 7% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
% Volume of NB Orders-‐ Per Vessel Type
SECONDHAND MARKET (BULKERS/TANKERS)
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 21
380 480 457
104
74,609 67,332
81,111
57,511
0
200
400
600
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
BULKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT
Count of Vessel Purchases Average of Vessel DWT
14
12
10
13
2012
2013
2014
2015
BULKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL AGE 10-‐15 YRS
Average of Vessel Age
52,552 67,318
91,405 80,031
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
TANKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 INCREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT
Count of Vessel Purchases Average of Vessel DWT
11
10
9
9
2012
2013
2014
2015
TANKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL AGE 5-‐10 YRS
Average of Vessel Age
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
Asset Prices – Trends BULKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 22
Handy Vessel Age Shiftting trend >15yrs
Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend
Handysize Vessel Age Shiftting trend 6-‐10yrs
Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend
Handymax Vessel Age Flat 15-‐20yrs
Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend
10,000-‐29,999 DWT
30,000-‐39,999 DWT
40,000-‐49,999 DWT
(HANDY / HANDYMAX)
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
Asset Prices – Trends BULKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 23
(SUPRA/PANAMX/CAPE)
50,000-‐59,999 DWT
Supramax Vessel Age 6-‐10 yrs
Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend
60,000-‐79,999 DWT Panamax Vessel Age 10-‐15 yrs
Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend
Capesize Vessel Age 10-‐15 yrs
Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
Asset Prices – Trends TANKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 24
(SMALL/HANDY/MR) Small Vessel Age Shiftting trend < 10yrs
Asset Price Increasing trend
ST ST Handy Vessel Age Increasing trend > 10yrs
Asset Price Sharp Declining Trend
MR Vessel Age Declining trend < 10yrs
Asset Price Soft Increasing Trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
Asset Prices – Trends TANKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 25
(CRUDE SIZES)
Aframax Vessel Age Declining trend < 10yrs
Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend
Suezmax Vessel Age Declining trend < 10yrs
Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend
VLCC Vessel Age Declining trend < 15yrs
Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
NEWBUILDING MARKET (BULKERS/TANKERS)
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
26
72,462 92,827 86,790
54,493
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
BULKER NB INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT: SUPRAMAX
90,155 89,092 96,798 127,745
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
TANKER NB INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 INCREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT: CRUDE
3%
7%
8%
13%
14%
16%
39%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Panamax
SUEZMAX
SMALL
VLCC
Aframax
Handysize
MR-‐Handymax
TANKER ORDERING PER VESSEL SIZE
2% 2% 2%
5% 16% 16%
21% 30%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Handy (10,000-‐29,999) Panamax
Handymax Supramax
Kamsarmax Capesize
Handysize Ultramax
BULKER ORDERING PER VESSEL SIZE
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
Asset Prices – Trends BULKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
27
Handysize Country Built China-‐ Major shareAsset Price Flat-‐Upward trend
Supramax Country Built Japan-‐ Major shareAsset Price Flat trend
Ultramax Country Built China-‐ Major share
Asset Price Downward trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
(HANDY /MEDIUM SIZES)
Asset Prices – Trends BULKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
28
Capesize Country Built China-‐ Major share
Asset Price Increasing trend
Kamsarmax Country Built China-‐ Major share
Asset Price Flat-‐Upward trend
Panamax Country Built Japan-‐ Major share
Asset Price Flat-‐ trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
(LARGE SIZES)
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
29
MR Country Built SKR Major shareAsset Price Upward trend
Handysize Country Built Japan Major shareAsset Price Upward trend
Small Country Built China Major shareAsset Price Upward trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
(HANDY /MEDIUM SIZES)
Asset Prices – Trends TANKER SEGMENT
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
30
VLCC Country Built China-‐ Major shareAsset Price Increasing trend
Suemax Country Built SKR-‐ Major share
Asset Price Flat -‐ Downward trend
Aframax Country Built China Major shareAsset Price Flat -‐ Upward trend
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
(LARGE SIZES)
Asset Prices – Trends TANKER SEGMENT
CONCLUSION : “OVERCAPACITY PREVAILS”
“2015 -‐2020”: WILL BE CHALLENGING PERIOD
SHIFTING TRENDS IN WORLD FLEET AND INVESTMENTS
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
31
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
• The world fleet is becoming increasingly young from the high contrac6ng ac6vity of previous years -‐ Only 11% of the world fleet is older than 20yrs old
• Scrapping poten6als more in smaller vessel sizes and in age categories 16-‐20yrs old
• Bulk carriers, tankers and containers s6ll comprise the majority of the global merchant fleet. • However, LPG and LNG carriers are increasing gradually the ir share to the world fleet aler 2009
• Decreasing trends for this year in secondhand and newbuilding investments aler the years of 2013 and 2014
• Secondhand Market: Sharp Upward trend in asset prices for crude tankers and new bowom lows in the dry segment for all sizes
• 2015: sets a new cycle in asset prices for bulkers, while year “2012” seems that was the year with the lowest asset prices in the tanker segment since 2009
• 2015: Brings the tanker vessel categories for the first 6me since “2009” in the frontline for shipping investments by grasping the lion share of ac6vity from bulkers
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
32
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
• Scrapping ac6vity implies that this year will set one more year with record levels aler 2012
• Is Demoli6on Ac6vity enough to alleviate the pain of overcapacity?
• The world fleet in now too much excessive compared with 2003 levels, and although shipping demand may not have returned to the levels of 2006-‐2007, it shows bewer figures
• However, trading ac6vity from emerging economies , India and China has to be firmer to narrow the vessel supply and demand imbalance
• Tankers and LPG tankers are the star performers for this year • Overall shipping investments will not loose their pace and follow the new trends of freight
market and asset prices
SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH
33
5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015
For more Research Services, please contact us: Website : www.goldendes6ny.com