March 31, 2015 Ad Jeuken, Simone van Schijndel Deltares · PDF fileAd Jeuken, Simone van Schijndel Deltares Flood early warning systems improve preparedness. ... Delft-FEWS is being

March 31, 2015

Ad Jeuken, Simone van Schijndel

Deltares

Flood early warning systems

improve preparedness

Content

• Early warning systems

• Delft –FEWS

• Purpose, characteristics

• Elements

• Example application

• Benefits

Flood Risk Management

Structural vs Non-Structural approach

Traditional approach to flood risk

management – structural

measures

State-of-the-art – more holistic

approach, considering both

structural and non-structrural

approaches

Flood forecasting and warning is

one of the most important non-

structural approaches

Courtesy Micha Werner

UN ISDR Guidelines for the reduction of flood losses

The operation of a flood warning and response system is the most effective method for reducing the risk of loss of life and economic losses

Elements of early warning systems

Just a FEW(S) Applications…

Deltares & (flow) forecasting

Detection Warning Response

Forecasting

Simulation

Deltares

• Hydrology in real-time; integrator of complex information to provide decision makers

with a platform to take qualitatively good decisions on floods, droughts &

operational management

• Water quality (incl. spills) and ecology (e.g. algae blooms)

• Levee strength

• (Scenario & design studies)

Deltares & (hydrological) forecasting

Detection Warning Response

Forecasting

Simulation

Deltares

• Hydrology in real-time; integrator of complex information to provide decision makers

with a platform to take qualitatively good decisions on floods, droughts &

operational management

• Water quality (incl. spills) and ecology (e.g. algae blooms)

• Levee strength

• (Scenario & design studies)

Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System

Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System

Data

•Data retrieval system

•Data processing components

Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System

Data

Hydraulic and hydrological models

Advanced subgrid

modelling

Coastal

modelling

Fluvial

modelling

Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System Data

Hydraulic Models

Forecasts & warnings

DELFT FEWS – flood forecasting shell

Philosophy

• Framework for organisation for the flood forecasting process

• Integration of (complex) data from several sources - present single

source to forecaster

• Provides general functional utilities

• Open interface to models used for forecasting

• Dissemination of results

• Delft FEWS is an open system – joint development approach

Delft-FEWS • import

• validation • transformation / interpolation

• data hierarchy

• general adapter

• export / report

• administration (data, forecasts) • viewing (data, forecasts)

• archiving

• …

data feeds

models

export &

dissemination

PI

imp

ort

> 150 formats for data import

Integrating forecast models

Delft FEWS independent of model - Key to philosophy of Delft FEWS

• Existing models available – used operationally – maintain

investment (i.e. SOBEK, HEC-RAS, URBS)

• No model available – choose models from wide range –

consider suitability & available knowledge base

• New models from academia – fast track science to operations

•DELFT-FEWS

Model Type Supplier/Owner Country

ISIS 1D Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK

Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria

DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands

TWAM 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK

DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands

Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK

BASEFLOW Baseflow Simulation NWS USA

CHANLOSS Channel loss Simulation NWS USA

CONSUSE Consumptive use of River Simulation NWS USA

Grid2Grid Distributed Hydrologic Model CEH UK

REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands

Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Vieux & Assiciates USA

PCRASTER Dynamic Modelling Software University Utrecht Netherlands

ARMA Error Correction CEH UK

PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK

GLACIER Glacier simulation NWS USA

HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA

SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany

Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark

SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands

SOBEK-2d Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling Deltares Netherlands

RSNELEV Rain Snow Elevation Simulation NWS USA

PDM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK

TCM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK

Sacramento Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands

NAM Rainfall-Runoff DHI Denmark

MCRM Rainfall-Runoff EA UK

Wageningen model Rainfall-Runoff Haskoning Netherlands

SAC-SMA Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

API-CONT Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

SACSMATH Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

TOPKAPI Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Bologna Italy

PRMS Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Karlsruhre Germany

HBV Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt) SHMI Sweden

URBS Rainfall-runoff and hydrological routing Don Caroll Australia

rtcModule Reservoir Simulation Deltares Netherlands

SSARRESV Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

RESSNGL Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

HEC-ResSim Reservoir Simulation USACE USA

LAG/K Routing (hydrological) NWS USA

SARROUTE Routing (hydrological) NWS USA

KW Routing (kinematic wave) CEH UK

DODO Routing (layered Muskingum) EA UK

LAYCOEF Routing Model NWS USA

MUSKROUT Routing Model NWS USA

LAYCOEF Routing model NWS USA

TATUM Routing Model NWS USA

PACK Snow Melt CEH UK

Snow17 Snow Melt NWS USA

TRITON Surge propagation/Overtopping PlanB UK

STF Transfer functions EA UK

Unit-HG Unit-Hydrograph NWS USA

SWMM Urban Rainfall-Runoff USGS USA

RIBASIM Water distribution + Reservoir Deltares Netherlands

Model Type Supplier/Owner Country

ISIS 1D Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK

Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria

DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands

TWAM 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK

DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands

Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK

BASEFLOW Baseflow Simulation NWS USA

CHANLOSS Channel loss Simulation NWS USA

CONSUSE Consumptive use of River Simulation NWS USA

Grid2Grid Distributed Hydrologic Model CEH UK

REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands

Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Vieux & Assiciates USA

PCRASTER Dynamic Modelling Software University Utrecht Netherlands

ARMA Error Correction CEH UK

PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK

GLACIER Glacier simulation NWS USA

HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA

SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany

Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark

SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands

SOBEK-2d Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling Deltares Netherlands

RSNELEV Rain Snow Elevation Simulation NWS USA

PDM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK

TCM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK

Sacramento Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands

NAM Rainfall-Runoff DHI Denmark

MCRM Rainfall-Runoff EA UK

Wageningen model Rainfall-Runoff Haskoning Netherlands

SAC-SMA Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

API-CONT Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

SACSMATH Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

TOPKAPI Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Bologna Italy

PRMS Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Karlsruhre Germany

HBV Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt) SHMI Sweden

URBS Rainfall-runoff and hydrological routing Don Caroll Australia

rtcModule Reservoir Simulation Deltares Netherlands

SSARRESV Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

RESSNGL Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

HEC-ResSim Reservoir Simulation USACE USA

LAG/K Routing (hydrological) NWS USA

SARROUTE Routing (hydrological) NWS USA

KW Routing (kinematic wave) CEH UK

DODO Routing (layered Muskingum) EA UK

LAYCOEF Routing Model NWS USA

MUSKROUT Routing Model NWS USA

LAYCOEF Routing model NWS USA

TATUM Routing Model NWS USA

PACK Snow Melt CEH UK

Snow17 Snow Melt NWS USA

TRITON Surge propagation/Overtopping PlanB UK

STF Transfer functions EA UK

Unit-HG Unit-Hydrograph NWS USA

SWMM Urban Rainfall-Runoff USGS USA

RIBASIM Water distribution + Reservoir Deltares Netherlands

•Model

•Adapter

•Generic Module Adapter

•XML

•Native format

•Native format •Model

Sharing Tools…

> 50 models of different nature

Services offered by Delft FEWS

Import & Export

Validation & Interpolation (temporal & spatial)

Transformation

Model execution (manual, automatic, ensemble)

What-if scenarios & modifiers

Error correction & updating

Performance indicators

Flood mapping

Display (times series, longitudinal, spatial, schematic)

Configuration management

Web reporting

Archiving (Matroos/OpenEarth)

Calibration (OpenDA)

Verification

Delft FEWS – Client Server System

• Servers hosted centrally

• Client access through internet/intranet

• Central servers & distributed clients

• FEWS Scotland

FSS

OCMC

LDSAI

central database

master controller

forecasting shell(s)

operator client

admin interface

server client

central databasecentral databasecentral database

master controllermaster controllermaster controller

forecasting shell(s)forecasting shell(s)

operator clientoperator clientoperator client

admin interfaceadmin interfaceadmin interface

server client

Resilient system for operational forecasting

Platform for operational research, independent of operating system

Fully configurable by (super)users and very scalable

Short cycle from research to operations

Philosophy

• Extension done in co-operation between Deltares & client (& third parties)

• Available to FEWS – available to the FEWS community

• Joint development approach

• FEWS User Community to share developments

• Bringing together all stakeholders in the forecasting process

Free software → central role for user community !!

• Delft FEWS • Open Shell Forecasting

System

Providing the forecaster an interface to data…

Simple graphical user interface

Self explanatory

Key features

• GIS Based

• Overview of data & status

FEWS Scotland – flood status in several catchments, January 2008

FEWS Donau (Austria) – Graphs at key stations

Data visualisation and editing – Graphical data

Powerful graphical tools for viewing time series data

Point time series

Longitudinal profiles (animated)

Editing capabilities – copy to-from e.g. Excel

Historical event at Torwinny, Scotland

Longitudinal Display

Data visualisation – Spatial Data

• Present data spatially

• Animated inundation maps

• Regular and curved gridded products

Data visualisation – Schematic

• ‘simple’ schematic displays with status information

• Overview as well as detailed information

• Example: gate openings

Integration of data

Interfaces to data sources

• Supports standards in data exchange formats: GRIB, NetCDF, etc.

• Data exchange with HIMS (e.g. WISKI, HYMOS)

• Plugin-technology to extend integration of data formats

• Source code of plugin architecture available on Delft-FEWS Wiki

• Emerging standards: WaterML – OpenGIS standard for exchange

of hydrological data (USGS, NWS, CUAHSI)

Generating products

Overview Reports Detailed Reports

HTML Web reports

Internal & External clients

Using and displaying probabilistic data

Delft FEWS database model is inherently ensemble aware

• Import ensemble data (e.g. ECMWF, COSMO-LEPS)

• Run models for ensemble members

• results

• statistical summary

• verification

FEWS-CH:

COSMO-LEPS Forecast for 31-05-2007 00:00 UTC

FEWS-CH:

SRNWP-PEPS Forecast for 31-05-2007 00:00 UTC

Further development & extension

Some current developments

• Dealing with uncertainties

• Verification system (prognostic)

• Calibration

• Real-time control of reservoirs

• Water Quality forecasting

• Temperature forecasting

• Data assimilation techniques (OpenDA.org)

Philosophy

• Extension done in co-operation between Deltares & client (& third parties)

• Available to FEWS – available to the FEWS community

• Joint development approach

• FEWS User Community to share developments

• Bringing together all stakeholders in the forecasting process

Summary

Delft FEWS provides a state of the art forecasting shell

• tailored to suit specific needs

• enables forecasting organisations to take ownership & extend

• provides wide range of functionality for data transformation, interpolation, validation etc.

• open to models & data

• open to extending functionality through plug-ins & services

Potential

• small scale applications – water boards

• administrative areas (regions)

• multi-national (large river basins, basin organisations)

Some figures for Delft-FEWS

An estimated guess: between 250 and 350 people in the world work

on a day-to-day base with Delft-FEWS

Delft-FEWS is being used in over 30 countries with over 50 unique

apllications

Since 2003 our users have invested over 40 M€ in the development of

the system and its use. This investment covers:

• configuration of the system for each individual client

• research in operational water management and forecasting

• software development

• training (Deltares staff, client, intermediairies)

18 User Days (8 NL and 10 International)

Community portal with 500 registered users and >200 downloads

Delft-FEWS worldwide

Delft-FEWS and her partners

Deltares in the Delft-FEWS community

guard philosophy and guarantee robust and stable software

initiate new ideas and connect people

coordinate developments

facilitate new developments

provide releases on a regular basis

provide detailed information on new developments

provide documentation

provide training & courses

provide third parties with Delft-FEWS and train them

cooperate with third parties on new developments

Deltares’ role in community

Examples of collaboration at a national level

Bringing together hydrologists and meteorologists (and other stakeholders)

• National Flood Forecasting System in the UK

• Fluvial and coastal forecasting, development Flood Forecasting Centre, implementation of the G2G model in a FEWS environment

• National Weather Service, Community Hydrological Prediction System (CHPS) in the USA

• Independent RFC’s, but centralized tool development, migration from current NWSRFS to Delft-FEWS

• RWsOS, the approach at the Water Management Centre Netherlands

• a harmonised forecasting system covering all national fluvial and coastal waters in the Netherlands

• HyFS, a national flow forecasting system for Australia

• From a distributed approach to a more centralised approach, with an outlook towards storm surge forecasting

National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS)

•Environment Agency for England & Wales

•Flood warning responsibility

• rivers

• coasts

•1.6 million people at risk

•Wide variety of catchments

•Flooding happens regularly

•Implementation 2003-06

•Harmonisation of 8 regions with 8 different systems &

procedures

•Complex hydrological methods and procedures…

• > 20 different model types

• > 2000 forecasting locations

Community Hydrological Prediction System

The Community Hydrologic Prediction System

(CHPS) will enable NOAA’s water research, development

enterprise and operational service delivery infrastructure

to be integrated and leveraged with other federal water

agency activities, academia, and the private sector

• greater ease in implementing new models

• greater collaboration with agency partners, universities,

international community

SNOW model displays

CHPS deployed across all 13 River Forecast

Centres (projected)

Migrated from current NWSRFS with > 10000

calibrated models

Operational Flow Forecasting at RWS

• Historically organised in Fresh water (rivers) and Salt water (Sea)

systems

• Many different groups are responsible for forecasting (HMCN,

HMCZ, SVSD, WDIJ, Hoogwatergroep, Infocentrum, ..)

• In 2009 a harmonisation project started to optimize and harmonise

the forecasting centres and the dissemination of forecasts

From: Marc Philippart (RWS)

• National Flood Forecasting system for the Bureau of Meteorology

• Migration of existing systems (Peak-Heights, URBS)

• Use of new modelling techniques

• Challenge: one system for 7 regions

• Challenge: add new “research” products

• Challenge: migrate towards a centralised approach

Hydrological Forecasting System in Australia

What’s in it for us and for you?

Relationship with key players allows us to advance Delft-FEWS continuously

Direct involvement in client’s research projects and technology advances

Long-term committment from clients, both in resources and ideas, to support sustainable Delft-FEWS product management

Robust product that is being continuously improved

Access to other Delft-FEWS users around the world; User days (30 & 31 October 2013) and Community Portal (www.delft-fews.com)

Continuity in development of the product

“In the US, Delft-FEWS ties us together as a nation”

Quote from Scott Lindsey from RFC Alaksa, USA

Some conditions for success

Acceptation of a new approach in organisation is often not straight forward, so

an iterative proces is essential

Water expertise, organisational aspects, software and ICT are equally important and need to be addressed in an intergrated approach

Start implementation only after having full commitment

Implementation team…

• respresentation from all groups directly involved

• small team with focus

• team members need to be able to take decisions

Planning to be set in stone

Start thinking about support & maintenance in the early stages of the project

From our Chinese partner...