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Marcello Arosio
RISCHI ASSOCIATI AI
CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Empoli - Valdelsa 27 Marzo 2018
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Marcello Arosio
• Ingegnere Civile & Dottorando allo IUSS di Pavia; • 5 anni d’esperienza nello mondo del rischio • Specialista in DRR and CCA in Vietnam per l’ONU
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Fonte: “Cambiamenti climatici e le politiche ambientali e Territoriali Prof. Stefano Caserini - D.I.C.A. Sez. Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano”
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Fonte: “Cambiamenti climatici e le politiche ambientali e Territoriali Prof. Stefano Caserini - D.I.C.A. Sez. Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano”
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•
•
• Ondate di calore • Siccità • Alluvioni • Cicloni tropicali
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•
••
•
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Esposto
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Stephenson D., Definition, diagnosis and origin of extreme weather and climate events, Climate, Extremes and Society, Cambridge University Press, 2008
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Tempo (anni)
Grandezza Intensità
2 3 5 5 2 2 4 4 = 3 anni in media
Valore con tempo di ritorno pari a 3 anni
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un netto incremento delle massime e minime sopra il 90° percentile
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Variazione precipitazione anno 1991-2008 rispetto a 1961-1990
Fonte: LIBRO BIANCO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI IN TOSCANA - REGIONE TOSCANA Ottobre 2012
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si osserva un calo del numero complessivo di giorni con piogge intense…
… e l’aumento del loro contributo
Fonte: LIBRO BIANCO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI IN TOSCANA - REGIONE TOSCANA Ottobre 2012
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2011 2012
Fonte: LIBRO BIANCO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI IN TOSCANA - REGIONE TOSCANA Ottobre 2012
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R P V E =
RISK
Vulnerability
Exposure
Hazard
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È la probabilità che accada un evento
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E’ il grado di danno che può conseguire da un evento
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E’ il valore delle cose che possono trovarsi a rischio
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“… questa casa ha una probablità del 20% di essere inondata”
Pericolosità
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“… questa casa sarebbe danneggiata al 30% da un alluvione ”
Vulnerabilità
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“… il valore di questa casa è € 100.000”
Esposizione
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R P V E =
20% 30% 100.000 € 6.000 € =
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R H V E =
Magnitudo
pro
bab
ilità
% D
ann
o
Magnitudo
€
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R H V E =
Dan
no
(€
)
Tempo di ritorno
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R H V E =
Modelli idraulici
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R H V E =
Modelli di danno
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R H V E =
Modelli di danno
Magnitudo dell’evento
Gra
do
di d
ann
o
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R H V E = Il patrimonio / Il portafoglio
€ €
€ € €
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•
•
•
R H V E =
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Page 40
2.1 La pericolosità
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Grandi quantità d’acqua
che precipitano in breve tempo
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L’uso del suolo
AUMENTA le portate,
i volumi e la velocità
L’uso del suolo
DIMINUISCE
il tempo di corrivazione
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Esondazione di un corso d’acqua
in occasione di piene
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Una precipitazione di durata pari al tempo di
corrivazione si dice critica in quanto alla
sezione di chiusura arriveranno
contemporaneamente gli afflussi da tutto il
bacino
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Area
Satura
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Movimenti in terra molto spesso innescati da forti precipitazioni
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un lungo periodo con alte temperature e poche precipitazioni
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Precipitazione intense di chicchi e grani ghiacciati
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Generate da grande differenza di temperatura tra masse d’aria associate a venti di altissima intensità
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Scarica elettrica che avviene tra l’atmosfera e la terra a causa della loro carica elettrostatica
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Modelli Meteo
Rischio
Esposizione &
Vulnerabilità
e idraulici
Modelli idrologici
Modelli Climatici
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Necessità di individuare il fenomeno e
produrne una corretta rappresentazione
fisica e probabilistica
Cambiamenti Climatici
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2.2 La vulnerabilità
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Evento Danno
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Magnitudo dell’hazard
Grado del danno
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Studi condotti
su modelli in
scala
Flo
w D
ep
th
Flow Velocity
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Relazione Tirante-Velocità
Stabilità Umana
0.00
0.50
1.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velocità, m/s
Tir
an
te i
dri
co
, m
CSU (Abt et al., 1989)
HUT (Maijala et al., 2001)
Uh = 0.6 mq/s
Monolite (Abt et al., 1989)
campo dei valori sperimentali
Flo
w D
ep
th
Flow Velocity
Esperimenti in
laboratorio
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Tirante, cm100806040200
1
2
3
4
0
Ve
locità
, m
/s
Scale tests (Cacioli Paciscopi,
1999)
Relazione Tirante-Velocità
Mobilizzazione di veicoli
0.00
0.50
1.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velocità, m/sT
ira
nte
id
ric
o,
m
h = 0.65 - 0.18U
campo dei valori sperimentali
valori sperimentali
Flo
w D
ep
th
Flow Velocity
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Effetti (Danni) Evento (Sinistro) Cause (Azioni)
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1. Azioni idrodinamiche
2. Azioni idrostatiche
3. Azioni di erosione
4. Azioni di galleggiamento
5. Azioni dei detriti
6. Azioni non fisiche
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I
Tempo
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pianta
Trascinamento
Sfondamento: - portoni - finestre - cancelli
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Collasso fondazioni Pressione idrostatica
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h
Danni
Attenzione all’utilizzo di curve altezza-danno
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Area alluvionata
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Per il principio di Archimede “un corpo immerso in un fluido in equilibrio subisce una spinta diretta dal basso verso l'alto di intensità pari al peso del volume del fluido spostato”.
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• Spinta di galleggiamento • Pressione idrostatica laterale
• Nessuna azione sulle strutture
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(1) Erosione
(2) Sedimentazione
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prima
dopo
€osti per lo smaltimento !
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Prima Dopo
Monterosso 2011
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Prima Dopo
Monterosso 2011
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(1) Azioni chimiche
(2) Azioni biologiche
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Detersivi Tinture
Vegetazione
Rifiuti industriali Fognatura
Drenaggio urbano Microorganismi
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Calcestruzzo
Aggressione chimica
Legno Pareti
Ammuffimento Legno
Formazione muffe e funghi
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E’ interessante analizzare l’evoluzione temporale dei danni risultante dalle diverse
dinamiche temporali dei fenomeni fisici e dai diversi tempi di reazione a ciascuno di essi
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v
h
u
s
c
b
Velocità idrodinamica
Altezza idrometrica
Umidità
Sedimentazione detriti
Aggressione chimica
Aggressione biologica
tempo
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•
•
Modellodidanno
Variabilidell’eventofis
ico
Cara eris chedelbeneesposto
Valoredelbeneesposto
www.floodloss.eu
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Modello di danno
Variabili dell’evento fisico
Caratteristiche del bene esposto
Valore del bene esposto
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•
•
–
–
–
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Danno
Costi bonifica Bonifica
Pulizia
Ripristini
Strutturale
Fondazioni
St. portanti verticali
St. portanti orizzontali
Non-Strutturale
Tamponamenti e tramezzi
Intonaci
Rifiniture
Porte e finistre
Impianti
Demolizioni e sgomberi
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Variable Description Unit of
measure
Range of
values
Default value
he Water depth
outside the
building
m >=0 [0;5] step=0.1 m
v Maximum velocity
of the water
perpendicularly to
the building
m/s >=0 0
s Sediment load % on the water
volume
[0;100] 0
d Duration of the
flood event
hours >0 0
q Contaminant load % on thw water
volume [0;100] 0
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Variable Description Unit of
measure
Range of values Default value
FA Footprint area m2 > 0 100
NF Number of floors - ≥ 1 3
EP External perimeter m > 0 40
IP Internal perimeter m > 0 2.5*EP
BA Basement area m2 ≥ 0 25
OA Other stuff area
(at the ground
level)
m2 ≥ 0 10
BT Building type - 1=Detached, 2=Semi-detached
3=Apartment house
1
BS Building structure - 1=Reinforced concrete, 2=Unreinforced
masonry
3=Reinforced masonry, 4=Wood
1
PD Heating Plant
distribution
- 1=centralized
2=distributed
1 if YY≤1980
2 otherwise
PT Heating plant Type - 1=radiator
2=pavement
2 if YY>2000 and FL>1
1 otherwise
FL Finishing level - 0.8= low, 1=medium
1.2=high
1
YY Year of
construction
- ≥ 0 1994
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Scenari climatici e ambientali
intensità Mitagazioni strutturali e
non strutturali Intensità ridotte
Mappe di pericolosità
Dati economici Dati sociali Dati ambientali
Mitigazione economica
Mitigazione sociale Mitigazione ambientale
Funzioni di danno economiche
Funzioni di danno sociale
Funzioni di danno ambientale
Analisi multi criterio
Valutazione del rischio alluvione
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
R I S K
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Penning-Roswell, E., and Wilson, T. Gauging the impact of natural hazards: the pattern and cost of emergency response during flood events. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 31, 2 (2006), 99–115 Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A. Assessment of economic flood damage. Natural Hazards Earth System Science 10 (2010), 1697–1724
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Rinaldi SM, Peerenboom JP, Kelly TK. Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems Magazine 2001;21(6):11–25.
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Grazie per la vostra attenzione!!!