Mar 2017 - Chill out, Condo buyers: Toronto real estate market charts

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Charts

Creative Commons license

Scott Ingram

CPA, CA, MBA

Realtor

Chalmers House

by Blok 70

Mar

2017

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

http://www.century21.ca/scott.ingram


https://www.flickr.com/photos/blok70

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Introduction

You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??

Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number

you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow

will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is

the 416, so I pull that out of TREB’s numbers.

I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more

interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim

to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”, Scott Ingram

$356K YoY

+33.1%

$7K MoM

-0.5%

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Quick Facts

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”, Scott Ingram

- House prices $7K in March, but usually

drops slightly from Feb

- Row houses sold for $1 million on

average ($999K, but close enough). Old high was $927K in Oct ’16.

- House ( $265K) and Condo ( $86K)

prices have increased in 3 months YTD

more than any full year in history

Condo buyers need to chill out

⌂ $134 YoY

+31.3%

$37K MoM

+7.1%

- Condo sale transactions are 21% YTD

after an all-time high last year (23.7K)

- People spent $1.279 billion on Condo Apts in March, 70% over last March

(29% more transactions and 32% higher

price) and first time over a billion

- Active listings still way down ( 62% YoY)

Detached $1,562K / Semi $1,090K / Row $999K

Mar vs. ‘16: $356K (33.1%)

Mar vs. ‘12: $679K (90%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 13.7%

- Average Rowhouse is was $1 million in March? What?

- Price drop from Feb to Mar is normal (4 of last 6 years)

416 Average Sold Price(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Condo Apt $550K / Condo Townhouse $661K

Mar vs. '16: $134K (31.3%)

Mar vs. '12: $203K (57%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 9.4%

- Avg House in Aug ‘10 ($550K) now buys Condo Apt

- Last 2 months have increased $37K and $39K – more

than increases of 17 of the last 20 full years

958

1,1101,074

1,156 1,170 1,157

1,104 1,096

1,183 1,1871,222

1,165

1,219

1,4371,430

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

421444

428452 456 459

438459 462

474 484 476485

524

561

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


$000s Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


416 Residential Sales Volume(number of sold transactions in the month)


Mar vs. '16: 9.5% (vs. Prior 5 years: 11.2%)

YTD vs. '16: 0.2%

- Despite the media hype, house transactions haven’t

been changing much

- Prior 5 years stayed within 4% of the average 5-year

volume as 416 houses essentially have a fixed supply

Mar vs. '16: 24.8% (vs. Prior 5 years: 50.8%)

YTD vs. '16: 20.9%

- 24th straight month of setting a monthly transaction

volume record

- Resale Condo sales demand has increased as more

and more people are priced out of houses

1,000

1,609

2,066

2,297

2,468 2,472

2,134 2,217

2,039 2,143

1,937

1,350 1255

1818

2579

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

672

1,162

1,513

1,889

2,102 2,066

1,320

1,162

1,508 1,532 1,394

715

626

1059

1656

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


416 Active Listings(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)


Mar vs. '16: 11.8% (vs. Prior 5 years: 37%)

YTD vs. '16: 29%

- Active listings moved a bit closer towards last year’s

levels, but still at only 63% of 5 year norms

Mar vs. '16: 62% (vs. Prior 5 years: 66%)

YTD vs. '16: 60%

- March is the 5th month in a row with less than half of

the prior year’s listings

1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452

1,633 1,456

1,283 1,119

1,629 1,612 1,307

599

679836

1228

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3,491 3,718

4,028 4,177 4,249

4,041

3,608

3,134 3,111

2,791

2,203

1,397 1529 1443 1546

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


416 Months Of Inventory(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)

Mar vs. '16: 0.2 months (19%)

Mar vs. Prior 5 years: 0.6 months (43%)

- A “balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory.

We’ve been in a “seller’s market” for over 20 years

- March is 14th consecutive new monthly record low

Mar vs. '16: 1.4 months (69%)

Mar vs. Prior 5 years: 2.1 months (78%)

- First time Condo MOI lower than House since Dec ‘08

- Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 13

consecutive months, the longest stretch below 2.0,

and first time under 2.0 since Jan ’09

3.5

2.3

1.91.8 1.7 1.6 1.7

1.4 1.51.3

1.1 1.01.2

0.80.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1.7

1.10.9

0.8 0.8 0.71.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8

1.10.8 0.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Average Days On Market(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)


Mar vs. '16: 4.2 days (33%)

Mar vs. Prior 5 years: 59 days (40%)

- First time ever that House DOM below 10

- With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory

of listings, houses that are on the market are being

snapped up quickly.

Mar vs. '16: 12.6 days (52%)

Mar vs. Prior 5 years: 15.8 days (57%)

- 2nd consecutive all-time low (old record low DOM was

20 in March ‘10)

- Usually May and June have lowest DOM. Will this go

even lower?

24

15 13

11 12 10

13 15

12 12 14

18

18

12

9

0

10

20

30

40

50



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

39

31

24 23 22 22 23

24 23

21 21

23 22

16

12

0

10

20

30

40

50


Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


416 Annual Price Increases(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016)


20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $59K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.6%.

20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $20K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.1%.

19 46

(11)

27 36

2

49

10 12

130

(51)

57 40

22 33

117

54

105

211

265

2 19 12 20 12 3

19 7 11 42

(34)

60

20 4

(6)

29 17 22

65 86

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD

$000s $ IncreasesHouses Condos

7%

17%

(3%)

9% 11%

1%

13%

2% 3%

29%

(9%)

11%7%

3% 5%

17%

7%

12%

22% 23%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD

% IncreasesHouses Condos


416 Market Breakdown

1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%

5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%

10 years ago: Condos 46% / Houses 53%

As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new

condos are completed, transaction share should keep

shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter

home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.

While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume,

in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.

Detached73%

Semi20%

Row7%

Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

Apartment90%

Townhouse10%

Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

Houses40%

Condos59%

Share of Transactions - last 12 months

Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.

Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music

communities, Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown

knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. He works with the

venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.

@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram

Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

https://twitter.com/areacode416
