Mapping NACP Progress onto Long-term Carbon Cycle Science Goals

MAPPING NACP PROGRESS ONTO LONG-TERM CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE GOALS

Anna M. Michalak

Poster Session Titles – A• Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle• Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions• Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to Change• Ecosystem Impacts of Change• Carbon Management• Decision Support

Poster Session Titles – B• Diagnosis• Attribution• Tools / Instruments / Data• Prediction• Decision Support• Site Synthesis• Regional Synthesis• MCI Synthesis• Non-CO2 Synthesis• Coastal Synthesis

Poster Session Titles – C• Site Synthesis• The Linked Carbon and Water Cycles -- The Atmosphere-

Land-Ocean Continuum• Remote Sensing & Disturbance• The Tropical and Sub-tropical Carbon Cycle• Model Evaluation and Data Assimilation• Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future

Projections• The State of the Science in Assessing the North American

Carbon Budget• Estimating Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, their

Uncertainties, and their Implications

Poster Session Titles – D• Atmospheric Measurements and Analyses• Terrestrial and Riverine Measurements and Inventories, including

Flux Measurements• Coastal and Oceanic Measurements• Mid-Continent Intensive Study• Managed Forests and Woodlands• Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems• Integrating Land, Coastal Margins, and Oceans• Regional Analyses• Continental Carbon Budgets and Analyses• Carbon Management and Decision Support• Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Estimating

Carbon Fluxes• Integrating Social Science and Economics into NACP• Data Systems/Management

Poster Session Titles – A• Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle (103)• Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions (35)• Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to Change (44)• Ecosystem Impacts of Change (24)• Carbon Management (20)• Decision Support (19)

Poster Session Titles – B• Diagnosis (30)• Attribution (45)• Tools / Instruments / Data (16)• Prediction (21)• Decision Support (21)• Site Synthesis (8)• Regional Synthesis (27)• MCI Synthesis (9)• Non-CO2 Synthesis (5)• Coastal Synthesis (17)

Poster Session Titles – C• Site Synthesis (2)• The Linked Carbon and Water Cycles -- The Atmosphere-

Land-Ocean Continuum (27)• Remote Sensing & Disturbance (34)• The Tropical and Sub-tropical Carbon Cycle (2)• Model Evaluation and Data Assimilation ((16)• Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future

Projections (39)• The State of the Science in Assessing the North American

Carbon Budget (21)• Estimating Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, their

Uncertainties, and their Implications (12)

Poster Session Titles – D• Atmospheric Measurements and Analyses (14)• Terrestrial and Riverine Measurements and Inventories, including

Flux Measurements (49)• Coastal and Oceanic Measurements (14)• Mid-Continent Intensive Study (8)• Managed Forests and Woodlands (9)• Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems (9)• Integrating Land, Coastal Margins, and Oceans (4)• Regional Analyses (28)• Continental Carbon Budgets and Analyses (38)• Carbon Management and Decision Support (10)• Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Estimating

Carbon Fluxes (14)• Integrating Social Science and Economics into NACP (1)• Data Systems/Management (3)

D B C A

And the answer is…

US Carbon Cycle Science Plan Goals, 1999

1. Quantify and understand the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.

2. Quantify and understand the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean.

3. Determine the impacts of past and current land use on the carbon budget.

4. Provide greatly improved projections of future atmospheric concentrations of CO2.

5. Develop the scientific basis for societal decisions about management of CO2 and the carbon cycle.

Origin of the NACP

Origin of OCB

CCSP 1999 led to the creation of the NACP and OCB. Additional goals didn’t create specific research programs. Slide from: Ken Davis

Implementation Strategy, 2005

NACP Questions1. What is the carbon balance of North America and

adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“Diagnosis”)

2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (“Attribution”)

3. Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (“Prediction”)

4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (“Decision support”)

Current marching orders for the NACP.Slide from: Ken Davis

A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan

(2011)

Available at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Comments / Updates: http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/carbonplanning.php

Working Group MembershipRob Jackson – Co-lead(Duke U.)

Ruth DeFries (Columbia U.)

Dennis Ojima (Heinz Center)

Gregg Marland – Co-lead(Oak Ridge National Lab; now at Appalachian State U.)

Scott Denning (Colorado State U.)

Brian O’Neill (NCAR)

Lisa Dilling (U. Colorado)

Jim Randerson (UC Irvine)

Anna Michalak – Co-lead(U. Michigan;now at Carnegie Inst. Science)

Andy Jacobson (NOAA / U. Colorado)

Steve Running (U. Montana)

Steve Lohrenz (U. Southern Mississippi)

Brent Sohngen (Ohio State U.)

Chris Sabine – Co-lead(PMEL)

David McGuire (U. Alaska)

Pieter Tans (NOAA-ESRL)

Bob Anderson (Columbia U.)

Galen McKinley (U. Wisconsin)

Peter Thornton (ORNL)

Deborah Bronk (Col. of William & Mary)

Charles Miller (JPL)

Steve Wofsy (Harvard)

Ken Davis (Penn State)

Berrien Moore (Climate Central)

Ning Zeng (U. Maryland)

Overall Directions Many research priorities identified in the 1999 Plan

remain important Additional priorities are also needed, including:

1. Effects of human activities2. Vulnerability and resilience of ecosystems 3. Efficacy and consequences of carbon management

policies, strategies, and technologies Additional emphasis is also needed to:

Evaluate uncertainties in our understanding of the global carbon cycle

Coordinate research across scientific disciplines An optimally designed and integrated system of

sustained observations is critical to progressAvailable at: http://carboncyclescience.gov/

Fundamental Science Questions2011 U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan:

How do natural processes and human actions affect the carbon cycle, on land, in the atmosphere, and in the oceans?

How do policy and management decisions affect the levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere?

How are ecosystems, species, and natural resources impacted by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the associated changes in climate, and by carbon management decisions?


Six Goals1. Provide clear and timely explanation of past and

current variations observed in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 - and the uncertainties surrounding them.

2. Understand and quantify the socio-economic drivers of carbon emissions, and develop transparent methods to monitor and verify those emissions.

3. Determine and evaluate the vulnerability of carbon stocks and flows to future climate change and human activity, emphasizing potential positive feedbacks to sources or sinks that make climate stabilization more critical or more difficult.


Six Goals (continued)4. Predict how ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural

resources will change under different CO2 and climate change scenarios.

5. Determine the likelihood of ‘success’ and the potential for side effects of carbon-management pathways that might be undertaken to achieve a low-carbon future.

6. Address decision maker needs for current and future carbon cycle information and provide data and projections that are relevant, credible, and legitimate for their decisions.


Research Goals and Program ElementsProgram Elements

Goals Sustained observations

Studies of system

dynamics

Modeling, prediction, synthesis

Communication dissemination

Explain variations in atmospheric CO2 & CH4

Understand drivers and quantify emissions

Evaluate carbon vulnerability

Predict ecosystem changes

Evaluate carbon pathways

Address needs for information


1. Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon CycleObserving and modeling variability and mechanisms of carbon-cycle exchange in the Earth system

2. Drivers of Anthropogenic EmissionsUnderstanding and quantifying socioeconomic drivers of carbon emissions, and developing transparent methods to monitor and verify those emissions

3. Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to ChangeEvaluating the vulnerability of carbon stocks to climate change

4. Ecosystem Impacts of ChangePredicting how ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources will change under different CO2 and climate change scenarios

5. Carbon ManagementEstimating success and side effects of carbon management

6. Decision SupportFulfilling decision maker needs for current and future carbon cycle information

Poster Session Titles – D (2007)• Atmospheric Measurements and Analyses (14)• Terrestrial and Riverine Measurements and Inventories, including

Flux Measurements (49)• Coastal and Oceanic Measurements (14)• Mid-Continent Intensive Study (8)• Managed Forests and Woodlands (9)• Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems (9)• Integrating Land, Coastal Margins, and Oceans (4)• Regional Analyses (28)• Continental Carbon Budgets and Analyses (38)• Carbon Management and Decision Support (10)• Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Estimating

Carbon Fluxes (14)• Integrating Social Science and Economics into NACP (1)• Data Systems/Management (3)

Poster Session Titles – B (2009)• Diagnosis (30)• Attribution (45)• Tools / Instruments / Data (16)• Prediction (21)• Decision Support (21)• Site Synthesis (8)• Regional Synthesis (27)• MCI Synthesis (9)• Non-CO2 Synthesis (5)• Coastal Synthesis (17)

Poster Session Titles – C (2011)• Site Synthesis (2)• The Linked Carbon and Water Cycles -- The Atmosphere-

Land-Ocean Continuum (27)• Remote Sensing & Disturbance (34)• The Tropical and Sub-tropical Carbon Cycle (2)• Model Evaluation and Data Assimilation ((16)• Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future

Projections (39)• The State of the Science in Assessing the North American

Carbon Budget (21)• Estimating Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, their

Uncertainties, and their Implications (12)

Poster Session Titles – A (2013)• Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle (103)• Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions (35)• Vulnerability of Carbon Stocks to Change (44)• Ecosystem Impacts of Change (24)• Carbon Management (20)• Decision Support (19)

Poster Topics at NACP AIM MeetingsYear

Goals 2013 2011 2009 2007


103 96 144 161

Understand drivers and quantify emissions 35 14 6 9

Evaluate carbon vulnerability 44 20 9 7

Predict ecosystem changes 24 14 13 2

Evaluate carbon pathways 20 6 5 4

Address needs for information 19 1 3 6

Poster Topics at NACP AIM MeetingsYear

Goals 2013 2011 2009 2007


103 96 144 161

Understand drivers and quantify emissions 35 14 6 9

Evaluate carbon vulnerability 44 20 9 7

Predict ecosystem changes 24 14 13 2

Evaluate carbon pathways 20 6 5 4

Address needs for information 19 1 3 6

Changes• U.S. CO2 emissions are dropping.• California and the EPA are regulating GHG emissions.• Shale gas extraction has grown dramatically / gas

leakage is a significant new issue.• The age of satellite CO2 and CH4 measurement is

upon us.• A private-sector GHG measurement network exists.• Considerable interest in methods to measure

anthropogenic GHG emissions has emerged from the US government.

Slide from: Ken Davis

Some topics that caught my attention…

Goals


Large scale synthesis / collaborative / coordinated efforts: MCI (Ogle), NACP IS, MsTMIP (Huntzinger), CMS (Pawson), Ameriflux (Baldocchi), PalEON (Dietze), etc.


Methane (Wofsy, Kort), Urban (Wofsy, Kort, Shepson), Drivers (Reilly)


Arctic (McGuire, Miller), Methane (Miller),Carbon-water coupling (Lohrenz)

Predict ecosystem changes Climate sensitivity (Schwalm, Babst, Chang)

Evaluate carbon pathways Science / policy interactions (Lemprière, Kurz)


Effective communication: Affect – yes (Kiehl), Intuition – no (Kahan), Know their truth – yes (Inglis)

A completely biased list of …


Goals








Terrestrial sink (2000-2005): meta-synthesis of NACP regional interim synthesis

Slide from: Tony King


Goals









Two slides from Eric Kort presentation removed.

Detecting policy-relevant megacity greenhouse gas emission changes from space and earth-based observations (Eric Kort, Wayne Angevine, Phil DeCola, Riley Duren, Christian Frankenberg, Charles Miller, Sally Newman, Tomohiro Oda, Coleen Roehl, Paul Wennberg, Debra Wunch)


Goals










Slide from Chip Miller presentation removed.

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE): Results from the 2012 Alaska Science Flights (Charles Miller, Steven Dinardo, CARVE Science Team)

Approach: Coupled Terrestrial-Ocean Models

Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model used to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of delivery of water, carbon, and nitrogen and compared to data-based observations

DLEM terrestrial outputs linked to a physical-biogeochemical model to characterize coastal carbon fluxes and ecosystem dynamics

Modeling efforts will be supported by field survey-based and satellite-based observations of carbon fluxes and other biogeochemical processes

Tian et al., 2010a,b; Tian et al.,2011, Tian et al.,2012

Hoffman et al., Ann. Rev., 2011;Fennel et al., 2011 and in prep.

Hyun and He (2010); Xue et al. in prepSlide from: Steve Lohrenz


Goals







Predict ecosystem changes Climate sensitivity (Schwalm, Babst, Chang)Evaluate carbon pathways


Two slides from Christopher Schwalm presentation removed.

The turn of the century drought in western North America (Christopher Schwalm, Christopher Williams, Kevin Schaefer, Dennis Baldocchi, Thomas Black, Allen Goldstein, Beverly Law, Walt Oechel, K.T. Paw U, Russell Scott, Bardan Ghimire)


Goals








Evaluate carbon pathways Science / policy interactions (Lemprière, Kurz)Address needs for information

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2006Making a decision

Probability distribution of Canada’s projected managed forest ecosystem GHG balance, 2008-12

Source: Kurz et al., PNAS 2008

The analysis suggested a 100% probability that the managed forest would be a source in 2008-12 due to NDs

Canada decided to not include the managed forest in its Kyoto accounting

Slide from: Tony Lemprière


Goals








Evaluate carbon pathways Science / policy interactions (Lemprière, Kurz)


Effective communication: Affect – yes (Kiehl), Intuition – no (Kahan), Know their truth – yes (Inglis)

Mapping NACP Progress onto Long-term Carbon Cycle Science Goals

Documents

linked carbon

riverine measurements

coastal margins

analysescarbon management

uptake of anthropogenic

data assimilationscience

decision supportreconciling

current land use