Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017 Pascal Peduzzi Director, UNEP/GRID-Geneva Geneva, 30 August 2017 www.grid.unep.ch Mapping Disaster Risk Example of the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
Pascal Peduzzi
Director, UNEP/GRID-Geneva
Geneva, 30 August 2017
www.grid.unep.ch
Mapping Disaster Risk
Example of the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
Capacitybuilding
Emergingissues
Linked data
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
From local to global
Local
Sub-national
National
Global
Regional
+ French speaking countries
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
200520062006
Contribution to 11 reports on risk & global change 2004
20072008
2009
2010
2011
2012
+ Scientific papers
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 20175
Tectonic Hazards
New Global Hazard Datasets created for GAR 2009
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 20176
New Human & Economic exposure datasets (1 x 1 km)
Population and GDP distribution Models made for every years from 1970 to 2010
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 20177
1006 Past floods as detected by satellite sensors
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 20178
Compilation of Past Earthquakes ShakeMaps
5686 events downloaded over the period 1973-2007
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 20179
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201710
>6000 tropical cyclones events were processed
Global coverage for the period 1970 to 2015.
Using central pressureMaximum windspeedLatitude …
Individual past hazardous events modeling
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201711
Nargis
2 May 2008
Myanmar
Extraction of exposure and other parameters
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201712
Date
Iso3
Killed
Est. damages
Footprints Pop. exp. GDP exp.Pop.Urb
exp.
GDP Urb.
expCategory
1 10,500,000 43,000,000 4,800,000 32,500,000
2 1,500,000 3,500,000 1,400,000 525,000
3 400,000 800,000 375,000 150,000
Country: Myanmar
Iso3: MMR
Date: 02 May 2008
Preview Tropical Cyclones Database EM-DAT, CRED
DatabaseDate
Iso3
Killed: 138,366
VulnerabilityDatabase 43 indicators
Damages: 4,000 US$ millions
GDPcap: 1,227 US$
Voice & acc.: -2.16
Governance efficiency : -1.608
Radio/inhabitant: 99.68%
HDI: 0.592
…
Urban growth: 2.55%
…
Date
Iso3
GDPcap
Voice & acc.
Governance efficiency
Radio/inhabitant
HDI
…
Urban growth
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201713
1 AIDS estimated deaths, aged 0-49 (% of tot. pop.)
2 non GLC2000 bare land
3 Arable and Permanent Crops - % of non GLC2000 bare land
4 Motor vehicles in use - Passenger cars (thousand)
5 Motor vehicles in use - Commercial vehicles (thousand)
6 Physical exposure to conflicts
7 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)
8 Arable and Permanent Crops - Total
9 Arable and Permanent Crops - Percent of Land Area
10 Control of Corruption
11 Deforestation rate
12 % of population w ith access to electricity
13 Forests and Woodland (% of Land Area)
14 Gross Domestic Product - Purchasing Pow er Parity per Capita
15 Gross Domestic Product - Purchasing Pow er Parity
16 inequality (Gini coefficient)
17 Human Induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD)
18 Government Effectiveness
19 Human Development Index (HDI)
20 Per capita government expenditure on health (PPP int. $)
21 # of hospital beds per 100,000 habitants # of doctors
22 infant mortality and malnutrition (though are also factored into HDI)
23 Improved Drinking Water Coverage - Total Population
24 telecommunications (phone density per 100,000 habitants)
25 Political Stability
43 indicators on:Economy,
Demography,
Environment,
Development,
Early Warning,
Governance,
Health,
Education,
…
List of vulnerability parameters considered
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201714
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
Calibrated
using past
disasters
Modelled
based on
physical and
geographical
datasets
Population or
assets as
extracted using
GIS.
To be identified
using multiple
regression
analysis.
Equation of risk used in the study *
* UNDRO (1979), Natural Disasters and Vulnerability Analysis in Report of Expert Group Meeting
Events footprints (8762 physical events): 5686 Earthquakes, 1106 floods, 4182
tropical cyclones). For which we extracted exposure and socio-economical
contextual parameters: a database of 124,000 records (over 40 years, 208 countries,
43 parameters, in theory > 375,000 data cells, but “some” no data : 124,000 data cells).
Events with reported losses successfully georeferenced:
718 Earthquakes, 620 floods, 1525 tropical cyclones).
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201715
Tropical cyclones riskEarthquakes riskMultiple Risk
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201716
From hazardous events to frequency and exposure
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201717
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
Exposure
Hazards
Vulnerability
Natural variability
AnthropogenicChanges
Climate
EnvironmentDEVELOPMENT
Disaster RiskManagement
Adaptation
Disaster
GHG emissions, deforestation,…
DISASTERRISK
Shematic IPCC representation of risk
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201719
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x VulnerabilityRisk
Expected frequency of occurrence of different intensities
and types of threats (e.g. cyclones, floods,
earthquakes,…) for a specific area.
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
The probability of “potential losses” for some particular cause, place and period. It has three
components:
People, assets, present in the hazard area.
Percentage of exposure losses should an event of a
specific type and severity occur (varies between 0 and
1). In this study, also includes coping capacity.
Introduction: what is risk ?
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201720
Aggregation of human exposure at country level
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201721
Aggregation of economical exposure at country level
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201722
REALIZED RISK!!!
Tropical Cyclones riskFlood riskEarthquakes realized riskLandslides riskMultiple risk
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201723
Landslides risk
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201724
About 2.2 million people
are exposed to
landslides worldwide.
55% of mortality risk is
concentrated in 10
countries, which also
account for 80% of the
exposure.
Comoros, Dominica,
Nepal, Guatemala,
Papua New Guinea,
Solomon Islands, Sao
Tome and Principe,
Indonesia, Ethiopia, and
the Philippines
Landslides (modelled for both precipitation
and earthquakes)
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201725
Flood risk
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201726
Disaster risk is intensively concentrated
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
Global Flood Model
NEW GLOBAL FLOOD MODEL
5 returning periods
NEW GLOBAL FLOOD MODEL
5 returning periods
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
NEW GLOBAL FLOOD MODEL
5 returning periods
NEW GLOBAL FLOOD MODEL
5 returning periods
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201730
VanuatuMexico
BangladeshSolomon Ilands
China
Italy
OmanSaudi Arabia
Monserrat
Modelled fatalities per year (absolute)
Modelled fatalities per million inhabitant per year (relative)
Mexico
Multi Mortality Risk Index (MRI)
Vanuatu
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201731
Floods Mortality Risk Index (MRI)Cyclones Mortality Risk Index (MRI)Earthquakes Mortality Risk Index (MRI)Landslides Mortality Risk Index (MRI)
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 201732
The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform
http://www.grid.unep.ch/preview
How to access the data ?
Mapping Disaster Risk © UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2017
PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform
http://preview.grid.unep.ch
Nos publications sur le risque:
http://preview.grid.unep.ch/GCV
PreventionWeb
http://www.preventionweb.net
Base de données sur les pertes
EM-DAT
http://www.emdat.be
Quelques sites d’accès aux données et références