Manure Happens: The Consequences of Feeding Seven Billion Human Omnivores Eric A. Davidson July 25, 2017 Fifth International Conference on Nitrification and Related Processes
Manure Happens: The Consequences of Feeding Seven Billion Human Omnivores
Eric A. DavidsonJuly 25, 2017
Fifth International Conference on Nitrification and Related Processes
Fowler et al. 2013 The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century. Phil Trans R Soc B 368: 20130164
NATURE|Vol 461|24 September 2009“Editor’s note Please note that this Feature and the Commentaries are not peer-reviewed research. This Feature, the full paper and the expert Commentaries can all be accessed from http://tinyurl.com/planetboundaries.”
Updated by Steffen et al. 2015. Science
Consumed Animal
Products
N inputs:synthetic N fertilizers
manure
& natural N fixation
Consumed Crops
Crop production
Groundwater & surface waters
NH4+ NO3
- DON Npart
NH3 N2O NOX N2
NH4+ NO3
- DON Npart
NH3 N2O NOX N2
Atmosphere
feed
Agriculture
14%
4%Animal production
Nitrogen: A Very Leaky Element
Oenema et al. 2009. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 133, 280-288.
6.5 Tg N 4.8 Tg N
24.7 Tg N
23.3 Tg N13.7 Tg N
Unknown20 – 40%
N2
3 – 23%Fates of intentional N fixation in the U.S. for 2007. C-BNF = crop biological N fixation; H-B= Haber-Bosch.
Alteration of N Flows in the U.S.
• Intentional Nr creation accounts for 2/3rds of total N2 fixation in the U.S.
• Nearly 2/3rds of unintentional Nr is from vehicle use, while a majority of the remainder is from stationary power plants and industrial boilers.
• About 3/4ths of intentional Nr enters US agricultural systems. Synthetic fertilizer comprises 2/3rds of Nr input to U.S. agriculture, with the remainder originating from C-BNF. Industrial products like nylon and explosives account for the remaining 25% of intentionally fixed Nr in the U.S.
• About 1/3rd of total Nr is incorporated into products, about 1/3rd is lost as Nr to the broader environment, about 1/3rd is denitrified or lost to unknown sinks.
• Nitrogen use efficiency is about 38% for agriculture and about 55% for all intentional Nr.
From chapter by Benjamin Z. Houlton, Elizabeth Boyer, Adrien Finzi, James Galloway, Allison Leach, Daniel Liptzin, Jerry Melillo, Todd S. Rosenstock, Dan Sobota, and Alan R. TownsendBiogeochemistry (2013) 114:11-23
Eshleman et al. 2013. Surface water quality is improving dueto declining atmospheric N deposition. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47, 12193e12200.
“These unanticipated region-wide water quality benefits can be attributedto NOx emission controls brought about by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (and subsequent U.S. NOX control programs) and reflect a water quality “success story” in the Chesapeake Bay restoration” : Eshleman et al. 2016. Atmospheric Environment (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.07.004
Mo Fo; Lo Po
• Eutrophication of estuaries; dead zones; harmful algal blooms
• Nitrate in drinking water• NOx, O3, and PM2.5 air pollution• N2O as greenhouse gas & stratospheric
ozone reactant• Acid rain & biodiversity loss
The Haber-Bosch process is one of the greatest public health boons in human history
Drinking Water Nitrate
• U.S. standard of 10 ppm• In place because of
methylglobinemia
• The need for maintaining the standard is a matter of recent controversy
Methemoglobinemia“blue baby syndrome”
Davidson et al. 2012. Issues in Ecology, Report Number 15, Ecological Society of America.
WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer expert working group: “ingested nitrate or
nitrite under conditions that result in endogenous nitrosation is probably carcinogenic to humans”
NOCs are potent carcinogens and teratogens in animals including non-human primates.
Davidson et al. 2016. J. Environ. Studies Science
?
Davidson et al. 2016. J. Environ. Studies Science
Soil Nitrogen
Agricultural BNF
Fertilizer
Leaching/runoff (e.g., NH4
+,NO3-, DON,PON)
Volatilization/emission (e.g., NH3, NO, N2O, N2)
Cropproducts
Deposition
Manure
NUE = Crop products/Inputs
Nsurplus = Inputs - Crop product
Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59
Mining soil nitrogen0
Hypothetical limit to efficiency
Income level
N su
rplu
s
a
Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59
The Environmental Kuznets Curve
a
Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59
France
USA
N surplus follows the EKC model for western Europe and North America
𝑵𝑵𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 = 𝑵𝑵𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚(𝟏𝟏
𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵− 𝟏𝟏)
NUE = Nyield/Inputs
Nsur = Inputs - Nyield
Soil NitrogenAgricultural BNF
Fertilizer
Leaching/runoff (e.g., NH4
+,NO3-, DON,PON)
Volatilization/emission (e.g., NH3, NO, N2O, N2)
Cropproducts
Deposition
Manure
Tunneling through EKC
Nsur (kg ha-1 yr-1)
Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59
Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59
Strong fertilizer subsidies have kept the fertilizer/crop price ratios low in China and India, which discourages NUE
Linda ProkopyPurdue Univ.
Davidson et al. 2015. JEQ 44:305–311
Applying the Right Source at the Right Rate at the Right Time and in the Right Place, where Right is defined by practice impact on system performance
Paul Fixen
SourceSlow-release fertilizerNitrification inhibitorBalanced nutrients
RateSoil testingOn-line toolsCrop sensors
PlaceTimeSpring vs. fallSide dressing during
growing season
Project SENSESensors for Efficient Nitrogen Use and Stewardship of the Environment
A research/educational project of the Nebraska Corn Board, the Central Platte, Little Blue, Lower Loup, Lower Platte North and Upper Big Blue Natural Resources Districts, USDA-NIFA, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln On-Farm Research Network
Richard Ferguson; Univ. Nebraska
Project SENSE Means Grower SENSEFertilizer N (lb/acre) 192 150Yield (bu/acre) 226 221PFPN (lb grain/lb N) 68 87
N
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Kearney
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BUFFALO
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CH ER R Y
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UPPER ELKH ORN
SOUTH PLAT TE
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UPP ER REPUB LICA N
LOWER R EPUB LICA N
LO WER BIG BLU E
LEWI S AND CLARK
PAPIO -MIS SOUR I RIV ER
LOWER P LATTE SOUTH
LOWER P LATTE N ORTH
Reference MapReference Map
Central Platte Natural Resources DistrictGroundwater Quality Management ProgramCentral Platte Natural Resources District
Groundwater Quality Management Program
0 - 7.5 ppm#
7.5 - 15 ppm#
Over 15 ppm#
Nitrate Levels (ppm)Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Management Areas
N
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Grand Island
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LO WER BIG BLU E
LEWI S AND CLARK
PAPIO -MIS SOUR I RIV ER
LOWER P LATTE SOUTH
LOWER P LATTE N ORTH
Reference MapReference Map
Central Platte Natural Resources DistrictGroundwater Quality Management ProgramCentral Platte Natural Resources District
Groundwater Quality Management Program
0 - 7.5 ppm#
7.5 - 15 ppm#
Over 15 ppm#
Nitrate Levels (ppm)
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Management Areas N
EW
S
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Island
Central City
Clarks
ibory
Silver Creek
Chapman
ArcherMERRICK
POLK
NANCE
HAMILTON
PLATTE
(/3 4
28 1
(/30
(/30
(/92 (/92
(/14
(/30
(/14
(/66
(/30
(/14
(/30
(/9 2
(/39
(/30
(/3 9
(/30
CH ER R Y
HO LT
SIO U X
CU ST E R
LIN C OL N
SH ER ID AN
GA RD E N
KN OX
KE ITH
DA WES
RO CK
MO R RIL L
BR OWN
GA GE
CH AS E
DU ND Y
KIM B AL L
GR AN T
DA WSO N HA LL
CL AY
OT OE
CH EY E NN E
CE DA R
BU FF AL O
HA YE S
LO UP
CA SS
YO RKPE RK IN S
BL AIN E
BO YD
FR ON T IER
BO X BU TT E
BO ON E
BU RT
PL AT TE
BA NN E R
FU RN A S
AR TH U R
TH OM A SHO O KE R
PO LK
LO GA N
SA LIN E
AN TE LO P E
AD AM S
PIE R CE
VA LL EY
DIX O N
BU TL ER
DO DG E
TH AY ER
CU M ING
HA RL AN
LA NC AS T ER
PH EL PS
KE YA P AH A
SA UN D ER S
DE UE L
MC PH E RS O N
SE WAR D
NA NC E
HO WAR D
MA DI SO N
GR EE L EY
HIT C HC O CK
WA Y NE
FR AN K LIN
FIL LM O RE
WH E EL ER
WE B ST ER
SH ER M AN
GA RF IE LD
RE D WILL OW
KE AR N EYGO SP E R
ME RR IC K
NU CK O LL S
HA MI LT ON
CO LF AX
SC OT T S B LU F F
PA WNE EJE FF ER SO N
NE MA H A
ST AN TO N
RIC H AR D SO N
JO HN S ON
SA RP Y
TH UR S TO N
DO UG L AS
DA KO T A
WA S HIN G TO N
LOWER L OUP
UPPER LOU PNORTH PLA TTE
TWI N P LATTE
NEMA HA
UPPER NI OBR ARA WH ITEMID DLE NIO BRAR A
LOWER E LKHO RN
CENTRA L PLA TTE
LITTLE BLUEMID DLE REPU BLIC AN
UPPER ELKH ORN
SOUTH PLAT TE
UPPER BI G BLUE
TRI BASI N
LOWER N IO BRAR A
UPP ER REPUB LICA N
LOWER R EPUB LICA N
LO WER BIG BLU E
LEWI S AND CLARK
PAPIO -MIS SOUR I RIV ER
LOWER P LATTE SOUTH
LOWER P LATTE N ORTH
Reference MapReference Map
Central Platte Natural Resources DistrictGroundwater Quality Management ProgramCentral Platte Natural Resources District
Groundwater Quality Management Program
0 - 7.5 ppm#
7.5 - 15 ppm#
Over 15 ppm#
Nitrate Levels (ppm)Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Management Areas ● 0 – 7.5 ppm
● 7.5 – 12 ppm
● > 12 ppm
Availability of the database has allowed both research and education to be targeted to soil/aquifer/cropping systems which are more challenging to manage.
LOWER LOUP
UPPER LOUPNORTH PLATTE
TWIN PLATTE
NEMAHA
UPPER NIOBRARA WHITEMIDDLE NIOBRARA
LOWER ELKHORN
LITTLE BLUE
CENTRAL PLATTE
MIDDLE REPUBLICAN
UPPER ELKHORN
SOUTH PLATTE
UPPER BIG BLUE
TRI BASIN
LOWER NIOBRARA
LOWER REPUBLICAN
LEWIS & CLARK
UPPER REPUBLICAN
LOWER BIG BLUE
PAPIO-MISSOURI RIVER
LOWER PLATTE SOUTH
LOWER PLATTE NORTH
Central Platte Natural Resources District –Groundwater Management Area (GWMA)
Richard Ferguson; Univ. Nebraska
Trends in the Central Platte Valley
Average of values from producer reports in GWMA, representing ~ 300,000 acres
y = -0.1523x + 321.41R² = 0.824
y = -2.1092x + 4289.4R² = 0.6312
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Soil
Resi
dual
NO
3-N
(lb/
acre
)
Gro
undw
ater
NO
3-N
(ppm
)
Richard Ferguson; Univ. Nebraska
Initial Goal of African Green RevolutionMoving from 1 to 3 tons per hectare
0 N added = 1 ton/ha maize60-70% of water lost throughevaporation
50 kg N ha-1 = 3 tons/ha maize30 -40% of water lost throughevaporation
Cheryl Palm & Pedro Sanchez, Columbia University
Hickman et al. 2015. JGR-B
Increasing consumption of animal protein
Westhoek et al. (2011) “The Protein Puzzle”Reay et al. (2011) European Nitrogen Assessment
Per capita meat consumption has started to decline in the USA, especially beef consumption.http://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/
Personal N footprints2
Calculate your nitrogen footprint at:
www.N-Print.org Allison LeachUniversity of New Hampshire
red meat
diary products
cereals/carbs
fruits/vegetables
chicken/fish/eggs
other misc.
beverages
oils/sweets/condiments
Total greenhouse gas emissions by supply chain tier associated with household food consumption in the U.S.
Climate impact (metric tons CO₂e/household-yr)
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
transport
production
wholesale/retail
“The Problem of What to Eat” Conservation. Natasha Loder, Elizabeth Finkel,Craig Meisner, and Pamela Ronald. July-September 2008 9(3):31 Jason Clay
SVP Markets, WWF-U
Take-home messages
Sustainable intensification can improve NUE, increase crop yields, and reduce N pollution, and
Technological advances will be helpful and a lot can be done with existing technology, but
Social and economic impediments remain, therefore
MoFoLoPo will require integration among agronomy, social sciences, and other disciplines and cooperation across sectors and stakeholder groups, and
Personal dietary choices matter
Thank you for your attentionBon appétit!