Manufacturing Decline Within LA County: Using Cluster Analysis to Understand the Trends and Potential Policy Approaches

Manufacturing Decline Within LA County:

Using Cluster Analysis to Understand the Trends and Potential Policy Approaches

GIS: UP206aErin Coleman3/14/2011

INTRODUCTION:

Manufacturing as a whole has declined dramatically within the U.S., California, and LA County between 1998 and 2008. In 1998, manufacturing contributed about 18% of the total annual payroll within the U.S. By 2008, it contributed only 12 percent. Within California, in 1998, manufacturing also contributed about 18% of the annual payroll to the state. By 2008, it contributed about 11 percent.

In terms of establishment counts, we see that the greatest number decline between 1998 and 2008 within California has occurred within LA County.

What has this decline looked like in the county and how can cluster analysis provide insights into policies which can aid the local economy?

Decline in Number of MNFN Establishments between 1998 and 2008 throughout California Counties

By: Erin Coleman, Source: U.S. Census County Business Patterns

Manufacturing Professional, scientific & technical services

Health care and social assistance

Finance & insurance

Wholesale trade

Information

Retail trade

Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services

Management of companies & enterprisesTransportation & warehousingConstruction

Arts, entertainment & recreation

Accommodation & food services

Other services (except public administration)

Real estate & rental & leasing

Educational services

Auxiliaries (exc corporate, subsidiary & regional mgt)

Mining

Unclassified establishments

0%

10%

20%

1998 Percentage Breakdown of Annual Payroll within LA County:

Professional, scientific, and technical servicesHealth care and social assistance

Manufacturing

Finance and insurance

Information

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Administrative and Support and Waste Mang and Remediation Srvs

Management of companies and enterprisesConstructionTransportation and warehousing

Arts, entertainment, and recreation

Accommodation and food services

Other services (except public administration)

Real estate and rental and leasing

Educational services

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Industries not classified

Forestry, fishing, hunting, and Agriculture Support

0%

10%

20%

2008 Percentage Breakdown of Establishments within LA County:

2008 Percentage Breakdown of Annual Payroll within LA County:

Retail trade Professional, scientific & technical servicesHealth care and social assistance

Wholesale trade

Other services (except public administration)

Manufacturing

Accommodation & food services

Construction

Real estate & rental & leasing

Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation servicesFinance & insuranceInformation

Arts, entertainment & recreation

Transportation & warehousing

Educational services

Unclassified establishments

Management of companies & enterprises

Auxiliaries (exc corporate, subsidiary & regional mgt)

Utilities

Mining Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support

0%

10%

20%

1998 Percentage Breakdown of Establishments within LA County:

Professional, scientific, and technical servicesRetail trade

Health care and social assistance

Wholesale trade

Other services (except public administration)

Accommodation and food services

Manufacturing

Construction

Finance and insurance

Real estate and rental and leasingArts, entertainment, and recreationAdministrative and Support and Waste Mang and Remediation Srvs

Information

Transportation and warehousing

Educational services

Management of companies and enterprises

Industries not classified

Utilities

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Forestry, fishing, hunting, and Agriculture Support

0%

10%

20%

MANUFACTURING DECLINE WITHIN LA COUNTY

SELECTION OF APPAREL INDUSTRIES: 315232 and 315212

Within LA County, the apparel industries 315232, Women’s & Girls’ Apparel Manufacturing, and 315212, Cut and Sew Apparel Contractors ranked among the top 7 between 1998 and 2008 in terms of employee counts, establishment counts, and total annual payroll contributed to the county.

315232In 1998, Los Angeles county had over 80 percent of the state's share of the 315232 industry. In 2008, this share increased to just under 90 percent. Due to this, Los Angeles County is used as the baseline for which to compare overall change.

315212For the Industry 315212, this data shows that in 1998, 77% of all establishments within all counties in CA were located within La County. In 2008, this figure increased to 83 percent. Due to these findings, my baseline measure for comparing change in establishment counts, size, and employee counts is LA County as a whole, rather than the state at large or even the 5 county metropolitan area.

Location Quotient Analysis: Comparing LA County Zip codes to the County as Whole

Location Quotient Analysis: Comparing LA County Zip Codes to the County as a Whole

315212 Cross Year Analysis: Absolute Count Comparison of Employees and Establishments

1998-2008 Percentage Change Comparison of Employee and Establishment Counts

315232 Contraction in Establishment Range Between 1998 and 2008

SUNRISE BRANDSEmployees: 100-249 801 S FIGUEROA ST # 2500, 90017323-780-8250

Los Angeles

ONE CLOTHINGEmployees: 100-2492121 E 37TH ST, 90058323-846-5700 JUST FOR WRAPS

Employees: 100-249 5815 SMITHWAY ST, 90040323-585-6878

CARESSE LINGERIEEmployees: 100- 2492313 S SANTA FE AVE. 90058213-239-0503

WOW KNIT INCEmployees: 100-2491115 E 14TH ST 90021213-688-0404

315232 Women & Girls Apparel ManufacturingLocation of Largest Establishments by employee size according to EDD

Employee Names and Contact information sourced from EDD

315232 Hotspot Analysis: Cluster Identification (LA County 1998-2008)

Hot Spot Analysis Cluster Index: Calculated with Raster Calculator Variables Included:

1. 232empch: shows the percentage change in average employee counts between 1998 and 2008 – included because places with high levels of employee growth might indicate clustering

2. 232essc: shows the percentage change in average establishment size (by employee) between 1998 and 2008 – included because places with increase in average establishment size might indicate clustering

3. 232lsemp: shows the percentage change of average employee counts between 1998 and 2008 within each zip divided by the change in employee counts during this time span within LA County at large – included because zip codes with a lower level of decline than the county might show signs of agglomeration/ local resilience.

4. 232lqest: shows the percentage change in number of establishments between 1998 and 2008 within each zip divided by the change in establishment counts during this time span within LA County at large- included because zip codes with a lower level of decline than the county might show signs of agglomeration/local resilience.

The four variables at right were given equal weighting in this index

MODELING

Raster Reclassify

Original Data

Metadata

SkillsModelingMetadataMeasurement: Using graphics features to display distanceOriginal dataHotspot analysisInset MapGeoprocessing: Clipping , Dissolve: (zip code field)Select by attribute: (Location quotients)Radar chartsHotspot analysis index: using raster calculatorRasterizing and reclassifying layersProjecting dataPoint graduated symbols

THE ENDThank you!