Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q4, 2008

ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyUnited States

A Manpower Research Report

Q4

2008

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 1Regional Comparisons

Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 13International Comparisons – Americas

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 22

About Manpower 23

Q4/

08

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

More than 14,000 interviewshave been conducted withemployers across the United States to measureanticipated employmenttrends between Octoberand December 2008. All participants were asked,“How do you anticipate totalemployment at your locationto change in the three monthsto the end of December2008 as compared to thecurrent quarter?”

Among U.S. employers surveyed, 22% foresee anincrease in hiring activity, and 13% expect a decline in staff levels during Quarter 4 2008. Fifty-nine percentanticipate no change in the hiring pace, while 6% areundecided about their October – December hiring plans.

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the results show that employers expect a slightdecrease in hiring when compared to Quarter 3 2008.The fourth quarter Net Employment Outlook for theUnited States is considerably weaker than one year ago at this time.

Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook.’’ This figure is derived by taking the percentage ofemployers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employersthat expect to see a decrease in employment at theirlocation in the next quarter.

United States Employment Outlook

’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

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Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

% % % % % %

4th Quarter 2007 27 9 58 6 18 18

1st Quarter 2008 22 12 60 6 10 17

2nd Quarter 2008 26 9 60 5 17 14

3rd Quarter 2008 26 10 58 6 16 12

4th Quarter 2008 22 13 59 6 9 9

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

1

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Employers in six of the 10 industry sectors surveyedanticipate a slight decrease in hiring plans compared to three months ago, according to seasonally adjustedsurvey results. For Quarter 4 2008, employers in the Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade,Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services sectorsexpect a decrease, while Construction, Education and Public Administration foresee a similar hiring pacecompared to Quarter 3 2008. Mining is the only sectorwhere employers expect to increase hiring.

Employers in the Northeast and Midwest anticipateweakening hiring conditions, and employers in the Southare less optimistic about adding staff compared toQuarter 3 2008. Employers in the West are slightly moreoptimistic about hiring plans in the upcoming quarter.

Across all regions, employers in the West and theNortheast share the most favorable hiring outlook, whileemployers in the Midwest foresee the least promisingjob prospects for Quarter 4 2008.

According to seasonally adjusted survey results,employers in nine of the 10 industry sectors surveyedexpect a decrease in staff levels compared to last year at this time, including Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/PublicUtilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/RealEstate, Education, Services and Public Administration.Only Mining employers anticipate an increase in hiring in the coming quarter versus Quarter 4 2007.

Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%

Construction 15 22 58 -75 2

Education 24 9 62 15 105

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 15 12 67 6 3 5

Manufacturing – Durables 23 16 55 6 7 9

Manufacturing – Non-Durables 19 14 61 6 65

Mining 27 3 57 13 2624

Public Administration 15 14 66 1 85Services 22 11 61 6 11 14

Transportation & Public Utilities 20 10 63 7 10 10Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 13 52 6 16 8

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Don’t KnowOutlook Adjusted

% % % %

Midwest

Northeast 24 12 59 5 12 11

22 13 59 6 9 9

21 13 61 5 8 8

South

West 25 15 52 8 10 11

% %

3

Regional ComparisonsMidwest +8 (8)%Twenty-one percent of employers surveyed in theMidwest anticipate adding staff and 13% expect todecrease workforce levels, resulting in a Net EmploymentOutlook of +8%. When seasonal variations are removedfrom the data, the Quarter 4 2008 employment forecastis slightly weaker than the previous quarter, with a morenotable drop in hiring activity compared to last year at this time. Employers in the Midwest anticipate theweakest hiring intentions when compared with the threeother regions surveyed.

Among the 10 industry sectors surveyed in the Midwest,employers in seven sectors express decreased optimismabout hiring, including Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,Education and Services. Mining and Constructionemployers anticipate increasing staff levels, and Public Administration employers anticipate stable hiring conditions.


SeasonallyAdjusted


%%%%% %All Industries 21 13 61 5 8 8Construction 13 23 59 5 -10 3Education 921 66 4 12 5Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 11 6 77 6 5 6Manufacturing – Durables 22 18 56 4 4 7Manufacturing – Non-Durables 22 12 62 4 10 9Mining 0 0 100 0 40Public Administration 12 17 67 4 -5 6Services 17 11 66 6 6 10Transportation & Public Utilities 15 719 5 6 7Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 12 53 6 17 9


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The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, SouthDakota, Wisconsin.

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Northeast +12 (11)%In the Northeast, 24% of employers surveyed anticipatean increase in staffing, while 12% expect to decreasestaff levels, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of+12%. Seasonally adjusted data shows hiring intentionsdecreasing slightly from the previous quarter and one yearago at this time. Northeast employers share the mostfavorable hiring outlook with employers in the West.

Six of the 10 industry sectors surveyed in the Northeastanticipate a decrease in hiring for Quarter 4 2008.Thosesectors include Mining, Construction, Non-DurableGoods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Servicesand Public Administration. Employers in the DurableGoods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Education sectorsanticipate stable hiring conditions for the October –December period.


SeasonallyAdjusted


%%%%% %All Industries 24 12 59 5 12 11Construction 17 23 55 5 -6 3Education 820 67 5 12 8Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 17 14 66 3 3 6Manufacturing – Durables 28 12 54 6 16 16Manufacturing – Non-Durables 21 14 60 5 7 8Mining 0 0 100 0 -60Public Administration 11 12 70 7 -1 3Services 23 10 62 5 13 16Transportation & Public Utilities 21 6011 8 10 9Wholesale & Retail Trade 31 11 52 6 20 10


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The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,Rhode Island, Vermont.

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South +9 (9)%In the South, 22% of employers surveyed plan to addstaff, while 13% expect a reduction in hiring. This resultsin a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. According to seasonally adjusted survey results, employers areexpecting a moderate decrease in hiring from theprevious quarter, with a considerable decrease in thehiring pace compared to one year ago at this time.

Hiring activity is expected to decrease in seven of the 10 industry sectors surveyed for Quarter 4 2008.These include Construction, Durable and Non-DurableGoods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and PublicAdministration. Mining, Wholesale/Retail Trade andEducation employers indicate stable hiring intentionscompared to the previous quarter.


SeasonallyAdjusted


%%%%% %All Industries 22 13 59 6 9 9Construction 15 19 61 5 -4 2Education 927 60 4 18 14Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 14 14 66 6 0 2Manufacturing – Durables 22 16 56 6 6 8Manufacturing – Non-Durables 15 14 64 7 1 4Mining 29 4 58 9 2625Public Administration 18 12 65 5 6 9Services 23 10 61 6 13 16Transportation & Public Utilities 19 6511 5 8 8Wholesale & Retail Trade 28 13 53 6 15 8


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The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

6


West +10 (11)%Twenty-five percent of employers surveyed in the Westare likely to increase staff levels, while 15% expect totrim payrolls during Quarter 4 2008, resulting in a NetEmployment Outlook of +10%. According to seasonallyadjusted survey data, employers in the West anticipatea slight increase in hiring compared to the previousquarter but a considerable decrease in hiring intentionswhen compared to Quarter 4 2007.

Among the 10 industry sectors surveyed, employers in eight sectors, including Mining, Durable GoodsManufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,Education, Services and Public Administration, plan to remain stable or increase hiring for the October –December period. Non-Durable Goods Manufacturingand Construction employers anticipate a slight decreasein staff levels. Along with employers in the Northeast,employers in the West have the most favorableemployment outlook of the four regions surveyed.


SeasonallyAdjusted


%%%%% %All Industries 25 15 52 8 10 11Construction 13 25 54 8 -12 -3Education 1030 54 6 20 13Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 21 13 55 11 8 10Manufacturing – Durables 24 15 52 9 9 11Manufacturing – Non-Durables 19 15 53 13 4 5Mining 33 0 34 33 4433Public Administration 18 15 61 6 3 7Services 27 14 51 8 13 17Transportation & Public Utilities 30 516 13 24 20Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 17 48 6 12 7


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The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,Washington, Wyoming.

7

Mining employers have the most favorable hiring outlookfor the balance of 2008, according to seasonallyadjusted data. Services employers are also indicatingfavorable hiring intentions. Finance/Insurance/Real Estateemployers are expecting a softer hiring environment whileConstruction employers anticipate the weakest fourthquarter hiring plans among all industry sectors surveyed.

Construction

Education

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Manufacturing – Durables

Manufacturing – Non-Durables

Mining

Public Administration

Services

Transportation & Public Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

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2

15 10

-10

24 26

1 8

11

10

14

16 8

9 7

5

10

6

5

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

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30-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Sector Comparisons

8


Construction -7 (2)%The hiring pace in the Construction sector is expectedto remain unchanged compared to Quarter 3 2008,according to seasonally adjusted survey data. A look at the hiring expectations from one year ago at this timeindicates a considerably weaker employment outlook.

Employers in the Northeast and the Midwest share the most favorable hiring outlook, while employers in the West indicate the weakest hiring plans.

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Education +15 (10)%According to seasonally adjusted survey data, Education employers anticipate no change in the hiringpace compared to the previous quarter at this time. Year-over-year, employers show a moderate decrease in hiring optimism.

Looking across all regions surveyed, employers in theSouth have the most optimistic hiring outlook, whileemployers in the Midwest indicate the most conservativehiring sentiments.

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0

25

5

10

15

20


-10-505

101520253035


Finance, Insurance & Real Estate +3 (5)%

Hiring plans for the October – December period show aslight dip versus the previous quarter, and are considerablylower compared to one year ago at this time, accordingto seasonally adjusted survey data. This is the weakestemployment outlook for the Finance/Insurance/RealEstate sector since Quarter 2 1992.

The strongest job prospects are reported by employers inthe West, with employers in the South showing the leastfavorable employment outlook of all regions surveyed.

Manufacturing – Durable Goods +7 (9)%When seasonal variations are removed from the data,hiring optimism for the upcoming quarter in the DurableGoods Manufacturing sector declined slightly comparedto Quarter 3 2008. Measured against last year at thistime, employers indicate a considerable decline in hiring intentions.

In the Northeast, Durable Goods Manufacturers expectthe most optimistic hiring outlook, while employers in the Midwest anticipate the weakest job prospectsamong the regions surveyed.

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-10

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-505

1015202530


Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods+5 (6)%Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers report a slightdecrease in hiring plans for Quarter 4 2008, whenseasonal variations are removed from the data.Compared to one year ago at this time, hiringexpectations are significantly lower for this sector.

Regional hiring patterns indicate the strongest hiringexpectations in the Midwest, while the employmentlandscape in the South looks least favorable.

Mining +24 (26)%Employers in the Mining sector anticipate an increase inemployment levels for the October – December periodcompared to the previous quarter. Hiring optimism alsoincreased compared to one year ago at this time.

Of the four regions surveyed, Mining employers in theWest are the most optimistic about their hiring plans,while employers in the Northeast anticipate the mostreservation about adding employees.

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30

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10152025


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Public Administration +1 (8)%According to seasonally adjusted survey results, employers’hiring plans remain stable compared to Quarter 3 2008,while hiring expectations decreased considerably whencompared to one year ago at this time.

Public Administration employers in the South express themost confidence in hiring, and employers in the Northeastare the least confident about increasing staff levels.

Services +11 (14)%Quarter-over-quarter, the hiring pace for the Servicessector decreased slightly, and is moderately lower thanhiring expectations from one year ago, according toseasonally adjusted survey results.

Among the regions, employers in the West are themost optimistic about increasing staff levels, andMidwest employers show the most hesitation abouttheir hiring plans.

12


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25

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15

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35

-10-505

1015202530


Transportation & Public Utilities +10 (10)%On a seasonally adjusted basis, Transportation/PublicUtilities employers reported a slight decrease in hiringplans compared to the previous quarter and one yearago at this time.

The strongest job prospects are reported in the West,while the least favorable job outlook is in the Midwest,when compared to the other regions surveyed.

Wholesale & Retail Trade +16 (8)%When seasonal variations are removed from the data, thehiring intentions of Wholesale/Retail Trade employers are less favorable than Quarter 3 2008. Employer optimism isconsiderably lower compared to one year ago at this time.This is the weakest outlook for the Wholesale/Retail Tradesector since Quarter 3 1991.

Of the four regions surveyed, hiring is expected to be mostactive in the Northeast, while employers in the West are themost reserved about adding employees.

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Global Employment Outlook

Americas

Asia Pacific

Australia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

EMEA*

Austria

Belgium

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

UK

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

Net Employment Outlook



Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 4 2008

Quarter 3 2008

Quarter 3 2008

Quarter 3 2008

12 (15)1

%

7 (6)1

7 (6)1

4 (4)1

11 (9)1

8 (8)1

3 (5)1

%

%

20 (22)1

9 (17)1

12 (15)1

27 (25)1

47 (45)1

37 (37)1

25 (24)1

3 (1)1

16 (13)1

0 (-3)1

13 (11)1

7 (5)1

3 (1)1

11 (12)1

%

9 (9)1

7 (8)1

3 (4)1

8 (8)1

11 (10)1

5 (4)1

%

%

18 (17)1

8 (13)1

9 (10)1

15 (16)1

48 (43)1

16 (25)1

17 (23)1

-7 (-3)1

8 (10)1

-9 (-5)1

9 (10)1

-1 (0)1

-5 (-2)1

21 (13)1

20 (21)1

40

13 (14)1

15 (14)1

29

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2008 to Q4 2008

-1 (-3)1

2 (3)1

0 (2)1

-1 (0)1

-3 (-1)1

3 (2)1

2 (-1)1

-2 (-5)1

-1 (-4)1

-3 (-5)1

-12 (-9)1

1 (-2)1

-21 (-12)1

-8 (-1)1

-10 (-4)1

-8 (-3)1

-9 (-2)1

-4 (-1)1

-8 (-5)1

-8 (-3)1

-1 (-1)1

1 (1)1

2 (2)1

-1 (-1)1

-4 (-4)1

3 (3)1

-8 (-8)1

-11 (-11)1

-14 (-13)1

-17 (-16)1

-9 (-9)1

1 (1)1

-33 (-28)1

6 (7)1

-12 (-11)1

-10 (-12)1

-18 (-18)1

-5 (-5)1

-14 (-14)1

-4 (-4)1

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q3 2008

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2007 to Q4 2008

*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa. 1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 13 quarters worth of data is required.

Quarter 4 2007

%

Quarter 4 2007

%

29 (28)1

11 (16)1

13 (12)1

12 (13)1

47 (42)124 (25)1

22 (26)1

26 (26)1

49 (53)1

Quarter 4 2007

%

8 (8)1

5 (6)1

4 (5)1Czech Republic 3 1 -2 ––

12 (12)1

5 (8)1Greece 19 12 -7 ––

8 (7)1

18 (22)1

9 (13)1South Africa 17 17 0 -1027

Poland 29 19 -10 ––

Romania 26 21 -5 ––

14 (15)1

13 (14)1

-1 (2)1

16 (17)1

21 (20)1

Costa Rica 27 29 2 -534

Colombia – 22 – ––

55

United States 16 (12)1 9 (9)1 -7 (-3)1 -9 (-9)118 (18)1

Canada

Mexico

Peru

-8 (1)1

-5 (-7)1

-11

-3 (-3)125 1932Argentina -6 -13

-6 (-6)113 12–Guatemala -1 –

-26

14


Nearly 55,000 employers have been interviewed across33 countries and territories to measure anticipatedemployment trends* between October and December 2008.

Employers in 29 countries and territories Manpowersurveyed expect to add to their workforces in Quarter 42008, while three countries report negative hiringexpectations. However, the majority of employers expectto ease the pace of hiring compared to three months ago,with employers in 25 countries and territories reportingweaker outlooks compared to Quarter 3. Five countriesand territories indicate improved hiring plans from threemonths ago. Where year-over-year data is available,Outlooks in 22 countries and territories have declinedcompared to last year at this time.

Quarter 4 employment prospects are strongest in India,Costa Rica, Peru, Singapore, Taiwan, Colombia,Romania, Poland, Argentina, Australia and South Africa.Employer hiring expectations are weakest in Spain,Ireland and Italy, with Spanish employers reporting their least optimistic Outlook since the survey beganthere in 2003.

On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continueto report positive Net Employment Outlooks; however,they are all weaker than those reported 12 months ago.Employers in Peru and Costa Rica are the mostoptimistic about adding employees in the region.Meanwhile, the Outlook in the U.S. is the weakest infive years and hiring expectations in Mexico, whilehealthy, signal the first contraction of strong employerhiring patterns in four years. Across Asia Pacific,employers expect to continue to add to their payrolls;however, all plan a hiring slowdown compared to threemonths ago. Job prospects are strongest in India,Singapore and Taiwan. In the Europe, Middle East &Africa (EMEA) region, Outlooks decline in 12 of 17countries from three months ago with UK employersreporting the gloomiest Outlook in 14 years. Outlooksalso decline in 10 countries when a year-over-yearcomparison is made. On the other hand, Outlooksimprove or remain stable in eight EMEA countriescompared to Quarter 3 – Austria, Belgium and theNetherlands improve and France, Germany, South Africa,Sweden and Switzerland are relatively stable. Notably,employers in the Netherlands are reporting their mostoptimistic Outlook since the survey began there in 2003.

* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted datawhere available.

Asia Pacific28%

EMEA28%

Americas44%

Survey Respondents by Region

Research for the Quarter 4 2008 ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly55,000 human resource directors and senior hiringmanagers from public and private organizationsworldwide. 44% of the respondents came from eightcountries in the Americas; 28% from eight countriesand territories across Asia Pacific; and 28% from 17 countries in EMEA.

15

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Argentina 50

40

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-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Canada

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Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Colombia50

40

30

20

10

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-10

-20

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Costa Rica

Over 24,000 interviews have been conducted acrossArgentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala,Mexico, Peru and the United States to measureemployment prospects for Quarter 4 2008. While positiveNet Employment Outlooks are reported in all countriessurveyed, employers in all countries where year-over-yeardata is available expect to slow the pace of hiring fromQuarter 4 2007, with notable declines seen in Peru and Argentina. Compared to three months ago, onlyCanadian and Costa Rican employers are reportingimproved hiring plans.

Employers in Colombia are surveyed for the first timethis quarter and report one of the most optimistic NetEmployment Outlooks in the region; only employers in Costa Rica and Peru are more optimistic aboutadding employees in the quarter ahead. On the otherhand, employers in Guatemala and the U.S. are theleast optimistic about adding employees. The Outlookfor the U.S. – the least optimistic in five years – isslightly weaker compared to Quarter 3 but considerablyweaker compared to Quarter 4 2007. Employer hiring expectations in Mexico, while still positive, are moderately weaker year-over-year and those in Canada are just slightly less optimistic.

International Comparisons – Americas

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Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

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-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mexico

Peru50

40

30

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-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USA

Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

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-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Guatemala

17

50

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-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

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20

10

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-20

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

50

40

30

20

10

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-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

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India joined the survey in Q3 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Australia China

Hong Kong India

Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted acrossthe Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiringactivity between October and December 2008.

While hiring prospects remain positive in the Asia Pacificregion, they are weaker compared to three months agoin all eight of the countries and territories surveyed;however, the decline is less pronounced in India andTaiwan. The trend is similar when a year-over-yearcomparison is made – weaker Outlooks across the regionwith only Indian and Taiwanese employers expecting tolift the pace of hiring. The hiring forecast in the Services

sector is notably weaker in the region compared to one year ago and a fall in confidence in this key growthsector has a major impact on these labor markets.

Employers in India, Singapore and Taiwan are anticipatingthe most robust hiring activity in the region for theupcoming quarter, while those in New Zealand, Chinaand Japan report the least optimistic hiring intentions.Notably, New Zealand employers are reporting their mostsubdued hiring plans since the survey was establishedthere in Quarter 2 2004.

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

18


Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

New Zealand

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30

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50

60

70

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

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20

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-20

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Singapore Taiwan

19

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

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-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

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-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Austria Belgium

France

Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted withemployers across 17 EMEA countries to measureanticipated employment trends for Quarter 4 2008.

Employers in 13 countries are anticipating varyingdegrees of positive hiring activity for the next threemonths; however, hiring expectations are generallyweaker across the region compared to Quarter 3 andthis time last year. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison,forecasts have improved or remain relatively stable ineight countries.

Romanian employers are reporting the strongest hiringexpectations in the EMEA region, while the weakest – andonly negative hiring expectations found in Europe andglobally – are reported by employers in Spain, Irelandand Italy. The forecast from Spanish employers is themost pessimistic since the survey began in Spain in 2003.Hiring is also expected to slow considerably in the UK withemployers reporting their weakest Outlook in 14 years.

Interestingly, hiring sentiments have improved fromthree months ago in the Manufacturing sector inAustria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Swedenand Switzerland, and the sector performance is helpingto bolster the Outlooks for these countries.

Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Czech Republic

International Comparisons – EMEA

20


Netherlands Norway50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Italy50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland

Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Romania

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Germany

Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Greece

21

South Africa Spain50

40

30

20

10

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-10

-20

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

Switzerland

UK

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Sweden50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

22


The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforces duringthe next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys ofemployment activity in the world. Various factors underpin thesuccess of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and areaof focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is themost extensive, forward-looking employment survey in theworld, asking employers to forecast employment over thenext quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus onretrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derivedall of its information from a single question.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in which itis conducted. The survey participants are not derived fromManpower’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 55,000public and private employers across 33 countries and territoriesto measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specificsectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedusing a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 33 countries and territories where the survey is currentlyconducted includes Manpower’s internal research team andInfocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representativeof each national economy. The margin of error for all national,regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted byManpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team andincludes 14,000 employers. With this number of interviews,the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the survey worldwide are askedthe same question, “How do you anticipate total employmentat your location to change in the three months to the end ofDecember 2008 as compared to the current quarter?”

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net EmploymentOutlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage ofemployers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andsubtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect tosee a decrease in employment at their location in the nextquarter. The result of this calculation is the Net EmploymentOutlook.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data forAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden,Taiwan, United Kingdom and the United States to provideadditional insight into the survey data. These adjustmentsmake it possible to review the data without the employmentfluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year,thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time.Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the datafor other countries in the future, as more historical data iscompiled. Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment in March of 2008.

About the Survey

23

History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent ofthe United States survey, naming the report the QuarterlySurvey of Employment Prospects. The survey adoptsthe same forward-looking research format as the UnitedStates survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 2nd generation of the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey launched in the United States and Canada.Research methodology is updated to evolve withadvancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of EmploymentProspects is updated to adopt an enhanced researchmethodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico andIreland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, HongKong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdomand United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch theManpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland andTaiwan launch the Manpower Employment OutlookSurvey.

2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and SouthAfrica join the survey program. Surveys in Australia,Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in thethird quarter.

2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealandadds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter.

2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech Republic,Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania join thesurvey program. China and Taiwan add seasonallyadjusted data in the second quarter. India andSwitzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.

Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in theemployment services industry; creating and delivering servicesthat enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.Celebrating its 60th anniversary in 2008, the $21 billioncompany offers employers a range of services for the entireemployment and business cycle including permanent,temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessmentand selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing andconsulting. Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,500 offices in80 countries and territories enables the company to meet theneeds of its 400,000 clients per year, including small andmedium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as theworld’s largest multinational corporations. The focus ofManpower’s work is on raising productivity through improvedquality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their totalworkforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their corebusiness activities. Manpower Inc. operates under fivebrands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, JeffersonWells and Right Management. More information on ManpowerInc. is available at www.manpower.com.

About ManpowerUnited StatesIn the United States, Manpower provides a wide range ofemployment services that allow companies to anticipateand benefit from the changes happening now and next inthe contemporary world of work. Manpower is more than itscore of temporary industrial, contact center and administrativerecruiting, assessment and selection. In addition to recruitingand screening for permanent positions, Manpower supportsclients’ cost savings through its managed service programs.Under the Manpower Professional brand, the companyplaces superior talent in areas such as information technology,scientific, engineering, finance and telecommunications. The company fulfills clients’ recruitment process outsourcingneeds through Manpower Business Solutions. Moreinformation about Manpower’s U.S. operations can be foundat www.us.manpower.com.

About Manpower Inc.

24


Manpower Inc., 100 Manpower Place, Milwaukee, WI 53212, USATel: 414 961 1000www.us.manpower.com

© 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q4, 2008

Documents

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upcoming quarter

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