Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 · Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 SUMMARY FINDINGS The findings in this report are based on labour

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

2016-2022SUMMARY FINDINGS

The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the

one-digit 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.

manitoba.ca/lmi

Page iManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022

TABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE .............................................................................................................................................................. 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................................................2

RÉSUMÉ ...............................................................................................................................................................4

CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2016 to 2022 ...........6

1.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................6

1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand ..............................................................................................................7

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand ................................................................................................................7

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation .............................................................................................................8

1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training ............................................................................. 14

1.2.4 High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector .............................................................................. 15

1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply ................................................................................................................ 18

1.3.1. Labour Force Outlook ....................................................................................................................... 18

1.3.2 Labour Force Participation ................................................................................................................ 19

1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply ................................................................................................................ 20

1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply.....................................................................................22

CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS ............................................................. 26

2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 26

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies ........................................................................ 26

2.2.1 International and National Outlook ................................................................................................ 26

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook .........................................................................................................27

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba ...........................................................27

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2016 Custom Projection .........................................................................................28

2.3 National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status ............................................................. 29

2.3.1 National Labour Market ................................................................................................................... 29

2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market .............................................................................................................. 29

2.4 Population .......................................................................................................................................... 31

CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL ............................................................................................34

3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions .....................................................................34

Page ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022

APPENDICES..................................................................................................................................................... 35

Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2015 to 2022 .............................................36

Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and Demand 2015 to 2022 ...................................... 38

Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2016 to 2022 ................................................... 44

Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC level, 2016 to 2022 .....50

CHART LIST

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand – 2016 to 2022 ......................................................................................7

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source – 2016 to 2022 .................................................................................8

Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion Demand – 2016 to 2022 .................................................................10

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level – 2016 to 2022 .................................................................. 14

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected– 2015 to 2022 ............................................... 18

Chart 6: Manitoba Estimated and Projected Labour Force Growth – 2015 to 2022 .................................. 19

Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected – 2015 to 2022 ............... 19

Chart 8: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba – 2015 to 2022 ........................................................ 21

Chart 9: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, Manitoba – 2015 to 2022 ....................................... 21

Chart 10: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected – 2015 to 2022 .................................................. 32

Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected – 2015 to 2022 ......................................... 33

Chart 12: Manitoba Age Distribution Change – 2015 to 2022 ...................................................................... 33

Page iiiManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022

TABLE LIST

Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2016 to 2022 ........................................11

Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2016 to 2022 ....................................... 12

Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2016 to 2022 .................................. 15

Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2016 to 2022 ........................................................ 16

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2015 to 2022 ..........................................................22

Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2016 to 2022 ............................................ 25

Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2015 to 2022 .............................................................28

Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2011 to 2015 .................. 31

Page 1Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022

PrefaceThe Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, with guidance from the Minister’s Advisory Council on Workforce Development (MACWD). We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results.

We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Finance.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2016 to 2022 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve our understanding of the state of Manitoba’s labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet this demand.

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2016, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba’s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2016 and 2022 provided in this report.

It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba’s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international

immigrants, interprovincial migrants and inter-occupation migrants, over the next seven years.

While the results of Manitoba’s custom projection offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions should not be drawn on small samples, occupations or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution.

Further, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities. Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba’s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible.

Page 2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• The Manitoba economy will see a total of 167,700

job openings between 2016 and 2022, with 67 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 24,000 total job openings per year.

• Manitoba’s economy will see 165,500 new workers join the labour force between 2016 and 2022, or approximately 23,600 workers a year.

• Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.8 per cent in 2016 to 5.3 per cent in 2022.

• After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.8 per cent annually from 2016 to 2022.

• Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.3 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.7 per cent annually.

Total Labour Demand

• A total of 167,700 job openings will be created between 2016 and 2022.

• Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 55,000 job openings (33 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 112,700 job openings (67 per cent of the total).

• The occupation group with the most expected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.9 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook.

• Job openings in business, finance and administration occupations are estimated at 26,300 or 15.7 per cent; and management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 per cent.

• Within the sales and service occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations.

• For all occupation groups, except health occupations, where expansion demand is greater, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period.

• With regard to educational requirements, of the 167,700 forecasted job openings over the seven-year period, approximately 62 per cent are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification). The remaining 38 per cent may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements.


Total Labour Supply

• It is forecasted that there will be an additional 165,500 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand.

• The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 93,400 new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and 34,000 net other in-mobility workers.

• With 165,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 52,800 persons over the forecast period.

Gaps in Demand versus Supply

• Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province.

• In each year from 2016 to 2022, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 3,300 workers. While the gap is more significant between 2016 and 2018 with an average of 4,800, it closes to about 2,200 over the last four years of the forecast period, with supply estimated to outpace demand by 2,000 workers in 2022.

• Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 2,200 workers. The unemployment rate is expected to be highest in 2016 and then continue to decrease over the forecast period as labour demand grows slightly faster than supply from 2017 onward. Overall, the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline from 5.8 per cent in 2016 to 5.3 per cent in 2022.

Page 4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2016 à 2022

RÉSUMÉ• L’économie manitobaine verra la création d’un

total de 167 700 possibilités d’emploi au cours de la période 2016-2022; 67 % de celles-ci viseront à pourvoir aux postes vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, il y aura environ 24 000 possibilités d’emploi créées au total par année.

• L’économie manitobaine verra 165 510 nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la population active pendant la période 2016-2022, soit environ 23 600 travailleurs par année.

• Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devrait diminuer, passant de 5,8 % en 2016 à 5,3 % en 2022.

• Après le rajustement pour l’inflation, l’économie du Manitoba devrait s’accroître environ de 1,8 % par année durant la période 2016-2022.

• Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenu horaire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,3 % par an en moyenne pendant les sept prochaines années. Cela devrait faire augmenter les revenus personnels au Manitoba de 3,7 % par an en moyenne durant la même période.

Demande totale de main-d’œuvre

• Au total, 167 700 possibilités d’emploi seront créées entre 2016 et 2022.

• Selon les prévisions, la demande d’expansion (nouveaux emplois découlant de la croissance économique) devrait créer 55 000 nouveaux emplois (33 % du total). La demande de remplacement (emplois créés en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès) devrait quant à elle créer 112 700 emplois (67 % du total).

• Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le plus de créations d’emplois est celui de la vente et des services avec 33 300 possibilités d’emploi prévues, soit 19,9 % du total des perspectives d’emploi au Manitoba.

• En Affaires, finances et administration, on estime que 26 300 emplois (15,7 %) seront créés, ainsi que 23 100 (13,8 %) dans le secteur de la gestion.

• Au sein du groupe professionnel de la vente et des services, la plus grande création d’emploi devrait avoir lieu dans les sous-groupes suivants : nettoyeurs, vendeurs de commerce de détail et serveurs et serveuses au comptoir, aides de cuisine et personnel assimilé.

• Pour la période envisagée, la demande de remplacement est plus importante que la demande d’expansion dans tous les groupes professionnels, à l’exception de ceux du secteur de la santé où la demande d’expansion prime.

• En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives au niveau de scolarité, pendant la période de sept années envisagée, parmi les 167 700 créations d’emplois prévues, environ 62 % d’entre elles devraient nécessiter un certain niveau de formation et d’études postsecondaires (p. ex. un diplôme collégial ou universitaire ou un certificat professionnel). Les 38 % restants ne nécessiteront peut-être pas d’études ou de formations postsecondaires, mais pourraient demander une formation spécifique à l’emploi ou une formation en cours d’emploi.

Page 5Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2016 à 2022

Offre totale de main-d’œuvre

• Il devrait y avoir 165 500 travailleurs additionnels au cours de la période envisagée pour contrebalancer la demande totale de main-d’œuvre.

• L’offre supplémentaire de main-d’œuvre devrait se décomposer comme suit : 93 400 personnes faisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, 38 100 personnes provenant de la migration nette et 34 000 personnes provenant de la mobilité de la main-d’œuvre nette.

• Étant donné que 165 500 nouveaux travailleurs se joindront à la population active et que 112 700 postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès, la population active du Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance de 52 800 personnes pendant la période envisagée.

Écarts entre l’offre et la demande

• Dans l’ensemble, le marché du travail du Manitoba devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période envisagée, avec une offre globale de main-d’œuvre en mesure de répondre à la demande du marché du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent de main-d’œuvre pour certaines professions et dans certaines régions de la province.

• Chaque année, entre 2016 et 2022, l’offre de main-d’œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demande, à raison de 3 300 travailleurs en moyenne. Bien que l’écart soit plus important entre 2016 et 2018, avec une différence de 4 800 travailleurs en moyenne, il devrait redescendre à environ 2 200 travailleurs à la fin des quatre dernières années de la période envisagée, et l’offre devrait dépasser la demande de 2 000 travailleurs d’ici 2022.

• Au cours de la période visée, la croissance de la demande totale de main-d’œuvre devrait dépasser la croissance de l’offre totale de main-d’œuvre de 2 200 travailleurs. Le taux de chômage devrait culminer en 2016, puis continuer à diminuer tout au long de la période envisagée vu que la demande de main-d’œuvre s’accroît légèrement plus vite que l’offre de main-d’œuvre à partir de 2017. Dans l’ensemble, le taux de chômage devrait baisser, passant de 5,8 % en 2016 à 5,3 % en 2022.


Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook Summary Findings, 2016 to 2022

1.1 IntroductionIn this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba’s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba’s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands is provided.

The model used to produce Manitoba’s custom workforce outlook starts with the use of macroeconomic models of the province’s economy to create an outlook for Manitoba’s economic performance and estimates the number and sources of workers required considering the province’s expected future economic and demographic performance. It then explores possible sources for these requirements and the number of workers needed from those sources to meet these future requirements.

The possibility of labour shortages is identified by examining the supply sources to determine if it is possible to achieve the required supply from these sources. For example, the model estimates

the number of young people leaving the education system required to meet future supply needs from this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide education and training to a sufficient number of individuals, there will be a shortage of workers.

An important difference in this approach from that adopted by other models is that the occupational projections contained in this report provide an estimated amount of immigration required to meet labour market needs, rather than setting an assumption for migration that is not directly linked to the expected future performance of the economy. Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level adjusts over time to meet labour requirements.

The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts report.

GlossaryJob openings = expected change in workforce demand over a specific time periodExpansion demand = determined by changes in economic performance that lead to changes in employment and the amount of excess workers required to meet normal turnover in the workforceReplacement demand = job openings created by people retiring from the labour force or dying, influenced by the aging of the populationNew entrants = people between 15 and 30 years old joining the workforce for the first time after completing their education

Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the labour forceNet in-migration = people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a jobNet other mobility = all other sources of labour force change, including people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force and changes in participation ratesNet in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour force


1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand

The outlook for labour demand in the economic model is determined by the expected growth of the economy, along with the impact of changing market conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour relative to that for capital will have an effect on the demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to substitute capital for workers.

The model also considers the impact of migration on

economic growth and labour market activity, as well as assumptions about trend growth in productivity that impacts the need for workers.

Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow from 674,300 in 2016 to 724,900 in 2022 – an increase of 50,600 jobs, through economic growth. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 7.5 per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of 1.1 per cent each year.

Thousands

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

640

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand2016 to 2022

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

674.3

724.9

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand

New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be strongest in 2018 and 2019, when it is forecasted to be 9,300 and 9,700 respectively.

In addition to the expansion demand of 55,000, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will result in an additional 112,700 job openings between

2016 and 2022. In three of the seven years over the forecast period, replacement demand is expected to be more than twice as high as the job openings expected due to expansion demand.

Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 167,700 job openings between 2016 and 2022.


Number

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source2016 to 2022

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Deaths Retirements Expansion Demand

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation

The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.9 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by business, finance and administration occupations at 26,300 or 15.7 per cent; and management occupations at 23,100 or 13.8 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for nearly 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with only 2,400 projected job openings over the forecast period.

Analysis of job openings by more detailed three–digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes show that within sales and service occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

• cleaners

• retail salespersons

• food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations


Similarly, within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups:

• administrative and regulatory occupations

• general office workers

• office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical

Within management occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

• retail and wholesale trade managers

• managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture

• legislators and senior management

Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups.

As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups except health occupations, where expansion demand is greater, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 67 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for 33 per cent of the 167,700 total job openings over the forecast period.

Comparing occupational groups, occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations have the highest percentage of replacement demand at 95.9 per cent, while health occupations have the lowest at 43.6 per cent. Health was the only group where expansion demand exceeded replacement demand over the forecast period.

Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2016 and 2022 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2011 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level).


Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings,Replacement and Expansion Demand - 2016 to 2022

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Sales and service occupations

Business, finance and administration occupations

Management occupations

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

Health occupations

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

Number of Workers

Expansion Demand Replacement Demand


Table 1: Job openings by One-digit NOC and Source - 2016 to 2022

Expansion Replacement Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

Natural resources, agriculture andrelated production occupations

100 2,300 2,400 95.9%

Art, culture, recreation and sport 700 2,100 2,800 73.6%

Manufacturing and utilities 1,400 5,500 6,900 79.4%

Natural and applied sciences 3,000 5,300 8,300 63.9%

Health 11,700 9,000 20,700 43.6%

Education, law and social, community and government services

9,600 11,300 20,900 54.0%

Trades, transport and equipmentoperators and related occupations

5,300 17,600 22,900 77.0%

Management 3,400 19,700 23,100 85.2%

Sales and services 12,500 20,800 33,300 62.4%

Business, finance and administration 7,200 19,100 26,300 72.7%

Total 55,000 112,700 167,700 67.2%


Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source - 2016 to 2022

Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400

Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services

1,400 5,200 6,600

Professional occupations in business and finance 800 3,000 3,800

Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations

2,600 7,100 9,700

Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations

200 1,300 1,500

Office support occupations 2,900 5,300 8,200

Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

800 2,300 3,100

Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 1,500 2,200 3,700

Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences

1,500 3,100 4,600

Professional occupations in nursing 4,100 3,500 7,600

Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 2,000 1,300 3,300

Technical occupations in health 2,200 1,800 4,000

Assisting occupations in support of health services 3,300 2,400 5,700

Professional occupations in education services 2,300 3,300 5,600

Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services

1,500 2,700 4,200

Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services

2,700 2,200 4,900

Occupations in front-line public protection services 400 500 900

Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations

2,700 2,600 5,300

Professional occupations in art and culture 300 700 1,000

Continued on next page.


Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 400 1,400 1,800

Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 500 1,800 2,300

Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 2,100 2,700 4,800

Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade

1,600 3,600 5,200

Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations

2,700 5,000 7,700

Sales support occupations 1,600 2,000 3,600

Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,100 5,700 9,800

Industrial, electrical and construction trades 2,500 6,500 9,000

Maintenance and equipment operation trades 900 4,300 5,200

Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers

500 1,100 1,600

Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations

600 4,400 5,000

Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations

800 1,300 2,100

Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production

200 600 800

Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production

-400 1,000 600

Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 300 700 1,000

Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators

400 1,300 1,700

Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers

400 1,800 2,200

Assemblers in manufacturing 200 1,500 1,700

Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 400 1000 1,400

*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training

It is projected that of the 167,700 forecasted job openings, approximately 103,500 positions (62 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, trade certification, university).

These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified as NOC 2011 skill level 0/A, or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2011 skill level B.

The remaining 38 per cent of projected job openings, or 64,200 positions, may not require post-secondary

training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, are a smaller portion.

Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for 2016 to 2022.

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level2016 to 2022

46,300,28%

51,200, 31%

52,300,31%

17,900, 11%

NOC O/A - Managerial and Professional Usually Requiring a University Education

NOC B - Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training

NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training

NOC D - Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job Training


Replacement demand is projected to be similar for skill level 0/A, B and C, while expansion demand varies. Occupations in skill level D are projected to have lower replacement and expansion demand.

The largest numbers of expansion demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level B and C at 20,400 and 20,200 respectively (refer to Table 3), while the share of expansion demand-driven jobs is highest for unskilled occupations, at 40.5 per cent.

Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2016 to 2022

NOC Skill Levels Expansion demand

Replacement demand

Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

NOC 0/A - Managerial and Professional 16,000 36,300 52,300 69.5%

NOC B - Technical and Skilled 16,600 34,600 51,200 67.6%

NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and operator

15,200 31,100 46,300 67.2%

NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 7,200 10,700 17,900 59.5%

Total 55,000 112,700 167,700 67.2%

1.2.4 High-demand occupations by Industry Sector

Manitoba’s occupational forecasting model estimates the number and sources of workers required to address the expected future economic and demographic performance of the province through the application of macroeconomic models. The projected demand for workers is also impacted by changing market conditions, for example the cost of labour relative to that for capital.

Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector with the highest number of expected job openings created over the forecast period through both changes in economic performance (expansion demand) and through normal turnover in the workforce through retirements and deaths (replacement demand).

Readers are cautioned against drawing precise conclusions based on individual occupations or industry groups. The projection results should

instead be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts.

While these projections provide an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific occupations that are not captured in the analysis, and economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time.

Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data, particularly for smaller occupation groups.


Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2016-2022

Sector OccupationNumber of

Job Openings 2016-2022

Management

Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,200

Managers in agriculture 3,500

Restaurant and food service managers 1,100

Construction managers 900

Manufacturing managers 900

Business, Finance and

Administration

Administrative assistants 3,300

General office support workers 3,000

Administrative officers 2,900

Accounting and related clerks 1,700

Financial auditors and accountants 1,500

Natural and applied

sciences and related occupations

Information systems analysts and consultants 800

Civil engineers 500

Computer programmers and interactive media developers 500

Computer network technicians 500

Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 400

Health occupations

Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 7,500

Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 4,900

Licensed practical nurses 1,100

Specialist physicians 800

Pharmacists 600

Occupations in education,

law and social, community and

government services

Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,100

Early childhood educators and assistants 2,400

Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,400

Social and community service workers 2,100

Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 1,900

Continued on next page.


Sector OccupationNumber of

Job Openings 2016-2022

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and

sport

Graphic designers and illustrators 400

Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 400

Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 200

Musicians and singers 200

Interior designers and interior decorators 200

Sales and service

occupations

Retail salespersons 4,200

Light duty cleaners 3,200

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations

2,800

Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,600

Cooks 2,100

Trades, transport and

equipment operators

and related occupations

Carpenters 2,500

Transport truck drivers 2,200

Construction trades helpers and labourers 1,700

Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers

1,200

Material handlers 1,100

Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 1,000

General farm workers 500

Underground production and development miners 300

Supervisors, mining and quarrying 200

Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services

100


1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply

1.3.1 Labour Force Outlook

The occupational forecasting model uses population estimates produced by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics combined with projected age-specific labour force participation rates produced by SECINC to project Manitoba’s labour force. The model estimates Manitoba’s labour force at 674,100 people in 2015.

Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force over the past 10 years and is projected to see continued growth throughout the seven-year projection period.

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow by 52,800 people (7.8 per cent) to 726,900 people by 2022. This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent, or an average of 7,500 persons per year.

Within the projection period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow at the lowest rate in 2016 (0.8 per cent), before increasing and stabilizing between 1.0 and 1.2 per cent over the remainder of the forecast period. This slowed growth compared to previous years reflects an increase in the proportion of population in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates.

Thousands

740

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

640

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force,Estimated and Projected - 2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

674.1

726.7


Per cent

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Chart 6: Manitoba Estimated and Projected Labour Force Growth - 2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1.8

1.0

1.3.2 Labour Force Participation

Manitoba’s overall labour force participation rate is projected to decline by 0.2 percentage points between 2016 and 2022, to 67.8 per cent.

This slight decline reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age groups with the highest participation, and the increasing proportion of elders in the labour force population.

Per cent68.4

68.3

68.2

68.1

68.0

67.9

67.8

67.7

67.6

67.5

Chart 7: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected - 2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

68.3

67.8


1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 93,400 new entrants, 38,100 net in-migrants and 34,000 net other mobility workers (for a total 165,500 workers) will be required to replace people leaving the labour force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 165,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba will increase by 52,800 persons.

The components of the projected change in Manitoba’s labour force are:

• new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force

• deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force

• net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other mobility), which can add or subtract from the labour force

Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job.

Net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (ex: after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (ex: increased desire for people to enter the labour force).

New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,300 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 16,100 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements.

Chart 8 shows a decrease in net other mobility between 2015 and 2016. This decrease can be explained by a previous drop in participation rate between 2013 and 2014, resulting in a decrease in the number of persons in the labour force by almost 5,000. In 2015, the participation rate increases back to previous levels by bringing workers back into the labour force through a significant increase in net other mobility. Chart 9 illustrates this relationship between labour force participation rates and unemployment rates.


Number of Workers

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000

Chart 8: Sources of Labour Force Change2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

New EntrantsNet In-MigrationNet Other In-Mobility Retirements & Deaths Labour Force Change

Per cent Per cent

68.4

68.2

68.0

67.8

67.6

67.4

6.0

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.2

5.0

Chart 9: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)


1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply

Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets.

Table 4 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2015 and 2022.

In all seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than labour demand. This gap between the supply of

labour and labour demand averages 3,450 workers per year. Over the last four years of the forecast period, the gap will close significantly, from an average of 4,675 between 2015 and 2018 to 2,225 for the last four years.

For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 per cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain balanced.

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Labour Force demand 669,900 674,300 682,100 691,300 701,000 709,300 717,600 724,900

Labour Force Supply 674,100 679,700 687,100 695,400 703,800 711,700 719,400 726,900

demand imbalance -4,200 -5,400 -5,000 -4,100 -2,800 -2,300 -1,800 -2,000

Labour shortages by occupation groups

Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). When considered as a percentage of the total labour force, the gaps between labour demand and supply in each year range from 0.0 per cent to 0.2 per cent for each of the groups.

For almost all occupation groups, supply exceeds demand in all years of the projection period. Only Health occupations are expected to see demand levels slightly higher than the forecasted supply over the last two years of the forecast.

It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupation groups.

The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility).

Between 2016 and 2022, net other mobility is forecasted to add 34,000 persons to Manitoba’s labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand.

If these assumptions are not met, more labour shortages could be expected.


Occupations with significant labour market tightness

MethodologyThe occupational model used to create Manitoba’s labour market occupational forecasts estimates the supply requirements needed to meet the demand for individual occupations. Accordingly, there are no significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupations in these projections and analysts should examine the estimated requirements to see if it is possible to achieve them.

To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to provide an indication of the “relative” risk or difficulty across occupations of obtaining their estimated supply requirements.

This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and originates from the fact that the supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality.

This ranking is not intended to indicate that an occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there is a higher risk relative to other occupations.

Four ranking measures are used to determine the supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, one on the demand supply balance and the other is a combined rank that is a weighted average of the other ranks.

The demand measure focuses on “demand pressure” as measured by the number of job openings for an occupation divided by the size of the occupation’s labour force in the previous year, which is similar to the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the demand growth for an occupation is high relative to that for other occupations, it will receive a higher rank as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the workers needed.

The supply measure focuses on migration and is measured as the ratio of required net in-migration

and the occupation’s labour force in the previous year. Occupations where supply requirements are largely met through migration may be at risk if these requirements are not accommodated through additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not wish or are not available to move to the province.

The third measure is the difference between an occupation’s actual and normal unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter labour markets and vice-versa.

There are three ranks numbered from one-to-three for each measure:

• Rank of 1: a situation where there are more than sufficient workers available to meet demand. Demand pressure is lower than normal, there is less reliance than normal on migrants to fill jobs, and the unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the normal rate. It should be relatively easy to find workers;

• Rank of 2: represents a normal market situation where organizations can rely on their traditional methods for obtaining workers. Demand pressure is normal, organizations may have to rely on migrants to meet supply, but this situation is not different from what they have faced in the past, and the unemployment rate gap is small; and

• Rank of 3: a type of market situation where demand pressure is quite strong, more emphasis than normal must be placed on organizations to access migrants to meet their worker requirements and the unemployment rate is below its normal rate. It will be relatively more difficult to find workers.

It should be noted that it is important to consider the size of the occupations when using the supply risk results, as occupations with small sizes can produce ranks that may be misleading.

For example, an occupation with a labour force of only 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressure


measure. This would certainly put it near the top of occupations for supply risk through the demand pressure rank.

The data provided in this report is accordingly restricted to occupations where the employment is 150.

ResultsLabour market tightness may exist temporarily in an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for example because of anticipated major projects, and may disappear after completion. In some occupations however, labour market tightness may persist over a longer period of time, potentially due to rising numbers of retirements and deaths as the population ages. In order to identify occupations where more research may be required to address potential long-term supply risks, occupations with a weighted average combined rank of three are highlighted in Table 5. For these occupations, the weighted average of the supply, demand and unemployment rate

gap measures exceeds 2.5. As noted above, only occupations with at least 150 individuals employed in 2015 have been considered for the analysis. These occupations are likely to display a higher degree of demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling job openings over the forecast period compared to other occupations.

In terms of industry sectors, health occupations display the highest degree of relative labour market tightness over the forecast period, with 52.8 per cent of occupations showing high demand pressures in at least one year, followed by natural and applied sciences and related occupations (43.5 per cent) and trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations with 20.0 per cent.

Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness rankings for each of the seven years of the forecast period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data.


Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2016 to 2022

Occupational group Occupation

Business, finance and administration

Court officers and justices of the peace

Health information management occupations

Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations

Natural and applied sciences

Geological and mineral technologists and technicians

Construction estimators

Health

Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses

Allied primary health practitioners

Medical laboratory technologists

Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

Medical radiation technologists

Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c.

Licensed practical nurses

Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates

Education, law and social, community and government services

Journalists

Sales and service

Travel counsellors

Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks

Casino occupations

Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations

Trades

Telecommunications line and cable workers

Telecommunications installation and repair workers

Carpenters

Railway carmen/women

Railway and yard locomotive engineers

Manufacturing and Utilities

Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations

Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers *n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


Chapter 2: Economic and Labour Market Outlooks

2.1 IntroductionEconomic and demographic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), domestic consumption, commodity prices, population and immigration serve as inputs for the occupational model that is used to generate custom occupational forecasts for Manitoba. This chapter provides a review of the economic and labour market outlook from internal and external forecasting sources.

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies

2.2.1 International and National Outlook

Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across countries and regions, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. This includes the slowdown and rebalancing in China; a further decline in commodity prices, especially for oil, with sizable redistributive consequences across sectors and countries; a related slowdown in investment and trade; and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies. These realignments—together with a host of noneconomic factors, including geopolitical tensions and political discord—are generating substantial uncertainty.

On the whole, they are consistent with a subdued outlook for the world economy—but risks of much weaker global growth have also risen.

The estimated growth potential of the global economy has been revised down to about 3.25 per cent on average over the projection horizon. The revision primarily reflects weaker-than-expected investment in emerging market economies, particularly those that export oil. The World Bank has also lowered its assessment of the growth rate of potential output for the US economy to about 1.75 per cent, reflecting productivity growth that has remained lower than anticipated. While US productivity growth is expected to improve gradually, the ongoing weakness suggests a softer trend than previously estimated.

The persistent sluggishness in global trade and investment in recent years may have also weighed on global productivity growth.

Total GDP growth is projected to firm over 2016, bolstered by underlying strength in labour markets and consumer confidence, low oil prices and still-accommodative monetary policy. The US labour market averaged monthly job gains of over 200,000 during the first quarter of 2016, a strong pace that has been maintained since March 2014. There are signs that the strength in employment growth is now helping draw workers back into the labour market: since September 2015, the participation rate has risen steadily, reversing some of the decline seen since the 2007–09 global financial and economic crisis.

The Canadian economy continues to undergo complex adjustments to the declines in global commodity prices and in Canada’s terms of trade. Contraction of business investment in the energy sector has been an important drag on economic activity.

The reorientation toward the non-resource sectors is being supported by the ongoing expansion in the United States, the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar and accommodative monetary and financial conditions.


The complex adjustment will have important consequences for the growth of potential output for the next several years. The Bank’s estimate for potential output growth is now materially lower than previously estimated.

According to the Bank of Canada Outlook, real GDP is estimated to have increased by 2.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 but is expected to moderate in the second quarter. Subsequently, growth is expected to strengthen as the drag from the resource sector wanes and the expansion of economic activity in the non-resource sector asserts itself as the dominant trend. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016, 2.2 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018.

The projection for economic activity through 2016 and 2017 has been revised up. Slower foreign demand growth, the higher Canadian dollar and a downward revision to business investment all have negative impacts on the outlook, but are more than offset by the positive effects of the fiscal measures announced in the federal budget in March.

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook

Economic forecasts for Manitoba and Canada were also revised down from those that prevailed earlier this year. The latest Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts shows that Manitoba’s real GDP is expected to increase by 2.2 per cent in 2016, down 0.1 per cent from the January 7, 2016 forecast, and ranking Manitoba third strongest among provinces. Canadian growth was expected to increase 1.7 per cent, down from 1.9 per cent previously. In 2017, Manitoba real GDP is projected at 2.4 per cent, above Canada’s growth at 2.2 per cent.

Employment is forecast to grow by 0.4 per cent in 2016, ranking Manitoba fourth best among the provinces. Canada’s employment is expected to increase by 0.7 per cent. In 2017, Employment is forecast to grow by 1.1 per cent, greater than Canada’s 1.0 per cent, ranking Manitoba second and tied with Ontario.

In 2016, Manitoba’s unemployment rate is forecast at 5.8 per cent, the lowest in Canada and tied with Saskatchewan. In 2017, unemployment is forecast at 5.5 per cent, ranking Manitoba first in Canada followed by Saskatchewan.

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba

According to the Conference Board of Canada, mining and construction will cool off this year, while manufacturing will advance at a stable pace. Between 2015 and 2016, Statistics Canada data indicates an increase of 3.4 per cent in overall capital spending, an increase of 7.0 per cent in non-residential construction, and a decrease of 4.5 per cent in machinery and equipment expenditures. Despite the opening of the Reed and Lalor mines in 2015, metal mining production declined last year, but is forecast to stabilize this year and advance again in 2017.

Capital investment in the extractive sector grew sharply at a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 17 per cent between 2006 and 2013 as a result of the rapid rise in commodity prices. Reflecting the recent slump in commodity prices, capital investment in the mining sector has fallen considerably.

According to Statistics Canada’s latest Capital and Repair Expenditures Survey, businesses in the mining sector expect to spend $362.3 million in capital expenditures in 2016, 65 per cent lower than the $1,030 million spent in 2014.

In the Throne Speech of May 2016, the Government of Manitoba noted its commitment to:

• advocate for focused engagement and specific funding commitments from our partners in the federal government, to ensure the proposed changes to the Air Canada Public Participation Act provide a net investment and job creation benefit for Manitoba’s aerospace industry

• continue consultations with the private sector towards improving educational opportunities and jobs for Manitobans


• continue municipal partnerships with the City of Winnipeg and municipalities from across Manitoba to provide them with a fair say on strategic infrastructure investments

• ensure long-term, assured and targeted infrastructure investments of no less than $1 billion per year while making flood protection a top priority, and work with the federal government on flood protection infrastructure, beginning with the outlet needed to alleviate flooding around Lake Manitoba.

• increase investments in the tourism industry and launch Yes! North to promote partnerships needed to attract new companies, assist entrepreneurs, and foster quality jobs and a stronger economy in northern Manitoba

• focus on the sustainable development of our natural resources, including forestry and mining, to pursue additional opportunities for balanced growth and job creation

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2016 Custom Projection

The performance of the economy, as measured by various economic and demographic indicators, is the main driver of the SECINC occupation model’s workforce outlook. Economic growth drives labour demand, while population and age distribution have influence over labour supply.

Projected growth rates from 2016 to 2022 for some of the key indicators utilized to produce Manitoba’s custom projection are shown in Table 5. Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS), Manitoba Finance, Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Hydro assisted with the verification of macro-economic data utilized by the SECINC model to produce this labour market projection.

Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators - 2015 to 2022

Per cent Change (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Real GDP ($Millions) 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0

Hourly Labour Income 3.3 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4

Real Hourly Labour Productivity -0.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9

Retail Sales 0.4 0.6 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.5

Personal Income 5.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0


2.3 National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status

2.3.1 National Labour Market

The Canadian economy initially bounced back quickly from the recession as a result of stimulus programs and a rebound in commodity prices. However, as momentum in the global economy waned, and oil prices fell in 2014 and remain low, Canadian real GDP growth slowed to 1.2 per cent in 2015, the slowest pace recorded since 2009.

As a consequence of cutbacks in oil and gas-related production and capital investment, the labour market softened, with the nationwide unemployment rate remaining elevated above 7.0 per cent. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey points to only modest recovery in hiring and wage gains going forward.

Measures of labour market health indicate continued slack. Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to be 7.1 per cent in 2016 and 7.0 per cent in 2017. Contributing conditions are: the prevalence of involuntary part-time employment, long-term unemployment and the absence of wage pressures, which all suggest that labour is being underutilized.

Although national employment continues to increase, adjustment in the labour market is ongoing. British Columbia and Ontario have shown strong net job growth. In the service sector, strong employment growth has supported solid growth in total labour input. In goods-producing industries, including in the higher-paying mining, oil and gas sector, employment has been relatively weak.

Statistics Canada’s latest Capital and Repair Expenditures Survey indicates continuing weakness in investment will dampen the economy in 2016.

Led by an anticipated 23.1 per cent decline in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector, total private capital expenditures are projected to decline 9.3 per cent this year. However, an anticipated

6.5 per cent increase in public capital expenditures is projected to moderate total investment declines to 4.4 per cent.

The U.S. employment situation continues to improveAccording to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm employment continued to expand by 2.7 million jobs in 2015, after adding 3.0 million in 2014. Over the year, service-providing industries led job growth, with the largest gains occurring in professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Among goods-producing industries, construction accounted for most of the employment gains, while mining lost jobs. The average unemployment rate in 2015 was 5.3 percent, the lowest in five years. The first quarter of 2016 showed an average unemployment rate of 4.9 per cent.

Falling energy prices hurt employment in mining and related industries. Lower energy prices combined with relatively stagnant consumer prices to help boost both real personal income and consumer expenditures on goods and services. Home sales strengthened over the year, helping to lift employment in construction and related industries.

2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market

Manitoba has the most stable labour market in Canada with modest changes in annual growth. Manitoba’s unemployment rate is generally one of the three lowest among provinces.

In addition, over the past seven years, the labour market was balanced with new jobs created at about the same rate as new workers entering the market. This balance is reflected in a stable unemployment rate within a narrow range.

In the first four months of 2016, the labour force averaged 673,100 workers. Over the same period, the unemployment rate averaged 6.1 per cent, second lowest among provinces and below the 7.2 per cent national average.


As a result of the slow growth in international and interprovincial demand for goods and services, employment has declined from an average of 636,200 jobs in 2015 to a 12-month rolling average of 634,700 jobs in April 2016, which represents a decline of 1,500 jobs. The service sector is the most impacted and has lost 2,700 workers. This includes 1,600 jobs lost in the wholesale and retail trade sector, and 1,200 jobs lost in the transportation and warehousing sector.

Low energy prices have led to 12 consecutive months of job losses in Manitoba’s mining, oil and gas sector. These losses appear to have stopped in February 2016, with modest gains in March and April. Sectors showing employment gains in 2016 include: professional, scientific and technical services, construction, utilities, information and culture.

Given the slow start in 2016, the Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts shows an expected 0.4 per cent growth in employment this year and improving to 1.1 per cent growth in 2017. The unemployment rate is expected to average 5.8 per cent in 2016 and is anticipated to fall to 5.5 per cent in 2017.

Between 2014 and 2015, Manitoba’s labour force expanded by 1.8 per cent or 12,000 persons. Over the last five years, the labour force has gained 26,700 persons, a change of 4.1 per cent.

Manitoba’s unemployment rate was 5.4 per cent in 2014 and increased to 5.6 per cent in 2015. Over the last five years, the unemployment rate has averaged 5.4 per cent, below the national average of 7.1 per cent in the same period.

In 2014, Manitoba’s employment was 626,500, and in 2015 it was 636,200. Between 2014 and 2015, employment increased by 1.5 per cent or 9,700 persons. These gains included a full-time employment increase of 8,700 persons and part-time employment gains of 1,100 persons. Over the last five years, full-time employment grew by 4.7 per cent while part-time employment increased 1.0 per cent.

Private sector job growth between 2014 and 2015 accounted for an increase of 5,000 employees compared to 4,700 in the public sector.

Manitoba’s average participation rate in 2014 increased from 67.8 per cent in 2014 to 68.3 per cent in 2015, a difference of 0.5 percentage points. Manitoba ranked third among the provinces, and above Canada’s participation rate of 65.8 per cent.

In 2015, sales and service occupations employed 24 percent of all persons working in Manitoba. The occupation group employing the second largest number of people was trade at 16 per cent, followed by business, finance and administration at 15 per cent. From 2011 to 2015, the health occupational group experienced the greatest percent change increase in employment at 11.6 per cent.

According to the Conference Board, with real GDP set to expand by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent next year, Manitoba will continue to be a reliable source of growth in Canada. Services will see healthy increases as Manitobans are on a spending spree due to strong employment and wage gains from recent years. The province’s goods-producing industries are facing a mixed performance. Mining and construction will cool off this year, while manufacturing will advance at a stable pace.

Manufacturing will drive growth in the goods-producing sector in 2016 with a 2.6 per cent expansion. Although manufacturers will keep busy in 2017, the construction sector will be pushed to the front of the pack, as work on the Keeyask Dam and the Bipole III Transmission Reliability Project gets into full swing.

After leading the country in employment growth, Manitoba’s retail sales will increase faster than every other province in 2016, as the newly employed pick up their spending on both durable and non-durable goods. Nearly 10,000 new jobs were created in Manitoba in 2015. Job creation will not fare so well this year but will roar back in 2017 and remain respectable in the medium term.


Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) - 2011 to 2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labour Force (000s) 647.4 656.6 661.5 662.1 674.1

Employment (000s) 611.7 621.6 625.8 626.5 636.2

Participation Rate (%) 68.9 68.9 68.6 67.8 68.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6

2.4 PopulationOver the past decade, Manitoba’s demographic changes have been dramatic. As of January 1, 2016, Manitoba’s total population was estimated at 1,303,896. Manitoba’s population grew by 16,209 persons (1.26 per cent) between January 2015 and January 2016.

Once again, a large portion of the province’s estimated population gain in 2015 was the result of immigration. Net international migration to Manitoba for 2015 was 13,311 individuals.

Some of the gain in the population through immigration is offset through interprovincial migration. Manitoba recorded an estimated net loss of 6,971 residents to other provinces in 2015.

Overall, Manitoba recorded a net migration gain of 10,400 people over 2015. The remaining increase of 5,800 persons was due a natural increase in population (more births than deaths).

Chart 10 shows Manitoba’s total population estimate for 2015 and annual total population projections for each year from 2015 to 2021.

According to the projections, Manitoba’s total population will increase to 1,433,900 in 2022. This represents a total gain of 119,100 people or 9.1 per cent over 2015.

Between 2016 and 2022, Manitoba’s population is projected to increase by an average of 17,000 people annually, yielding an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent. The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics estimates that the average annual growth rate over the previous six years, from 2007 to 2013, was 1.0 per cent. The natural increase is expected to add 46,700 people, while total net migration is expected to add 72,400 to the total population.


Thousands

1,450

1,400

1,350

1,300

1,250

1,200

Chart 10: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected - 2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1314.7

1433.9

It is projected that by 2022, most age groups will record increases in their population levels relative to the 2015 estimates. As illustrated by Chart 12, the 65-plus age group is expected to show the largest gain, increasing by 43,000 (22.6 per cent).

The 35 to 44 and 25 to 34 age groups are also projected to have strong gains, with increases of 14.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively. Two age groups are anticipated to record population declines over the seven-year projection period: the 45 to 54 age group is projected to decrease by 9,000 people; the 15 to 24 age group is expected to decline by 5,000 persons.


Thousands150

100

50

0

Und

er 1

0-4

5-9

10

-14

15-

19

20

-24

25-

29

30

-34

35-

39

40

-44

45-

49

50

-54

55-

59

60

-64

65-

69

70

-74

75-

79

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-84

85-

89

90

+

Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected - 2015 to 2022

2022 2015

Age group

Thousands

60

40

20

0

-20

Chart 12: Manitoba Age Distribution Change2015 to 2022

Age0 to 14

Age15 to 24

Age25 to 34

Age35 to 44

Age45 to 54

Age55 to 64

Age65 +

+27+19

+26

+12

+45

-3-6


Chapter 3: SECINC Forecasting Model3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on SECINC’s occupational forecasting model, which includes macroeconomic, industrial and occupational models. These models are produced externally by senior economists at SECINC using international best practices in economic and labour market forecasting.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates certain major projects to capture current and upcoming economic activity and the subsequent labour market needs driven by these industry initiatives. For Manitoba’s custom projection, SECINC’s model used qualitative data collection, analysis and reporting by Manitoba government departments and Manitoba sector councils for proposed industry initiatives and current economic development activities.

Key economic indicators, including GDP, investment, consumer price index, income, employment, labour productivity, capital stock and housing starts are incorporated into the model. For Manitoba’s custom projection, GDP and employment growth assumptions supplied by SECINC are aligned, where feasible, with Manitoba Finance’s averaging of key private sector economic forecasts. Manitoba’s custom projection incorporates over 1,500 variables.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates 70 individual industry clusters. Economic and industry growth drive employment demand for each unique industry. Occupational employment demand is based on expected employment in the industries with these occupations.

Occupational labour supply and its components of change are primarily driven by demographic shifts and economic performance. For Manitoba’s custom projection, labour force participation rates were forecasted based on assumptions about Manitoba’s labour force supply, including detailed demographic modelling by age and sex.

The SECINC occupational model is based on the assumption that, in the long run, the labour force for an occupation will be determined by the demand for that occupation. In the short run, there will be deviations between the growth rate in supply and demand because of mobility restrictions, such as the time required to attract workers to the occupation either from other occupations or through the education and training system. Deviations also occur when attempting to get workers to move from a different geographic area.

A further restriction placed on the adjustment of the labour force for an occupation is that employers requiring the occupation must compete with each other and with other occupations to gain a share of the economy’s overall labour force. The latter variable is produced in the macroeconomic models. The ability to compete for additional supply of an occupation is driven by the occupation’s share of overall labour requirements in the economy. For a given occupation, the higher its requirements compared to other occupations, the larger its share of the economy’s overall labour force.

For further information about the methodology, please contact the Labour Market Information Unit at [email protected] or 204-945-8836.


APPENDICES

• Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2016 to 2022

• Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and Demand 2016 to 2022

• Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2016 to 2022

• Appendix 4: Job Openings at Four-digit NOC level, Total 2016 to 2022


Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2015 to 2022

2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 2015 to2022

Per cent Change

Demographics:

Population Level 1,314,700 1,330,800 1,364,000 1,398 1,416,100 119,100 9.1%

Natural Increase (births-deaths)

5,900 6,100 6,500 6,700 6,900 1,000 16.9%

Total net In Migration 10,500 10,000 10,300 1-,600 10,800 300 1.9%

Immigration 13,500 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 -400 -3.0%

Net Interprovincial Migration

-4,800 -4,700 -4,300 -4,000 -3,800 1,000 -20.8%

The Labour Market:

Source Population 988,900 988,900 1,012,400 1,036,200 1,060,800 84,400 8.6%

Labour Force 674,100 679,700 695,400 711,700 726,900 51,900 7.7%

Employment 638,000 640,200 656,400 673,500 688,300 50,300 7.9%

Unemployment 37,300 37,300 36,700 35,700 35,700 100 0.3%

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.3 -0.3

Participation Rate (%) 68.3 68.0 68.0 68.0 67.8 -0.5

Worker Demand versus Supply:

Demand for Workers 669,900 674,300 691,300 709,300 724,900 65,100 9.9%

Supply of Workers 674,100 679,700 695,400 711,700 726,900 61,600 9.3%

Demand Imbalance -4,200 --5,400 -4,100 -2,300 -2,000

Table continued on next page.


2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 2015 to2022

Per cent Change

Source of Job Openings:

Expansion demand 10,100 4,400 9,300 8,300 7,300 -2,800

Replacement demand 15,800 16,000 16,100 16,100 162300 400 2.5%

Retirements 13,000 13,200 13,300 13,400 13,500 400 3.1%

Deaths 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,700 2,700 -100 -3.6%

Sources of Supply Change:

New Entrants 13,300 13,200 13,200 13,300 13,800 700 5.3%

Net In-mobility 14,500 8,400 11,300 10,700 9,900 -4,600 -31.7%

Net In-migration 5,400 5,200 5,400 5,600 5,700 300 5.6%

Net other mobility 9,000 3,200 5,900 5,100 4,300 -4,700 -52.2%


Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit NOC Level, Supply and Demand, 2015 to 2022

NOC 0-9: ALL occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Labour Force Demand 669,900 674,300 682,100 691,300 701,000 709,300 717,600 724,900

Labour Force Supply 674,100 679,700 687,100 695,400 703,800 711,700 719,400 726900

Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 93,400

Net In-Mobility 72,100

Total Demand Change 167,700

Expansion Demand 55,999

Replacement Demand 112,700

NOC 0: Management occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 0






NOC 1: Business, Finance and Administration occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 13,800





NOC 2: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 5,700






NOC 3: Health occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 10,200


Total demand Change 20,700



NOC 4: Occupations in Education, Law and Social, Community and Government Services

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 14,800






NOC 5: Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 2,000

Net In-Mobility 800


Expansion Demand 700


NOC 6: Sales and Service occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 23,800






NOC 7: Trades, Transport and Equipment operators and Related occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 16,500





NOC 8: Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 2,000

Net In-Mobility 0


Expansion Demand 100



NOC 9: Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022



Total 2016-2022

New Entrants 4,400






Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2016 to 2022

Three-digit NOC Codes and Titles Job openings

NOC 0: Management occupations

#062 Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,200

#082 Managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 3,600

#001 Legislators and senior management 2,400

#071 Managers in construction and facility operation and maintenance 2,100

#011 Administrative services managers 1,600

#042 Managers in education and social and community services 1,400

#012 Managers in financial and business services 1,400

#063 Managers in food service and accommodation 1,400

#091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities 1,100

#031 Managers in health care 900

#060 Corporate sales managers 800

#021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems 600

#073 Managers in transportation 400

#051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 300

#041 Managers in public administration 30-0

#065 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 200

#043 Managers in public protection services 200

#013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 100

#081 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 0

NOC 1: Business, Finance and Administration

#122 Administrative and regulatory occupations 4,900

#141 General office workers 4,700

#124 Office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical 3,600

#143 Financial, insurance and related administrative support workers 2,400

#111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 2,300

#152 Supply chain logistics, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 2,000

#131 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 1,500

#112 Human resources and business service professionals 1,400

#151 Mail and message distribution occupations 1,100

#121 Administrative services supervisors 1,000

#145 Library, correspondence and other clerks 700

#142 Office equipment operators 500

#125 Court reporters, transcriptionists, records management technicians and statistical officers 300




NOC 2: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related occupations

#217 Computer and information systems professionals 1,600

#213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers 1,100

#224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering 1,000

#228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 900

#223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering 700

#225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics and meteorology 500

#226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers 500

#227 Transportation officers and controllers 400

#222 Technical occupations in life sciences 300

#215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors 300

#214 Other engineers 300

#212 Life science professionals 300

#221 Technical occupations in physical sciences 300

#211 Physical science professionals 200

#216 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 0

NOC 3: Health occupations

#301 Professional occupations in nursing 7,600

#341 Assisting occupations in support of health services 5,700

#321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 1,900

#323 Other technical occupations in health care 1,800

#311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 1,500

#313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 800

#314 Therapy and assessment professionals 700

#322 Technical occupations in dental health care 300

#312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals 200



NOC 4: Occupations in Education, Law and Social, Community and government Services

#421 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 5,000

#403 Secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors 4,700

#441 Home care providers and educational support occupations 4,700

#415 Social and community service professionals 2,300

#416 Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers 1,700

#431 Occupations in front-line public protection services 900

#442 Legal and public protection support occupations 600

#402 College and other vocational instructors 600

#411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 300

#401 University professors and post-secondary assistants 300

NOC 5: Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

#524 Creative designers and craftspersons 700

#525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 500

#513 Creative and performing artists 500

#512 Writing, translating and related communications professionals 400

#522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

300

#521 Technical occupations in libraries, public archives, museums and art galleries 200

#511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 100

#523 Announcers and other performers, n.e.c. 100



NOC 6: Sales and Service occupations

#673 Cleaners 6,100

#642 Retail salespersons 4,200

#671 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,800

#632 Chefs and cooks 2,600

#655 Customer and information services representatives 2,500

#661 Cashiers 2,100

#651 Occupations in food and beverage service 2,000

#654 Security guards and related security service occupations 1,500

#662 Other sales support and related occupations 1,400

#634 Specialized occupations in personal and customer services 1,000

#652 Occupations in travel and accommodation 1,000

#641 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 1,000

#623 Insurance, real estate and financial sales occupations 1,000

#622 Technical sales specialists in wholesale trade and retail and wholesale buyers 800

#631 Service supervisors 700

#674 Other service support and related occupations, n.e.c. 600

#621 Retail sales supervisors 500

#633 Butchers and bakers 500

#653 Tourism and amusement services occupations 400

#656 Other occupations in personal service 300

#672 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and amusement services 300



NOC 7: Trades, Transport and Equipment operators and Related occupations

#751 Motor vehicle and transit drivers 3,900

#727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 2,600

#731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 1,800

#761 Trades helpers and labourers 1,800

#724 Electrical trades and electrical power line and telecommunications workers 1,700

#723 Machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 1,600

#732 Automotive service technicians 1,600

#745 Longshore workers and material handlers 1,100

#729 Other construction trades 1,100

#720 Contractors and supervisors, industrial, electrical and construction trades and related workers

900

#730 Contractors and supervisors, maintenance trades and heavy equipment and transport operators

900

#752 Heavy equipment operators 700

#728 Masonry and plastering trades 600

#725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 500

#744 Other installers, repairers and servicers 500

#753 Other transport equipment operators and related maintenance workers 500

#736 Train crew operating occupations 400

#762 Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. 400

#738 Printing press operators and other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 200

#733 Other mechanics and related repairers 200

#737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 100



NOC 8: Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations

#861 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 1,000

#843 Agriculture and horticulture workers 500

#823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related occupations 300

#822 Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 200

#825 Contractors and supervisors, agriculture, horticulture and related operations and services 200

#826 Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 100

#842 Logging and forestry workers 100

#824 Logging machinery operators 0

#841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling 0

#821 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0

#844 Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 0

NOC 9: Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities

#961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 1,400

#952 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers 1,100

#946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and associated products processing

900

#921 Supervisors, processing and manufacturing occupations 800

#941 Machine operators and related workers in mineral and metal products processing and manufacturing

600

#953 Other assembly and related occupations 600

#924 Utilities equipment operators and controllers 600

#947 Printing equipment operators and related occupations 200

#943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing and manufacturing

200

#922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication 200

#923 Central control and process operators in processing and manufacturing 200

#944 Machine operators and related workers in textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

100

#942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing 100


Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC level, 2016 to 2022

NOC Occupation Title

Skill

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Labour Market Tightness (Yellow = neutral; Red = tight; Grey = unavailable)

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Management Occupations

#0011 Legislators 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0012 Senior government managers and officials 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0013Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

0 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 400 400

#0014

Senior managers - health, education, social and community services and membership organizations

0 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0015Senior managers - trade, broadcasting and other services, n.e.c.

0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0016

Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0111 Financial managers 0 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 600 700

#0112 Human resources managers 0 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0113 Purchasing managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0114 Other administrative services managers 0 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#0121Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers

0 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 500 500

#0122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 0 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0124 Advertising, marketing and public relations managers 0 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#0125 Other business services managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0131 Telecommunication carriers managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0132 Postal and courier services managers 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0211 Engineering managers 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#0212 Architecture and science managers 0 100 0 100 100

#0213 Computer and information systems managers 0 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0311 Managers in health care 0 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 600 900

#0411

Government managers - health and social policy development and program administration

0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0412

Government managers - economic analysis, policy development and program administration

0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0413

Government managers - education policy development and program administration

0 0 0 0 0




Skill

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Management Occupations

#0414 Other managers in public administration 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0421Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training

0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0422

School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education

0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#0423Managers in social, community and correctional services

0 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0431 Commissioned police officers 0 0 0 0 0

#0432 Fire chiefs and senior fire-fighting officers 0 100 0 0 0

#0433 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Forces 0 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0511 Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0512

Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts

0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0513Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors

0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0601 Corporate sales managers 0 2400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 700 800

#0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 0 13,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700 3,500 4,200

#0631 Restaurant and food service managers 0 4,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 600 1,100

#0632 Accommodation service managers 0 1.000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#0651 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 0 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0711 Construction managers 0 2,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 700 900

#0712 Home building and renovation managers 0 1,300 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 200 300 500

#0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers 0 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 500 600

#0731 Managers in transportation 0 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0811Managers in natural resources production and fishing

0 100 0 0 0

#0821 Managers in agriculture 0 13,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -900 4,400 3,500

#0822 Managers in horticulture 0 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#0823 Managers in aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0

#0911 Manufacturing managers 0 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 800 900

#0912 Utilities managers 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200



Skill

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Expa

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


#1111 Financial auditors and accountants A 6,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 1,300 1,500

#1112 Financial and investment analysts A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1113Securities agents, investment dealers and brokers

A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1114 Other financial officers A 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 500 600

#1121 Human resources professionals A 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#1122Professional occupations in business management consulting

A 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#1123Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations

A 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1211Supervisors, general office and administrative support workers

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1212 Supervisors, finance and insurance office workers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#1213Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers

B 100 0 100 100

#1214Supervisors, mail and message distribution occupations

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#1215Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1221 Administrative officers B 7,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 2,300 2,900

#1222 Executive assistants B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1223 Human resources and recruitment officers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1224 Property administrators B 1,500 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 500 600

#1225 Purchasing agents and officers B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1226 Conference and event planners B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1227 Court officers and justices of the peace B 200 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1228

Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers

B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 300

#1241 Administrative assistants B 11,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 2,200 3,300

#1242 Legal administrative assistants B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#1243 Medical administrative assistants B 200 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 100 0 100

#1251Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations

B 400 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 100 100 200

#1252 Health information management occupations B 200 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 100 0 100

#1253 Records management technicians B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0




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#1254Statistical officers and related research support occupations

B 0 0 0 0

#1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers B 5,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 1,200 1,400

#1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#1313 Insurance underwriters B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#1314 Assessors, valuators and appraisers B 200 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1315 Customs, ship and other brokers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#1411 General office support workers C 9,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,900 3,000

#1414 Receptionists C 5,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700 800 1,500

#1415 Personnel clerks C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1416 Court clerks C 100 0 0 0

#1422 Data entry clerks C 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#1423Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#1431 Accounting and related clerks C 6,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 1,300 1,700

#1432 Payroll clerks C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1434 Banking, insurance and other financial clerks C 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1435 Collectors C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1451 Library assistants and clerks C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#1452Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks

C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1454 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks C 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1511 Mail, postal and related workers C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1512 Letter carriers C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1513 Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1521 Shippers and receivers C 4,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#1522 Storekeepers and partspersons C 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1523 Production logistics co-ordinators C 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1524 Purchasing and inventory control workers C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1525 Dispatchers C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#1526 Transportation route and crew schedulers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0



Skill

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#2111 Physicists and astronomers A 0 0 0 0

#2112 Chemists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2113 Geoscientists and oceanographers A 200 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2114 Meteorologists and climatologists A 0 0 0 0

#2115Other professional occupations in physical sciences

A 0 0 0 0

#2121 Biologists and related scientists A 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#2122 Forestry professionals A 0 0 0 0

#2123 Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2131 Civil engineers A 1,700 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#2132 Mechanical engineers A 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2133 Electrical and electronics engineers A 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2134 Chemical engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2143 Mining engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2144 Geological engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2145 Petroleum engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2146 Aerospace engineers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2147Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers)

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2148 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. A 100 0 0 0

#2151 Architects A 400 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#2152 Landscape architects A 100 0 0 0

#2153 Urban and land use planners A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2154 Land surveyors A 200 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2161 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2171 Information systems analysts and consultants A 3,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 400 800

#2172 Database analysts and data administrators A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2173 Software engineers and designers A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#2174Computer programmers and interactive media developers

A 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 200 500




Skill

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#2175 Web designers and developers A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#2211 Chemical technologists and technicians B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#2212Geological and mineral technologists and technicians

B 200 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 0 100 100

#2221 Biological technologists and technicians B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2222 Agricultural and fish products inspectors B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2223 Forestry technologists and technicians B 100 0 0 0

#2224 Conservation and fishery officers B 100 0 0 0

#2225 Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists B 300 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2231Civil engineering technologists and technicians

B 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2232Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 200

#2233

Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#2234 Construction estimators B 500 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 100 100 200

#2241Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians

B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 300 400

#2242Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment)

B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#2243 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics B 0 0 0 0

#2244

Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors

B 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2251 Architectural technologists and technicians B 100 0 100 100

#2252 Industrial designers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2253 Drafting technologists and technicians B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#2254 Land survey technologists and technicians B 100 0 0 0

#2255 Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2261 Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians B 100 0 0 0

#2262 Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers B 100 0 100 100

#2263

Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2264 Construction inspectors B 400 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors B 600 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200




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#2272 Air traffic controllers and related occupations B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2273 Deck officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2274 Engineer officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2275 Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators B 0 0 0 0

#2281 Computer network technicians B 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#2282 User support technicians B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#2283 Information systems testing technicians B 0 0 0 0



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Health occupations

#3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses A 17,300 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4,100 3,400 7,500

#3111 Specialist physicians A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 300 800

#3112 General practitioners and family physicians A 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 200 500

#3113 Dentists A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3114 Veterinarians A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#3121 Optometrists A 100 0 0 0

#3122 Chiropractors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 100 0 100

#3124 Allied primary health practitioners A 200 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 100 0 100

#3125Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating

A 0 0 0 0

#3131 Pharmacists A 1,400 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 400 200 600

#3132 Dietitians and nutritionists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#3141 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 0 100

#3142 Physiotherapists A 800 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 200 100 300

#3143 Occupational therapists A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 100 200

#3144Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment

A 100 0 0 0

#3211 Medical laboratory technologists B 1,000 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 200 200 400

#3212Medical laboratory technicians and pathologists' assistants

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#3213 Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#3214

Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

B 300 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3215 Medical radiation technologists B 800 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 200 100 300

#3216 Medical sonographers B 100 100 0 100

#3217

Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c.

B 200 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 100 0 100

#3219Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

B 1,400 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 400 200 600

#3221 Denturists B 100 0 0 0

#3222 Dental hygienists and dental therapists B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 100 200

#3223Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory assistants

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100




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Health occupations

#3231 Opticians B 300 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#3232 Practitioners of natural healing B 100 0 0 0

#3233 Licensed practical nurses B 2,600 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 600 500 1,100

#3234 Paramedical occupations B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 0 200

#3236 Massage therapists B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#3237 Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#3411 Dental assistants C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#3413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates C 14,100 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2,700 2,200 4,900

#3414 Other assisting occupations in support of health services C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 200 500



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#4011 University professors and lecturers A 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants A 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#4021 College and other vocational instructors A 2,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#4031 Secondary school teachers A 6,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 900 1,400

#4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers A 11,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,700 1,400 3,100

#4033 Educational counsellors A 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4111 Judges A 100 0 0 0

#4112 Lawyers and Quebec notaries A 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#4151 Psychologists A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#4152 Social workers A 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 400 900

#4153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors A 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#4154 Professional occupations in religion A 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#4155Probation and parole officers and related occupations

A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4156 Employment counsellors A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4161

Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4162Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts

A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4163Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants

A 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4164Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4165Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4166Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4167

Recreation, sports and fitness policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4168 Program officers unique to government A 500 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#4169Other professional occupations in social science, n.e.c.

A 100 0 0 0

#4211 Paralegal and related occupations B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4212 Social and community service workers B 7,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,000 2,100




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#4214 Early childhood educators and assistants B 10,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,500 900 2,400

#4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4216 Other instructors B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4217 Other religious occupations B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4311 Police officers (except commissioned) B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#4312 Firefighters B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4411 Home child care providers C 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#4412Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations

C 5,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 800 1,900

#4413 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants C 9,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,200 1,200 2,400

#4421 Sheriffs and bailiffs C 100 0 0 0

#4422 Correctional service officers C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 200 300 500

#4423Bylaw enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c.

C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



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#5111 Librarians A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5112 Conservators and curators A 100 0 0 29

#5113 Archivists A 100 0 0 0

#5121 Authors and writers A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5122 Editors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5123 Journalists A 200 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 0 100 100

#5125 Translators, terminologists and interpreters A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5131Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations

A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#5132 Conductors, composers and arrangers A 100 0 0 0

#5133 Musicians and singers A 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5134 Dancers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5135 Actors and comedians A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5211 Library and public archive technicians B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5212Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries

B 100 0 0 0

#5221 Photographers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5222 Film and video camera operators B 100 0 0 0

#5223 Graphic arts technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5224 Broadcast technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5225 Audio and video recording technicians B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5226

Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

B 100 0 0 0

#5227

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts

B 100 0 100 100

#5231 Announcers and other broadcasters B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5232 Other performers, n.e.c. B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5241 Graphic designers and illustrators B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 400




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#5242 Interior designers and interior decorators B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#5243 Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5244 Artisans and craftspersons B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5245 Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products B 0 0 0 0

#5251 Athletes B 0 0 0 0

#5252 Coaches B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5253 Sports officials and referees B 100 0 0 0

#5254Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness

B 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400



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#6211 Retail sales supervisors B 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade B 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#6222 Retail and wholesale buyers B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6231 Insurance agents and brokers B 2,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#6232 Real estate agents and salespersons B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#6235 Financial sales representatives B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 500 600

#6311 Food service supervisors B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#6312 Executive housekeepers B 100 0 100 100

#6313Accommodation, travel, tourism and related services supervisors

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6314 Customer and information services supervisors B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6315 Cleaning supervisors B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6316 Other services supervisors B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6321 Chefs B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#6322 Cooks B 8,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,000 2,100

#6331Butchers, meat cutters and fishmongers - retail and wholesale

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6332 Bakers B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#6341 Hairstylists and barbers B 3,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 500 800

#6342 Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6343 Shoe repairers and shoemakers B 0 0 0 0

#6344Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occupations

B 100 0 0 0

#6345 Upholsterers B 100 0 0 0

#6346 Funeral directors and embalmers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6411Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)

C 4,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 800 1,000

#6421 Retail salespersons C 22,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,400 2,800 4,200

#6511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#6512 Bartenders C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#6513 Food and beverage servers C 8,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 900 700 1,600




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#6521 Travel counsellors C 600 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 200 200

#6522 Pursers and flight attendants C 300 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#6523 Airline ticket and service agents C 500 3 3 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#6524

Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks

C 200 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6525 Hotel front desk clerks C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#6531 Tour and travel guides C 0 0 0 0

#6532 Outdoor sport and recreational guides C 100 0 0 0

#6533 Casino occupations C 700 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 100 200 300

#6541 Security guards and related security service occupations C 4,200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 500 1,000 1,500

#6551Customer services representatives - financial institutions

C 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 800 1,000

#6552Other customer and information services representatives

C 7,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 1,100 1,500

#6561 Image, social and other personal consultants C 0 0 0 0

#6562 Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6563 Pet groomers and animal care workers C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6564 Other personal service occupations C 0 0 0 0

#6611 Cashiers D 10,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,000 1,100 2,100

#6621 Service station attendants D 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6622 Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers D 5,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 500 900

#6623 Other sales related occupations D 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#6711Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations

D 13,700 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1,800 1,000 2,800

#6721Support occupations in accommodation, travel and facilities set-up services

D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6722Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport

D 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6731 Light duty cleaners D 8,900 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1,000 2,200 3,200

#6732 Specialized cleaners D 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents D 8,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 800 1,800 2,600

#6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations D 1,100 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 200 200 400

#6742 Other service support occupations, n.e.c. D 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200



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#7201

Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7202

Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7203Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades

B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7204Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7205

Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers

B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#7231 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7232 Tool and die makers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7233 Sheet metal workers B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7234 Boilermakers B 0 0 0 0

#7235Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters

B 100 0 0 0

#7236 Ironworkers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7237 Welders and related machine operators B 5,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 700 900

#7241Electricians (except industrial and power system)

B 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#7242 Industrial electricians B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7243 Power system electricians B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 0 100

#7244 Electrical power line and cable workers B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 0 100

#7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers B 400 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 0 200 200

#7246Telecommunications installation and repair workers

B 700 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 200 200

#7247 Cable television service and maintenance technicians B 100 0 0 0

#7251 Plumbers B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7252 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7253 Gas fitters B 100 0 0 0

#7271 Carpenters B 7,300 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1,000 1,500 2,500

#7272 Cabinetmakers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7281 Bricklayers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100




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#7282 Concrete finishers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7283 Tilesetters B 100 0 0 0

#7284 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7291 Roofers and shinglers B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7292 Glaziers B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7293 Insulators B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7294 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#7295 Floor covering installers B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7301Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7302Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews

B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 400 400

#7303 Supervisors, printing and related occupations B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7304 Supervisors, railway transport operations B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7305Supervisors, motor transport and other ground transit operators

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics B 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics B 2,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#7313 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7314 Railway carmen/women B 300 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7315 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors B 1,200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7316 Machine fitters B 200 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7318 Elevator constructors and mechanics B 100 0 0 0

#7321

Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers

B 6,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 1,100 1,200

#7322 Motor vehicle body repairers B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics B 0 0 0 0

#7332 Appliance servicers and repairers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7333 Electrical mechanics B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7334Motorcycle, all-terrain vehicle and other related mechanics

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7335 Other small engine and small equipment repairers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7361 Railway and yard locomotive engineers B 300 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 100 200




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#7362 Railway conductors and brakemen/women B 600 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7371 Crane operators B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7372Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction

B 100 0 0 0

#7373 Water well drillers B 100 0 0 0

#7381 Printing press operators B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7384 Other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7441 Residential and commercial installers and servicers C 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7442 Waterworks and gas maintenance workers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 100 100

#7444 Pest controllers and fumigators C 100 0 0 0

#7445 Other repairers and servicers C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7451 Longshore workers C 0 0 0 0

#7452 Material handlers C 5,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 800 1,100

#7511 Transport truck drivers C 16,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -300 2,500 2,200

#7512Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators

C 2,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 400 700

#7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#7514 Delivery and courier service drivers C 3,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) C 3,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 500 500

#7522Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers

C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7531 Railway yard and track maintenance workers C 700 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7532 Water transport deck and engine room crew C 0 0 0 0

#7533Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#7534 Air transport ramp attendants C 400 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#7535Other automotive mechanical installers and servicers

C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers D 7,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700 1,000 1,700

#7612 Other trades helpers and labourers D 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7621 Public works and maintenance labourers D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7622 Railway and motor transport labourers D 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



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Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

#8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8221 Supervisors, mining and quarrying B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#8222Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services

B 100 0 0 0

#8231 Underground production and development miners B 1,000 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#8232Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8241 Logging machinery operators B 100 0 0 0

#8252

Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8255

Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#8261 Fishing masters and officers B 0 0 0 0

#8262 Fishermen/women B 600 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#8411 Underground mine service and support workers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8412Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators

C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -0 0 0

#8421 Chain saw and skidder operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8422 Silviculture and forestry workers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8431 General farm workers C 5,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -400 800 500

#8432 Nursery and greenhouse workers C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#8441 Fishing vessel deckhands C 0 0 0 0

#8442 Trappers and hunters C 0 0 0 0

#8611 Harvesting labourers D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8612 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers D 3,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 600 1,000

#8613 Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers D 0 0 0 0

#8614 Mine labourers D 200 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8615Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers

D 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8616 Logging and forestry labourers D 100 0 0 0



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#9211 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9212Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#9213Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9214Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9215 Supervisors, forest products processing B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9217

Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

B 0 0 0 0

#9221 Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling B 100 0 0 0

#9222 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing B 0 0 0 0

#9223 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing B 0 0 0 0

#9224 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9226Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing

B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9227Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9231Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing

B 200 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9232 Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9235 Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators B 0 0 0 0

#9241 Power engineers and power systems operators B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#9243 Water and waste treatment plant operators B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 100 0 100

#9411 Machine operators, mineral and metal processing C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9412 Foundry workers C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9413Glass forming and finishing machine operators and glass cutters

C 100 0 0 0

#9414 Concrete, clay and stone forming operators C 100 0 0 0

#9415Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing

C 100 0 0 0

#9416 Metalworking and forging machine operators C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#9417 Machining tool operators C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9418 Other metal products machine operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9421 Chemical plant machine operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0




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#9422 Plastics processing machine operators C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9423Rubber processing machine operators and related workers

C 100 0 0 0

#9431 Sawmill machine operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9432 Pulp mill machine operators C 0 0 0 0

#9433 Papermaking and finishing machine operators C 0 0 0 0

#9434 Other wood processing machine operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9435 Paper converting machine operators C 400 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#9436Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders

C 0 0 0 0

#9437 Woodworking machine operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9441

Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers

C 0 0 0 0

#9442 Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations C 0 0 0 0

#9445 Fabric, fur and leather cutters C 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9446 Industrial sewing machine operators C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9447Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing

C 0 0 0 0

#9461

Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9462

Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers

C 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#9463 Fish and seafood plant workers C 0 0 0 0

#9465Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9471 Plateless printing equipment operators C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9472 Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations C 200 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9473 Binding and finishing machine operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9474 Photographic and film processors C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9521 Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors C 500 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 200 200

#9522 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers C 900 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 300 300

#9523Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers

C 600 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 0 200 200




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#9524

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9525

Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers

C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9526 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9527Machine operators and inspectors, electrical apparatus manufacturing

C 100 0 0 0

#9531 Boat assemblers and inspectors C 0 0 0 0

#9532 Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9533 Other wood products assemblers and inspectors C 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#9534 Furniture finishers and refinishers C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9535Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9536Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators

C 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9537 Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors C 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9611 Labourers in mineral and metal processing D 300 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9612 Labourers in metal fabrication D 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9613Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities

D 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing D 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#9615Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing

D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9616 Labourers in textile processing D 0 0 0 0

#9617Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing

D 3,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#9618 Labourers in fish and seafood processing D 0 0 0 0

#9619Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

D 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#9619Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

D 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400


Key Data SourcesA variety of qualitative and quantitative data and information sources were used, including:

• Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC)

• International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Manitoba Bureau of Statistics

• Manitoba Finance - Budget 2014

• Statistics Canada

• National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011

For more information:

Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and TradeLabour Market Information Unit Phone: 204-945-8836Fax: 204-945-1354E-mail: [email protected]

manitoba.ca/lmi

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016 to 2022

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 · Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2016-2022 SUMMARY FINDINGS The findings in this report are based on labour

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