1 Chapter 7: “Manifestly Failing” and “Unwilling or Unable” as Intervention Formulas: A Critical Assessment Dr Ingvild Bode, University of Kent In Aiden Warren and Damian Grenfell (eds) Rethinking Intervention: Security and the Limits of Humanitarian Intervention (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press), forthcoming 2017. Introduction After 2001, states have increasingly invoked the “unwilling or unable” formula when justifying military intervention against non-state/terrorist targets. Moreover, the closely related term “manifestly failing” has served as a key determinant triggering the international community’s responsibility for protecting vulnerable populations following the third pillar of the responsibility to protect (R2P). Since 2014, the “unwilling or unable” formula has also served to justify US-led air strikes against the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Syria. Given the formula’s apparent rising prominence, this chapter will critically assess the legal foundations and policy practice of the “unwilling or unable” formula and evaluate what this means for the evolution of intervention standards. The inclusion of R2P in the United Nations World Summit Outcome of 2005 marked a decisive shift in the evolution of interventions for humanitarian purposes. A key trigger of shifting R2P to the level of the international community and thereby moving towards intervention is determining that “national authorities manifestly fail to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity” (General Assembly 2005, para. 139 emphasis added). The phrase “manifest failure” corresponds to the “unwilling or unable” formula previously used in this context by the R2P- defining Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS) (Independent
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Chapter 7: “Manifestly Failing” and “Unwilling or Unable” as Intervention Formulas: A Critical Assessment Dr Ingvild Bode, University of Kent In Aiden Warren and Damian Grenfell (eds) Rethinking Intervention: Security and the Limits of Humanitarian Intervention (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press), forthcoming 2017.
Introduction
After 2001, states have increasingly invoked the “unwilling or unable” formula when
justifying military intervention against non-state/terrorist targets. Moreover, the closely
related term “manifestly failing” has served as a key determinant triggering the international
community’s responsibility for protecting vulnerable populations following the third pillar of
the responsibility to protect (R2P). Since 2014, the “unwilling or unable” formula has also
served to justify US-led air strikes against the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham
(ISIS) in Syria. Given the formula’s apparent rising prominence, this chapter will critically
assess the legal foundations and policy practice of the “unwilling or unable” formula and
evaluate what this means for the evolution of intervention standards.
The inclusion of R2P in the United Nations World Summit Outcome of 2005 marked
a decisive shift in the evolution of interventions for humanitarian purposes. A key trigger of
shifting R2P to the level of the international community and thereby moving towards
intervention is determining that “national authorities manifestly fail to protect their
populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity”
corresponds to the “unwilling or unable” formula previously used in this context by the R2P-
defining Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS) (Independent
2
Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty 2001, xi).1 Apart from this connection,
the “unable or unwilling” formula has also been used to justify military intervention in a
counterterrorism context. In September 2014, a US-led international coalition has therefore
commenced airstrikes on Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) targets in Syria because
“… the government of the State where the threat is located is unwilling or unable to prevent
the use of its territory for such attacks” (Security Council 2014d, emphasis added). This is the
latest prominent example of a state using the “unwilling or unable” formula as a legal
justification for military intervention serving the purpose of self-defense against terrorist/non-
state actors on the sovereign territory of “host” states. Because this marks a departure from
the three conventional legal theories regulating the use-of-force in self-defense against
terrorist actors in “host” states—proof of established links of support or state sponsorship of
terrorist actors (the attribution standard), explicit state consent or a Security Council
authorization - this practice may indicate a shift in how interventions are justified.2
The rising prominence and, arguably, relevance of the “unwilling or unable” formula
warrants a more thorough examination of its legal foundations and policy practice. Adding to
existing literature which considers either the counter-terrorism (Deeks 2012; G. D. Williams
2012; Reinold 2011; Scharf 2013, 183–210; Ahmed 2013) or the R2P context only
(Gallagher 2014a; Gallagher 2014b; Ramos 2013; Rosenberg and Strauss 2012), this chapter
offers a critical examination of its usage across both contexts. I will proceed in three steps:
first, I discuss how the “unwilling or unable” formula relates to the fulfilment of both internal 1 Interestingly, the ICISS report also refers to the “unwilling or unable” formula in the context of the counter-terrorist use of
force (Independent Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty 2001, 12).
2 Further, article 17 of the Rome Statute on the International Criminal Court (ICC) authorises the ICC to conduct
investigations falling under its jurisdiction if a state has been unwilling or unable to prosecute itself (International Criminal
Court 2002, 12–3). Article 17(2) and (3) outline criteria for the Court to conduct such an examination, which makes this case
distinct from the “unwilling or unable” formula in both contexts discussed in this chapter. Not only has an independent third
party, the ICC, been charged with conducting the examination, but comparatively clear criteria have also been formulated.
3
and external responsibilities (increasingly) tied to state sovereignty. Second, I examine and
compare the development of the formula in relation to first, R2P and second, counter-
terrorism. This will entail accounting for its legal bases, state and policy practice, opinio
juris, as well as inherent problems of the formulas. These parts also consider the application
of the formulas across two situations: the international intervention in Libya (R2P) and the
ongoing interventions against ISIS targets in Syria. This latter case will be discussed in a
more detailed, exploratory case study. I conclude with a summary of what these
developments might indicate in terms of evolving intervention standards.
Sovereignty and Internal/External Responsibilities
The character of the state as the legitimate sovereign authority constitutes (disputably) the
very cornerstone of international law and international order. State sovereignty has both
internal and external aspects: internally, it refers to the principal authority over its own affairs
within a particular territory and externally, that authority is acknowledged by others as
expressed by the UN Charter’s principle of non-intervention (Biersteker and Weber 1996, 2).
As the International Court of Justice has found, the state “is subject to no other state, and has
full and exclusive powers within its jurisdiction” (quoted in Hoffman 1966, 164).
Despite its supposed pride of place, sovereignty has often been recognized as a
(convenient) fiction across both aspects.3 Internally, there are many examples of states who
either do not exert effective control over their territorial space or are unable to fulfil
international commitments. Externally, breaches of the non-intervention principle have been
a repeated and deliberate characterstic of international relations (Krasner 1999), not least
3 Today’s sovereign states have long lost the “full” control and authority over what happens inside their borders, in particular
in the contexts of (economic) globalisation, the growing recognition of “transsovereign” problems and processes of regional
integration, such as in the European Union (e.g. Sassen 1996; Strange 1996; Cusimano 2000).
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because that principle has stood in dichotomous contrast with UN Charter commitments to
human rights.
Since the 1990s, these challenges have given rise to understanding “sovereignty as
responsibility” (Deng et al. 1996), tied to specific responsibilities both vis-à-vis its own
population and the international community. It is disputed whether this responsibility-based
understanding is part of a longer tradition dating back to the 17th century or the latest in a
series of changes constituting sovereignty as a social product (Barkin and Cronin 1994;
Glanville 2014). Notwithstanding its genealogy, the responsibility dimension has a distinct
effect on how sovereignty, and therefore the nature of states themselves, is understood.
Internally, sovereignty as responsibility requires states to provide at least a minimum amount
of goods and services, in particular security, and to ensure the protection and wellbeing of
their citizens. As articulated by the UN General Assembly, should states fail on this account:
… we [the international community] are prepared to take collective action, in a timely and decisive manner, through the Security Council, in accordance with the Charter, including Chapter VII, on a case-by-case basis and in cooperation with relevant regional organizations as appropriate, should peaceful means be inadequate and national authorities are manifestly failing to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity (General Assembly 2005, para. 139). In other words, if a state “manifestly fails,” it becomes the international community’s
— ultimately the Security Council’s — responsibility to react and protect its citizens as
agreed upon unanimously by the UN membership in 2005. The Security Council is therefore
set up as the principal organ to determine whether a state has failed in fulfilling its
responsibilities and may even authorize the use of force to protect the state’s population.
Externally, sovereignty as responsibility requires states to adhere to the international
community’s basic standards and fundamental principles. After 9/11, fulfilling international
counter-terrorism obligations, as for example outlined in Security Council Resolution (SCR)
1373, has become a key responsibility. In contrast to the provisions on R2P, these obligations
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neither designate who has the clear authority to determine their fulfilment or failure, nor what
should be done if their failure has been ascertained. There is likewise no clear path towards
authorizing the use of force in the case of failure.
Despite these differences, both scenarios share a similar formula that helps in
deciding whether state responsibility has been fulfilled: the “unwilling or unable” test, which
the chapter turns towards examining in more detail now. Although the “unwilling or unable”
terminology has only appeared comparatively recently on the international plain, it has
already been used in a variety of contexts, as will be shown in the following sections.
“Unwilling or Unable,” “Manifestly Failing” and the Responsibility to Protect
The “unwilling or unable” formula made several prominent appearances in the ICISS’ report
entitled The Responsibility to Protect. In particular, it was used as a “test” to judge state
behaviour in pillar three, in cases where the international community takes collective action
to protect vulnerable populations. However, when the inclusion of R2P was discussed at the
World Summit in 2005, the resolution’s drafters decided on a last-minute change. Instead of
using the term “unwilling or unable,” they chose to qualify state behaviour as having
“manifestly failed” in order to trigger the international community’s response. Some sources
suggest that the latter may have been introduced to make the respective paragraph more
acceptable to the wider UN membership, as the former “was perceived to have a more
Despite this attempt to reduce subjectivity, determining whether a state is “manifestly
failing” to protect its population from the four major crimes (genocide, war crimes, crimes
against humanity, ethnic cleansing) falling within the scope of R2P remains linked to
uncertain criteria. It may therefore still be criticized precisely for the subjective judgment it
invariably relies on. While the Security Council is clearly designated as the authority
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evaluating manifest failure, how precisely this evaluation happens and which criteria it
applies remain unspecified. Indeed, more than 10 years after the World Summit, the
application of manifest failure in the context of R2P is characterized by unresolved issues,
ambiguities and inconsistencies (Gallagher 2014b, 433–4; Rosenberg and Strauss 2012).
Security Council practice in the years since 2005 has been inconsistent in applying R2P: the
international community has not taken responsibility for local populations even after state
authorities have demonstrably and manifestly failed to protect their populations. In this
regard, for every case of successful R2P application, such as in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire,
there have been at least as many cases of inaction, such as in Darfur and Syria.
Inconsistencies are also related to R2P discourse: major countries continue to use the
“unwilling or unable” formula in the R2P context and some key R2P scholars either use
“manifest failing” and “unwilling or unable” interchangeably or merge both terms.4 ICISS
co-chair Ramesh Thakur noted that the two formulas are really only “different wording to say
the same thing” (Thakur 2015). Both the US’ and the UK’s official endorsements of R2P
therefore refer to “unwilling or unable” rather than manifestly failing, as stated in the US
National Security Strategy of 2010:
The United States and all member states of the UN have endorsed the concept
of the ‘Responsibility to Protect.’ In so doing, we have recognized that the
primary responsibility for preventing genocide and mass atrocity rests with
sovereign governments, but that this responsibility passes to the broader
international community when sovereign governments themselves commit
genocide or mass atrocities, or when they prove unable or unwilling to take
4 Thomas Weiss, for example, speaks about the responsibility of the international community in situations “[w]hen a state is
unable or manifestly unwilling to protect the rights of its population” (Weiss 2011a, 9).
7
necessary action to prevent or respond to such crimes inside their borders.
(Obama 2010, 48 emphasis added).
In order to ascertain how the Security Council has determined a state to be
“manifestly failing” in practice, the chapter briefly considers its response to the Libyan crisis
in 2011 as the, arguably, most prominent example of R2P application.
The Libya Intervention and the Criteria of “Manifestly Failing”
In the spring of 2011, the Libyan government began to use force against its population
following popular protests against the Qaddafi rule. This situation escalated quickly as the
government lost control over many eastern cities and territories and ordered air and ground
strikes. These actions were met with condemnation by the international community, who set
up a sanctions regime against members of the Qaddafi family and an arms embargo through
SCR 1970 on 26 February (Security Council 2011b). The same resolution also referred the
situation in Libya unanimously to the International Criminal Court. Undeterred,
governmental troops continued to advance on opposition-held areas in eastern Libya. In
March 2011, Qaddafi moreover made a series of hate speeches in the course of which he
announced his intent of committing atrocities on civilians in Benghazi (Karam and Heneghan
2011; P. D. Williams and Bellamy 2012, 288). In response, the Security Council adopted
SCR 1973 declaring a no-fly zone across Libyan territory and authorizing member states “to
take all necessary measures … to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of
attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya” (Security Council 2011d). When the non-negotiable
demands on the Qaddafi government to end the violence against Libyan civilians were not
met, NATO Operation Unified Protector, acting with regional support, began conducting
airstrikes against military targets and infrastructure.
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Based on this brief summary of events leading up to the R2P-based intervention, the
Security Council clearly had determined the Libyan government’s “manifest failure” to
protect its own population. But how? It is sometimes (critically) noted that only three weeks
passed between the first Council resolution 1970 and SCR 1973 authorizing the use of
military force (O’Connell 2011, 16). However, determining Libya’s manifest failure had
already started in the context of SCR 1970: the resolution “recall[s] the Libyan authorities’
responsibility to protect its population” and in “considering that the widespread and
systematic attacks … against the civilian population may amount to crimes against humanity”
prompted the applicability of R2P (Security Council 2011b, 1–2; Popovski 2011). This
determination is not only clear from the text of SCR 1970 but also from its included referral
to the ICC, whose jurisdiction only applies to the four atrocities also falling within the scope
of R2P.
This type of reasoning can also be underlined by considering the Council meeting
records in the lead-up to SCR 1970. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon as well as a range
of member states kept alluding to the “manifest failure” of Libya and what this means for the
responsibility of the international community (Security Council 2011a, 364916491; Security
Council 2011c, 4–5). The strongest of these statements came from the Permanent
Representative of Libya to the UN himself, who addressed the Council and then resigned
from his position, closing his speech with an emotive “Please, United Nations, save Libya.
No to bloodshed. No to the killing of innocents” (Security Council 2011a, 5).
In the time that passed between SCR 1970 and SCR 1973, Libya not only failed to
abide by the earlier resolution but violence against civilians also escalated. Qaddafi even
broadcast his intention and willingness to manifestly fail in fulfilling his government’s
responsibilities. In the Council deliberations that preceded the vote on SCR 1973, members
therefore seemed to confirm what SCR 1970 had assumed, namely that Qaddafi was
9
committing atrocities on Libyan civilians. Determining manifest failure therefore seems to
have followed a dual approach, but was mostly already judged at the time of SCR 1970.
Although it is demonstrably clear that Libya had manifestly failed to protect its own
population, the above discussion of events also shows that the international community’s
determination of “manifest failure” did not seem to follow a set of established criteria. Given
the situation’s clarity, especially as atrocity intentions were frankly expressed by the Libyan
president, this has not been very problematic in the Libyan case; often cited as a success for
R2P (e.g. Bellamy 2011; Weiss 2011b; Popovski 2011; Welsh 2011). Still, a tighter set of
criteria would be needed in order to make Security Council decision-making on R2P
scenarios transparent, consistent and clear. Gallagher has attempted to ascertain what
“manifestly failing” means in practice by coming up with five criteria: (1) government
intentions, (2) weapons of choice, (3) death toll, (4) number of people displaced, and (5) the
international targeting of civilians, especially women, children and the elderly (2014a, 6–12).
Lists such as these are clearly a step forward in clarifying assessments on “manifestly failing”
and therefore also increasing the accountability of decision-makers. They however remain,
for the time being and as I will also show in relation to counter-terrorist determinations of
“unwilling or unable,” purely aspirational.
“Unwilling or Unable” States in the Context of Counter-terrorism
The international community has recognized terrorist attacks as a key threat to international
peace and security since the 1970s. However, it was only after the 9/11 attacks that its
response to terrorism took on a new sense of urgency, which led to substantive changes in
(customary) international law. In an international order defined by a society of states, the
non-state nature of terrorists creates substantial challenges as to how “victim” states should
be able to respond to terrorist attacks in self-defense, in particular because these are
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invariably planned and staged on the territory of “host” states. When considering military
intervention in these scenarios, there are three legal theories to account for: the attribution
standard, consent of the “host” state, and an authorization of the Security Council.
Starting with the attribution standard, Alexandrov stated in the mid-1990s that
“[a]ccording to the [International Law] Commission, an armed intervention into a state in
order to attack terrorists cannot be regarded as self-defense when the State itself has not been
guilty of an armed attack and has not directed or controlled the terrorists in question”
(Alexandrov 1996, 183). As indicated by SCR 1373 and 1378 related to Afghanistan
(Security Council 2001a; Security Council 2001b), customary law and state practice have
changed decisively after the 9/11 attacks. Although the Taliban were not in direct control of
Al Qaeda, they had allowed its presence and had not cooperated with the international
community when it had demanded Al Qaeda’s removal (Security Council 1999). This
highlights that the attribution standard now appears to be broader in scope, although it still
requires the establishment of some sort of link, be it tolerance of or tacit support for terrorist
actors by state authorities, in order to justify military intervention. Second, interventions by
external actors on “host” state territory can also be legal if the “host” state of terrorist actors
consents (International Court of Justice 2005; Visser 2015). This argument has a
straightforward connection to sovereignty understandings giving national authorities the
authority over decisions within its territory. Third, the Security Council may determine that a
situation constitutes a threat to international peace and security, allowing it to authorize
interventions and the use-of-force across various contexts. In this case, a clear Security
Council resolution either “deciding” or “authorizing” the intervention under Chapter VII of
the UN Charter, or in Security Council terms, the use of “all necessary measures,” would be
needed to clearly determine an intervention’s legality (Akande and Milanovic 2015).
Additionally, any use-of-force in the form of military interventions, also against non-state
11
actors, has to be necessary and proportionate. Therefore, it should be used as a last resort
once reasonable non-peaceful means have been exhausted (necessary), be commensurate with
the attack and limited to the amount needed to prevent further attacks (proportionate).
The “unable and unwilling” formula enters considerations both in relation to the
attribution standard, but in particular with regard to the necessity criterion. In brief, the
formula refers to the “right of a victim state to engage in extra-territorial self-defense when
the host is either unwilling or unable to take measures to mitigate the threat posed by
domestic non-state actors” (G. D. Williams 2012, 625). Potential legal sources of the test can
be found in international law both prior to and post-9/11, especially in documents related to
the various obligations of states not to assist or condone terrorists. Key examples are SCR
1373 of 2001, the International Court of Justice’s Corfu Channel case of 1949, and the 1970
Friendly Relations Declaration noting that:
Every State has the duty to refrain from organizing, instigating, assisting or
participating in acts of civil strife or terrorist acts in another State or
acquiescing in organized activities within its territory directed towards the
commission of such acts, when the acts referred to in the present paragraph
involve a threat or use of force (General Assembly 1970).
However, none of these explicitly link the permissibility of using force to a non-
compliant state — and only SCR 1373 represents a legally binding commitment under
Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
More scholars have therefore argued for a connection between the “unwilling and
unable” test and the necessity criterion of self-defense (G. D. Williams 2012, 630–1; Deeks
2012, 495; Dinstein 2001, 275). Judging a host state to be “unwilling or unable” to take
measures against terrorist actors therefore becomes part of determining whether the
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extraterritorial use of force is necessary. As Williams summarises, “… if the host is willing
and able, then the use of force will be illegal and unnecessary” (2012, 630). Although this
appears to be a reasonable connection, it encounters difficulties because neither the criteria of
the “unwilling or unable” assessment nor who is entitled to make it are clearly defined.
Having also identified this “substantive indeterminacy,” Deeks examines past
“victim” state practice and opinio juris in the pre- and post-Charter era, deriving a set of six
substantive and procedural factors for the test, such as prioritization of consent and
cooperation and request to address the threat and time to respond (2012, 503, 516). Despite
Deeks offering the first substantial and practical-oriented analysis of criteria that
could/should inform the “unwilling or unable” test, it remains purely aspirational and,
moreover, restricted to the opinio juris of intervening states. While she acknowledges this
bias, her methodological choice therefore does not allow for a comprehensive picture of
customary international law, with the lacking host state opinio juris representing a key
impediment. Moreover, Deeks fails to designate a clear authority to verify the intervening
state’s “unwilling or unable” judgment — something that, following the current set-up of the
international system, should fall within the Security Council’s authority (Ahmed 2013, 21–6).
Practical Impediments of the “Unwilling or Unable” Formula
There are at least two further practical impediments to the “unwilling or unable” test as a
justification for military interventions: first, although unwillingness and inability appear to be
used interchangeably so as to generally imply a state’s ineffectiveness in meeting its
obligations, there are valid differences between the terms (Ahmed 2013, 8–9). Comparing
their meanings, the Oxford English Dictionary defines unable as “not having ability or power,
to do or perform … something specified” and unwilling as “not intending, purposing, or
desiring (to do a particular thing); … averse, reluctant” (2015a; 2015b). “Unable” therefore
13
appears to be the more objective criterion, while “unwilling” requires an accurate value
judgment about another state’s intentions, something that has long been a problem for
international policymakers and scholars alike (for a summary see Holmes 2013, 831–3).
Additionally, the two terms imply different levels of responsibility relating to state inaction.
That is, while a state’s inability to fulfil its obligations may be due to inadequate resources or
capacities and therefore may present a legitimate reason for inaction, unwillingness presumes
a purposeful decision to refrain from fulfilling these obligations either by choice or perhaps
by economic necessity as it prioritises other policy areas.
Seen in this light, it becomes apparent why some studies have therefore identified
“unwillingness” as the central determinant of the “unwilling or unable” formula: “A state that
is willing but unable to deal with domestic non-state actors will inevitably provide its consent
for the victim state to use force in its territory” (G. D. Williams 2012, 627). Providing this
consent puts the intervening state’s use-of-force on safe legal grounds. However, when
considering prominent applications of the “unwilling or unable” test, such as US targeted
killing operations against terrorist targets in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia, things are not as
easy as they seem (Warren and Bode 2014, 122-3). Yemen is often cited as an example of
open consent based on President Hadi’s official statements to this point (Al-Shamahi 2013).
However, not only has the Yemeni parliament issued diverging statements, but drone strikes
have also continued after Hadi’s forced resignation in January 2015 amid unclear sovereign
control, highlighting the tenuous nature of consent (Ackermann 2015).
The Pakistani case is more complicated as sources simultaneously outline tacit
consent to drone strikes by the country’s military leaders and open condemnation by its
political leaders (McNeal 2014, 697–8; Aslam 2011, 318; Zaidi 2011). Pakistan’s trajectory
illustrates an important observation: it may be opportune for a state to protest in public, while
the use of force is consented to behind closed doors. The status of consent is even more
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difficult to ascertain in Somalia, a state that has been lacking a central government since the
early 1990s. Although there are only few reliable sources to be found, some suggest that
Somali government authorities and parliamentarians have occasionally issued statements of
support on the matter, while members of civil society have expressed concern about potential
civilian casualties (Pelton 2011). As US practice indicates, “host” state consent and the
connected determination whether the host state is “unable” to exert control over its territory,
provides for murky instead of clear-cut legal grounds.
In terms of the second practical impediment of the “unwilling or unable” test: how is
it possible to determine if a state is “unwilling or unable” in the face of state disintegration?
Are state authorities that are not in full control of their state’s territory to be automatically
counted as unable? Does it matter whether they purposely did not fulfil their responsibilities?
And if there are several parties with contested authority claims, who should be considered as
the main party whose unwillingness or inability has to be determined to justify the potential
use of force? All of these open questions point to a wide grey area inhibiting the practical
utility of the “unwilling or unable” test. I will come back to these questions and demonstrate
their problematic answers in my subsequent case study of interventions against the ISIS in
Syria.
The “Unable and Unwilling” Formula in State and Policy Practice
Despite these challenges, the “unwilling or unable” test predates post-9/11 practice, although
it has since gained traction. The most prominent cases of intervening states to have referred
to the test are Turkey against the PKK in northern Iraq (repeatedly since the mid-1990s),
Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon (late 1970s-early 1980s, 2006), the United States against
Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia (ongoing since 2001), the Russian
Federation against Chechen rebels in Georgia (summer 2002), and Kenya against Al-Shabaab
15
in Somalia (2011) (Deeks 2012, 549–50; Scharf 2013, 204–5; Reinold 2011, 252–84; Ahmed
2013, 3). A brief comparison of these usages reveals that they only triggered limited and
restrained reactions by the international community. In the case of Russia’s 2002 air strikes in
Georgia (Security Council 2002), for example, only three actors – Georgia itself, the US, and
the Council of Europe—issued statements opposing the use-of-force, while the vast majority
of states remained silent (General Assembly and Security Council 2002; Myers 2002;
Council of Europe, Parliamentary Assembly 2002; Ruys 2010, 465–6). Similar observations
can be made with regard to other state usages of the test, leading some studies to suggest that
“in the area of self-defense, many incidents fail to elicit much of an international response,
which could be interpreted as an indicator of legal uncertainty or as tacit acquiescence”
(Reinold 2011, 257). Presuming that these state non-reactions count as consent still
represents too early a conclusion as “true” acquiescence depends above all on how long states
maintain their silence (MacGibbon 1954, 144; Peters 2015).
The “unwilling or unable” formula has gained traction through being put into regular
practice by both the Bush and the Obama administrations. Legal advisers of both
administrations, John B. Bellinger and Harold Koh, have explicitly referred to the “unwilling
or unable” reasoning in prominent speeches (Bellinger 2006; Koh 2010). During President
Obama’s tenure, the test has consistently been used as a legal justification for the
administration’s policy of interventions in the form of targeted killings outside established
theatres of conflict; in other words, when the US has used military force on the territories of
states with whom it is not at war (Brennan 2012; US Department of Justice 2013, 2).
Moreover, in September 2014, the US also provided official endorsement of the test through
referencing it in relation to the expansion of airstrikes against IS targets in Syria in official
correspondence (Security Council 2014d), something I will turn to in more detail now.
16
Intervention against ISIS in Syria: “Unwilling or Unable”?
Since August 2014, a variety of states acting as part of a US-led coalition or independently
have intervened militarily in the form of airstrikes against ISIS on both Iraqi and Syrian
territory. Interventions on Iraqi territory have been uncontroversial on legal grounds as the
country formally requested military assistance of the UN membership in late June 2014
(Security Council 2014a, 2). The US-led international coalition against ISIS has conducted
air strikes on Iraqi territory since August 2014 and has since reached a certain level of
formalization comprising approximately 60 states with varying contributions.
On Syrian territory, interventions against ISIS targets led by the US, actively
cooperating with Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and with Qatari
support, have started on 22 September 2014. These air strikes have been framed as collective
self-defense on behalf of the Iraq, who requested the United States to strike ISIS sites and
military strongholds “outside Iraq’s borders,” without explicitly mentioning that strikes were
supposed to occur on Syrian territory (Security Council 2014c). The US has explicitly
referred to Syria and the “unwilling or unable” formula in this context (Security Council
2014d).
Across the second half of 2015, military interventions of individual states against non-state
targets in Syria have multiplied. As of October 2016, seven further states have conducted air
strikes on Syrian territory as part of the US-led coalition (Turkey, France, Australia, Canada,
the United Kingdom, Belgium and the Netherlands),5 while the Russian Federation has
intervened militarily after having received a request by Syrian authorities (Security Council
2015d, 4). After the November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris linked to ISIS, France, the UK
and Germany have put forward additional broad individual/collective (preemptive) self-
5 Germany also participates in the US-led coalition, but does not fly airstrikes.
17
defense arguments to justify their interventions (Deutscher Bundestag 2015; House of
Commons 2015; Peters 2015).6
The UK and Germany were also able to refer to unanimous SCR 2249 of 20
November 2015 to legitimise actions. SCR 2249 does not, however, authorize interventions
against ISIS in Syria with reference to chapter VII of the UN Charter. The key operative
clause 5 reads:
Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary
measures, in compliance with international law, in particular with the United
Nations Charter, as well as international human rights, refugee and
humanitarian law, on the territory under control of ISIL also known as
Da’esh…” (Security Council 2015f, operative clause 5, emphasis added).
By referring to standing international law and using “calls upon” rather than “authorizes” or
“decides,” the resolution remains ambiguous as to whether it provides a legal basis for
intervention against ISIS targets on Syrian territory. While the UK and Germany have
construed it as such, legal scholars are doubtful on this matter (Akande and Milanovic 2015).
In the following section, I summarize arguments provided by intervening states as well as
other states’ reactions to these interventions, paying special attention to whether these
explicitly or implicitly evoked the “unwilling or unable” formula or in how far they referred
to other legal theories, in particular “host” state consent and the attribution standard. I mainly
study state arguments in the context of debates at the Security Council from September 2014
– December 2015. This exploratory case can therefore help in ascertaining the current
discursive standing of the “unwilling or unable” test although developments in 2015 have
clearly shown that this is a moving target.
6 Both the UK and German parliaments voted on participating in the military interventions against ISIS targets in Syria,
acting upon requests by France and the French invocation of the EU Treaty clause on mutual defense.
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Debates about ISIS in Syria and Interventions on Syrian Territory at the Security Council:
September 2014 – December 2015
In late August 2014, the US authorized surveillance flights over Syria, with a
particular focus on the Iraqi border, which were seen as a step towards military intervention
against ISIS targets in Syria (Security Council Report 2014c). The first Security Council
debate to include substantial references to the possibility of intervening military against ISIS
in Syria was held on 19 September 2014 on “the situation concerning Iraq” at a ministerial
level. Although the topic was Iraq, more than half of the 40 states on the speakers’ list also
referred to the Syrian conflict. 7 Up until mid-December 2015, there was one further
ministerial debate dealing with the issue of ISIS at the Security Council (Security Council
2015d), while some states also made statements after the vote on S/RES/2249 (Security
Council 2015e). I will consider these two debates in chronological order.
September 2014
At the ministerial level debate on 19 September 2014, there was much discussion
about whether treating Iraq and Syria as separate situations in the fight against ISIS was still
feasible (Security Council Report 2014a; Security Council 2014b, 24). On 8 September, US
President Obama had already announced that his government’s strategy to “degrade and
destroy” ISIS may include an expansion of the air campaign to Syria (Obama 2014). The gist
of this statement was underlined by US Secretary of State John Kerry, who, speaking at
debate stated: “In the face of this sort of evil, we have only one option to confront it with a
holistic, global campaign that is committed and capable of degrading and destroying this
terrorist threat and ensuring that ISIL cannot find safe haven in Iraq, Syria or elsewhere”
7 This choice did not escape the notice of the Syrian delegation: “Some speakers today have gone beyond the agenda item
under consideration, which is the situation in Iraq. That is what is on the agenda” (quoted in Security Council 2014b, 43).
19
(Security Council 2014b, 7). This point was echoed in similar terms by several foreign
ministers, including the Iranian, French, Iraqi, Turkish and Saudi officials (Security Council
2014b). On 22 September, the US expanded its airstrikes to targets in Syria. This course of
action, described as “necessary and proportionate actions in Syria” after having determined
that “the government of the state where the threat is located is unwilling or unable to prevent
the use of its territory for such attacks” was reported to the Security Council on 23 September
(Security Council 2014d emphasis added).
This intervention was not discussed at the Council. This is remarkable because the US
had invited the Council membership and interested states for an open debate on the topic of
foreign terrorist fighters on 24 September 2014. Given the close temporal proximity to the
start of airstrikes against targets in Syria, one could have expected states to use this
opportunity for some sort of statement on the occasion. But only two states, Australia and
Estonia, referred to the ongoing strikes against ISIS in Syria and both references, albeit brief,
can be characterized as supportive. Apart from an oblique remark by Russian foreign minister
Sergey Lavrov, not even Syria addressed the intervention on its territory directly (Security
Council 2014e, 40).
A number of public statements were offered outside the Council. The United
Kingdom spoke in firm support of US action, while the US regional partners issued
statements noting their involvement that, however, did not explicitly cite the US. Speaking
against the legal viability of the “unwilling or unable” test, Russia “note[d] that such actions
can be carried out only within the framework of international law. This implies not a formal
unilateral notification of the strikes, but the existence of explicit consent of the Syrian
government or a relevant decision by the UN Security Council” (Russian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs 2014).
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From September 2014 to June 2015, many states remained silent on the matter. Some
legal scholars, such as Deeks, interpreted this as a “silent acquiescence” of the legality of air
strikes and therefore, by association, a silent condonement of the “unwilling or unable”
formula (2014), while sceptical scholars such as Heller, instead point to the continued lack of
public state approval (2014).
As of June 2015, a total of eight states had participated in the air campaign on Syrian
territory, compared to eight states in Iraq (Mullen 2014; Drennan 2014). Moreover, the make-
up of these coalitions was almost entirely different with the US being the only joined factor:
while the Syrian campaign was composed of regional partners, Western states dominated the
campaign in Iraq. These participation differences illustrated a certain level of discomfort
when it comes to the legality of the “unwilling or unable” formula.
Still, a June 2015 summary of state practice on the matter, for example, outlined the
position of the Dutch government whose foreign minister states: “… it is now sufficiently
established in fact that there are continuous attacks from Syria against Iraq, directed by the
ISIS headquarters in Raqqah, Syria. … It is also evident that Syrian authorities are incapable
of stopping these armed attacks” (Ruys, Verlinden, and Ferro 2015, 26 emphasis added).
Canada had likewise referred to the “unwilling or unable” formula upon joining the US-led
coalition in March 2015, becoming the first Western state apart from the US to extend its
operations into Syria:
In accordance with the inherent rights of individual and collective self-defense
reflected in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, States must be able to act
in self-defense when the Government of the State where a threat is located in
unwilling or unable to prevent attacks emanating from its territory (Security
Council 2015a emphasis added).
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However, from February 2016, Canada ended its participation in air strikes both in Iraq and
Syria, following the election of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This move can be
associated both with a lack of belief both in their effectiveness and, potentially, overall
legitimacy.
July – December 2015
As noted in the introduction to this section, by December 2015, Australia, France,
Canada, Turkey, and the United Kingdom had joined the US-led coalition against ISIS in
Syria and communicated this intent in letters to the Security Council. In addition to Canada,
Australia and Turkey confirmed that Syria has been “unwilling or unable” to counter the
threat posed by ISIS (Security Council 2015b; Security Council 2015c). France and the UK,
instead, referred to individual and collective self-defense under article 51 of the UN Charter,
only, to justify their participation in military intervention, without any reference to the
attribution standard or even the “unwilling or unable” formula. In analysing statements at the
September 2015 ministerial level debate, I will therefore pay particular attention to how the
Syrian national authorities figure in state reasoning.
With 66 member states on the speaker’s list, as well as remarks by four regional
organizations, this provides a good overview on how state perspectives may have changed
(Security Council 2015d). It is important to note that not a single state mentioned the
“unwilling or unable” formula explicitly at the debate. In order to assess in how far the
formula is supported, I paid attention to whether a state spoke in favour or opposed to
military intervention against ISIS targets in Syria. Support of this intervention or of using
military means in Syria would signal an at least implicit approval of arguments as to its legal
standing.
22
Out of 66 states, 14 spoke favourably and mentioned the US-led coalition as an
important means in the fight against ISIS, while many speakers in this group also take some
part in the coalition themselves (e.g. Australia in Security Council 2015d, 69). A further 12
states spoke in favour of military means in counter-terrorism in more general terms,
frequently however highlighting how these can and should only ever be part of the
international solution (e.g. Uruguay in Security Council 2015d, 58). 13 speakers included
critical remarks about atrocities committed by the Al-Assad regime in their remarks (e.g.
Luxemburg in Security Council 2015d, 44). In the majority of cases, however, these were not
connected to the potential of military intervention to counter terrorist threats. Moreover, two
sets of seven states either voiced their opposition to military solutions to what they perceive
as political problems or highlighted non-interference and respect for national sovereignty
(e.g. Venezuela in Security Council 2015d, 16). 23 statements did not include any reference
to military intervention or the use of force. Overall, state statements, compared to those made
in 2014, indicate a growing basis of support for military intervention against terrorist targets
in Syria and therefore, at least some more implicit consent to the “unwilling or unable”
formula. As more states have intervened on Syrian territory and these states have either used
the “unwilling or unable” formula explicitly in their notifications or have implicitly condoned
its reasoning by participating in US-led interventions, the fact that many states still remain
silent on the matter potentially gives more weight to “tacit acquiescence” arguments.
Considering the content of arguments provided by France, the UK and Germany,
moreover, speaks for a broad interpretation of individual and collective self-defence under
article 51 of the UN Charter. Although their interventions still happen on Syrian territory,
they do not concern themselves with the attribution standard or the response undertaken by
the Syrian authorities at all. For some parliamentarians at the German Parliament’s debate,
debating the legality of the intervention was even construed as a “nitpicking” matter in the
23
face of the ISIS threat (Peters 2015). If these interpretations of article 51 hold, its scope
would be decidedly broader than in previous practice.
Moreover, ignoring the Syrian authorities, in these cases, is also clearly connected to
them being deemed illegitimate rather than unwilling or unable. I consider these questions
and the Syrian response in some detail in the next section.
Syria under Assad: Willing but Unable?
A key weakness of Deeks’ study on the “unwilling or unable” formula has been her
lack of attention paid to the “target” state — this section will therefore consider Syria’s
reaction as well as how it was assessed according to the “unwilling or unable” formula.
Initially, Syria had stated that it would consider US attacks on targets in Syria as an
act of aggression (Security Council Report 2014c). However, when US strikes started in
September 2014, it did not protest formally and instead, referred to having received prior
notice of the strikes (Security Council Report 2014d). Even that simple statement contains
some uncertainty as Syria held that it was notified by the US delegation to the UN, while
other sources point to prior notice being given by the Iraqi government (Security Council
Report 2014d; AP 2014). In light of applying the “unwilling or unable” formula, it is
noticeable that the US contradicted giving any official notification to the Syrian regime, so as
to avoid the semblance of “formal” coordination, arguing that “they had provided only a
general warning about the possibility of military action” (Morello and Gearan 2014). Was
Syria arguably willing to cooperate and can therefore only have been found to be unable?
Syria has contradicted this latter assessment at the Security Council, speaking in late
September 2014:
My country’s Government is an active participant in combatting the terrorist groups ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra. We have undertaken those activities unilaterally within Syria over the past three years. We always emphasize the importance of counter-terrorism efforts, putting an end to terrorist financing
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and combating terrorists who come to our country from other countries (Security Council 2014b, 43).
Of course, the Assad regime has worked with a broad and untenable definition of
terrorism since the Syrian conflict started, which encompasses not only those groups that
appear on the Security Council’s sanctions lists but also all groups opposed to the regime.
While Assad and the members of the Syrian delegation therefore like to portray themselves
as “a bulwark against the rise of terrorism,” actual confrontations between government force
and ISIS have been scarce (Security Council Report 2014b). Rather than being “unwilling or
unable”, the Syrian government appears to have been deemed a bit of both.
Syria may not have protested at the time as air strikes against ISIS are opportune for
the Assad government, while it could not openly consent to such strikes given the overall
political situation (Goodman 2014). At the second SC ministerial-level debate, Syria
characterised the interventions as “a flagrant violation of Syria’s national sovereignty” and
instead hailed Russian intervention, to which it had consented, as the best way forward
(Security Council 2015d, 30). This, therefore, constitutes a clear dismissal of the “unwilling
or unable” formula from a “target” state.
Conclusion: Similarities and Differences across the “Unwilling or Unable”/ “Manifestly
Failing” Formulas
This chapter aimed at comparing the “unwilling or unable” formula across two contexts of its
application: the responsibility to protect and counter-terrorism. Although the growing
international support for military intervention against ISIS in Syria appears to indicate
implicit consent to the “unwilling or unable” formula, this remains disputed, especially in
light of “target state” opinion. Given this development, this chapter aimed at providing more
25
clarity on the formula itself, its legal standing and how relevant it has been in state practice
across R2P and counter-terrorist contexts.
Although there are clear differences in terms of how force is used and the terms
employed, this analysis has identified four open questions that are similar across the two
contexts. These questions are significant as they highlight the problematic nature of the
“unwilling or unable” formula as a test to inform intervention decisions.
First, determinations of “unwilling or unable” and “manifestly failing” states both
work with uncertain criteria. This is the major and most problematic similarity. Without such
clear criteria, it is not only impossible to verify how states or the Security Council have come
to their assessments, thereby making this type of assessment reproducible under other
circumstances, but it also makes their decision-making incomprehensible and therefore
unaccountable. Given the gravity use-of-force decisions should be attributed with, this
increased intransparency is concerning, especially in the context of use-of-force decisions in
response to non-state threats. Here, not only are the criteria for “unwilling or unable”
decision-making unclear, there has also been no designated authority making these decisions
as they are argued to fall within the scope of the right to self-defence. As a consequence,
determinations have invariably been made by the intervening state, who is unlikely
positioned in an ideal information environment to make them.
Second, although there are clear differences between the terms “unwilling” and
“unable” as well as between the potential reasons that have led to a state “manifestly failing,”
both scenarios have been worked with interchangeably in practice. This is problematic
because “unwilling” and “unable” point to very different contexts that require an equally
different response in order to lead to a situation in which the state can sustainably meet its
responsibilities and obligations. Third, although the “unwilling or unable” formula was
ostensibly changed to “manifestly failing” in the World Summit Outcome on account of the
26
subjective judgment the former entailed, it appears as if that subjectivity is shared by both
terms — at least, it remains practically unclear how “manifestly failing” is anything other
than determining a state’s inability and unwillingness in disguise. Lastly, neither “manifestly
failing” nor “unwilling or unable” has been applied consistently across the UN membership.
While it is, at least, clear in the case of R2P, who can use these terms inconsistently, the
“unwilling or unable” formula has served to justify a growing number of unilateral uses of
force outside the Security Council framework (Bode 2016). This latter development is not
only threatening to the general prohibition on the use-of-force as enshrined in article 2(4) of
the UN Charter but also to even a “thin” understanding of the international rule of law.
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